Gold is approaching its all-time high as the market awaits major
With the strong recovery of the US economy, market expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have gradually weakened. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to a three-month high on Monday, which usually puts pressure on gold prices. The US dollar index rose 3.6% in October, its best monthly performance since April 2022, making gold less attractive to overseas buyers. Although it is facing some pressure at present, the uncertainty of the general election may curb selling activity, and any action may have a greater impact on gold prices.
In terms of geopolitics, tensions between Israel and Iran remain the focus of market attention. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagae said that Iran will not give up its right to respond to Israel's "aggression", emphasizing that under international law, countries that have been aggressed have the right to fight back. This statement may exacerbate market uneasiness and drive demand for safe-haven assets.
The Israeli Defense Forces completed a "precision strike" against Iran on October 26. Although the attack was small in scale, it still caused market concerns about the future situation. The Iranian military claimed to have successfully defended against the Israeli attack. This tension may continue to affect market sentiment in the coming weeks, and thus affect gold prices.
The strength of the dollar makes gold more expensive in dollar terms, which has dampened the willingness of overseas investors to buy. The market is confident in the strong performance of the US economy, especially in the job market and consumer spending, which has driven the further appreciation of the dollar.
The policy direction of the Federal Reserve will have a profound impact on the gold market. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to discuss future interest rate strategies at its policy meeting on November 6-7. According to market expectations, the possibility of a rate cut remains, but market expectations for a rate cut have gradually weakened due to the strong performance of economic data. Federal Reserve officials expressed optimism about the economic outlook in recent speeches, believing that the current unemployment rate and inflation levels are within an acceptable range. This optimism may lead to changes in market expectations for future rate cuts, which will affect gold prices.
Because U.S. Treasury yields rose and the dollar strengthened, while investors were waiting for a series of heavyweight U.S. economic data and risk events to be released this week for clues about the Fed's interest rate outlook, but the uncertainty of the U.S. election and concerns about the geopolitical situation still provided safe-haven support for gold prices, so gold fluctuated upward on Monday. After the opening of today's market, the price of gold has risen strongly. At present, the short-term upward trend of gold remains good, so today investors continue to pay attention to the 2740 area of the 1-hour upward trend line support below, and continue to go long on gold after gold pulls back and stabilizes.
The JOLTs job vacancy data for October to be released today will become the focus of investors' attention. This data reflects the supply and demand situation in the labor market. At the same time, the US ADP employment data, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, and non-farm employment report will be released this week. These data will directly affect the market's expectations of the Fed's future policies.
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