XAUUSD: A wonderful day for GOLDHave a nice day traders. GOLD price is trading with a range of 2016-2041 in the H4 frame. It is predicted that gold prices will continue to increase before gold prices decrease in 2016 💚
Goldinvestment
GOLD Monthly Study - Golden Cross in Recession!Huge volume and selling - but price held relatively well.
RSI in overbought territory.
With the FED anncouncing that they will continue to print away just like they have been for years, I'm speculating that we will have major upside for this commodity over macro longterm but thought i'd point out the retracements at these key levels.
Dotcom Bubble Crash and the 2007-2008 Banking & Mortgage Crisis had intese retracements before skyrocketing up again.
Golden cross forming once again. The last time we had the 50MA cross over the 100MA we dumped for approximately 14% before continuing on for a massive bull cycle.
We seem to possibly have the same scenario repeating here once again. 16 years later we are testing the same golden cross with RSI being in overbought territory and testing the ATH.
The same dump will bring us relatively close to the 21MA.
Buy the Dip strategy may prove to be effective once again, keep an eye on that 21 and 50MA areaas.
GOLD SUPER LONG-TERM SCENARIOS EXPLAINED GOLD is unstoppable right now and is soon to storm the 1800 key level.
The only question is- what we get to see:
1- An optimistic scenario, drawn with a green line, where there is a retest of support after a breakout towards 1900, and then a strong move up into the 2300/2500+ in 2-3 years.
OR
2-A pessimistic scenario, drawn with a red line, where the breakout turns out to be a false one and GOLD returns below the 1800 level and gets stuck in there for another accumulation period for another 5-10 years.
It is clear by now, that the general uptrend will continue and that a super long term outlook is certainly bullish, but just how bullish is a question for 8 trillion dollars, which is the current total gold market cap.
It is clear that the 1500 level is the new absolute bottom, and that we will never see gold cheaper than that again, so should gold choose the second scenario then buy near 1500-1600 level.(unless Earth isn't hit by a massive asteroid full of gold anytime soon)
An example of what trading will look like in a pessimistic scenario can be seen in the blue rectangle around the lower accumulation zone.
The fundamentals beyond the gold growth are the usual culprits: central banks printing money, fears of inflation, the increased demand for a safe haven other than dollar, negative rates and, possible stagflation.
There is a remote potential for the gold to come back as a funding vehicle, when people, companies and states will be borrowing and transacting in gold. That would have us see gold=10.000 and more.
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Wish you all good luck in your trading!
GOLD: A lower buy opportunity that may arise on the long term.Gold has been on a very aggressive rise since it broke the 1,380 long term 1W Resistance. Recently it made contact with the Higher High trend line of its 1M Channel Up (RSI = 73.372, MACD = 46.760, Highs/Lows = 196.7521). Undoubtedly we have entered a new long term multi year Bull Cycle but that doesn't mean that the uptrend won't be without lows. Long term traders should look for pull backs to take advantage of as dip-buying opportunities. In order to identify those we looked into the early 1W candles of the past Bull Cycle in 2000.
There are quite a few similarities of the 2000 Bull Cycle start with the current one. In the 2000s, the bear market bottom gave rise to a Golden Cross on 1W. That sustained the uptrend within the Channel Up until a new Higher High. Following that Higher High, Gold made a pull back to touch the 1W MA50 where it found support and on the next rise broke the Channel Up essentially starting the parabolic rise all the way to the 2011 All Time Highs.
Similarly the former bear market has made its bottom in late 2015 and the Higher High that followed built up the 1M Channel Up. Following a Golden Cross, the market consolidated for 2 years (unlike the early 2000) and recently broke the 1,380 Resistance to make a Higher High. If the 2000 model is followed then we may be looking for a 1W MA50 test by the end of year - beginning of 2020, which should be an optimal long term buy opportunity for a break above the Channel Up at $1,700.
Investing in Gold should be a priority for every fund, long term investor for at least the next 5 years. We will be updating our thesis on Gold with shorter term opportunities regularly.
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