Gold: short, target 1920
Gold fluctuated in the box today, and the volatility was significantly lower than last week and the beginning of this week.
At present, it is the digestion stage after the sharp drop. If it can rise and break through the box, there is a high probability that it can touch the resistance near 1957-1961.
However, judging from the current situation, the possibility of a breakthrough is unlikely, but the probability of falling below the 1933 support level of the box is relatively high.
Therefore, in terms of trading strategy, I think shorting gold has a higher probability of profit. If you have sufficient funds, you can set the targets at 1928, 1923, and 1915 respectively.
Goldminers
Gold pumping up to $2,138 due to the banking collapse in AmericaRounding Bottom has formed on the daily.
This was a shock to technical analysts as we saw a struggle with gold over the last 2 months to $1,818.
7>21>200 -Bullish
The price failed to break below 200MA showing strong demand and buying.
RSI<7- bullish
Target $2,138
Now we've seen a number of banks collapse from SVB, Silvergate (crypto) Credit Suisse and Republic Bank. And there are now signs that there is contagion which could lead to another 10 - 100 banks to fail as well.
There are a couple of reasons I can think of for the push up for gold.
#1: Confidence in the financial system
If big banks in America collapse, it can shake confidence in the financial system, leading investors to look for a safe haven asset like gold.
#2: Inflation
The collapse of big banks can lead to inflation as the government may print more money to support the economy.
This can increase the demand for gold as a hedge against inflation.
#3: Economic uncertainty
The collapse of big banks can create economic uncertainty.
This can cause investors to seek the stability and security of gold.
#4: Panic buying and protection
The collapse of big banks can lead to panic buying of gold as investors rush to protect their assets.
Once again this leads to gold being the safe haven asset to go to, which will push the price up.
Gold is expected to drop to around 1870
Yesterday, gold continued to rise during trading hours. It fell from the 1905 level to around 1887, and a further drop of $10 would have completed the gap filling at the 1867 level. However, stimulated by the news of the collapse of Credit Suisse Bank, gold rebounded due to increased risk aversion. The subsequent release of PPI data was also positive for gold, with the underlying message being not to raise interest rates excessively.
At the same time, as I mentioned earlier, the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank was more due to the Fed's interest rate hike that plundered global wealth. Now looking back, not only the economic wealth of the world but also the assets and various obscure funds of the rich and powerful were not spared. This is reflected in Swiss banks, which we all know have dealings with many wealthy businessmen, politicians, and cryptocurrencies, oil dollars, hedge funds, and so on. If Credit Suisse Bank collapses, it will cause a global financial storm, and at this time, the US dollar will rise. And in Europe and NATO, their stock indices and foreign exchange markets were collectively shorted, and these published data played a very crucial role.
Remember the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 when gold rose more than $100 for two consecutive days? It then fluctuated for a week, and after risk aversion receded, gold returned to its price before the news broke.
Now gold has risen from around 1805 to 1937, an increase of $130. From this perspective, it is not very safe to chase gold at 1937.
We cannot be sure how high gold will rise before market sentiment stabilizes, but at this stage, it is not suitable to take big risks and chase after it. The higher it goes, the greater the probability of falling to around 1867, and the further away it is from 1867, the greater the profit potential of shorting.
After gold rose to around 1937 yesterday, Switzerland began to rescue the banks, reducing the spread of panic and suppressing the continuous rise in risk aversion. Therefore, gold subsequently fell back to around 1910 and rebounded, currently at around 1920.
If it cannot break through 1940 today, gold is highly likely to form a double top. After all, the resistance above 1940 is still very clear. Of course, if it can rise by around $50 today, reaching around 1970, combined with the initial claims data to be released today, the probability of returning directly to 1867 will be even greater. This is how the market works. It always surprises us with unexpected events.
Therefore, in today's trading, if there is enough margin and a willingness to take risks, one can try to short a small amount around 1930-1940. If it can reach around 1965, then we can go short with a heavy position.
Of course, such a transaction is premised on the absence of news similar to a bank bankruptcy. Currently, the global situation is tense, and after such an event, the Fed's interest rate hike next week will at least reduce or even stop. By then, the market will show retaliatory rise, which will be negative for safe-haven assets like gold. It could suddenly drop after being pumped up, with no technical factors, only a profit-taking and risk aversion easing is enough to make gold drop by $50 in one day. Moreover, the gap filling at around 1867 is still possible. It is important to remain cautious and avoid being too optimistic.
Trader, if you enjoy my content, please follow and support me. I will update with more interesting trading information, including gold, crude oil, forex, cryptocurrency, stocks, etc. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment, and I will provide you with answers.
Gold rally nearing its end, beware of bearish attack
The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates over the past year, and regardless of the level of those rate hikes, they are now approaching their end. During this year, how much of the global US dollar has returned to the United States, and how much capital was directed to American banks during the Ukraine crisis, when Switzerland's neutrality failed? Despite the prolonged interest rate hikes, inflation remains high, so reaping wealth is temporarily difficult.
This is why bank failures are occurring. Regardless, these banks are still making money, because their assets are greater than the insurance the country needs to bear, while also causing financial collapse and stock market declines in other countries, completing the final wave of wealth harvesting.
Now, the Federal Reserve is gradually slowing its rate hikes, and may even start cutting rates to provide liquidity support for banks. In fact, every time a crisis is resolved, it is about harvesting global wealth. After the world pays for it, they continue to loosen their monetary policies, print US dollars, and circulate them globally, until the economy improves, and then use various means to plunder wealth!
Currently, the market sentiment is rising, and we cannot rely solely on technical analysis to find support and resistance, as these are insignificant in the face of the Federal Reserve and bank failures. What I can tell you is that everything has its limits. When everyone has the same view of a trend, it is the time when the trend is about to end.
We cannot be sure where gold will rise to, but it will definitely fall back to fill the gap at 1867 later on, and the more space there is, the better for them to reap more wealth. They are probably not satisfied with the current space of less than $50, and it is very likely that they will continue to push upward.
Therefore, today we need to focus on the areas near 1919, 1931, and 1958-1967, because only by opening up a $100 space and letting people forget about the position of 1867, can we have a chance for sudden changes, such as a $100 drop in one day.
The recent trend in the market is that you can go long when the price drops by $15-20 from a high point, such as going long when the price drops from the highest point of 1915 to around 1900-1895. This is a relatively safe way to conduct long trades.
If gold rises by $40-60 today, we must be alert for a sudden attack by the bears!
Of course, they may also use tomorrow's data to achieve their goals.
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Silver To skyrocketHey Guys,
Banks are realizing bonds arent the safety they thought and need to diversify has shown in a big way with the yields decline, metals bulling and DXY rising. I expect silver to possibly have another leg down with any major panic we might have but once we are past the panic gold and silver will bull just like 2009-2012 and the 80s. Above is the larger picture of silver targets to keep in mind.
Gold can go long
Gold has been fluctuating around the range of 1890-1914 today and has completed the initial support test. It is likely to attempt to break through the resistance near 1914. If it does, gold will rise to around 1919. If it fails to break through, it will continue to test the support around 1900.
Trading strategy:
Go long below 1903.
Gold: Today's Trading Strategy
Gold successfully regained the $1900 level under the push of various news. As of now, the follow-up handling of the SVB bankruptcy event only protects depositors without being responsible for the rights of shareholders and creditors. Following SVB, First Republic Bank also faced a run on its deposits, with its stock price falling more than 70% before trading was suspended yesterday. Prior to the suspension, the stock had fallen more than 60%. After opening yesterday, Cathay Pacific Wealth Management also fell by as much as 25%. 325 venture capital firms and 650 company founders issued a joint statement calling for the government to prevent disaster from happening, stating that Silicon Valley Bank must not fail. There has been no response yet.
Gold is under pressure today, fluctuating around the resistance level near 1914. From a technical perspective, the MACD on the 30-minute chart is about to form a golden cross, and the K-line is between the upper and middle bands of the Bollinger Bands, with a trend towards approaching the 1918 level, which is our first target for today.
On the 1-hour chart, the MACD indicator has formed a death cross and is currently showing signs of a turnaround. The K-line is near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and the upper band resistance is near 1919. Starting from near 1810, the K-line has been supported by the middle band and has been trending upwards. As long as it does not fall below the middle band, the trend is still biased towards the upside.
Therefore, I believe that today's trading is still suitable for focusing on buying on dips. Pay attention to the support levels of 1900, 1883, and 1865, and the resistance levels near 1918, 1931, and 1958.
Specific trading strategies:
The first buy point is around 1900-1906, and the second buy point is around 1890. If the resistance near 1914 is broken, 1910-1915 will become support levels and can be used as buy points.
The target levels are 1918, 1931, and 1958.
Thank you for your attention and support. Please also pay attention to the real-time updates below. The market is constantly changing, and I will adjust my strategies in real-time.
Gold: This will be the best trading strategy currently available
Gold has shown strong momentum today, breaking through the 1900 level. As of now, the upward trend has not been completely exhausted, and the risk of bank runs is likely to continue to drive gold higher. Our next resistance target is around 1918, followed by 1931, and if we can break through, 1958 will be our highest target in the near future.
During the upward movement, we need to pay attention to several support levels: 1900, 1887, 1863, and 1855. As long as the support is not broken, the price of gold will continue to rise.
At the same time, we need to pay attention to the follow-up impact of the recent SVB bankruptcy event, focusing on whether the Fed's response plan is effective. If risk aversion subsides, the probability of a sharp drop in gold prices will increase.
I will continue to track market trends and share my trading strategies. Thank you for your attention and support!
Gold: Continue to go long with a target of 1900
The surge in risk aversion has driven gold higher, breaking through the resistance level of 1880 and is likely to reach 1900 next. Therefore, trading should continue to be long-focused.
Of course, it is not sustainable for gold to keep rising without a correction. There is a higher probability of a pullback near 1900, and attention should be paid to the support range of 1867-1860.
By now, I think everyone should know how to trade!
Today's strategy is simple: go long below 1900 with a take-profit target of 1885-1899, and short above 1900 with a take-profit target of 1885-1865.
I will update and share real-time during trading hours, thank you for your attention and support!
Gold: Real-time trading strategies
Backtesting gold has found support near 1870, and has risen in the short term. Currently, it has reached a resistance level near 1890. If it can break through, there is potential for it to touch 1900. If it cannot, it may fall back below 1870 again. Based on today's trend, it is still suitable for long trades. Therefore, after the fall, it can be bought again.
Stay tuned as I will update trading strategies at any time.
Subsequent processing of SVB bankruptcy and its impact on gold
The federal government has announced that Silicon Valley Bank depositors will be able to withdraw 100% of their deposits starting from Monday. The official statement claims that, after joint recommendations from the Federal Savings Insurance Corporation and the Federal Reserve, and reporting to the President, the Treasury Secretary has signed and approved actions to complete the closure of Silicon Valley Bank, and all depositors can use their deposits, with full protection, from Monday, March 13. Additionally, a new program will be established to provide funds to other banks, allowing them to borrow from the federal government for up to one year using low-risk debt such as government bonds as collateral, in order to meet the needs of all depositors.
This news has had a certain restraining effect on the currently high safe-haven sentiment. Gold is expected to pay close attention to the 1900 resistance level and the 1867-1863 support level. If support falls below this range, it indicates a significant easing of safe-haven sentiment, and the sharp rise in gold prices will be suppressed, with short-term demand for a pullback.
What is the golden stop-loss rule?
For trades such as stocks, futures, or forex, stop loss is a part of the trade, and it only works for investors if there is a stop loss in each transaction and it is adhered to. Today, I bring you a 3:1 gold stop loss rule, hoping to help with your investments.
Stop loss is a way to minimize losses in current market trades and is frequently mentioned. However, the essence of stop loss is not just setting a stop loss price. In particular, in markets such as forex and futures where long and short positions can be taken, too many stop losses will undoubtedly cause significant loss of capital. Market leaders use people's fear to cause repeated shocks, even unilateral rises or falls to trigger short-term traders' stop loss prices, and then quickly retract. The normal daily volatility of the stock market is also around 5%, so if your stop loss is set at 5%, won't it often be hit?
This requires attention to two issues: first, judging the trend of the market, whether it is a volatile market or a clear trend market; second, setting a reasonable stop loss position.
First of all, it's important to understand that the most notable characteristic of the trading market is volatility, and most of the time it's in a volatile trend, regardless of whether it's in a larger time frame or a shorter time frame. Therefore, the investment strategy for a volatile market should be the preferred strategy for short-term traders.
Secondly, identifying the range of volatility is crucial. Find the highest and lowest prices in recent price fluctuations. After a sharp rise or fall in the market, a corrective wave will form between these highest and lowest prices, sometimes lasting a long time. For example, commonly seen patterns such as triangle consolidation or box consolidation require a longer period of time before forming a new breakthrough. As for what prices to choose as the range, it depends on your trading period, whether it's daily, weekly, 60-minute, or even minute-by-minute. By using price analysis to determine the operational cycle, you will find a clear pattern of fluctuation range. The stop-loss price for such fluctuations should be set outside the highest or lowest points, and smaller stop-loss or trailing stop-loss should not be used.
When the price breaks through the highest point, it is necessary to observe its sustainability. In most cases, it will return to the range-bound area again. However, if the sustainability is strong, it continuously sets new highs, and trading volume continues to increase, a new trend can be determined, and the stop-loss can be changed to a trailing stop. Its price should be set at a price that falls more than one time period beyond the highest or lowest price, and there is no new high or low in three consecutive time periods. At this time, it can be judged that the trend has stopped and entered a range-bound market. For example, if the time period is a 5-minute candlestick chart, then the trailing stop should be set at a price formed by a relatively large 5-minute candlestick chart. But generally, it should not exceed two candlestick chart prices, because beyond this price, the profit left is often very small.
The 3:1 golden stop-loss rule in trading skills means that the profit of the take-profit point is three times the loss of the stop-loss point. For example, if you buy a stock and it falls by 7% or 8%, you should close your position in a timely manner. When your stock rises by 20% to 25%, you should consider selling some of it, and not be greedy and wait for it to rise further. Of course, the percentage values here can be changed according to the market situation, but the ratio should always be maintained at 3:1.
Some investors may have doubts, what if I set a stop loss at 8% and then the stock rises significantly, even by more than 50%, after I sell it? It seems like a big mistake to sell it, and many investors may no longer believe in the 3:1 rule. Actually, the reason why we set a stop loss at 8% is to prevent it from falling by 10%, 20%, 25%, 40% or even more. You can think of it as a small insurance premium to ensure that an 8% loss doesn't turn into a 60% loss. Isn't it easier to handle that way? For most investors, an 8% loss is manageable, but a 60% loss is a burden that many cannot afford.
In the market, human weaknesses will be reflected. When you hold a stock that falls, you will lose some capital, and you will fear that it will continue to fall, rather than hoping it will rebound to make up for previous losses. As a defensive measure, trading systems should still follow the 3:1 rule for stop losses. Finally, I wish everyone a happy investment journey.
Gold: Continue to go long in this range
Gold was impacted by non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data, breaking through resistance near 1845 in the short term and surpassing the previous high near 1859, rising to around 1870. Currently, 1845 and 1860 have both turned into support levels from resistance levels, causing the trend of gold to change to an upward trend.
Due to the significant short-term increase, there is expected to be a need for support testing in the future. Therefore, I believe that as long as gold does not fall below the support levels of 1845 and 1860, the focus should still be on long positions. I will update specific trading points during daily trading, so please stay tuned to receive timely notifications of trading updates.
Gold: How to trade after breaking through the resistance at 1823
After breaking through the resistance at 1823, gold rose to 1835, breaking through the resistance level near 1831 during the period. Currently, it is starting to fall. Since breaking through 1823, this level has changed from resistance to support, and the current support range is between 1822-1825. If it does not fall below this level, the short-term trend of gold will turn from bearish to bullish, with resistance levels at 1835, 1844, and 1858.
In addition, non-farm data will be released tomorrow. Based on today's data, there is a high probability that it will be bullish for gold. If both the technical and data aspects are bullish for gold, then gold will undoubtedly rise and is likely to test the previous high.
If the data is bearish but the market does not fall below 1804, the probability of a rebound is still high, so it is currently better to focus on the long side, as long as it does not fall below 1823.
I will continue to monitor market trends in real-time and share strategies. Thank you for your attention and support.
I will share more interesting trading strategies! If you have any questions, please leave a comment in the comment section. I will provide you with the most reliable solution with the most serious and responsible attitude to help you solve the problem!
Wishing you a pleasant day!
Gold: Latest Trading Strategy
Gold is currently testing the resistance in the range of 1820-1823. If it can break through the resistance, the price is expected to rise to around 1831. If it cannot break through, it is expected to fall below 1813.
Based on the current trend, the probability of a direct upward breakthrough is not high. It is expected to rise and then fall back rapidly, just like yesterday. Therefore, I believe short positions can be initiated in the range of 1820-1825 with profit-taking at 1815-1810.
I will continue to track market trends and share trading information in real-time. Thank you for your attention and support! With you, the world is a better place!
Wishing you a wonderful day!
Gold: Where are the bulls taking profits?
On the 15-minute chart for gold, the MACD is about to form a golden cross, which is a bullish signal. We entered a long position accurately near 1847 and are currently holding it, waiting for the first take profit level near 1853.
Thank you for your attention and support, please stay tuned as I will update our trading strategy at any time!
Gold: Trading like this today will yield more profits
As expected, gold traded within the range of 1813-1823 in the last few hours yesterday and fell below 1813 today. Therefore, our first target is around 1804, as the trend has turned from bullish to bearish. When trading, it is mainly focused on shorting at high levels.
The chart is based on a 30-minute interval, and the first resistance to be faced today is near 1814. Only by breaking through it is it possible to touch the second resistance near 1823, and then possibly 1831.
1814 is considered the first resistance because it was originally a support level but has now been broken, turning into a resistance level. The same is true for 1823 and 1831.
To trade based on today's bearish sentiment, the specific strategy is as follows:
Start with a small amount of short trading near 1814. If there is a breakthrough, increase short positions in the range of 1819-1823, with TP set at 1813 and 1806, respectively.
When testing the support near 1804, if the support is effective, go long in the range of 1804-1806, with TP set at 1812 and 1819, respectively. Afterward, observe the resistance near 1823 to determine the next trading direction.
I will continue to track the market trends in real-time and share strategies. Thank you for your support and attention, and I hope you continue to follow me as it will contribute to the completeness of the trade. I will also share more interesting trading strategies for you to refer to! If you have any questions, please leave a message in the comments section, and I will provide you with the most reliable solution with the most serious and responsible attitude to help you solve the problem!
Wish you a pleasant day!
How to grasp the impact of news on GOLD?
Here we will use the United States as an example since it is a major world economy with significant influence and weight.
Point 1: Release of important data
For instance, the release of US non-farm payroll (NFP), employment data (ADP), initial jobless claims, CPI, GDP, PMI, etc. all have varying degrees of impact on the price of gold.
Often, the release of this important data will trigger fluctuations in gold prices. Generally speaking, when the US dollar rises, gold falls, and when the US dollar falls, gold rises. However, there may be synchronous situations, which are very rare. If this occurs, investors need to analyze and consider it carefully.
For instance, the weakness of the US dollar often pushes up the price of gold, as the decline in the US dollar can allow investors who use non-US currencies as their base currency to buy cheaper gold with other currencies. It can also stimulate demand for gold, especially in the consumption of gold jewelry.
Point 2: Speeches by some important officials
For example, speeches by well-known officials such as those from the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury.
Undoubtedly, speeches by officials from different countries are a significant factor influencing the trend of gold prices, but the impact of officials' positions, identities, and the content of their speeches on the gold market varies in magnitude.
The above two points are a few of the news contents that have a significant impact on the price of gold. In addition, other economic data in the United States should also be noted as they all mutually influence and relate to each other.
COMEX:GC1! BIST:XAUUSD1! MCX:GOLD1!
What to do if your long position in gold is trapped?
Hello everyone, today gold continued to fall after breaking through the support level of 1841, and there is currently no sign of a rebound. The key focus now is on the resistance around 1842. If it cannot be broken, the gold price will further decline to around 1830-1833.
Currently, there may be many friends holding long positions in gold. Don't worry, first add to your long position near 1837 and take profits around 1842 when it rebounds.
After taking profits, observe whether 1842 can be broken. If it can, then continue to hold onto your long position from earlier. If it encounters resistance and falls, you can choose to short gold and take profits around 1833.
Thank you for your attention and support. I will continue to track changes in the market. If you have any questions, please leave a comment and I will provide you with the most reliable solution with a sincere and responsible attitude to help you solve the problem!
Gold: Trading like this today can be profitable
Hello everyone, on the 30-minute chart, gold is currently oscillating in the range of 1845-1851. The MACD indicator is temporarily in a golden cross formation, but its performance is relatively weak, and there are already signs of a death cross forming. This indicates an impending correction.
On the 1-hour chart, the MACD is about to form a golden cross. If this happens, it means that there will be a large bullish candlestick coming up.
However, on the 2-hour and 3-hour charts, the consolidation phase is not yet over, so it is highly likely that gold will continue to oscillate today, with a range between 1842-1857. Our trading strategy for today will revolve around this range.
Thank you for your attention and support. I will continue to track market changes. If you have any questions, please leave a comment, and I will provide you with the most reliable solutions in the most sincere and responsible manner to help you solve your problems!
The adjustment of gold is already in place, and today the bulls
The world is already dirty, so there is nothing to be afraid of. Everyone has bitterness that cannot be vented, and depression that cannot be resolved, but who of us living here is not doing our best, or even living by unscrupulous means.
The gold bulls did not continue their gains yesterday, indicating that the current upward movement is mainly based on shocks, and there are many repetitions on the way. Today, the bulls may return again. For gold operation, it is recommended to buy at 1842.50, risk control at 1838.50, and target 1851~1856.
Gold is bullish for several reasons:
1. Gold failed to continue to break through as expected yesterday, but the bullish trend has not changed, and it will try to counterattack again today.
2. According to my analysis, the rebound of Wave 2 B continues again. At present, we can see the pressure of 38.2% of the golden section and the suppression of the high level of the previous platform.
3. The pressure within the day is 1855~1858, and the support is 1843~1839.
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write in the comments. I will be happy 👩💻
Gold: Forecast and Trading Strategy for Next Week
In the world of trading, the players control the game, the observers understand the game, and the participants play the game within the game.
What goes up high enough will eventually fall deep enough, and what falls deep enough will eventually rise high enough. This is an eternal logic in financial markets, where the core lies in volatility that creates value and opportunities. Investors and speculators participate only when there is volatility.
The financial market itself does not generate profit, but the speculative price difference of buying low and selling high can produce profit. It is nothing more than buying when someone else sells, or selling when someone else buys. Therefore, to avoid being eliminated, one must understand the game, and to understand the game, one must abide by the market rules.
Looking at the daily chart of gold, the downward wave has ended and the rebound phase has begun. Next week's pressure is concentrated in the daily Bollinger upper band at 1875 and the 1870 moving average area! Moreover, on Friday, the market directly broke through the pressure of 1850, so the trend next week will continue to be bullish. After rising above 1870, consider going short!
There are two possible trends for the next market. The first is to continue the strong upward trend, directly breaking through the pressure of 1875 and testing the previous high position. The second is to maintain the oscillation within the large range of 1870-1800! Looking at the weekly chart, the bullish trend is slightly stronger, but a big oscillation is inevitable after rising to around 1875!
In short, the strategy for next week is to go long first, adjust the mindset according to the trend after the pressure position, and follow my rhythm to continue making profits!
Gold: Long position, target 1870-1875
Hello everyone, on the hourly chart, gold has formed a double bottom structure and forcefully broke through the previous moving average resistance and the consolidation resistance at 1850. There is no doubt that gold has turned into a bullish trend! Therefore, the only trading strategy is to go long! The target is 1870-1875, which is where the upper band of the Bollinger band is located on the daily chart and has a certain resistance, so the target is set at 1870-1875 for now.
The entry points are 1850, 1845, and 1840 respectively. This large range belongs to the support range and is more suitable as a buying point.
I will continue to track the gold market and update my trading strategy. Thank you for your attention and support. If you have any questions, please leave a comment and I will provide you with the most sincere and responsible solutions. Wish you success!