Let's talk about Trump, gold continues to rise
After Trump came to power again, a series of measures have deeply affected the global political and economic landscape. His policy is like a carefully planned chess game, and every move is hidden. At present, various signs indicate that Europe has become his target, and Trump is trying to achieve the strategic plot of "bleeding Europe and kicking it out of the negotiation table" by a series of means.
1. Promoting Russia-Ukraine peace talks: interest calculations under the appearance of peace
After Trump came to power, he actively devoted himself to promoting Russia-Ukraine peace talks. At first glance, it seems to contribute to world peace, but in fact it contains multiple interests of the United States. From a geopolitical perspective, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been protracted, Russia's national strength has been continuously depleted in this war of attrition, and Europe is also deeply trapped in it. Due to sanctions on Russia, Europe's own energy supply channels have been blocked and the economy has suffered a heavy blow. If Trump succeeds in promoting peace talks, Russia will be able to get a breathing space and regain its position in the geopolitical map of Europe. In this way, Europe will lose the foundation for its tough stance against Russia. In the future strategic game with the United States, due to the internal contradictions and the change of geopolitical pattern, it will inevitably fall into a more passive and weak position.
From an economic perspective, during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a large amount of funds flowed out of Europe due to the need for risk aversion. In theory, once Russia and Ukraine achieve peace talks, there is a possibility that these funds will flow back to Europe and stabilize the European economy. However, when promoting peace talks, the Trump administration cleverly set additional conditions, such as requiring Europe to move closer to the United States in key areas such as trade and energy cooperation. Otherwise, it will not go all out to promote the peace talks in the direction that Europe expects. This makes Europe have to listen to the United States on the road to economic recovery and gradually become a vassal of the United States' economic interests.
2. Energy pricing power game: directly hit the lifeline of the European economy
The Trump administration has listed the Alaska liquefied natural gas development project as a national priority. This move has dual strategic intentions: on the one hand, it is expected that the project will help increase the production and export of US oil and natural gas, thereby achieving the US's "energy dominance"; on the other hand, it is a "secret killer move" against the European energy market.
For a long time, the United States has been committed to breaking Europe's dependence on Russian energy and making Europe rely on US energy supply. Trump puts pressure on European allies to force them to buy expensive US energy. Take Japan and South Korea as examples. In order to avoid the US "tariff stick", they are considering investing in large natural gas projects in Alaska, and some European countries are also facing similar huge pressure. As the share of US energy in the European market gradually increases, the United States will gradually gain the right to speak on European energy pricing. Once it controls this key power, the United States can adjust energy prices at will, and with high-priced energy, it can extract the "blood" of European economic development, causing the production costs of European companies to rise sharply, and weakening Europe's overall economic competitiveness in all aspects.
3. Trade war continues: Europe becomes a "victim"
Trump vigorously promotes the trade war, and his tariff policy is like a double-edged sword. While causing harm to trading partners, it also brings certain impacts to the US economy itself. However, the Trump administration obviously has a longer-term strategic layout. In this trade war, Europe is gradually becoming a "victim".
The United States imposes high tariffs on European goods, causing European export companies to be in trouble. The share of European automobiles, high-end manufacturing products, etc. in the US market has dropped sharply. At the same time, the Trump administration cleverly used the chaos in the global trade pattern caused by the trade war to force European companies to move their production bases to the United States to enjoy various preferential policies provided by the United States. This move not only further weakened the foundation of Europe's manufacturing industry, but also caused Europe's position in the global industrial chain to continue to decline. Affected by the trade war, Europe's economic growth momentum is insufficient, a large amount of capital has flowed out, and the unemployment rate has continued to rise.
4. Release the inflation haze: shift the economic crisis to Europe
For a long time, the United States has been plagued by inflationary pressure. In order to alleviate its own economic crisis, the Trump administration intends to release the inflationary pressure in the United States. By continuously printing money and expanding fiscal deficits, the United States attempted to pass on inflationary pressure to the world, and Europe was the first to bear the brunt.
Europe and the United States are closely linked economically. As the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US release of inflation has caused the dollar to depreciate. As a result, the large amount of US dollar assets held by Europe has shrunk. At the same time, the cost of importing US goods from Europe has become more expensive, which has further pushed up domestic prices in Europe. The European Central Bank is therefore in a dilemma: if it follows the United States in adopting loose monetary policies, it will further aggravate inflation; if it tightens monetary policy, it will inhibit economic growth. In this case, the European economy is stuck in a quagmire, and the United States has successfully passed on part of the cost of the economic crisis to Europe.
Trump's series of measures after taking office, whether it is promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, competing for energy pricing power, continuing the trade war, or releasing US inflationary pressure, each step is precisely moving in the direction of "bleeding Europe and kicking it out of the negotiation table". Europe is facing unprecedented severe challenges in this economic war without gunpowder. Where the European economy will go in the future and how the global economic landscape will evolve will largely depend on the subsequent actions of the Trump administration and Europe's own response strategy.
Through trade wars, energy exports and other means, when the euro gradually weakens with the overall economic strength of Europe, Trump will obtain more powerful negotiation resources, thereby transferring the investment costs of the entire Russian-Ukrainian battlefield to the European economy, and he can harvest more resources.
Of course, Europe cannot be slaughtered, so returning to the current issue, the media has been reporting that Trump wants to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. On the one hand, Trump hopes that the Federal Reserve will quickly cut interest rates to boost the prosperity of the US stock market. But on the other hand, Trump hopes to test whether Europe will follow the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates by cutting interest rates. If Europe does not cut interest rates, it will inevitably lead to a greater advantage for manufacturing to return to the United States. Europe will accelerate the loss of the economic foundation of manufacturing. But if Europe follows the interest rate cut, combined with the results of the trade tariff war, it will be more open to consume the excess capacity of the United States. This will allow Trump to accelerate the transfer and digestion of US inflation.
This is a very important reason why Trump wants to replace Powell, but every time he speaks to the media, Powell is very tough and emphasizes the need to maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve. One implements its own external economic policy from the perspective of commercial asset competition. The other maintains the stability of the dollar from the perspective of currency stability. The contradiction arises in that one wants to expand without considering the risks and only cares about making money. Powell, on the other hand, considers economic stability and risks. After all, the US government is more like working for the Federal Reserve, one is like a board of directors and the other is like a CEO. The money bag is still in the Federal Reserve, and Trump needs the money bag to support his economic policy to achieve his desired goals and his own political achievements.
In a recent media speech, Trump mentioned: Gold holders make the rules. This sentence led to a crazy rise in gold prices, but then we saw that the gold price rushed to $3,500 per ounce, and then there would be a large amount of selling as long as it reached the US market stage. In my opinion, this is a selling performance led by the US government, selling at a high price to other central banks willing to take over. The gold sold by the United States at a high price must not allow other central banks to transport gold from the United States. In this way, the high-level selling seems to be exchanged for more US dollars. But the performance of gold prices rising and falling, anyway, the physical gold is still in the United States. That is, gold holders make the rules. When the United States sells gold to a certain extent and the price of gold is low enough, it will buy back gold at a low price. This is done. The gold is still in the United States, but the debt of the United States can disappear out of thin air.
Of course, this is just a way for the US government to pay off its debts. No matter how much the tariffs are added, it is actually to distinguish between enemies and friends. This crazy trade war will not last long. Not only the United States knows that it is coming, but we also know it. The reason why he still wants to do this is nothing more than to get more bargaining chips at the negotiating table. At the same time, he shows his allies how hard he is trying to suppress China's economy. But the fact is that in the future, his allies will provide blood, and he will just move his lips. After all, taking the lead in the route of suppressing China, whether or not he has achieved results, his attitude is strong enough, so he can ask his allies for more supplies later.
So we only need to pay attention to Trump in the future, how to bleed the global economy. How to dissolve the US debt. Suppress the euro, and thus announce the dominance of the US dollar again. For Asian countries, it seems that they are just watching him act. Who will win this economic war? As for who will be the final winner? There is no winner, it is just a development in confrontation. In essence, if Europe wants to escape from the clutches of the United States, it seems that it can only seek other trade models and increase Europe's infrastructure to Asia, thereby linking the economy of the entire Eurasian continent and forming the rise of the inland economy. However, Europe is currently facing a problem, that is, China's infrastructure has a global credibility and market share. It is almost impossible to be challenged. It depends on whether Europe is willing to withdraw from the stage of history, develop in a downturn, and find new ways of cooperation.
Finally, gold is bullish at 3331, with a target of around 3360
