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Goldprediction

Gold: Dual Impact of NFP and Geopolitical RisksGood morning, everyone! Yesterday’s intense market fluctuations made fortunes for some and losses for others overnight. As time progresses, we see clearly on the 30-minute chart that MA60 has shifted downward from around 2770 to 2760, while the primary uptrend support has moved up from 2730 to approximately 2740. This suggests that, under MA60 resistance, gold might retrace to test support near 2740. Meanwhile, the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and unemployment data will be key drivers for gold’s direction. And don’t overlook another major factor: a potential response from Iran, which could bolster gold’s safe-haven demand. After reading this, do you feel more clear on your trading strategy? If not, feel free to read it again, or reach out to me—I’m here to help clarify and refine your approach!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by MichaeliaDefoe
Gold after U.S. election : Since rising tensions have played a significant role in the recent increase in gold prices, let’s look at each U.S. presidential candidate’s approach to handling these tensions and their future plans. Kamala Harris, representing the Democratic Party, is focused on diplomatic efforts to reduce conflicts in the Middle East. She generally follows the Biden administration's approach, aiming to ease hostilities through aid and international agreements, including a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. This approach may help stabilize markets by reducing the volatility tied to prolonged conflicts. Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, takes a more aggressive stance. He supports a strong alliance with Israel, endorses military responses to threats from Iran and its regional affiliates, and prioritizes U.S. strength and independence. Trump's “America First” stance could lead to continued or heightened tensions, which historically correlates with higher gold prices due to investor flight to safe-haven assets. In summary: Kamala Harris: Diplomatic de-escalation, which may stabilize gold prices. Donald Trump: Military strength and strong alliances, likely to keep prices high in case of increased tension. These policy differences could significantly impact markets depending on which candidate wins. Please support us by liking and leaving comments!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Market-Analyzer
Gold's Local Minimum: A Magnet for Price Action?So, the trading week is behind us, and it’s time to kick back a bit, assess the price action, and build a trading plan for the upcoming week, keeping the main drivers in mind. Today, let’s focus on Gold. Looking at the COT reports: there’s a divergence between the positions of the Commercials and the movement of the underlying asset. What does that mean? It suggests that hedgers don’t see the need to increase their hedge positions (in the case of Gold, that means short positions). The interpretation here is that there’s a high probability of a correction in the underlying asset. Retail positions show an average aggregated long position around $2707 (according to open-source data). So, for now, the average positions are in the green, which means the bulls are feeling good, but that’s not all... Remember that level $2707; we’ll come back to it later. The options sentiment is mixed, with some repositioning in portfolios targeting both up and down, but with a slight bias. The specifics of these adjustments tell me that a correction is expected, but overall, the options traders still see the trend moving upward. Now, let’s take a look at the chart and summarize. Remember that level $2707 I mentioned earlier? Let’s find it on the chart. Oops... turns out that’s a local minimum. So, here’s the deal: there’s a level with liquidity (open positions + local minimum), in other words, we have a "magnet" that will definitely attract the prices. Personally, I stick to a trading strategy of not trading against the trend, even if a correction is confirmed by my analysis. But for some, that potential downside might look appealing enough to open a short position. Good Luck and Have a Nice Weekend!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ClashChartsTeam
11.1 Gold shock awaits non-agricultureJudging from Wednesday's ADP, non-farm payrolls on Friday should also maintain good growth. The same is true for the initial clearing last night. The sharp retracement before the data is basically the early digestion of the data. 1. The price broke the morning starting point before the US market and rebounded at 6-8 o'clock. This pattern must not have fallen much. We have been emphasizing this point of view to everyone recently: Don't buy more twice when gold retreats in the US market. After the increase is too large, it is easy to fall by a large margin. Double bottoms, 618, and other positions are not caught, and there is no rebound. But compared with yesterday's empty, it is the rhythm. Continuous failures and no operating mentality are easy to form. If you can't get started when you see it right, and you can't hold back and get started, it's wrong. 2. The morning is still a cyclical rise. Intraday analysis: 1. A sharp drop in the rise, the first day is still a bull correction, which has been seen countless times before. 2. The continuous sharp drop breaks the bottom, which changes the short-term bull direction. 3. There will be non-agricultural data tonight. Before the non-agricultural data, the overall market should not change much. 4. If the bearish outlook continues, the rebound in the morning is focused on the European session. If the European session continues to rebound, the US session will inevitably fluctuate. If the market is weak, the European session will retreat first. At present, it is obviously the top of the hourly big Yin line at 2757, because this position breaks the position of the decline and rebound at 382. And there is no high point of correction in the early morning, so it can only be arranged at the top of the big Yin line. At the same time, the non-agricultural data is divided into two parts: 1. Look at the second retracement before the non-agricultural data. 2. Whether the non-agricultural data can continue the decline of yesterday depends on the data. Last month, it was 254,000, and this time it is expected to be only 11.3. Whether it is from the initial claims or from ADP, it is impossible to be lower than 11.3. It can only be high. How high it is depends on the data performance. Therefore, the worst non-agricultural data is also bad for gold. It just depends on how bad it is. For example, ADP rebounds first and then falls, or it retreats directly. As long as the data is higher than 150,000, the pullback is also empty, but no matter what, the European session is very critical. The European session continues to rebound and is strong. The US session fluctuates, but the European session is weak, and the probability of breaking the bottom is high.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by David_strategy
GOLD Analysis | Intraday Chart ForecastGold prices rise in early European trade after sliding in the previous session, with investors awaiting U.S. payrolls data for more insights on the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Futures trade 0.5% higher at $2,764.00 a troy ounce following a 2% fall on profit-taking and increasing bets that the U.S. central bank will take a more cautious approach to rate cuts in the months ahead. "The fact that the core PCE rose the most on a monthly basis since April--along with strong spending and robust growth data released earlier this week--trimmed the Fed cut bets," Swissquote Bank's Ipek Ozkardeskaya says in a note. Still, prices continue to be supported by strong demand for safe-haven assets due to heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and uncertainty around the U.S. election. 🔴 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ------------------------------- That said, Gold failed the bullish impulsive structure triggering a bearish leg that pushed the price directly to the potential support area around 2732. If Gold manages to hold this area (already touched once), we do not exclude an irregular wave B, with a potential new Top in wave 5. If our impulsive structure had not failed, above the 2,800 area it would have been interesting to try to sell Gold (see chart/analysis below). That said, let's take one step at a time, and therefore our focus will be on the support area, for now. 📊 POTENTIAL SELL TRADE ----------------------------------- Thanks for watching & support.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
GOLD 4H CHART MARKET UPDATEHey Everyone, Another great day on the chart for us today with price rejection on the final range after hitting all our targets. As shared yesterday we don't like chasing targets all the way to the top on a new range and safer to buy dips and that's what we have been doing, Today once again we were able to use our 1H chart levels to buy 30 to 40 pip dips from our strategic levels even against todays trend. That's the power of our chart setups!! We now have a gap left on the top of the range and seeing price reject into the 4H chart retracement range. We expect a reaction here for a bounce or a cross and lock below this range will see the swing range. We are now also seeing price back in the range on both 1H and 4H chart and therefore the levels and our cross and lock weighted levels are active once again, for us to track and trade the movement. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2760 (EMA5 LOCK ABOVE 2737 WILL FURTHER CONFIRM THIS) - DONE POTENTIALLY 2779 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2779 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2797 POTENTIALLY 2814 BEARISH TARGETS 2737 - DONE 2715 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2715 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2693 - 2669 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
16
XAUUSD: Wait for a drop before rising, target 2800Yesterday, Wednesday, the United States released the October "small non-farm" data. The ADP employment in October recorded 233,000, the largest increase since July 2023. These figures are contrary to expectations of economic slowdown after the Boeing employee strike in October and the two brutal hurricanes and attacks on the US East Coast ports. The subsequent release of the US third quarter real GDP annualized growth rate recorded 2.8%, lower than the expected and previous value of 3%. Consumer spending, which accounts for the largest share of economic activity, increased by 3.7%, the largest increase since the beginning of 2023. At the same time, data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the third quarter of the United States rose by 2.2%, roughly in line with the Fed's goals. Spot gold continued to hit a record high, hitting the $2,790 mark during the day, but failed to get above this level. From the current point of view, 2,790 is very likely not the high point of gold, but the risk of retracement also needs to be considered. Therefore, we can't blindly be bullish, but need to wait for a retracement before considering buying
TVC:GOLDLong
by AntonyTP
Is now the best time to short gold prices?I don't think so. I believe you have read the article I posted yesterday. If not, read it again. Is the accuracy of the fast trading strategy amazing? Indeed. This is the strength of the fast trading strategy analysis team. At present, the values ​​mentioned yesterday have been fully achieved today. Today, I led all members to go long on gold prices again to expand profits. There are about 9 profitable orders. You can refer to the fast trading strategy grouping Tomorrow's trading direction: Check above to see if the position of 2786 can be successfully broken through. If not, you can refer to the opportunity to sell above 2786 and buy near 2770 tomorrow. If it breaks through, then 2800 points is not far away. At present, there is no major news to promote it. Focus on the initial jobless claims data on Thursday night and the release of non-farm data on Friday. This week's time is also very tight. After all, good trading opportunities want to expand profits. Members of the fast trading team are no exception. So I am also busy. Market analysis for three days this week. The accuracy of the signals is obvious to all. Trading is actually very simple. As long as there is trading funds in the account, everyone can leave me a message. Everyone has equal opportunities. No one wants to be a person who keeps losing money! Everyone agrees, right? There are only two trading opportunities left this week, and the trading space is still very large. The proportion of making money. The probability of making 70% profit on 100k is more than 95%. The probability of making 100% profit is more than 85%. The above are all cumulative data. People who continue to pay attention know this. Regarding trading, this is all I will notify you today. If you have any questions, you can leave me a message at any time. I will reply and solve them in time when I see them.
TVC:GOLDShort
by George_parse
Gold's rising momentum continues unabated, continue to focus on As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold is often favored during periods of geopolitical turmoil. So far this year, gold prices have risen 35% and are expected to record their best annual performance since 1979. The intensified conflict between Israel and Lebanon has led to tensions, further boosting market demand for gold. Israel's recent air strikes have caused a large number of civilian casualties, attracting widespread attention and condemnation from the international community. The Lebanese Prime Minister said that the two sides may reach a ceasefire agreement in the next few days. Although this news may ease short-term tensions, market concerns about the future situation remain. The release of US third-quarter economic data showed that GDP grew 2.8% month-on-month, and consumer spending grew 3.7% at the fastest rate in a year and a half. Despite the strong economic performance, inflation has slowed, with the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rising only 2.2%. These data provide new clues to the Fed's policy path. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week. Despite strong economic growth, gold remains the first choice for investors in an uncertain environment. As the election approaches, the market is full of doubts about the future direction of US economic policies, and the safe-haven demand for gold may rise further. The supply and demand of gold also affects the price. Uncertainty in the global economy has prompted investors to increase their allocation to gold, especially in a low-interest rate environment, where the attractiveness of gold as an interest-free asset has increased. At the same time, the loose policies of central banks around the world continue to support gold prices. In response to the economic slowdown, many central banks have generally adopted measures such as interest rate cuts and quantitative easing, which has further boosted demand for gold. On Wednesday, it hit a record high of $2,789.89 per ounce. On Wednesday, mainly driven by the uncertainty of the US presidential election and geopolitical tensions, investors' demand for safe-haven assets increased significantly. Gold hit a record high again on Wednesday. Today, investors continue to pay attention to the 1-hour support area below 2,778, and go long on gold after the correction stabilizes. Thank you for your likes, thank you
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Yuliya1l11
10.31 gold box vibration???Gold is mainly affected by the following three aspects: 1: The October US non-farm payrolls data will be announced at 20:30 on Friday. The US September ADP employment data released on Wednesday increased significantly beyond expectations. Next tonight, the US September PCE price index and the number of initial jobless claims for the week will be released. 2: The US presidential election next Tuesday (November 5th), there are less than 4 trading days left. Who will eventually enter the White House in the battle between the Donkey and the Elephant parties? Especially on November 5th, the day of the election, the gold market will definitely fluctuate violently! 3: Geopolitical risk events, North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile around 7:10 this morning, and Iran will say that it will retaliate against Israel before November 5th. With the reshaping of the world pattern, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are spreading to the world. As the price of gold approaches $2,800, bulls and bears diverge again. The last time gold approached $2,700, it adjusted around $2,685, which ultimately did not affect the upward trend. It just threw the bulls off the train during the adjustment, which also hit the bulls' morale for short-term operations. This time, when it approached $2,800, the bulls paused. On Wednesday, the market repeatedly washed between 2,790 and 2,770. In addition, the heavy pound data will be released today, tomorrow and next week. The suspense will naturally be left to the non-agricultural data today and tomorrow night. 1 hour, it quickly fell back to the 2,770 point where it started to rise in the morning, forming a high-level box shock. At present, the gold price has not stabilized at 2,790. Don't rush to chase more, but pay attention to the direction of the 2,790-70 box range breakthrough, and try to avoid chasing the edge position within the box.
TVC:GOLDShort
by David_strategy
1
GOLD ANALYSIS: Sell above 2.800?Hi Traders| Gold remained above $2,780 per ounce on Thursday, holding at record levels due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid uncertainties surrounding the US elections and geopolitical risks. Markets are also evaluating the latest US economic data, which shows a 2.8% annualized GDP growth for the third quarter, slightly below the 3% expectation. Meanwhile, personal consumption and sales rose significantly, indicating American consumers' resilience and maintaining elevated inflation risks, as highlighted by unexpectedly high core PCE price figures from the last quarter. Still, traders are poised for further monetary easing at the upcoming meeting, which benefits gold as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion. Investors are now awaiting PCE figures and payroll data due Thursday and Friday. 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS That said our bullish setup is still in play with Target 2 (see chart below), but at the same time, above the 2,800 area an important resistance area and some Reversal Patterns on lower time frames should appear in the short term. If this happens we can try to take a short position. 🔴 ANALYSIS TARGET 1 (long/bullish) (click & play on chart below) 🔴 ANALYSIS TARGET 2 (long/bullish) (click & play on chart below) Thanks for watching.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TheAnonymousBanker
ADP data is coming soon! Gold shortThe market performance on Wednesday (October 30) continued the recent strong upward momentum. The price of gold hit $2,789.83/ounce in early trading, setting a new record high and rising sharply by more than $15. With the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the intensification of geopolitical risks, gold has once again become a safe haven choice for investors. Technical analysis After breaking through the resistance area of ​​2,780-2,785 US dollars/ounce, the price of gold became an offensive signal for bulls. The price of gold may further push towards the $2,800/ounce mark. At present, any meaningful correction is expected to find good support around $2,750/ounce. If there is a subsequent sell-off in the price of gold, it may push the price of gold to the support level of $2,732-2,730/ounce, or even further down to the $2,715/ounce area. Today's focus data: US unemployment rate in October US non-farm payrolls in October (10,000 people) Today's expected trend of gold prices can focus on the fluctuations between the support level of $2,765.00/ounce and the resistance level of $2,800.00/ounce. Under the current market sentiment and technical conditions, gold is still a worthy investment option.
TVC:GOLDShort
by David_strategy