1/23/22 GDXVanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $31.65
Breakout price: $32.90
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $32.00-$29.25
Price Target: $38.80-$39.30
Estimated Duration to Target: 224-230d
Contract of Interest: $GDX 9/16/22 32c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.15/contract
Goldminers
GDX consolidating to downside biasQuick update that previous attempt for GDX to rally up was pre-mature. Still not yet in a bull trend.
Weekly chart had a break out above 55EMA fail in the last couple of weeks, only to bounce off a support. Technicals not totally aligned so may consolidate for a couple more weeks before some clarity forms.
Daily chart (right panel) shows the failed attempt, which now has a clear resistance line (lime green). Last week ended with a failure type downward candlestick, suggesting weakness in a rally. Technicals appear somewhat bullish, in contrast to weekly chart.
Expecting some consolidation, with a little downside bias within range.
Treasury Metals - D1 - 2021Treasury Metals - D1 - 2021
last news : Treasury Metals Announces Closing of Private Placement Financing
Montage Gold - D1 - dec 2021LAST news :
is pleased to report additional near surface high-grade drill results from the Petit Yao Central target within the Koné Gold Project ("KGP") in Côte d'Ivoire. The Company is also pleased to provide an update on the ongoing Feasibility Study and permitting progress at the KGP as well as other exploration activities within the portfolio.
Hugh Stuart, Montage CEO commented, "We continue to be impressed with the high-grade drill results at Petit Yao Central which is showing potential as a satellite pit for the KGP. The mineralization sits near surface, predominantly in oxides, is shallow dipping and is open in all directions. This program will enable us to evaluate the resource potential of Petit Yao Central while we plan to test the strike extensions.
Bullish Fundamentals and Technicals !!before saying anything I would like to mention the upcoming Drill results which could be a serious catalyst for the price of Labrador Gold corp. So in term of due diligence I do not just speak to Technical chart but also to extensive research such as Grades ,jurisdiction, financials and more.
with that in mind, looking at TSXV:LAB one cant not notice the following Indicators:
-Bullish diversion in Momentum in the MACD : ✔
-Bullish diversion in Momentum in the RSI : ✔
(which are both signalling upside in the near term)
-also the STH Daily Bollinger bands are signalling a contraction to the upside : ✔
With regards to further TA :
-Double bottom Formation : ✔
-possible Resumption of 200 Simple moving average : ✔
-Breakout from diagonal resistance and back test : ✔
The Chart is screaming BUY BUY BUY BUY !!!!!!!!!!
GDX looking for higher lowGDX have been so beaten for so long, and every previous attempt was not ready for that consolidation nor higher low. After a recent and decent break above the 55EMA, the Gold miners GDX ETF is retracing hard (as expected) and is now looking for a higher low, in about a week or two.
And with that, then we know the next run would be more robust.
GDX and probably GXC rising to the occasionThe GDX was in close watch and it is time... Technicals are favourable for a bull run, and so is the broad equity market. Also had broken out of the Buy Zone!
GXC the China ETF is just about ripe based on technicals. Similarly, broad equity market drift should hold in supportm and the immediate gap should be closed for a run up.
$NCM bearflag made measured move now.. let's seeNCM $GOLD made MM from bearflag... now let's see.
It's now at the bottom of a MUCH bigger bearflag - making her mind up. If it slips, I'll be outsies
Fkn $gold ey!
Gold 1-day classic patternsQ: What has the highest probability of occurring?
In 2021 gold has been rotating between $1900 and $1700 per ounce.
While a variety of classic patterns have either formed or attempted to form throughout the year there appears to be a broader attempt at a double bottom in 2021.
The double bottom, having recently tested and rejected 1700, would need to breakout from ~1915 to be validated.
This pattern projects 2150 as the target.
Objectively gold was in a very strong uptrend from 2018 through 2020 and after making a new all time high in August 2020 the price has corrected almost 20%. There is clear support at 1700 and resistance at 1900. Continuing range bound price action suggests a mean price of 1800.
The price is not going to reach 2150 on its own volition. Some factor's worth considering include risk-on/risk-off sentiment, Federal Reserve monetary policy, US Dollar valuation, political events, government trading, and the global supply from mining.
Since the double bottom is not validated the current position is neutral with a bias in favour of mean reversion about 1800.
The Commodities Index Looks Set to Go LowerThis index is breaking down after showing bearish divergence and having a false bullish breakout on the Daily and Weekly.
Based off this and the weakness we're seeing in the commodities themselves i expect the prices of Precious metals to begin a new downtrend in the coming weeks and for the price of Thongs such as Wheat and Soy to have a major decline.
I would also expect many Mining Companies to go down such as FCX and SA and for the Value of the US Dollar to rise.
Quick Precious Metal UpdateXAU/USD – Weekly
What a week! $1670 held again as support during the Monday morning flash crash (which was most probably driven by a large liquidation). The weekly candle looks ugly but in terms of the range and support level I talked about last month there is not big change in the bigger picture. For the patient traders who work with limit orders it was a good opportunity to get some long exposure.
For the longs, $1670 needs to hold and for the more risk averse ones we need to see a break to the upside through the base line which comes in at around $1845.
XAU/USD - Daily
As mentioned in my previous month comment the dip enabled patient buyers to get some long exposure. Currently the price is sitting right at the large liquidity pool of $1750 and it probably will consolidate there for a while.
Last week we quickly got tricked by the price pushing through the base line but then on Monday straight through it on the downside again. What remains is the confluence of the $1845 which seems to be the current resistance plus the upper end of the Ichimoku cloud. This is an important level for the bulls. I am expecting some buying momentum to come in if/when we break that level to the upside.
The downside level to watch remains the $1670.
XAU/USD – 4 hours
Yeah… it looks ugly I have to agree. There is not much to add on this chart. It does not show any immediate trade setups.
XAG/USD – Weekly
In no mans land. We are between the two larger liquidity pools which I have drawn already last month. Both of my bullish pattern (the flat and the triangle) are out of scope now. No trade setup as long we are in the middle of the range.
XAG/USD – Daily
Pretty much the same story here. The $22 level shows some intermediate support but I would still wait till we are closer to either the upper or lower end of the range and then check for a potential trade setup.
XAG/USD – 4 hours
It is looking a bit clearer here in terms of bullish trade setups. We need to take out the $26 level before even thinking about any long positions. The downside is already covered by the range we defined on the daily chart.
GDXJ – Weekly
Many potential bullish patterns got erased with the Monday flash crash in Gold. Same here on the potential symmetrical triangle. The Ichimoku cloud is still bullish but the market sentiment does not feel bullish. $31.50 is the support level to watch.
GDXJ – Daily
Maybe we are in a downward moving channel and currently just sitting on the lower end of it. For the brave ones go long here with a target towards $47. But there is no clear stop, so I would rather play it as a 3-leg strategy to go long the first leg now. Place a second bid in the $37 region and the last one at around $33. Then you can place the stop just below the $31.50. Your target is in the region of $56.
GDXJ – 4 hours
No additional comments to make on the 4 hours chart I am afraid…
Strong underlying momentum in Precious MetalsMy 5-7 year outlook. Amazing fundamental and technical picture for precious metals and for the gold & silver mining companies. They are very undervalued relative to the underlying metals they mine and the fundamental picture gets better and better. They're growing cash flows and making very large margins of over 35% on average. Inflation is here and the Federal Reserve & Government are trapped with rates near zero as the economy is beginning to roll over. Large debts of over 130% Debt/GDP necessitates interest rates remaining capped (Fed funds below 2% for at least 6-10 years). Fiscal spending to grow the economy with yield curve control and currency devaluation to devalue the debt load with ignite a commodities and precious metals bull market and cycle that hasn't been seen since the 1970s.
GDX - the beginning of the endThe GDX Gold Miners is one of my personal favourite, and I have had been following it closely over the last couple of years. Since August 2020, where 95% of position was cleared, there was hardly any sustainable long term rally, albeit the March to June 2021 rally that I actually missed. Since then, it pulled back, and is about to revisit the last major lows. This is the beginning of the end... as in, the bearishness is ending. Now, this could take months to pan out and perhaps about 5% downside risk to go.
The daily chart had prices at a lower range having gapped down early in the week. Unlike equities, the recovery was mild, if at all, with Friday gapping down instead. In the form of a megaphone, the range is now going to widen, but am expecting more downside to the target of about 31.50-32.00.
Technicals support the weakness, albeit not extremely weak... just not strong. Looking for a higher low, with MACD bullish divergence in the month to come. Would not be surprised if it breaks down of the megaphone and then breaks back in again to be super bullish.
Until then... I am sitting on my hands.