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Be ready to sell GOLD after the pullbackHello Traders I'm here with a new forex idea and analysis, Kindly share your LOVE by giving me LIKES and COMMENTS. Share with more traders like you. Follow me for more. Thanks in advance. Be ready to sell GOLD after the pullback Please support this idea with a LIKE if you find it useful. Thank you for reading this idea! I hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable. Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts. The information given is not Financial Advice.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Daily_Price_Action
2
China is slowing down, the US homes sales are growingYesterday was notable for the fact that for the first time in an epidemic, the number of new cases in China was lower than in the rest of the world. On the one hand, this indicates a reduction in the epidemic in China, and on the other, the continuation of the deterioration of the situation in the world. Since the situation with the epidemic in China is improving quite rapidly, we can begin to summarize its preliminary results. And although it’s too early to talk about specifics, some estimates can be obtained already here and now. These are the so-called early response indicators. For example, Bloomberg calculates 8 early response indicators for China. So 5 out of 8 in February decreased. But this is not the worst. The February indicators of business confidence fell to the lowest values in the history of observations. Business can be understood: the sales of new cars and real estate in China fell by more than 90%. Bloomberg data is also confirmed by a monthly study of the health of small and medium enterprises in China. The results are record low in the history of such studies. As for the more classical metrics, it is expected that China's GDP growth will decline to the lowest levels since 1990. Goldman Sachs, for example, expects China's GDP growth in the first quarter by only 2.5%. A sharp slowdown in the economy is frightening not only by the fact of the slowdown but also by the problems that it carries: rising unemployment, increasing bad debts, increasing bankruptcies, falling financial results of companies, decreasing domestic demand, etc. Speaking of official statistics, the first signals will appear on February 29, when the February PMI for China will be published. As expected, it will fall to the lowest levels since the global financial crisis (while some experts predict even lower values). Yesterday's data on sales of new homes in the USA looked rather provocative against this background: in January they grew by +7.9% to 764,000 with a forecast of +3.5% to 718,000. However, we will see what will happen there in February, especially in light of the Center’s warning the United States Disease Control and Prevention Regarding the threat of a possible spread of the virus throughout the United States. In general, the situation continues to be tense and for any positive, whether it is a decrease in the number of patients or the development of a vaccine, there is a negative right there (problems in the economy of China and the world, the spread of the epidemic, sales on stock markets, etc.). Accordingly, we do not see any reason to radically change anything in the trading plan. So today we are looking for points for buying gold (but we are careful - we buy on the slopes with mandatory stops), we sell oil, we sell EURUSD, we buy GBPUSD, we sell USDJPY with small stops.
Short
by Trade24Fx
The week results: the epidemic swing, the yen statusThe coronavirus epidemic continued to be the main focus of financial markets last week. And if the week began with a rather optimistic attitude of investors against the background of a decrease in the number of new cases of disease and deaths, then it ended on a very minor note: the epidemic spread to South Korea and Japan. In addition, analysts after the warning increasingly began to think about the consequences of the epidemic and quarantine in China (Goldman Sachs estimates that economic activity in China does not exceed 50%). And the longer restrictive measures last, the worse the mood of investors. They can be understood: dozens, if not hundreds of millions of Chinese, temporarily do not work and lead an exclusively isolated lifestyle. As a result, production does not work at full capacity, the transport system is partially paralyzed, consumption has fallen sharply, the clouds over global supply chains are gathering more and more with each day of downtime. That is, an economic epidemic is beginning, which could very well become a global pandemic. Not surprisingly, against this background, gold is updating the highest mark since the beginning of 2013 and continues to confidently move to the 1800 area. The current week in terms of the epidemic is likely to change its focus. If before that all attention was focused on China, and the whole epidemic was geographically localized. Then this week, investors will focus not so much on China as on other countries where the number of diseases has risen sharply: Japan, South Korea (last week the number of cases doubled almost every day), Italy and Iran. Judging by the current dynamics, it is likely that the reserve of bad news has not yet been exhausted. As a result, the stock markets finally broke down and rained down. It will be difficult to say whether the current sales will become the beginning of a full correction, but there are all the prerequisites for this. Another injured last week was the Japanese yen. After the failed data on GDP growth rates in the 4th quarter, everyone realized that the third-largest economy in the world is one step away from the recession. As a result, the status of the yen as a safe-haven asset is damaged. However, we will not write off the yen from the accounts and will sell it within the day simply because the pair climbed very high (with mandatory small stops because we are reporting that we are going against the will of the market). Europe has traditionally already disappointed in terms of macroeconomic statistics and the general state of affairs, especially in Germany. Accordingly, the talk of a global recession against the backdrop of the problems of Japan and the Eurozone no longer seems fabrications and conspiracy theories. For fairness, we note that on Friday the data on business activity indexes in the Eurozone came out better than forecasts at the highest levels for the last 6 months, but so far this is only a drop of positive in a sea of negativity. In the UK, production growth generally showed a 10-year high, which allowed the pound to perk up and work out our recommendation on its purchases. As for macroeconomic statistics this week, the week promises to be quite calm. So you can focus all your attention on the news about the epidemic and expert estimates of the extent of damage both for China and the world as a whole. Our basic positions for the current week are as follows: we are looking for points for buying gold (but given the strong oversoldness of the asset, we are doing this conservatively and with mandatory stops), we sell oil, we sell EURUSD, we buy GBPUSD, we sell USDJPY above 112 with short-stops.
by Trade24Fx
$SHAK Has A Big Gap To Close$SHAK is climbing after getting some love from $GS. Goldman Sachs keeps a Buy rating on Shake Shack (SHAK +8.9%) after digesting the company's ICR presentation yesterday. The firm sees significant upside from the restaurant operator's new partnership with Grubhub in particular. "As part of the partnership, GRUB has provided SHAK with detailed customer data, as well as marketing resources such as loyalty and targeted promotions," notes analyst Katherine Fogertey. She is also positive on the menu innovation highlighted yesterday by Shake Shack management at the ICR Conference. Goldman's price target of $115 on Shake Shack reps +60% upside potential and is well-above the average sell-side PT of $75.00 and 52-week high of $105.84. Shares of Shake Shack were back over $70 for the first time since early November. Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) also gained after presenting at the ICR Conference. A key highlight from the restaurant operator was the plan to expand at a measured pace in China, South Korea and Singapore. As for menu innovation, new chicken products are planned for the middle part of the year and the restaurant operator is set to introduce a veggie burger later in the year. The company sees improving Shack-level operating margin by working on long-term economies of scale in the supply chain and accelerating the use of technology to deliver labor efficiencies. As always, trade with caution and use protective stops. Good luck to all!
NYSE:SHAKLong
by InsiderFinancial
Risk insurance, what to do with the dollar, oil and the rubleYesterday's opening brought gold to the highest mark since 2013. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, gold is by far the best hedge against geopolitical risks. We generally agree with this and continue to recommend buying the asset, since we believe that the mark of 1800 is an achievable goal for gold this year. But it is much more promising trading ideas in terms of earnings is the US high-tech sector shares sale of for us. But since we are conducting a separate branch of stock reviews, let's get back to the currency and commodity markets, as well as the news. Key events continue to develop around the conflict between the US and Iran. Key news for today: Soleimani killed (second most important person in Iran); Iran announced impending revenge; Iraq asked US troops to leave the country; Trump announced 52 targets in Iran in response to possible attacks; Iran has completely withdrawn from the nuclear deal. Total, the situation is developing, but so far more horizontally than vertically. The growth of gold and oil is rather an attempt to discount in advance under the escalation of the conflict. Although we prefer from time to time to go against the stream and open reverse positions, for now, we recommend going in the direction of travel. At least, we will definitely continue the purchase of gold. As for oil, its further growth will depend entirely on Iran’s actions. In general, we do not believe in the rapid transition of processes to the terminal stage, which means that we do not believe in further oil growth. But first of all, one should proceed from the facts. Therefore, for the time being, we maintain neutrality in oil. Which, however, it does not stop buying an asset within a day from interesting points, as well as selling it in the absence of tough fundamental contraindications. The Russian ruble is still extremely attractive for sales. So those of our readers who have not sold it yet can do it today. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, attention should be paid to consumer inflation and retail sales in the Eurozone, as well as data from the USA (ISM index of business activity in the services sector, production orders and trade balance).
TVC:NDQLong
by Trade24Fx
Is COT trading in a giant Bull Flag?Maybe a descending triangle as well, but seeing the recent bullish upward since Goldman Sachs recommended a buy rating from neutral. It actually appears as though COT has formed a Triple Bottom, which also appears slightly as a Ascending Triangle. The triple bottom is similar to the double bottom chart pattern and may also look like ascending or descending triangles. When STZ entered the Cannabis space they used Goldman Sachs to broker the deal. Goldman Sachs went bullish on Cott a in July, and why? Well, we know Goldman Sachs is supportive of cannabis via the previous brokered deal with STZ & Canopy. They'd be privy to any Safe Banking & States Act regulations, so that may simply be the answer, front running Cott's entry into the cannabis space? Cott has sold off several assets over the past couple years & have some cash to spend, and seeing so many previous Cott employees in the Cannabis space leads me to believe they may make a surprise entrance into the sector..
CLong
by ScotianBot
Stock of the Week: Goldman Sachs Group (GS)Local Breakout after Bullish Behaviour Suggests Further Advance WYCKOFF STORY Upsloping price structure of higher highs and higher lows suggests accumulation that happens on diminished supply signature. Last bar acts as a local breakout which is confirmed by increased demand signature. Up trending OBV suggests that institutions are actively getting into this position. Relative Strength is improving. Trading Target $180 Count Line + (21 boxes * 3 reversal * $2 box size)= $306 Pattern Confirmation Continuation of rally above $230 Pattern Failure Close below $190
NYSE:GSLong
by Wyckoff_Analytics
1
Goldman Sacks warns that buybacks are ‘plummeting,’Goldman warns that buybacks are ‘plummeting,’ ending a big source of buying power for the market Corporate buybacks are “plummeting” as companies tighten their purse strings, and it could have a big impact on the market, Goldman Sachs warned in a note to clients. In the second quarter, S&P 500 share buybacks totaled $161 billion, about 18% less than the first quarter, the firm found. The amount spent on buybacks this year is down 17% from a year earlier, although it is on track to be the second highest total on record, Goldman said. The firm anticipates that this trend will continue, saying “early indications suggest second-quarter weakness in buybacks may persist.” For 2019, total buybacks will drop 15% to $710 billion, and in 2020 they see a 5% decline to $675 billion, the firm predicted. Share repurchases have been a key element during this bull market, the longest on record. By repurchasing shares, a company reduces the number of shares outstanding. It can have the effect of boosting the stock price and lifts earnings per share figures. It’s a frequent, but not always popular, move for companies. Some argue that instead of using buybacks, companies should invest more in capital investments. And Washington is taking note. The House Financial Services Committee, for instance, is looking at ways to reform buyback spending laws. All spending is slowing The slowdown in buybacks is part of a larger trend of spending cuts, Goldman found, as trade uncertainty and stalling global growth weigh on the market. Total cash spending fell by 4% year over year in the first half of the year, according to the firm. It anticipates cash spending for the entire year will decline by 6%, making it the sharpest yearly decline since 2009. During the third quarter “CEO confidence plummeted to the lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis,” Goldman said. It cited a recent study from Duke University that found a majority of CFOs expect the U.S. will be in a recession within the next year. “Companies spend less cash when policy uncertainty is high. During August, global economic policy uncertainty registered the highest level in at least 20 years. Historically, growth in aggregate S&P 500 cash spending has been weaker during periods of high policy uncertainty. The combination of an ongoing trade conflict and next year’s US presidential election will likely result in lingering uncertainty,” Goldman’s David Kostin wrote
NYSE:GS
by oussamaelgadoum
Threats on the horizon, EU summit & hidden intervention of JapanToday we are talking about a possible demarche by the Irish Democratic Party and, accordingly, the text of the treaty that could be not approved. Therefore, the GBP movement stuck. On the one hand, growth needs to be continued, because on brink of Brexit deal, on the other hand, everyone suddenly realized that the deal still has to be approved by the Parliament of Great Britain. This has already happened with Theresa May so the growth of the pound has stopped so far. Also, a positive sign following the results of today's summit of the European Union may well overshadow the concerns for a while. So today we will continue to buy the pound, but with an eye on the outcome of the summit. Its failure will be a sentence for the pound (at least temporary) and it will be sold out. Another rather unexpected threat was the announcement by China that the country is ready for countermeasures if the US Congress provides legislative support to protesters in Hong Kong. Given the already difficult and still incomplete trade negotiations between the United States and China, this could become a stumbling block in resolving trade wars. In the light of such news and market concerns, today we will continue to look for points for safe-haven assets purchase (gold and the Japanese yen). As for the yen decline this week, Goldman Sachs explains its weaknesses with purchases of foreign assets by the Japanese State Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), which put pressure on its currency. But in general, this is a form of hidden currency interventions. Interventions by the Bank of Japan may provoke the United States to ask the Bank questions, but also it seems like there is no manipulation. Worth noting the weak data on US retail sales (-0.3% with the forecast + 0.3%). The dollar naturally was under pressure. Recall that we remain bears, so today we continue to look for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market.
Long
by Trade24Fx