Analysis of short-term gold trading on December 31Fundamentals: The gold market fluctuated at a low level in the U.S. market, and the logic of long orders at the support point entered the market.
At the beginning of the U.S. market on Tuesday (December 31), the gold price was around $2,610. The gold market may be preparing to end 2024 on a weak note, and December is expected to see its first decline in seven years. But there is still considerable optimism in the market before the new year. Despite the current market weakness, gold continues to hold its position in a difficult environment. She pointed out that the sell-off in gold since its October high and the subsequent consolidation were the first major corrections in the precious metal this year. "I am not at all worried about the volatility we have seen, and I think this respite is good for the market," she said.
Even with this disappointing price trend entering the new year, investors should not forget the performance of 2024. Gold prices have seen unprecedented gains, setting new all-time highs about 40 times this year. Gold prices peaked in October, with a full-year increase of more than 26%, the best performance since 1979. Gold prices are set to hit $2,400 an ounce this year in 2024, and they are nearly $400 above that level. Looking ahead, she believes gold still has plenty of room to rise.
Gold prices will struggle as investors continue to focus on the strong resilience of the U.S. economy. She explained that policies proposed by President-elect Trump should support economic growth in the first half of next year, but she expects problems to return. Since winning the presidential election in November, Trump has said he wants to extend the 2017 tax credit. He has threatened to impose tariffs on countries in Asia, the Americas and the European Union. He has also proposed rounding up and deporting millions of illegal immigrants and recently expressed a desire to annex Canada and Greenland.
Policies such as increased import tariffs and extended tax cuts will provide some support to the economy, which has pushed up U.S. bond yields and the dollar. However, she added that these policies will also come at a cost. Everything Trump proposes to do will lead to inflation, raising tariffs and deporting potentially millions of low-wage workers will push up prices, and tax cuts will exacerbate the growing deficit, thereby increasing inflationary pressures. Trump's proposal also has a political cost, as many see his position as a negotiating tactic. She added that this uncertainty will continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal.
Personal operation analysis:
Trend: shock trend
Support: around 2607.00
Resistance: around 2631.50
Strategy:
View logic:
Near 2608, light position, stop loss 2600, take profit around 2623--2635, trailing stop loss 300 points
