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Goldminers

GDX -Waiting for a buy setupWe are getting closer and closer to an important buying opportunity in gold miners. Though yesterday we almost tagged the 200 SMA and bounced I still don't see that buying opportunity what i like to see at the gold miners bottom. At the beginning of today's trading we broke above yesterday's high which is usually a buy signal but after a few hours of trading we gave back all the gains and closed in the red. I think we are quite close to the bottom in days - 4-5 days only - but these last few days can be extremely scary as we print the cycle lows. First of all I dont see the volume spike what usually occurs at these intermediate bottoms: The other thing that we stiill have a gap between 20.5 and 20.8 which pulling down price like a magnet: Today was the 5th day since we broke below an important level at 21.41 and usually these breakdowns lasting for 7-8 trading days: Today was day 5 of the breakdown. So I would wait with the buying till next week in the miners as we might have 3-4 red days ahead in the upcomong trading sessions.
AMEX:GDX
by chartwatchers
3
Gold Miners - Take Profits SoonThis is a continuation of my previous post on gold miners. I would recommend checking out that post and the updates to get up to speed on the current trade. Profits so far should be at least 15% if you’re trading leveraged ETF ($DUST). Personally at around 20% gain so far in the trade. I plan to take profits on the entire DUST position soon since GDX is getting close to oversold levels. Probably has a few more days of selling to go based on today’s heavy downward momentum. Maintain overall bearish view of gold miners as long as there is a lack of negative macro news flow to boost gold prices. I’ll be updating this post daily in case general market sentiment start reversing from positive to negative, check this post regularly if you want to get a head start on trading the reversal! You can try to scalp the bounce off the support once GDX is oversold, but don’t over-commit because it’s hard to precisely say how much it’ll bounce.
AMEX:GDXShort
by FireFly450
3
Gold Miners - Bearish Thesis ConfirmedWhy I’m bearish on Gold and Gold Miners in the short to medium term: All the following items provide a positive market sentiment, and a stronger willingness for investors to allocate money to risky assets such as stocks rather than safe haven assets like gold, and therefore selling of gold miners. 1.) Still strong US economy, based on the slew of positive economic data we’ve been seeing. Examples would be low jobless claims, good nominal wage growth and low inflationary pressures. 2.) Long end interest rates (10 yr) are rising due to reduced investor fears, causing a decrease in attractiveness of Gold, which is a non-yielding asset. 3.) US Dollar Index has been consolidating for the last several trading sessions, representing a bullish signal in the short term. Provided that we have a positive economic backdrop in the US currently, probability that it breaks out to the upside is high. 4.) Corporate earnings are likely to keep surprising to the upside, since projections have been lowered so much over the last few months. 5.) More likely for positive rather than negative news to come out regarding US-China trade deal. Both sides are committed and evidence suggests a positive outcome. Feel free to comment or send me a msg if you want to discuss more in detail or if you have different views. You can also check out my blog at gdxdaily.com , this is where I post in much greater detail regarding my analysis.
AMEX:GDXShort
by FireFly450
2
Gold Breaks Through Support As PredictedGold breaks through strong support region, pushed down by positive macro news flow as predicted in my previous post. This completes the descending triangle pattern, was a reversal The support region marked could be changed based on more news flow, will be updated regularly. 1.) More positive earnings surprises will likely follow 2.) Positive trade news is more likely than negative trade news 3.) No Brexit fears currently to support Gold prices Check out my blog gdxdaily.com to see how I determine my investment thesis!
TVC:GOLDShort
by FireFly450
Gold Miners - Time to Short?This was posted on my blog at gdxdaily.com last night, be sure to follow it to get notified first of any new trade ideas! The ideas will also be explained more in detail on the blog. Trade summary: Given recent macro updates I believe the short to medium term outlook for gold miners is starting to look bearish, this is due to multiple factors that will likely boost the broad equity market sentiment. Below are some of the reasons: 1.) Fed committing to their stance that rates are good where they are, and most likely won’t change it for the rest of the year. This gives investors one less thing to worry about since the rates are accommodative right now. With the possibility of rate cuts lower and rate increases back on the table, investors will be less attracted to gold. 2.) The slew of US economic data coming out so far points to a still healthy economy with good job growth. China is also actively injecting their economy with growth as well, so we may get positive economic surprises from their data as well, which will boost market sentiment and drive down gold prices. 3.) The fact that the US and China have a plan to resolve the enforcement issue for the trade deal (which was one of the biggest roadblocks) is a promising sign, we could be getting more positive trade news which will ease investor fears and drive more money flowing from safe assets to riskier ones. 4.) Corporate earnings will be the next big wave of data driving the market. We’ve had many downgrades on earnings projection so far in the last couple of months, therefore the expectations are already low. There’s a high chance for some positive earnings surprises, easing investor fears and more capital will start flowing into the equity markets. Once again, a negative scenario for gold prices. I’ve started to add to my $DUST position, with currently 10% of a full position at an average cost price of $17.5, and will be looking to add more as it retraces. The entry points in the chart are general points where I think it might retrace to, but it may change as I see what the price action looks like. Be sure to check the updates to this post and my blog to see my daily update on any entries I take.
AMEX:GDXShort
by FireFly450
GDX Gold Miners First Take Profit Reached, Still Long Short TermThis is a continued trade based on my previous post. This was posted on my blog yesterday night We have a big week ahead of us with potential updates on several important political event, along with some important economic data being released throughout the week. The news that we should keep our eyes on are updates on the trade deal, and vote outcomes of the Brexit extension set to be voted on Wednesday. US and China are in what seems like the final stretch of signing a trade deal that could help boost the world economy, however we can’t discount the multiple occasions where US trade reps admitted that there are still issues which need to be resolved before a deal can be made. As long as investors are still in the dark, markets will likely trade in a range as the speculation continues. Wednesday is looking like a big day in terms of catalysts that could drive the market in one direction, at least in the very short term. We have the decision on the Brexit extension, as well as CPI numbers coming out in the US. These indicators and events could help Gold break out of its recently tight range and make a strong push in one direction. As previously mentioned in my daily posts, Gold has been consolidating at the bottom end of its descending triangle, meaning it’s found support and more likely to breakout to the upside than downside. As of writing this, Gold is up 0.4% overnight so far and I believe it’ll push up to at least the downward trendline. The US dollar is still relatively flat, and looks to be consolidating as well near the top end of the ascending triangle. My current view is still that it’ll likely trend down after some more sideways trading, however my thesis depends on the price action this week so stay tuned for my daily updates. Yields are starting to slip as investors wait for more catalysts, with CPI numbers and the Fed minutes being the most important ones this week. Gold miners will likely continue its short-term trend upwards given the bullish sign from Gold. While I am bullish on miners in the short term, I will be actively taking profits as it hits the previous resistances marked on the chart. My medium term view is still unclear and depends on further macro development and more concrete directional news flow. I will also be watching the price action throughout the week to gauge sentiment that might be helpful in my predictions. Have a great trading week everyone!
AMEX:GDXLong
by FireFly450
Short Term Bullish On Gold MinersGold miners have seen decoupled correlation with gold prices over the last couple trading sessions; while showing more correlation with broad equity market movements. SP:SPX just broke a key resistance level with heavy volume, meaning bullish moment in the short term. I believe this will help push AMEX:GDX upwards in the short term towards it's recent peak. GDX experienced some profit taking after the 7% surge yesterday due to the Fed leaving rates unchanged and having a more dovish tone. However, despite the selling, GDX managed to pull back into the green, indicating new buyers are coming in. Gold prices should remain supported enough to avoid negatively impacting gold miner stocks. Yields are still in a heavy downward momentum as investors are piling into bonds because of conflicting news regarding the economy. US dollar price action is showing an ascending triangle, therefore indicating that it's still bearish in the short term unless we see a breakout above resistance with strong volume. Positive Economic Catalyst Feds are leaving rates unchanged and derivatives market is pricing in a roughly 50% chance of a rate decrease by 2020. Given that low rates support the attractiveness of gold, gold miners should have a higher probability of increasing as well. Negative Economic Catalyst Once again Feds are reiterating a slow down in the global markets that could affect the US economy, which is in a good state right not, but not impenetrable from external shocks. Still a lot of uncertainty over China trade deal. When will it be signed? What will the details be? How long will the tariffs be kept after a deal is signed? If we do get a sell off due to market fears, this should help lift gold prices. ***Caveats to this analysis: 1.) The resistance at ~22.95 is too strong and not enough buying power to push past it. In this case it's very likely that a new trend will develop in the absence of any further macro developments 2.) Broad equity markets could sell off sooner than expected and cause gold miners to sell off as well. However as mentioned above, if markets sell off rapidly and fear kicks in, gold prices should rise due to its safe haven nature, which supports gold miners.
AMEX:GDXLong
by FireFly450
1
$GDX $NUGT $JNUG Short play - Is this where you want to go long?I rarely post two charts in a day but this one seemed pretty good. Self explanatory chart, Classic support turned resistance. I also see divergence between the price of gold and the gold miners, with gold not moving at resistance and GDX pushing up. I think that signals GDX is over extended. I can update it later to put more detail if needed. Short/sell at the Red rectangle, cover at the green ones. Keep in mind this is 2016-2018, seems pretty solid. If you agree/disagree leave a comment. Update: Forgot to add there's a trendline we're hitting if you connect Jan 23 2018, July 10 2018, and now. That's lot of resistance signals in one place.
AMEX:GDXShort
by teckno05
15
#kozal looks like a bearish set up but.... #kozali was lucky to spot the good entery level at 34,00s (see previos ideas posted) its been a good run and i felt the need to update the idea. intraday chart forming a bearish heand shoulders formation at top. also there is a decent flag formation at the right shoulder. the way i plan to play the chart is: although how bearish it looks dont get carried away and buy the break out above the shoulder. tactical short below 45.00. until than it is a waiting game. good luck!
BIST:KOZAL
by tncckn
GDXJ BreakoutGreat breakout here on GDXJ as investors fly to security with geopolitical instability. We have a breakout of several different levels, making this a potentially very powerful break. SIGNALS: 1. Breaking out of consolidation pattern since beginning of May 2. Breaking downtrend line from 2016 highs 3. Breaking over 200 day moving average Entry: above 34 Target: former resistance around 42 Stop: under breakout level, 33.50 - 34.00 /// !! PM me with any questions about my analysis !! MY TRADING METHOD: I keep my analysis simple. Good analysis always is. I use Price Patterns, Moving Averages, and RSI for my analysis. I use the 1 day for trend analysis and 60 minute for trade entry For my Targets I use Fibonacci projections + measured moves Successful trading means proper risk sizing and trading small so you can stay in the game.
AMEX:GDXJLong
by BerlinTrader591
1