Analysis of 9.11 Gold Short-term Operation StrategyOn Tuesday, the US dollar index fluctuated above the 101 mark and finally closed up 0.03% at 101.67. US Treasury yields continued to fall, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closing at 3.650%; the two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, finally closed at 3.607%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.23%, the S&P 500 rose 0.45%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.84%. Major European stock indices closed down across the board, with the German DAX30 index closing down 0.96%; the British FTSE 100 index closed down 0.78%; and the European Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.66%.
Risk Warning on Wednesday
☆At 14:00, the UK will release the monthly GDP rate for the three months of July, the monthly rate of manufacturing output in July, the seasonally adjusted commodity trade account in July, and the monthly rate of industrial output in July;
☆At 20:30 Beijing time, the United States will release the August CPI data. The market expects its annual rate to fall from the previous value of 2.9% to 2.6%, and the monthly rate will remain unchanged at 0.2%; in terms of core CPI, the market expects the annual rate to be 3.2% and the monthly rate to be 0.2%, both consistent with the previous value;
☆At 22:30, the United States will release the EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 6, and the market expects an increase of 764,000 barrels of crude oil;
☆At 1:00 the next day, the United States will hold a 10-year Treasury auction until September 11.
The US CPI in August will rise by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, lower than 2.9% in July. If confirmed, this data is likely to strengthen market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 17-18 meeting.
The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at next week's meeting is 67%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 33%. Although market expectations for rate cuts are divided, overall, investors generally believe that the Fed will make at least one super-large rate cut this year.
Traders in the U.S. interest rate options market are still betting that the Fed will make at least one super-large rate cut this year, although it may not be before the presidential election on November 5. Recent options activity related to the secured overnight financing rate shows that traders are increasingly positioning for a 150 basis point rate cut by the Fed before the January 29 policy decision.
Geopolitical factors have also had an important impact on the gold market. Recently, Ukraine launched drone attacks on several regions of Russia, and the Russian Federal Investigative Committee has initiated a criminal case. The escalation of this situation may lead to increased market concerns about the global economy, thereby driving demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.
In addition, tensions between Israel and Hamas continue to develop. Israel proposed that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar leave Gaza safely in exchange for the organization releasing hostages. This change in the situation may have an impact on the stability of the Middle East, thereby causing fluctuations in global market sentiment.
Gold prices continued to rise on Tuesday, rising for two consecutive trading days. Currently, U.S. Treasury yields continue to weaken, hitting a 15-month low, providing momentum for gold prices to rise; the geopolitical situation remains tense, which also attracts safe-haven buying to support gold prices. Today's short-term focus is on the support area of the 1-hour rising trend line below, and go long on gold after the correction stabilizes. At the same time, investors need to pay close attention to the impact of the upcoming CPI data on the trend of gold.
