Goldminers
THE GOLDEN CHANNELI went long on miners at points A, and B.
I have been using this channel since October 24 to help analyze whether or not to add to my longs, or if we would drop to my second trend-line. Based on the help we received from Clinton today, and the fact that we closed over 1275, I believe the lowest we will see next week is 1268/69 (this is based on my trend-line, and RSI ticking up). I do not believe we will close below 1270 all week, and I think 1290 is a realistic target. (this is of course unless the Fed decides to raise interest rates in November, which I think is highly improbable). I also do not foresee us dropping down towards the second trend-line unless NFP is very strong (which I also believe will not happen).
I believe Bulls will have the momentum for the upcoming weak based on how this week ended (close over 1275), and I feel that the Fed and the NFP report will help solidify their grasp on the week.
GDX - Bull Market Soon to ResumeWe are nearing a bottom in the gold miners in the form of a wave 2 of the full wave 1 move up from the January low. The recent price movement on Friday gave us the setup for the final leg down as a v of C which can take the shape of a 5-wave impulsive move down or an ending diagonal.
The bottom should be struck between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the larger impulsive wave 1 high of 31.79, aiming for the 22-20 range. Once the correction is complete, we should then be prepared for the larger degree wave 3 move upwards that will take the GDX to at least 50.
GDXJ - Ending Diagonal In ProcessI'm seeing wave C possibly shaping up as an ending diagonal to complete wave 2 of the larger degree correction.
If the price movement follows the blue count on the chart, we should be going down in 3 waves a-b-c to form a bottom around the 50% retracement of the larger impulsive wave 1 high of 52.50, potentially going a bit lower.
This would be an excellent opportunity to catch the following impulsive wave 3 up which will very likely take the GDXJ all the way up to 100 and above.
HMY - Correction Nearing an EndHarmony Gold is following the correction seen across the gold miners. I see two similar counts playing out over the next few weeks:
Blue count: the whole wave C is an ending diagonal and we are currently in wave iv of the final move down.
Red count: an alternative count would see us fall to lower lows beginning of next week to complete wave iii of C and then make one last bounce upwards before the final leg down.
Either count would have HMY bottom within a month or so and potentially take us down to the 2.60-2.40 range.
Gold miners entering buy zoneGold miners are in a similar position to GLD, both are nearing there 50% retracement levels.
If you are a long-term trader, right here would be a nice entry. I would stop out under 17.50. I know some like to wait for price action. That is an option, however, I have sometimes found price action does not always cooperate and you miss the move.
GDX -- entering consolidation phaseGDX needs time to base, predicatively, in a nearly reflective image as the most recent rounded top. Once it settles into moving averages and consolidates, it should move up nicely. I'll be watching tentatively for this trade opportunity to set up.
GOLD USD RATIOIT WILL BE PAINFUL TO TRADE GOLD/USD PAIR UNLESS YOU KNOW TOOLS TO DEPLOY OPTIONS. I am bear on this relationship and probably forming channel trade, but don't count on it too much.
Also from cycle perspective Bull Market from 1999 TILL 2011 is OVER. So better to bet on the short side at least for next few years.
$gdx approaching falling-window resistance.$xauusd and $tip had a couple of down days and I anticipated yesterdays $gdx pullback at the open. I jumped on a few small buys between 30.20 - 30.25 and sold my July 1st buys into the 30.60 recovery. Just like in December, the miners are lagging and I would definitely start to scale-back all weak hands before the 31.33 - 32.14 falling window resistance.
This small (less than 1%) position is just to gamble on the breakout in the event that it moves to the upside quicker than anticipated. I guess I could pair this with something cheap like $jdst but my position right now is negligable.
As far as technicals go, %B is showing some divergence on the Daily. This downward move occurred when it hit 1.0 but relative to the trend, this should not have been in O/B territory. To me, this is an early sign that the trend starting a small correction downward-- possibly with the window-resistance acting as the turning point.
This correction should bounce in the 27.00 area (previous support).
Now, obviously, the trend is still up-- gold is still up. TIPS are still up. I'm still long here but I'm managing my risk. I'm holding small positions (5% of my original position, less than 1% of my available equity) now in #gdx and $hmy.
I'm expecting another pullback at the open today in gold miners, followed by further downward movement until the bounce and finally an attempt to break out of the falling window. I'll be attempting to catch these wicks in accumulation mode and build a decent position.
XAU/USD Market Analysis and Trading Tips 29th June 2016Overview:
The Gold market fell during the day on Tuesday, but did found enough support below at the level of $1305 to bounce slightly. The main trend of Gold is bullish on charts and the $1300 level is looking a strong support level, at this point in time buyers are still interested in in the precious metal . The primary trend of Gold is bullish on charts. On its 4 hourly chart, market is trading above 100 days moving average. It is having important resistance at the level of $1330 and support level at the level of $1300. On its 4 hourly charts, MACD is sustaining in its positive territory and RSI is sustaining in its buying zone indicating the upcoming bearish trend in the oil prices. On intra day basis one can go for buy on lower level strategy.
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GDX test $28?I've been following GDX for a while. Bulls are trying to absorb supply again. If so it is very likely going to test longer term resistance likely established in 2014. I remain bullish above $23 buck
GDX WEEKLY CHART -- MINERS BREAKOUT, CASH WONT BE KING FOR LONGWith all the NIRP's and ZIRP's flying around in an economy based off fraud and debt, this was expected, and now we have the start of the technical indicators to back it up :)
My target area Short Term is 25-28:
- We have the 23% fib retracement from our move down from our All Time Highs in 2011.
- Weekly 200 ma
- Solid price action (horizontal black lines)
- Broke out of our channel to the upside that start in June 2013
-- If tomorrow (April 12th) holds above this channel, that's when I shoot my final bullet
- The top of our bigger channel is in this area
Feel free to comment with questions or ideas :)
Happy Trading!
Pair Trade: STAY LONG GOLD/SHORT GOLD MINERSWhether you're interested in hedging your long gold position or simply want to take advantage of a potential decline in the gold miners, the gold miners present an appealing opportunity in capturing alpha.
Speculative long idea for Gold Miners ETFGuess it is possible to get 15-20% gain here in less than 2 months.
The Bearish ‘Bat’ pattern is forming, point D can be near 16.
Bullish Harami near the lower Bollinger band can be treated as a reversal signal in a short time trend.
Point D is on the way of 200 day MA.
A positive gold seasonality from the end of December till the beginning of February can be a fundamental support for this assumption.
Gold Miners $GDX may be heading for a reversal A Gartley and a Cypher pattern is pointing to the same exact destination for a sell reversal. We have previous structure at $31.31 & $29.38 coupled with confluence with two 1.27 extension ratios. $29.95. and $28.96 at the .786 retracment will be our kill zone.
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