3.20 Focus on the long and short battle of the Federal Reserve!!On Wednesday (March 19), the spot gold price continued to fluctuate at a high level during the Asian and European sessions, hitting a record high of $3,045/ounce during the session, and then fell slightly to around $3,029. The market focus is highly concentrated on the upcoming Fed's March interest rate decision.
Fundamentals: 1. The struggle between risk aversion demand and policy expectations
2. Rising geopolitical risk premiums
3. Trump's tariff remarks sparked concerns about economic recession
4. Fed policy expectations dominate short-term fluctuations
Technical aspects: Long and short game in high-level fluctuations
4-hour structure chart:
Bollinger Band pattern: upper track 3044.86, middle track 3031.24, lower track 3017.63, the current quote 3030.49 is close to the middle track, indicating a short-term balance of long and short forces. If the price stands firm on the middle track, it is expected to test the upper track (3044) again; if it falls below the middle track, it may seek support from the lower track (3017)
Moving average support: The 100-day moving average (2928.75) and the 200-day moving average (2903.27) form a long-term support band, and the price difference with the current quotation exceeds US$100, further verifying that gold is in a strong cycle.
Resistance level: 3050 3080 3100
Support level: 3018 3000 2980
Goldinvesting
Open your eyes and watch the bear dance!Bros, I have clearly pointed out in the last article update that gold will continue to rise and hit the 3030-3040 area, and the highest will only reach around 3040; gold has risen to this area as expected, and has reached a maximum of around 3038.
I have doubled my short position in gold around 3038; gold has risen sharply due to fundamental support and has seriously deviated from the technical side, so the faster gold rises, the more dangerous it is! After the market calms down, gold may experience a deep retracement.
So I’m looking forward to when the bears dance next! And I am always optimistic about gold falling back to the 3015-3005 area!
Trading means that everything has results and everything has feedback. I have been committed to market trading and trading strategy sharing, striving to improve the winning rate of trading and maximize profits. If you want to copy trading signals to make a profit, or master independent trading skills and thinking, you can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to copy trading strategies and signals
Has gold peaked? Long or short?Gold 1-hour chart has fallen from a high level, so it is difficult for gold to rise directly without news support in the short term. You can continue to short gold after it rebounds. If the Fed's interest rate decision does not rise sharply, then the idea of shorting gold at a high level will continue. Gold rebounds to observe 3045 pressure level
3.19 Gold continues to peak, waiting for the Fed's interest rateThe gold market continued to rise strongly after opening yesterday, reaching the highest point of 3038 and then consolidating at a high level, with no obvious adjustment in the middle. Although we determined that the market would surge, it was still stronger than expected. The daily line finally closed with a big positive line with a slight shadow line. After this pattern ended, the bulls in today's market are still there.
Resistance level: 3045 3050
On 3.19, gold continued to fluctuate upward after breaking throuAs a safe-haven asset, gold has attracted more buying amid global political tensions: the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the continued strikes by the United States against the Houthi armed forces in the Red Sea region may affect the energy supply chain. The uncertainty of the ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has led to a high risk aversion in the market. The increase in domestic political risks in the United States may affect market confidence and push up gold demand.
The rise in gold on March 18 is in line with my thinking. Obviously, the US market was suppressed at 3028. After a short-term retracement, it further broke upward. It is expected to continue the upward trend at night and see the suppression of 3044.
The weekly and monthly lines are concerned about the upper track position, and even diverge upward under the impetus of market sentiment. The specific position cannot be determined because there is no reference point, but it is only necessary to follow the market trend to do it, and the transaction is relatively simple. From a technical perspective, the upper track of the weekly line is 3030, and the upper track of the monthly line is 3050. This is the position that needs attention. In addition, the previous two waves of rises have gone through 4 positive monthly K lines, and then closed with a negative correction.
Support level
$2994; $2982; $2950
Resistance level
$3025; $3050; $3080
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Gold bulls are going crazy, need to be careful at this time
Gold bulls are too crazy and there is no chance of a pullback. So when the market is too hot, you have to be careful. You need to be cautious when doing long positions at high levels, and beware of gold falling back after a surge and starting to make a sharp adjustment.So at this position I think shorting would be better
3.18 Risk aversion and expectations of rate cuts support gold toIntraday data analysis:
Gold hit a new record high and maintained an upward trend. For the support below, pay attention to the upper rail of the 4-hour Bollinger band at $3010, followed by the integer position of $3000, which is also near the high point of gold prices on Monday; for the pressure above, pay attention to the upper rail of the weekly Bollinger band at $3028, which is also the upper rail position of the current 4-hour Bollinger band. If the gold price continues to break upward, the upper space can pay attention to the upper rail of the monthly Bollinger band at $2950. The 5-day moving average and the MACD indicator cross upward, and the KDJ and RSI indicators cross upward. The short-term technical side is bullish.
Gold intraday reference: Supported by risk aversion expectations and interest rate cut expectations, gold maintains an upward trend and gold prices hit a new record high. In terms of operation, it is recommended to treat it with a volatile mindset. Pay attention to the support below at $3010, followed by $3000. Pay attention to the breakthrough near $3028 for the pressure above. If it stands firm here, you can continue to pay attention to $3050.
3.18 Gold Refreshes $3,000, Be Cautious About Backtesting RisksIn 4 hours, the main trend is continuous rising and breaking rising; the main trend is anti-falling; in terms of indicators, the stochastic indicator crosses downward, mainly empty, but the pattern is anti-falling. At the same time, the MACD double lines are glued together, without crosses. Therefore, the cross of the stochastic indicator is just a correction method for 4 hours to change time for space; the horizontal support position is at the support position of 2980 and 2955.
Short-term operation: SELL: 3000
TP1: 2990
TP2: 2980
TP3: 2970
As usual, we will update regularly throughout the day and tell you how we manage active ideas and settings. Thank you for your likes, comments and attention, we are very grateful!
Last chance to short gold💡Today, gold hit a low of around 2980 during its decline. Obviously, gold's decline has not reached its peak! There is still demand for gold to continue to retreat.
💡At present, gold has rebounded to above 2998 again, but gold has not broken through the 3005-3010 zone during multiple rebound tests. The upper space has been compressed smaller and smaller, and the bullish momentum has been largely consumed. Gold is expected to seek a breakthrough downward;
💡In the process of multiple rebounds, the momentum of the rebound has gradually weakened, the bull market confidence above 3000 is not strong, the confidence of bulls is not firm, and after the profit realization and selling psychology gradually gain the upper hand, gold is likely to have a flash crash!
📉So we can short gold in the 3000-3010 zone! The first target: 2985-2975, followed by 2965-2955
📞Trading means that everything has results and everything has feedback. I have been committed to market trading and trading strategy sharing, striving to improve the winning rate of trading and maximize profits. If you want to copy trading signals to make a profit, or master independent trading skills and thinking, you can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to copy trading strategies and signals
3.17 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsIn the early Asian session on Monday (March 17), spot gold fluctuated at a high level and is currently trading at $2,990.02/oz. Spot gold once broke through the important $3,000 mark during trading last Friday, reaching a high of $3,004.82/oz, setting a new historical high. Investors chased this historic surge in safe-haven assets, seeking to avoid the economic uncertainty caused by US President Trump's tariff war, and then fell slightly due to profit-taking, closing at $2,988.12/oz.
Analysis of intraday gold short-term operations:
Gold is still in a three-month upward channel, and the relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart remains around 70, indicating that the bullish tendency is still intact.
Once the gold price stabilizes above $3,000/oz (integer level, midpoint of the ascending channel) and confirms that this level is support, then $3,060/oz (upper limit of the ascending channel) may be set as the next bullish target, and the next bullish target is $3,100/oz (integer level).
On the other hand, if gold fails to turn $3,000/oz into support, technical buyers may be frustrated. In this case, $2,920/oz (20-day simple moving average, lower limit of the ascending channel) and $2,900/oz (round level, static level) may be seen as the next support level for gold
Resistance: 2998 3010 3020
Support: 2980 2965 2950
3.17 Gold short-term may extend low and longLast week, the gold market opened at 2912.9 at the beginning of the week, and then fell back at the beginning of the week. After the weekly low reached 2880, the market rose strongly due to risk aversion. After breaking the previous historical high of 2957, the market accelerated upward. On Friday, the weekly high reached 3005.2, and then the market consolidated. The weekly line finally closed at 2986.1, and the market closed with a big positive line with a lower shadow slightly longer than the upper shadow. After this pattern ended, the market continued to look at the bullish demand point after the adjustment at the beginning of the week. After the breakout of 2940 and 2958 last week, the stop loss was followed up at 2956.
Short-term operation suggestions:
SELL: 2995 target 2980 70 stop loss 10
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Target 🎯: 2680 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental, Positioning, Overall Outlook:
╰┈➤XAU/EUR "The Gold vs Euro" Metal Market is currently experiencing a bearish trend,., driven by several key factors.
╰┈➤Fundamental Analysis
Interest Rates: Fed at 3-3.5%, ECB at 2.5%—U.S. yield advantage pressures gold, ECB easing weakens EUR—neutral.
Inflation: U.S. PCE 2.6%, Eurozone 2.8%, Japan 2.5%—global inflation boosts gold’s hedge appeal—bullish.
Demand: Central banks (e.g., China, Russia) buy ~8M oz. in 2025; European ETF inflows up—bullish.
Geopolitics: U.S.-China tariffs, Russia-Ukraine tensions—safe-haven demand rises—bullish.
EUR Strength: ECB dovishness vs. Fed stability weakens EUR—bullish for XAU/EUR.
╰┈➤Macroeconomic Factors
U.S.: PMI 50.4, jobless claims up—USD softens, gold gains—bullish.
Eurozone: PMI 46.2, growth stagnant—EUR weakens—bullish.
Global: China 4.5%, Japan 1%—slow growth, risk-off favors gold—bullish.
Commodities: Oil $70.44 (U.S./OPEC)—stable, neutral.
Trump Policies: Tariffs (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China)—EUR weakens, gold rises—bullish.
╰┈➤Commitments of Traders (COT) Data
Speculators: Net long ~50,000 contracts (global futures, down from 60,000)—cautious bullishness.
Hedgers: Net short ~60,000—stable, locking in highs.
Open Interest: ~120,000 contracts—sustained global interest, mildly bullish.
╰┈➤Market Sentiment Analysis
Retail: 55% short (global X posts)—contrarian upside risk—bullish.
Institutional: Bullish long-term (e.g., $3,000 XAU/USD targets), short-term caution—neutral.
Corporate: Global miners hedge at 2,750-2,800 EUR—neutral.
Social Media Trends: Mixed—bearish to 2,650 EUR, some see buy zone—neutral.
╰┈➤Positioning Analysis
Speculative: Longs target 2,750-2,800, shorts aim for 2,650-2,600 (global consensus).
Retail: Shorts at 2,710-2,720—squeeze risk if price rises.
Institutional: Balanced, favoring inflation-driven gold gains.
╰┈➤Quantitative Analysis
SMAs: 50-day ~2,650, 200-day ~2,500—price above both, bullish.
RSI: 52 (daily)—neutral, flexible for moves.
Bollinger: 2,670-2,730—price near upper band, breakout potential.
Fibonacci: 61.8% from 2,800-2,400 at 2,686—support holds.
Volatility: 1-month IV 11%—±30 EUR daily range.
╰┈➤Intermarket Analysis
EUR/USD: Below 1.0500—EUR weakness boosts XAU/EUR—bullish.
DXY: 106.00, softening—supports gold—bullish.
XAU/USD: 2910—aligned with XAU/EUR rise—bullish.
Equities: SPX500 5990, stable—neutral.
Bonds: U.S. 3.8% vs. Eurozone 2.2%—yield gap weakens EUR—bullish.
╰┈➤News and Events Analysis
Recent: Trump tariffs (Feb 23-25) and Russia-Ukraine talks—risk-off lifts gold—bullish.
Upcoming: U.S. PCE (Feb 28)—hot data could lift USD/EUR, pressuring XAU/EUR; soft data boosts gold—mixed.
Impact: Bullish short-term, PCE reaction pivotal.
╰┈➤Next Trend Move
Technical: Support 2,686-2,650, resistance 2,750-2,800. Below 2,686 targets 2,600; above 2,750 aims for 2,850.
Short-Term (1-2 Weeks): Dip to 2,650 if PCE strengthens USD/EUR; up to 2,800 if risk-off persists.
Medium-Term (1-3 Months): Range 2,600-2,900, driven by tariffs/inflation.
╰┈➤Future Prediction
Bullish: 2,850-2,900 by Q2 2025 if EUR weakens further (EUR/USD to 1.03), tariffs escalate, or PCE softens.
Bearish: 2,600-2,550 if PCE boosts USD/EUR (DXY to 107) or risk-on emerges.
Prediction: Mildly bearish short-term to 2,650, then bullish to 2,850 by mid-2025
╰┈➤Overall Summary Outlook
XAU/EUR at 2,700.00 benefits from bullish drivers (global inflation, geopolitics, EUR weakness) but faces short-term risks from USD/EUR strength (PCE). COT and sentiment suggest consolidation, with quant signals favoring upside if support holds. Short-term dip to 2,650 possible, medium-term rise to 2,900 likely with risk-off momentum.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
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As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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3.14 Risk aversion and interest rate cuts have pushed gold to thGold is supported by risk aversion and interest rate cut expectations, and the overall trend remains upward. Short-term technical aspects also show that the advantages of the bulls have been strengthened.
On the daily chart, gold has set a new record high and performed very strongly. For the support below gold, radicals pay attention to the upper rail position of the daily and weekly Bollinger bands at $2,983, which is also the low point of the gold price falling back in the morning. Secondly, the low point of the fall after the intraday high in the US market on Thursday was $2,976. The continued fall suggests that the gold price has the risk of adjustment. Pay attention to the previous historical high of $2,956; for the pressure above gold, pay attention to the breakthrough of the integer position of $3,000. If it breaks through and stands firm here, it will not guess the top. The 5-day moving average is golden cross upward, the KDJ and RSI indicators are golden cross upward, and the MACD indicator forms a dead cross, indicating that the advantages of the bulls in the short-term technical aspect are further strengthened.
Resistance points: 2,990, 3,000, 3,010
Support points: 80, 70, 56
Gold is about to plummet, double short gold!Brothers, gold accelerated to around 2985, but it could not cross 2990. The closer it is to the 3000 mark, the greater the resistance it faces. After the news is digested by the market to a certain extent, it is difficult for gold to have enough momentum to continue to break through the 2990-3000 market psychological mark in the short term, so a retracement will inevitably follow!
The accelerated squeeze of gold has been separated from the technical side. After the news returns to normal, gold will inevitably have a technical retracement demand, so we can boldly short gold again in the 2985-2990 area! Tomorrow, Friday, will definitely be a turning point. Gold will at least retrace to the 2950-2940 zone tomorrow, and may even extend to the area around 2935.
So in short-term trading, I still insist on using double trading lots to short gold at 2985-2990! Looking forward to making a profit of 400-500 pips in the short term!Trading means that everything has results and everything has feedback. I have been committed to market trading and trading strategy sharing, striving to improve the winning rate of trading and maximize profits. If you want to copy trading signals to make a profit, or master independent trading skills and thinking, you can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to copy trading strategies and signals
3.14 Gold peaks againGold is forming higher highs while forming an ascending triangle, which will be confirmed if the price of gold closes above the record high of $2,982/oz on a daily basis. If the price of gold breaks the record high, then the price of gold will target the round mark of $2,990/oz. If the buyers conquer the latter, a test of the psychological barrier of $3,000/oz will be inevitable.
The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is moving higher above 50, supporting the case for further upside in gold prices.
On the other hand, the price of gold has strong support at the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) of $2,914/oz. If the selling pressure intensifies, the price of gold will challenge the ascending trendline support of $2,893/oz. Failure to defend this level will accelerate the decline towards the psychological level of $2,850/oz.
Resistance 2980 2990 3000
Support 2950 2930 2900
As always, we will be updating regularly throughout the day and letting you know how we are managing active ideas and settings. Thank you all for your likes, comments, and attention, we really appreciate it!
3.13 Technical analysis of gold short-term operationGold market analysis:
, Gold hourly level: In the morning, it rose from 2932 to 2946, and fell back to 2932 from 2946 in the afternoon. It rose from 2932 to 2948 in the European session. From the trend of the Asian and European sessions, it can be seen that it may enter a certain range of back and forth consolidation; combined with the trend of the bottom of 2880 rising to 2948, it can be found that there is a similar pattern in early March. After a short-term continuous rise, it will enter the box oscillation for several hours, and then continue to rise in a short-term continuous rise, and then continue to enter the box oscillation; then combined with the yellow channel in the above figure, pay attention to the pressure of the upper rail 2951-53 tonight. If it is suppressed, it may fall back to 2932-30 repeatedly. The lower rail support is an ideal bullish point. It will move up to 2923-25 tonight, which is also the top and bottom conversion position. If it can be touched, it is necessary to continue to follow the bullish
Resistance point l: 2945 2955 2970
Support level: 2935 2920 2900
Traders, if you like this idea or you have your own opinion about it, please write it in the comments. I will be happy
3.13 Gold surges higher againGold technical analysis
It has fluctuated continuously for two weeks in the 2890 to 2930 area. It broke through the Asian session yesterday. Then the second crazy game of the previous high formed a double top prototype structure. The global risk aversion gradually receded. The only rise was the economic recession of the United States. In fact, you think too much about global buying orders. Regardless of the recent territorial expansion speech or various taxes, or even selling cards, the purpose is to make the US dollar strong again, and hope to continue global hegemony. Therefore, it is uncertain that all kinds of speeches in the middle of the night stimulate risk aversion. Gold is constantly falling and giving you a V back every day, which is to constantly cultivate your inertia. Falling is an opportunity, and buying in batches is profit. So today is very simple. If the weakness is below 2956, it is at most 2942 to 2947, which is a direct decline, not giving you a second chance to rush high, or quickly reaching a new high, making you feel that gold is bullish again, the world is chasing more, or low-level shorts are forced to chase more hedges, then the market will change quickly.
The short-term operation ideas are as follows:
Pressure: 2955------2975 Support: 2880-----2830
Traders, if you like this idea or you have your own opinion on it, please write it in the comments. I will be happy
3.13CPI is bullish, gold cautiously rises and falls in short terThe CPI data released in the evening was lower than expected, which is bullish for gold in the short term and continues to fluctuate during the day.
In the short-term 1-hour chart, according to 4, the price has risen above the directionless 20-period SMA and 100-period SMA, while the 200-period SMA is rising below the above short-term moving averages. At the same time, technical indicators have lost directional strength and turned slightly lower within the neutral level, predicting that gold prices may fall soon.
Short-term trading: short near 2935, stop loss 2945, take profit 2920/2915
I still have a short position, what about you?Bros, the recent trend of gold has been very painful. After falling to 2880, it was pulled back to the shock range, and neither the long nor the short positions continued. However, in the short term, the upper resistance is obviously in the 2925-2935 zone; relatively speaking, as gold fell below the 2900 and 2890 areas several times during the test of support, the support below is relatively weak.
In addition, the CPI data will be released in 2 hours. I think this CPI data is likely to boost the US dollar and suppress gold, but it is not ruled out that gold will rise and then fall.
So in terms of short-term trading, I prefer to short gold, and I still hold a short position in gold, and I hope that gold can retreat to the 2910-2900 zone as expected.
Bros, are you holding a short position like me?Trading means that everything has results and everything has feedback. I have been committed to market trading and trading strategy sharing, striving to improve the winning rate of trading and maximize profits. If you want to copy trading signals to make a profit, or master independent trading skills and thinking, you can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to copy trading strategies and signals
3.12 Gold shocks, waiting for CPIGold prices surged nearly 1% on Tuesday (March 11) as the dollar weakened and tariff wars triggered concerns about economic slowdown.
Gold continued to fluctuate in one hour, and gold continued to be shorted at high levels. Gold was under pressure near 2922 several times yesterday and began to fall. Gold was still under pressure at 2922 in the early trading and continued to be shorted at high levels. Gold can be shorted near 2920, but you have to pay attention today. If gold continues to resist falling, then gold may be accumulating momentum and may use data to attack. So if gold still does not fall quickly in the European session, then leave the market first and wait for data guidance.
Shorting gold is the way to make money!Brothers, after gold rebounded to around 2920, the rebound momentum gradually weakened, and the fluctuation range gradually narrowed. This shows that the upper resistance area of 2925-2935 is difficult to break through in a short time. Gold still has the need to retrace and gain momentum, and it is not difficult for gold to retreat to the 2905-2895 area.
So in terms of short-term trading, I insist on shorting gold in batches in the 2915-2925 area, and I expect gold to fall as expected, and the rich profits will also be taken.
Trading means that everything has results and everything has feedback. I have been committed to market trading and trading strategy sharing, striving to improve the winning rate of trading and maximize profits. If you want to copy trading signals to make a profit, or master independent trading skills and thinking, you can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to copy trading strategies and signals
3.12 Technical analysis of gold short-term operationGold Short-Term Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of gold shows that the price of gold remains below the currently flat 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which provides dynamic resistance near $2,910.00/oz. The longer-term moving averages continue to move upwards at levels well below the current gold price, suggesting that bulls remain in control in the long term. Meanwhile, technical indicators have turned down near their mid-lines, suggesting that gold prices may extend their corrective decline before finding new buying interest.
In the near term, the price of gold is at risk of continuing its decline as seen on the 4-hour chart. The 20-period SMA and the 100-period SMA provide resistance in the $2,910/oz area, while the bullish 200-period SMA hovers around $2,867/oz, providing support. Finally, technical indicators remain in negative territory, albeit with mixed strength. However, a break below the intraday low of $2,881.80/oz on March 4 could see the price of gold fall further.
Important support and resistance levels:
Support level: $2881.80/oz; $2867.10/oz; $2854.95/oz
Resistance level: $2910.00/oz; $2927.90/oz; $2941.40/oz