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Goldprediction

XAUUSD Bouncing back to 3450?3380.27, 3383.94 and 3386.08 three daily consecutively candlestick patter with continuted series of higher low formed the daily support. Previous daily candle just closed at support with an ATR of 1.1ATR, which is quite large in the opposite direction of the major trend while the price is trading above 10ema in the daily. In 4h there is also 3 ATR ( overall) bearish move is spotted giving a high probability for this market to bounce back to the daily resistance to the major direction of the trend. We have a buy position at this level and will keep you posted for more updates!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ForexWizard01
3400 3380 are the two points that determine the trend of gold📰 Impact of news: 1. Geopolitical risks 2. Expected Fed policy 📈 Market analysis: This week, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, retail sales data, initial jobless claims and geopolitical situation will be the core factors affecting global markets. In the short term, gold rebounded after hitting the 3383 line. This round of decline was relatively rapid. At the same time, there is a certain resistance at the 3405-3410 line above in the short term, which is also the main reason for our long orders to leave the market. In the short term, it is recommended to first look at the support situation at the 3380 line below, and then enter the long order after obtaining effective support above this position. On the contrary, if it falls below this short-term support, the gold price is expected to fall to the 3350 mark! For the evening layout, it is recommended to focus on the 3400 long-short watershed, pay attention to the 3410 line of resistance, and pay attention to the 3380 line of support below. 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3390-3380 TP 3400-3410-3420 SELL 3400-3390 TP 3380-3360-3350 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AllenBoswell-2
Adjustments do not change the trend, continue to be bullishToday, gold opened high at 3448, and fell under pressure after reaching 3452. After repeatedly confirming resistance at high levels, it went down. We arranged short orders in the 3445-3450 area, successfully reached the target of 3330, and secured profits. Then the market fell back to around 3409 and stabilized and rebounded. We arranged long orders to stop profit near 3420. The current market is still in a bullish trend after the shock and retracement. Adjustment does not change the trend. Retracement is an opportunity. The key is to find the right entry point. From a technical perspective, the support below focuses on the 3410-3405 area, and the key support is at 3400-3390. If the daily level stabilizes in the above area, the upward structure will continue, and the short-term is still expected to test the previous high. Short orders need to strictly control risks, and the trend of low and long is still the main theme. Gold operation strategy: Buy gold when it falls back to around 3410-3405, and consider covering positions when it falls back to 3400-3395, with the target at 3430-3440. For more real-time strategies, I will remind you at the key points as soon as possible,🌐 remember to pay attention! If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
Middle East tensions ease? Prices fall?Information summary: Iran sent a peace signal to the United States and Israel through Arab intermediaries - requiring the United States not to carry out air strikes as a prerequisite for restarting nuclear negotiations, and emphasizing to Israel that controlling violence is in the common interest. Under the influence of this news, gold turned downward several times, reaching a low of $3,383, and then rebounded slightly. The current price fluctuates slightly above $3,400. Market analysis: Technical analysis shows that the current price has broken through the key resistance area of ​​the previous high and the middle track resonance. The 4-hour chart continues to be bullish under the support of the middle track, and the short-term sideways adjustment is a normal accumulation of upward momentum. If the integer mark of $3,400 can be maintained, the hourly chart is expected to continue the upward trend after a narrow range of fluctuations, and accelerate to a new high after breaking through; on the contrary, if this position is lost, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of trend reversal. The geopolitical crisis continues to ferment, injecting medium- and long-term safe-haven demand into gold. Combined with the strong closing pattern at the weekly level, the core operation strategy should be to buy on the pullback, focusing on the 3400-line long-short dividing line. At present, the price can be arranged for long orders, and the target will be the previous high point after breaking through 3415, but the risk of falling back from the high point must be strictly prevented. Good luck to everyone in the new week.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Quaid_1
The situation has eased, and gold has pulled back! Although Iran has released a signal of easing, Israel's action plan remains unchanged and the situation remains tense. Just recently, Israeli missiles attacked Iran's national news TV station. Gold has only fallen back, and it is definitely not turning around. Gold continues to be bullish, and there are still long positions near 3400. Overall, it continues to look above 3460. With the situation easing, it began to pull back. The fermentation of this round of news has restrained the big funds and did not test the high point of 3500 upwards. Overall, the increase in gold prices is not large, and there is still a process of pulling. The fundamentals have not changed, and gold is still in a bull market. Today's trend is obviously still mainly washing the market. The big negative line came down and then pulled up strongly. The bottom line is 3380. It is obviously the support of the market and the bottom signal. This 3380 is the previous high point and the future support. At present, it is to keep an eye on this position and continue to increase positions near 3400. It's that simple.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
1
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Great start to the week with our chart idea playing out to perfection once again!! We started with our Bullish target at 3440 hit followed with no ema5 cross and lock confirming the perfect rejection, showcasing the accuracy of our levels. This rejection went onto hitting our Bearish target, followed with ema5 cross and lock opening 3393, which was also hit perfectly. We will now look for ema5 lock below 3393 to open the swing range or failure to lock below will see the upper Goldturns tested again. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 3440 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3340 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3463 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3463 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3483 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3483 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3508 BEARISH TARGETS 3418 -DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3418 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3393 DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3393 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3372 3353 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3353 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 3330 3306 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
7
XAU/USD Bullish Continuation SetupThe chart illustrates a bullish market structure for XAU/USD, with price action currently trending upwards. Key technical observations: Support Zone: Price has recently bounced from a support zone around 3,399.710, indicating strong buying interest. Bullish Projection: A bullish continuation is expected. The chart outlines a potential scenario with a minor retracement towards 3,432.835 or 3,399.710, followed by a strong upward move. Targets: Immediate resistance is around 3,502.669. If broken, price may aim for 3,550.351. Final projected target lies near 3,680.000, which aligns with a historical supply zone. Indicators: The green enveloping bands suggest increasing volatility, with the price respecting the upper band, supporting bullish momentum. Conclusion: XAU/USD appears poised for a bullish breakout continuation. A potential pullback could offer a buy opportunity, targeting higher resistance zones as long as the structure remains intact
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ZareeFxTradingAac
Iran releases easing signals, gold is still bullish 📣Golden News 1. Iran sends a signal of easing. U.S. media reported that under the pressure of Israeli air strikes, Iran has used Arab intermediaries to send a peace signal to the United States and Israel - asking the United States not to carry out air strikes as a prerequisite for restarting nuclear negotiations, and emphasizing to Israel that controlling violence is in the common interest. 2. Israel's firm stance. Israeli warplanes fly freely over the Iranian capital, and Iran's counterattack is ineffective. Israel is still focused on dismantling Iran's nuclear facilities and weakening its theocratic regime, and there is no motivation to cease fire in the short term. 3. Gold's reaction and strategy. Iran's peace proposal caused the price of gold to plummet to as low as $3,382. However, since the situation in the Middle East has not eased significantly, it is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the support level of $3,400. ⭐️Set gold price: 🔥Sell gold area: 3465-3475 SL 3485 TP1: 3450 USD TP2: 3440 USD TP3: 3430 USD 🔥Buy gold area: 3390-3388 USD SL 3383 USD TP1: 3400 USD TP2: 3410 USD TP3: 3422 USD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
1
Gold continues to rise! When will the price of gold fall?Market news: In early Asian trading on Monday (June 16), London gold prices continued to rise last week, hitting a nearly seven-week high of $3,451/ounce, as Israel and Iran launched a new round of attacks on each other on Sunday (June 15), exacerbating market concerns that escalating wars may trigger wider regional conflicts, and international gold continued to receive support from safe-haven buying.The continued rise of gold during the conflict depends on whether it is in a bull market and whether the conflict is likely to escalate. The inflow of funds into gold stock ETFs shows an increase in retail interest, especially silver outperforming spot gold, suggesting that market sentiment is turning. In addition to the geopolitical situation, this week will also usher in the test of the US retail sales monthly rate (commonly known as "terror data") and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.This trading day also needs to pay attention to the US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in June and the G7 Leaders' Summit, and pay attention to China's May total retail sales of consumer goods and China's May industrial added value annual rate. Technical Review: The technical price of gold is in good condition with the buying structure of the trend. The MA10/7/5-day moving averages on the daily chart remain open upward, the RSI indicator is hooked upward, and the price is running in the upper and middle track of the Bollinger Bands. The moving average system of the short-term four-hour chart maintains a golden cross opening upward, the price gradually moves up from the high point of the MA10-day moving average, and the Bollinger Bands remain open upward in the same hourly chart. Affected by the market fundamentals, gold has triggered risk aversion.The price of gold continues to rise, and the graphics of various time periods have formed obvious and strong support. In the daily chart, gold fell back to the trend line support after the triangle convergence breakthrough, and ushered in a rising trend again. In the short term, the upward momentum of gold is still strong.      Based on the last round of retracement low of $3120 as the starting point of the wave structure, the push of the third wave may cause the price of gold to rise to $3600-3640. Combined with the current fundamentals, news and geopolitical situation, the medium- and long-term upward trend of gold is far from over. Today’s analysis: At present, the entire market is still affected by the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Gold has been at a high level for a long time. If there is no turning point, the gold price will continue to remain above 3400 today. We will have the opportunity to see the gold price refresh the historical high of 3500 again today or tomorrow, and the probability is also very high. Then our operation idea is to buy to the end before the trend changes! The trend of the gold one-hour market is still strong. From the short-term trend, it continues to maintain a high-level shock pattern, and the low point continues to rise. The high point has been continuously broken. Although the high opening and high movement of the Asian market failed to be directly continued, the high and fall back just gave us the opportunity to buy in! Operation ideas: Buy short-term gold at 3420-3423, stop loss at 3411, target at 3450-3470; Sell short-term gold at 3468-3471, stop loss at 3480, target at 3420-3400; Key points: First support level: 3423, second support level: 3410, third support level: 3392 First resistance level: 3458, second resistance level: 3467, third resistance level: 3483
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NuggetsWarriors
Gold----Buy near 3417, target 3440-3450Gold market analysis: The continuous bombing of Israel and Iran for several days has allowed gold to stand on 3400 again. The big tombstone before the weekly line was wiped out, and the weekly line closed with a big positive line again, and formed a positive-enclosing-negative pattern. This is the long-term rebound caused by geopolitical factors. There is an old saying in the market that cannonballs are always worth a lot of gold. We are not sure how long the situation between Iran and Israel will last, but what is certain is that the buying situation is obvious. The next operation is to follow the buying. I estimate that gold will continue to rise this week. In addition, under such fundamentals that control the market, we must strictly carry out each order with a loss. The market will not change the trend because you resist the order. Following the trend is the kingly way. In the Asian session, we first focus on the hourly support of 3417 and the shape support of 3419. The position of 3417 is also the watershed of strength and weakness in the short term. If it breaks, it will reach around 3407. In addition, 3451 is the top of the daily line. There was a dive at this position before. If the daily line cannot stand on it for a long time, there is also the possibility of another dive. 3407 is a hurdle in the big cycle. If it breaks, it may bring a waterfall drop. Support 3417, strong support 3407, suppression 3451, the watershed of strength and weakness in the market is 3417. Fundamental analysis: There are many fundamental analyses and data in the recent period. Geopolitical factors are the main reason for its violent fluctuations. In addition, there is a holiday in the United States this week, and there is also a Federal Reserve interest rate result. Operation suggestion: Gold----Buy near 3417, target 3440-3450
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NuggetsWarriors
Buy on dips and seize rising opportunities📰 Impact of news: 1. Geopolitical risks 2. Expected Fed policy 📈 Market analysis: The market opened higher in the morning and then continued to fall. From a medium-term perspective, the market is still in a medium-term bullish position. The price will only be under further pressure if it breaks below the weekly support. Observing from the daily level, the price broke through the daily resistance again last Wednesday and continued to soar after the breakthrough. The current price is testing the monthly high, and the subsequent gains and losses of the previous high are the key. Judging from the 1H chart, the short-term death cross continues to fall. At the same time, according to the 4H level, as time goes by, we need to pay attention to the support of 3413-3403. This support is the key watershed of the short-term trend. As long as it does not fall below this support, the bulls still have a chance. 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3413-3403 TP 3430-3440 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AllenBoswell-2
Gold short-term strategy 📊Technical aspects Gold technicals continued the bullish unilateral oscillation upward rhythm. The daily level closed with a strong positive for three consecutive trading days. The overall price continued the bullish unilateral oscillation upward rhythm. Today, the market opened high at 3448, and the highest reached 3452 and then fell back. So far, the lowest fell back to 3409 and rebounded. The current market trend is to go long on the retracement. The trend remains unchanged. Don’t be misled by the retracement adjustment. From the 1-hour market analysis, the support below is around 3408-10, and the short-term bullish strong dividing line moves up to the 3388-93 level. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to maintain the same low-long rhythm. Short positions against the trend need to be cautious. There is a high probability that the short-term will continue to rush up and test the previous high. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy in the channel, please pay attention. 💰 Strategy Package Long Position:3410-3420
TVC:GOLDLong
by TheodoreSilas
Gold, continued to rise after a pullback 📌 Driving events Israel and Iran launched a new round of attacks on each other on Sunday (June 15), exacerbating market concerns that the escalation of the war could trigger a wider regional conflict, and gold continued to receive support from safe-haven buying. (The author believes that according to media reports, Iranian leaders have shown a tougher attitude, and Iran cannot be ruled out to give Israel a strong counterattack, so the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may escalate in the next few days, and gold as a safe-haven asset will shine even brighter. Kremlin: (On Putin's possible mediation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict) Russia is ready to intervene at any time if necessary. (The author hopes that the two countries will be reconciled as soon as possible) 📊Comment Analysis 1-hour chart: The rising channel breaks down, and short-term shorting is at 3442. 💰Strategy Package Today's US market plans to sell high and buy low in the 3408-3452 range. If the range breaks, follow the trend, strictly lighten the position and set a good stop loss. ⭐️ Note: I hope traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the number of lots that matches your funds I hope everyone will set rules, control emotions, and take a long-term view, and slowly get rid of the control of desire, be at ease in the trading market, find their own way to make money, and truly enjoy the fun and rewards brought by trading.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
The international situation is bad. Gold fell back.Information summary: Latest news: Israeli fighter jets "flew freely" over Tehran, and Iran lost air supremacy over the entire west. Israel's goal turned to a wider range of Iranian military and infrastructure. Iran's counterattack, Tel Aviv, Haifa and other Israeli cities are being attacked by Iranian missiles. Both sides are currently suffering heavy losses. But the price of gold fell back at this time; I think the biggest reason is that this week, the global "super central bank week" is about to hit, the market will usher in a very critical Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and central banks such as Japan, Switzerland and the United Kingdom will also hold monetary policy meetings one after another, and investors are on high alert. Under the influence of multiple conditions, the price of gold has a technical correction. Technical analysis: From a technical point of view, the impact of the conflict in the Middle East did not directly push up prices, but instead rushed up and fell back, which shows that the market has great pressure on the upward trend. Therefore, for the upward trend, it is necessary to be relatively conservative. From the position point of view, the support below is around 3410. From a trading perspective, most traders are waiting for the release of some data, which will change the overall trend of gold. However, according to the latest analysis of 14 Wall Street analysts, 10 analysts expect prices to continue to rise. So I guess that this time the gold price pullback is accumulating energy for upward movement. At present, the price has started to rise after falling back to around 3410. The point of this pullback rebound is expected to stop around 3440, and then start to fluctuate at a high level. If the price breaks through 3440 strongly and stabilizes above this position, the price may hit the upward pressure level of 3455 again.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Quaid_1
Analysis of gold trend on June 16! 📣Gold information: Gold prices (XAU/USD) climbed to $3,445 in early Asian trading on Monday, the highest level in more than a month, as rising tensions in the Middle East and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Investors remain focused on geopolitical risks despite stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data on Friday. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index jumped to 60.5 in June, well above market expectations of 53.5 and 52.2 in May. However, the market largely shrugged off the data. Instead, attention turned to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, with Israel's recent attack on Iran fueling concerns about instability in the wider region. In response, Iranian authorities warned that they would "respond firmly to any adventurism," which boosted gold's appeal amid global uncertainty. ⭐️Technical review and analysis: For the current short-term operation of gold, it is recommended to rebound high and go long, with the upward resistance level of 3450-3500 and the downward support level of 3385-3335. ⭐️Set gold price: 🔥Sell gold area: 3465-3475 SL 3485 TP1: $3450 TP2: $3430 🔥Buy gold area: $3390-$3388 SL $3383 TP1: $3400 TP2: $3422
TVC:GOLDShort
by labaronAA
1
XAUUSD:Waiting to go long For gold I am still bullish, do long, rather than blindly chase long. Today's lowest reretreat to around 3408, from the short-term level or long willingness is stronger, the hourly level is a little pressure, trading can wait for the pullback before buying long, the important support below 3404. Short-term support looks at 3407-12 Trading Strategy: BUY@3407-12 TP:3427-30 ↓↓↓ More detailed strategies and trading will be notified here ↗↗↗ ↓↓↓ Keep updated, come to "get" ↗↗↗
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Boooob_
GOLD's rise has been steady, decisive move aheadGold is the focus, plain and simple. We’re in an ascending channel, and price is respecting that structure with precision, higher highs, and no major signs of exhaustion yet. Recently a clear resistance level was just taken out, and now I am watching for the classic retest. That breakout? A big deal, and a strong clue as well. If that zone holds as support, that’s a green light for a potential upmove toward 3,460 which matches the top of the channel. But if it fails, we could expect a slight pullback, it might mean we could be in for a healthy dip before the next move. Bottom line: follow the structure, and don’t force trades here without confirmation first
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by TrendDiva
35
Gold Reclaims Bullish Zone—Perfect Time for a Swing EntryGold has once again reclaimed bullish momentum after breaking through the key support zone around $3,412, previously a stubborn ceiling that had acted as resistance multiple times throughout late May and early June. The break above this level—validated by a decisive green Supertrend flip—indicates a short-term trend reversal in favor of buyers. After a brief consolidation phase, XAUUSD formed a solid breakout candle, confirming upward momentum. The current price action sits comfortably above the Supertrend line, which is now acting as dynamic support, while volume has picked up notably during the move up—an important confirmation of institutional interest and breakout strength. Trade Setup Breakdown • Entry: Above the $3,412 breakout area (now acting as support) • Stop Loss: Below the key support zone, ideally near $3,373–$3,375 to allow for wick re-tests and avoid premature exits • Target/TP: Resistance zone marked near $3,484–$3,500, which aligns with a prior consolidation ceiling from late April and early May. This target offers a risk-reward ratio of approx. 2.3:1, which is favorable for a swing position. • Re-entry Opportunity: If gold retraces back to the $3,373–$3,383 zone (support cluster), it would provide a high-probability re-entry while keeping the same TP of $3,500. Why the Bias Is Bullish 1. Structure Break & Supertrend Flip The key breakout above previous resistance was clean and confirmed by the Supertrend flip to green, a historically reliable short-term bullish signal. 2. Volume Confirmation Volume spikes on the breakout candles confirm real buying pressure—not just a false breakout or low-liquidity movement. 3. Support Retest Potential The $3,412–$3,383 zone now forms a strong demand area where buyers are likely to defend their positions if price pulls back. This zone also aligns with historical congestion from earlier price action. 4. Macro Context (Not in chart but relevant) Ongoing economic uncertainty, rising global tensions, and interest rate speculation continue to boost gold's safe-haven appeal. Traders are increasingly rotating into gold during periods of macro volatility. Outlook Gold is likely to continue climbing toward the $3,500 mark unless it closes below $3,373 on high volume. Bulls appear to be in control, and even a minor pullback could serve as a buying opportunity. As long as the price remains above the flipped Supertrend and $3,373 support, the bullish case remains intact.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SupertradeOfficial
XAUUSD: Analysis June 16Gold has a lot of momentum to increase and could head towards testing the all-time high around 3500 as there are too many risks emerging, from geopolitical developments to interest rate outlook, and tariffs. Major conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, trade war between the US and the rest of the world, ... are all sudden risk support that makes gold likely to surge in the short term. Gold, after increasing around 3450 this morning, is currently correcting down. But overall, the uptrend with gold is still solid after breaking the downtrend channel. However, we should avoid buying in strong corrections. The support area around 3400 will be the ideal place for us to BUY today. And the resistance area 3440 - 3445 will be where we SELL.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Stone_Haven
2
Oil Extends Rally as Israel-Iran Conflict Stokes Supply FearsBrent jumps 5.5 %, bullion hits fresh records, but analysts still see $65 crude by Q4 if key shipping lanes stay open The crude-oil market loves nothing more than a geopolitical headline, and the one that flashed across terminals this past weekend was a whopper: escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran. Within minutes of the first wire stories, Brent crude vaulted 5.5 % to an intraday high of $76.02 a barrel—its largest single-session pop since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022—before giving back part of the gain to settle just under $76. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traced a similar arc, peaking at $74.11 and closing fractionally lower. At the same time, investors stampeded into traditional havens. COMEX gold pierced $2,450 an ounce for the first time, while silver sprinted above $33—blowing past the decade-old high set during the meme-metal frenzy of 2021. The twin moves in energy and precious metals underscore how fragile risk sentiment has become even as global demand growth, OPEC discipline, and U.S. shale resilience point to a more balanced physical market later this year. Below we dissect the drivers of crude’s latest surge, explore the scenarios that could push prices back toward—or away from—the $65 handle by the fourth quarter, and explain why bullion refuses to loosen its grip on record territory. ________________________________________ 1. What Sparked the Spike? 1. Tit-for-tat escalation. Reports of Israel striking Iran-linked assets in Syria and Iran responding with drone attacks near the Golan Heights raised fears of a direct Israel-Iran confrontation—a worst-case scenario that could spill into the Strait of Hormuz and threaten 20 % of global seaborne oil. 2. Thin pre-holiday liquidity. Monday volume was 30 % below the 20-day average with several Asian markets closed, exaggerating price swings and triggering momentum-chasing algos. 3. Options market gamma squeeze. Dealers short upside calls scrambled to hedge as spot pierced $75, accelerating the melt-up. Open interest in $80 Brent calls expiring in June ballooned to 45,000 contracts—four times the 3-month norm. ________________________________________ 2. How Real Is the Supply Risk? While the headlines are chilling, physical flows remain intact for now: • Strait of Hormuz: No tankers have been impeded, insurance premia have widened only 25 ¢ per barrel—well below the $3 spike seen after the 2019 Abqaiq attack in Saudi Arabia. • Iraqi-Turkish Pipeline: Still shuttered for unrelated legal reasons; volumes have been offline since March 2023 and are therefore “priced in.” • Suez Canal / SUMED: Egyptian authorities report normal operations. In short, the rally is risk premia, not actual barrels lost. That distinction matters because premia tend to deflate quickly once tension plateaus, as the market witnessed in October 2023 after Hamas’s initial assault on Israel. ________________________________________ 3. Fundamentals Point to Softer Prices by Autumn Four forces could push Brent back into the $65–68 corridor by Q4 2025 if the geopolitical situation stabilizes: Force Current Status Q3–Q4 Outlook OPEC+ Spare Capacity ~5.5 mbpd, most in Saudi/UAE Ability to add 1–2 mbpd if prices spike U.S. Shale Growth 13.3 mbpd, record high +0.6 mbpd y/y, breakeven $47–55 Refinery Maintenance Peak spring turnarounds remove 1.5 mbpd demand Units restart by July, easing crude tightness Global Demand +1.2 mbpd y/y (IEA) Slows to +0.8 mbpd on OECD weakness Add seasonal gasoline demand ebbing after August, and the supply-demand balance tilts looser just as futures curves roll into Q1 2026 deliveries—a period typically beset by refinery slowdowns and holiday travel lulls. ________________________________________ 4. Scenario Analysis: Three Paths for Brent 1. Escalation (20 % probability) • Direct Israeli strike on Iranian territory → Tehran targets Hormuz traffic • 3 mbpd disrupted for one month • Brent overshoots to $100+, backwardation widens above $10 • Biden releases 90 mb from the SPR; OPEC signals emergency meeting 2. Containment (60 % probability) • Hostilities remain proxy-based in Syria/Lebanon; shipping unscathed • Risk premium bleeds off; Brent drifts to $70–72 by July • By Q4 oversupply emerges; prices test $65 3. Detente (20 % probability) • U.S.-mediated cease-fire; hostages exchanged • Iran de-escalates to focus on reviving JCPOA talks • Risk premium collapses; Brent revisits mid-$60s by August and low-$60s into winter ________________________________________ 5. Why Gold and Silver Are On Fire The precious-metals rally is less about oil and more about real yields and central-bank buying: • Real 10-year U.S. yield sits at 1.05 %, down from 1.55 % in February, boosting gold’s carry cost competitiveness. • PBoC & EM central banks added a net 23 tonnes in April—the 17th straight month of net purchases. • ETF inflows turned positive for the first time in nine months, adding 14 tonnes last week. Silver benefits from the same macro tailwinds plus industrial demand (solar panel capacity is growing 45 % y/y). A tight COMEX inventory cover ratio—registered stocks equal to just 1.4 months of offtake—amplifies price sensitivity. ________________________________________ 6. Cross-Asset Implications 1. Equities: Energy stocks (XLE) outperformed the S&P 500 by 3 % intraday but could retrace if crude fizzles. Miners (GDX, SILJ) may enjoy more durable momentum given new-high psychology. 2. FX: Petro-currencies CAD and NOK rallied 0.4 % vs. USD; safe-haven CHF gained 0.3 %. JPY failed to catch a bid, reflecting carry-trade dominance. 3. Rates: U.S. 2-year yields slipped 6 bp as Fed cut odds edged up on stagflation fears, but the move lacked conviction. ________________________________________ 7. What Could Invalidate the Bearish Q4 Call? • OPEC+ Discipline Frays: If Saudi Arabia tires of single-handedly absorbing cuts and opens the taps, prices could undershoot $60—but Riyadh’s fiscal breakeven (~$82) makes this unlikely. • U.S. Election Politics: A new White House may re-impose harsher sanctions on Iran or ease drilling restrictions, tilting balances either way. • Extreme Weather: An intense Atlantic hurricane season could knock Gulf of Mexico output offline, squeezing physical supply just as refineries demand more feedstock. ________________________________________ 8. Trading and Hedging Playbook Asset Bias Vehicles Key Levels Brent Crude Fade rallies toward $80; target $68 by Oct ICE futures, Jul $70 puts Resistance $78.80 / Support $71.30 WTI Similar to Brent NYMEX CL, calendar-spread (long Dec 24, short Dec 25) Resistance $75.20 Gold Buy dips if real yields fall below 0.9 % Futures, GLD ETF, 25-delta call spreads Support $2,390 Silver Momentum long until $35; tighten stops Futures, SLV ETF, 2-month $34 calls Resistance $36.20 Energy Equities Pair trade: long refiners vs. short E&Ps ETFs: CRAK vs. XOP Watch crack spreads Risk managers should recall that correlation spikes under stress: a portfolio long gold and short crude looks diversified—until a Middle-East cease-fire nukes both legs. ________________________________________ 9. Macro Backdrop: Demand Still Fragile Even before the flare-up, oil demand forecasts were slipping: • OECD: Eurozone PMIs languish below 50; German diesel demand –7 % y/y. • China: Q2 refinery runs flatlining; teapot margins < $2/bbl. • India: Bright spot with gasoline demand +9 %, but monsoon season will clip growth. On the supply side, non-OPEC production is rising 1.8 mbpd this year, led by Brazil’s pre-salt, Guyana’s Stabroek block, and U.S. Permian efficiency gains. Unless Middle-East barrels exit the market, the call on OPEC crude will shrink from 28 mbpd in Q2 to 26.7 mbpd in Q4, forcing the cartel to decide between market share and price. ________________________________________ 10. Historical Perspective: Geopolitical Risk Premiums Fade Fast Event Initial Brent Jump Days to Round-Trip Barrels Lost? 2019 Abqaiq Attack +15 % 38 < 0.2 mbpd for 30 days 2020 U.S.–Iran (Soleimani) +5 % 10 None 2022 Russia-Ukraine +35 % Still elevated > 1 mbpd rerouted Based on precedent, a 5–7 % surge without real supply disruption typically unwinds within six weeks. ________________________________________ 11. Outlook Summary • Base Case: Containment; Brent averages $70–72 through summer, melts to $65–68 Q4. Gold consolidates above $2,350; silver churns $30–34. • Bull Case (Oil): Hormuz threatened; Brent $100+, gas prices soar, Fed forced to juggle inflation vs. growth. • Bear Case (Oil): Cease-fire + soft demand; Brent breaks $60, OPEC+ grapples with fresh round of cuts. • ________________________________________ 12. Conclusion The Israel-Iran flashpoint has injected a fresh geopolitical premium into oil and turbo-charged safe-haven metals, but history suggests emotion-driven rallies fade quickly when physical barrels keep flowing. Unless missiles land near Hormuz or an errant drone strikes a Saudi export terminal, the structural forces of rising non-OPEC supply and cooling demand should reassert themselves, dragging Brent back toward the mid-$60s by year-end. For traders, that means respecting the tape today but planning for mean reversion tomorrow—selling gamma-rich call structures in crude, rolling stop-losses higher on bullion longs, and watching like hawks for any hint that shipping lanes are no longer merely a headline risk but a tangible bottleneck. Until that line is crossed, the smart money will treat each price spike not as the dawn of $100 crude, but as an opportunity to hedge, fade, and position for a calmer, cheaper barrel in the months ahead.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
GOLD/USD – Bullish Reversal Pattern FormingGOLD/USD – Bullish Reversal Pattern Forming 🟢📈 📊 Chart Analysis: The chart shows a strong Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern forming, which is a classic bullish reversal signal: 🔹 Left Shoulder and Right Shoulder – Marked with orange circles, both found support near the 3,263 level (purple line), suggesting strong buying interest at this zone. 🔹 Head – The lowest point in between the shoulders, also bouncing from support. 🔹 Resistance Zone – Marked with red arrows around 3,500–3,520. This zone has rejected price action multiple times in the past. 🔹 Support Zone – Marked below 3,200, where previous consolidation and buying took place. 📈 Projected Move: The neckline breakout suggests a potential move toward the 3,520+ level. A minor pullback is expected before continuation. If price breaks above resistance, we could see a strong bullish rally. 📌 Key Levels: Support: 3,263 🟩 Resistance: 3,500–3,520 🟥 Potential Target After Breakout: 3,550+ 🎯 ✅ Bias: Bullish above 3,263 support ⚠️ Invalidation: A break below the neckline would cancel the bullish setup
TVC:GOLDLong
by MrStellanSight
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