Gold Price Analysis September 6Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices attracted some buyers for the third straight day on Friday and traded near weekly highs heading into the European session. However, the gains lacked bullish sentiment as investors opted to wait for the release of the key US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report before placing any fresh bets. Meanwhile, rising bets for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September weighed on the US Dollar (USD) for the third straight day and provided some support to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, a mixed batch of US employment data released this week suggested the labour market is losing momentum and raised concerns about the health of the economy. This, coupled with persistent geopolitical tensions, dampened investor appetite for riskier assets and turned out to be another factor that acted as a driver of safe-haven Gold prices. However, it would be wise to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the two-day uptrend ahead of key US macro data risks.
Technical Analysis
Gold is looking to make an ATH in today’s US session. The re-approach to the 2523 zone in yesterday’s evening session and the liquid pullback to the 2508 zone and back to the top as the European session began have prompted investors to buy to push prices higher in the US session. The key price zone of 2526 on the breakout in today’s European session is definitely a new all-time high for Gold.
Gold will at least reach 2526 or 2533 before a sharp decline. Now the US session begins and gold pushes down first, the US's upward force will be greater and it is possible to reach the sell zone of 254x.
Resistance: 2526 - 2532 - 2542 - 2555
Support: 2493 - 2485 - 2472 - 2461 - 2454 - 2440
SELL price zone 2530 - 2532 stoploss 2536
BUY price zone 2499 - 2497 stoploss 2492
BUY price zone 2460 - 2462 stoploss 2456
Goldprediction
With the Non-Farm Payrolls coming, can gold reach a new high?Gold is approaching a record high again. Will it break through tonight with the help of non-farm payrolls?
The August US non-farm payrolls report will be released at 20:30 tonight. This report will directly determine whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in the September interest rate decision, and will also directly reveal whether the US economy has entered a recession as the market worries.
Last month, US employment data was weak, especially the unemployment rate hit a new high since October 2021, which aroused market concerns about the US economy. This concern spread to the entire financial market, forming a chain reaction and triggering the Black Monday plunge.
Fed Chairman Powell said at the August Global Central Bank Annual Meeting that he did not expect the August employment report to continue to be weak, and the September interest rate cut would not change due to the rebound in the employment market. The overly weak employment performance is not what the Fed wants to see.
In addition, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States on August 21 was revised down by 810,000, which means that the employment report in the past 12 months has been beautified, and the average number of jobs has decreased by 68,000 per month. It shows that the US economic performance is not as optimistic as the market expected.
Due to the downward revision of past data, non-agricultural data will not have too much water, unlike the huge monthly difference in employment data in the previous few months, which made the investment bank's forecast of employment become a decoration. This time, the market expected 160,000 employment and 4.2% unemployment rate. Last month, 114,000 employment and 4.3% unemployment rate.
Tonight's non-agricultural data mainly has two aspects:
1: The data performed better than market expectations, and the number of employed people rebounded further. It must be a low probability event if it is lower than 100,000. If it is between 110,000 and 160,000, it will cause the gold price to rise first and then fall. It is not as good as expected, but it is stronger than last month.
2: The employment data continued to be weak, even lower than 114,000 last month, and the unemployment rate rose by more than 4.3%, which is bullish for gold. From another perspective, from the perspective of the US economic recession, gold may not rise. Arbitrage transactions will be sold in large quantities, dragging down panic selling of other assets, and gold is no exception.
That is to say, whether the employment data performs well or poorly tonight, it should be difficult for gold to rise. Good employment performance is bearish for gold, and poor employment performance indicates a hard landing of the US economy. Wasn’t last month’s non-farm data bullish, but gold fell sharply?
Therefore, today, gold should pay attention to the risk of falling back after rising. Yesterday, gold broke through 2506 and turned bullish. I also reminded that 2506 is the dividing point between long and short positions this week. If it breaks through, you can no longer have illusions. Then 2518 was reversed to 2505, and a high-altitude profit was made. Pay attention to the dividing point between long and short positions at 2530 today. After a surge upward, be careful of the short-selling counterattack with the help of non-farm data tonight! Focus on 2505 below, and the breakout will continue, but pay attention to risk control.
XAUUSD: The most likely time to set a new high is comingIn yesterday's article, we pointed out the importance of the support area of 2470-2480, and the trend of this decline is almost the same as that in August, so we bought bullish in this range, and the result was very good.
Judging from the strength of the last rebound, the highest gold price tried to break through 2532. Similarly, I am optimistic that gold will test new highs again this time. In addition, there are many important economic data released today, and there will be a monthly NFP tomorrow. Once the data is good for gold, this time is most likely to refresh the historical high.
From the 1H chart, we can see that yesterday's strong rebound has broken the downward trend, and today's Asian and European sessions have broken through the key resistance of 2500-2505 again. Now this range has turned from resistance to support.
Trading strategy:
Although we are very optimistic about gold today, we still cannot take the risk of chasing the rise, because once the gold price falls back to the support, there is a room for a decline of 10-15$.
Therefore, today we'd better wait for the gold price to pull back to the 2500-2505 support area before buying. The target can be seen at 2520-2530, and after a new high, it can be seen at 2550.
9.6 Gold Short-Term Trading StrategySpot gold fluctuated in a narrow range in Asian trading on Friday (September 6), currently trading around 2520, holding on to most of its overnight gains. Gold prices rose to a near one-week high on Thursday as the dollar weakened and yields fell. Earlier signs of a loss of momentum in the labor market led investors to expect the Federal Reserve to make a super-large interest rate cut this month. According to a Reuters survey, job growth is expected to pick up in August, with non-farm payrolls expected to increase by 160,000 jobs that month, exceeding the 114,000 increase in July. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.2% in August.
Gold broke the deadlock of the first three days of this week during the day. As the US dollar index fell, gold chose to break upward. After a narrow range of fluctuations around 2495 in the early trading, it began to attack around the European trading session, breaking through the key suppression level of 2500, and breaking through the 2507 high that was broken in the previous few days. The US market accelerated to 2523 with the stimulation of ADP data, and finally fell back in the short term, with the daily line closing with a large positive column.
So far this week, gold has tested the bottom support of 2470 twice. It can be seen that although it reached around 2470 twice, the real K-line basically closed above 2480, which is enough to prove that the bullish buying on dips in gold is still very strong. It is expected that before the arrival of non-agricultural and interest rate cuts, gold will continue to fluctuate at a high level. In terms of intraday operations, it is still sufficient to maintain range operations.
Intraday short-term operation strategy:
Short gold rebounds at 2525, defend 2532, target 2510-2500
Gold glimmers with potential as bullish sentiment prevailsToday's outlook for gold (XAU/USD) in the forex market remains bullish, driven by a combination of factors. The price is currently trading near significant resistance levels around $2,531, supported by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would lower bond yields and make gold more attractive. Traders are particularly focused on upcoming U.S. employment data, which could further influence gold prices. A weaker-than-expected jobs report would likely push prices higher, potentially toward $2,600 in the short term. However, if the data shows strong job growth, gold may face downward pressure, with potential corrections towards $2,483-2,477
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another PIPTASTIC day on the charts today with our analysis playing out in true level to level fashion.
Yesterday we stated that we were now looking for a 2498 weighted resistance re-test and a cross and lock above this level will re-open the range above.
- This played out perfectly, as we got the 2498 target hit followed with the cross and lock confirmation for 2509, which was also hit perfectly!!
We now also have 2509 cross and lock opening 2524, which gave a nice capture and fell just just short of a few pips and will now be keeping this mind.
Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2509 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2509 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2524
2535
BEARISH TARGETS
2498 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2498 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
RETRACEMENT RANGE
2484 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2484 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2472 (DONE) - 2461
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
BITCOIN PARABOLIC PHASE INCOMING ‼️ BITCOIN PARABOLIC PHASE INCOMING ‼️
Confirmed $100k CRYPTOCAP:BTC by 2025.
If TVC:GOLD walks away from this new ATH...
It would confirm there is enough correlation to look further into a 49 month clock in the #GOLD & #Bitcoin Bull-Cycle.
Theory is... #GOLD will start it's parabolic phase of its bull cycle, lasting 6 months and reaching a new ATH. There will be a 2 month "break" between both assets, sideways or slightly down. After the 2 month break, #Bitcoin will start it's parabolic phase of its bull cycle, also lasting 6 months. The two assets will go sideways and do their thing for 35 months before the 14 month parabolic dance starts all over.
Cycle 1⃣:
02/01/2020 | TVC:GOLD | $1,587
08/01/2020 | TVC:GOLD | $2,049
+29% Change
10/01/2020 | CRYPTOCAP:BTC | $10,555
04/01/2021 | CRYPTOCAP:BTC | $58,732
+456% Change
Cycle 2⃣:
03/01/24 | TVC:GOLD | $2,004
09/01/24 | TVC:GOLD | $2,555
+27% Change
11/01/24 | CRYPTOCAP:BTC | TBD
05/01/25 | CRYPTOCAP:BTC | TBD
TBD% Change
The TVC:GOLD trend lines match during the 6 month parabolic phases.
46 degree trend on the daily, both cycles.
-31 degree trend on the daily, 8 months after ATH.
...If History repeats itself...
CRYPTOCAP:BTC should stay sideways or down for the next 55 days. Most likely a fake-out pump coming from the pending Fed Rate cut this month. We should stay below FWB:65K based on the price action around the Jackson Hole speech.
We would only need an 88% increase this phase for CRYPTOCAP:BTC to reach $100k. This is a small ask, considering the previous post-halving cycles. If it follows the same trend line up this cycle we could see $305k next April. As nice as that sounds, it is not very likely we will see a 456% gain this cycle.
Gold Rise on Weak U.S. Jobs Data, Bearish Below Key Resistance Gold Futures Rise on Weak U.S. Jobs Data, Boosting Rate-Cut Optimism
Gold Technical Analysis for today
Current Outlook: Gold prices have once again approached resistance, driven by weak U.S. jobs data. However, today's release of ADP and ISM reports could negatively impact gold, especially if the ADP data comes in stronger than expected.
As long as the price remains below 2,516, it is likely to support a bearish move towards 2,500. A break below this level would extend the bearish trend towards 2,475. On the other hand, a 1-hour candle close above 2,516 would shift momentum upward, targeting 2,526. A break above 2,526 would activate a bullish trend.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 2516
Resistance Levels: 2526, 2532, 2543
Support Levels: 2502, 2484, 2475
Expected Trading Range: 2527 - 2484
Trend: Bearish while below 2516 and 2526.
previous idea:
XAUUSD: The recent low has been confirmed, buy boldlyYesterday, the price of gold bottomed out and rebounded after falling to 2473. Now the price of gold has come here again. I think the low point of this decline is likely to be here.
From the 4H chart, we can see that the range of 2470-2480 is the key resistance level that has not been broken in the previous many attacks. After breaking, it has turned into support.
At the same time, during the correction last month, it also played a key supporting role, and its support strength has been verified yesterday and just now.
In addition, the important data ADP and NFP data this week will not be released until the next two days, so it is unlikely to fall below this key support level before the data.
Trading strategy:
Since we have determined the short-term low, the choice for us is very clear. Buy in the range of 2470-2480. The first target is 2500-2505, and the second is 2520-2530.
I have bought at 2480 and added positions at 2475. Now I can wait for the rise with peace of mind.
9.5 Gold short-term operation strategyGold lacks direction in high-range wash
Yesterday's gold trend once again proved that it is in a high-range oscillation pattern.
As we imagined, gold first fell to test around 2472 and then received buying support, starting a rebound rhythm.
The overnight US July job vacancy report dropped sharply, stimulating gold to continue to rise to test around 2500, and it is still running at a high level.
Next, the market will focus on non-agricultural employment data, and the market hopes to get information from the Federal Reserve on the extent of the interest rate cut.
At present, the high-range adjustment is obvious, with support around 2475 and resistance around 2527. The pressure point to watch during the day is the 2500 mark. If we stand above this level, we will continue to look at the opportunity of 2510-20. Otherwise, there is a possibility of a pullback under pressure. There is really no good idea. It is recommended to wait and see.
From the analysis chart, 2507 is a big pressure. Now it is a bottoming out. Bulls pay attention to the small support of 2488. Today we will consider long opportunities at this position. If the bulls reach 2507, consider shorting. Note that it is only considered in the Asian session. If the European and American sessions go anywhere, the position may be broken. Today's idea is that both long and short positions can be taken. It is very important to find the rhythm and position.
Support is around 2471-2473, small support is 2488, pressure is 2500 and 2507, and the watershed of strength and weakness in the market is 2493
9.5 Gold short-term operation strategy1: US debt. Since 2022, out of concern about US debt, central banks around the world have chosen to increase their gold holdings to balance the structure of foreign exchange reserves. In the past two years, the amount of gold purchased has doubled, and the scale is still expanding.
2: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates. After the interest rate cut, more US dollar liquidity will be provided to the market, and more funds will return to the gold market, which has never happened in the rise of gold in the past two years.
3: Risk hedging. As the best risk hedging tool, gold will increase significantly in asset allocation during the economic downturn. China is the largest consumer of gold. For every 10% drop in gold prices, China's gold demand will increase by 16%. Once gold falls sharply in September, the central bank may return to the market with a large number of orders.
Regarding the theory of US economic recession, there have been whistleblowers one after another since August. The plunge in global stock markets on August 2 was Sam's Law, and the plunge in the Nikkei 225 index on Tuesday this week, and the decline in gold/crude oil all triggered the recession indicator of US economist Rosenberg.
At this stage, the recession of the US economy is still in the imagination stage. The US August employment report will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on September 6. The market is overreacting to the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July. Once the unemployment rate rises in August, it may trigger the reduction of arbitrage trading funds and cause market stampede.
Before that, the US will release the August ADP employment data today. The previous value was 125,000, and the market estimated 145,000. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 31 will be announced at 20:30. The previous value was 231,000, which was not much different from the estimated 230,000.
This is just the appetizer. The hard dish is the US non-farm employment data on Friday. Last month, the global market avalanche was triggered by the non-farm data. The sharp decline in non-farm data last month should be bullish for gold, but the market trend suddenly turned from the expected Fed rate cut to the US economic recession, causing indiscriminate panic selling. This time everyone's eyes are on the non-farm data.
Today, we will pay more attention to the changes in the technical structure. The data only serves as a guide. Emotions will be reflected in the price in advance. On Wednesday, the gold price accelerated its decline in the European session, falling from a low of $2495 to $2471, a drop of nearly $25, but the continuity was extremely poor. The US session recovered and returned to the $2500 line.
In recent times, the gold price has been on a roller coaster ride, and basically there is little continuity. After a sharp drop, there is a sharp rise, and after a sharp rise, there is a sharp drop. This morning, the price was at $2498. After the rebound in the US session last night, it closed above the support point of 2491. The upper pressure is still collectively at $2507. The break of this position will temporarily end this round of small-scale adjustment.
From the 1-hour structure, the price rebounded after two dips to the 2470 USD line, forming a staged double bottom. There are two positions above that are of particular interest. One is the 2500 USD line with the pressure of 2507 USD as the boundary, that is, to hold 2506-07 and continue the weak shock. The support below is 2491. Only when it is lost here can it be opened for the second time.
In addition, if the rebound is strong and breaks through 2507 USD, the rebound will further continue to the range of 2512-14. The rebound here should pay attention to the decline after the rapid pullback. Don't chase the market in the past few days. If you see a rise, you will have more callbacks. If you see a fall, you will often be shorted. If you see a rise, you will look for pressure positions to go short. If you see a fall, you will look for support positions to go long. Don't treat the box shock as a unilateral one.
Therefore, my idea for gold today is to continue to look for a decline with 2507 Qingyuan as the pressure. First, pay attention to 2492 below, followed by 2485 USD and 2485 USD. The formation of this unilateral market will be postponed to the non-agricultural data tomorrow night or the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 17. Before that, it will mainly be a roller coaster wash.
Gold Analysis September 5☘️Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices edged up in Asian trade on Thursday. A US jobs report showed on Wednesday that employment fell to a three-and-a-half-year low in July, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further in September, which in turn acted as a boost for the non-yielding yellow metal. Moreover, concerns about the health of the US economy dampened investor appetite for riskier assets, further supporting the safe-haven precious metal.
However, gold prices lacked strong buying interest as traders appeared reluctant to place strong bullish bets, preferring to wait for key details on the US monthly employment report - commonly known as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report - due on Friday. Meanwhile, the US economic agenda on Thursday - including the ADP report on private sector employment, the weekly jobless claims and the ISM services PMI - will be looked at for short-term opportunities. However, expectations of the imminent start of the Fed's policy easing cycle could continue to support Gold.
☘️Technical Analysis
Gold is moving back in the sideways range of 2490-2505. After an old liquidity sweep to 2472. The Asian session's upside momentum is not strong enough to break the technical level of 2508. When the European session pushes up to 2508 without breaking through, we can set up a SELL signal at this area. The sell trend may extend further than there is still a way to move up to ATH. Today, when the US session enters, pay attention to the resistance zone of 2512-2514 for a SELL strategy. And the push to the low zone this week and next week could create momentum for the FOMC to push gold to a new ATH.
Resistance: 2505 - 2509 - 2515 - 2524 - 2535
Support: 2491 - 2485 - 2472 - 2461 - 2454 - 2440
SELL price zone 2513 - 2515 stoploss 2518
BUY price zone 2460 - 2462 stoploss 2456
BUY price zone 2480 - 2478 stoploss 2475Gold Analysis September 5
9.5 Gold short-term operation strategy9.4 Two consecutive profitable orders
Gold 1-hour oscillating downward trend, gold rebound high points successively lower, gold 1-hour moving average dead cross short diverge downward, moving average resistance now moves down to around 2495. Gold rebounded around 2493 in the afternoon, you can continue to short
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another great day on the charts today with our analysis playing out, as planned.
Yesterday after completing the retracement range target at 2484 we stated a break below this level would open the swing range. This was open and hit perfectly today completing the first swing target at 2472. The swing range did exactly what it says on the tin by providing the extended bounce swing from 2472 into 2484 completing the swing.
We will now look for a 2498 weighted resistance re-test and a cross and lock above this level will re-open the range above. Failure to test and lock above this level will follow with another 2484 weighted support test and a further cross and lock below 2484 will this time open the full swing range for the extended swing bounce.
Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2509
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2509 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2524
2535
BEARISH TARGETS
2498 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2498 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
RETRACEMENT RANGE
2484 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2484 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2472 (DONE) - 2461
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
78 Close the position with a profit of 13 points. Look for the s1: Fundamentals, the market is waiting for data, and the trend of waiting for data is very obvious. The Asian market is basically dominated by fluctuations; waiting for European market data, because the data will wash the market, and pierce, the trend of hitting stop loss makes the account and trading very difficult;
We can only wait for the data for 1-2 hours to see whether the market is stable,
2: Technical aspects:
A: In the small cycle, 1 hour, 30 minutes, it tends to the range of 2480-2500. In the range, you can take 2500-2495 short, and the following 2480-2485 range is long, and do small ranges;
B: 4 hours, the pattern oscillates downward, and the indicator oscillates upward. This is a contradiction. To solve this contradictory signal, there is only a wash up and down, and finally a certain degree of direction; 2470 is currently a double support, buying support, and will not break for the time being; unless capital selling knocks out the long buying at 2470;
C: In the daily K, the indicator crosses downward, which is a bearish signal, so short selling can be adopted, but 2470 has not been broken, and it needs external stimulation to break 2470; the high point pressure in the short term is around 2530, which is also the watershed position of the trend;
To sum up: short-term intraday short-term small range 2500-2495 short, 2480-2485 range long; US market 8:30 data, it is recommended to avoid; avoid risks, let the trend go by itself, there will be data on Thursday and Friday; after this week, the trend will be clear; in the vague trend, it is not recommended to force and force long and short exchanges
Gold price analysis September 4☘️Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices bounced from multi-day lows but remained below the $2,500 mark amid renewed buying in the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. However, ongoing geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) impending rate cut could support the yellow metal in the near term. Later on Wednesday, JOLTS Job Openings and the Fed Beige Book will be released. Investors will be closely watching Friday’s highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for August, which could determine the size and pace of a potential rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. If the report shows a weaker-than-expected reading, it could fuel speculation of a US recession and a faster rate cut by the Fed. This in turn could boost the precious metal further as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Gold.
☘️Technical Analysis
At the end of the trading session, gold was booked by investors as it was pushed up from the beginning of the session, causing gold to fall from 2497 to 2487. The 2485 price zone became an important zone when the European session jumped in. The price is approaching this zone for those who can execute the BUY scalp signal. This week's trend will continue to decrease in price until the Nonfarm data is released to shape the current gold trend. A deep pullback to the lows is seen as an opportunity to buy long term when interest rates fall. Today, pay attention to the 2461 and 2472 zones for a BUY strategy.
Resistance: 2505 - 2509 - 2515 - 2524 - 2535
Support: 2491 - 2485 - 2472 - 2461 - 2454 - 2440
SELL price zone 2513 - 2515 stoploss 2518
SELL price zone 2505 - 2507 stoploss 2511
BUY price zone 2474 - 2472 stoploss 2469
BUY price zone 2460 - 2462 stoploss 2456
9.4 Gold short-term operation strategyGold 2480 broke as expected.
The US dollar rose 0.26% during the week, hitting a two-week high of 101.9. Affected by the surge in the US dollar index, the price of gold hit a new low of more than a week to around 2473 yesterday. However, the poor performance of the US ISM manufacturing PMI data dragged down the US bond yields, providing support for the gold price. It rebounded slightly in the late trading, and the daily line closed with a small negative column with a long upper and lower lead.
The market is waiting for the US non-farm employment data, which may determine the scale of the possible interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting.
After the US holiday on Monday, gold finally broke out on Tuesday, breaking through 2480 all the way during the session and reaching the 2473 line. As we said, the market reached 2480. The 2502 short order given yesterday was basically the highest short order of the day, and once won 22 points of profit.
The recent market is actually a market for making money. As long as gold rebounds, you can short it. The current price is more stimulated by the news, and it will not be supported for long. At present, 2480 has been broken. The area of 2473-74 is a strong support. If it breaks down, it will go to the 2460 line. Based on the current trend, there is still a high probability. The 4-hour trend shows that the downward channel has been opened. If it rebounds around 2500 today, you can participate in short orders.
Detailed intraday operation strategy:
Short at 2505, defend at 2513, target 2490-2480
Buy at 2480, defend at 2473, target 2500-2505
9.4 Analysis of Short-term Gold OperationsThe U.S. market broke the bottom and reversed, with three negative daily lines, and the price completely broke the short-term 5-day and 10-day moving averages.
2490 did not hold, but this decline was not restless either.
1. They all fell first in the Asian market.
2. The European market is still rebounding and rising, forming an illusion of support.
3. The U.S. market fell 6-8 points before the intraday low, and the drop at this point basically determined the U.S. market to retreat.
4. The U.S. market continued to counterattack the 2502 line, which was considered a shock. It broke the intraday decline and rebounded 618, and also broke the top-bottom conversion level.
5. After the US market broke through the bottom, the difference was slightly 2470-1, the previous low.
6. It pulled back upward in the early morning, touching the intraday drop of 618 at the 2494 line.
From this we can see several points:
(1), it fell in a cycle in the morning.
(2) Oscillating retracement, the strength of the rebound is also OK. Although the decline is large, it can be closed up, and it is not an extremely weak decline.
(3) The daily rhythm is three Yin, reaching the edge of the maximum correction. Today's market should turn positive. This pattern, if there is a swallowing decline, the overall weakness will be weak, but this constitutes that it should still be a bull wash.
Therefore, in terms of operation:
You can get rid of the cycle and bet on the retracement first. The resistance level is 2492, which is the 618 position of yesterday's decline and rebound. If it breaks 2502, it will lose money and look at the 2483-4 line.
Pay attention to two points: if it falls in the morning, you should sell in the afternoon.
In addition, if the morning does not fall to the target level, it will break the high in the afternoon and the short will be evacuated.
There will be a cycle in the afternoon, and the European session will rise.
If the cycle in the afternoon is stuck, if it touches the 2483-4 line, it will be long, and the loss will be 73. Look for the intraday European session to pull up. The extreme retracement long position is 2481.5, which is the 618 position of the rebound and rise. But if the market resists the decline in the morning, it will be more aggressive in the afternoon, and the market will be above 2500.
Gold Demand Surges in Asia as Local Currencies Weaken the gold market is expected to maintain a soft upward trend. This projection is supported by several factors, including technical indicators showing positive momentum that isn't yet in the overbought zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance is upward.
In the short term, the price of gold is likely to stay around the $2,500 level, with possible resistance at $2,480 and support near $2,430. If there is a significant pullback, it could be viewed as a buying opportunity, especially if prices dip towards these support levels. However, a break below $2,400 could indicate a deeper correction
Overall, the gold market is showing a bullish bias, with the possibility of prices continuing to rise throughout the month, influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties
XAUUSD DumpLooking above us is a well refined zone from which we expect Gold to sell from.
It won't stop this sells until we've got to a 4hr zone that should be updated here also.
Simply wait for a confirmation at this sell zone, then get in as a swing or with a swing perspective at heart.
Whatever Gold does between Wednesday and Thursday will determine what price delivery will be at NFP.
GOLD - where is today support? what's next??#GOLD.. due to overall uncertainty gold behave is indicate a buying scnerios but on chart game is different.
overall for today we discussed in our video analysis that market have 2516 with minor support 2511 around and as you can see marekt hold our 2nd minor support sofar.
now keep close that region that is your ultimate area n region from 2511 to 2516 that 5 points region can change the totally change.
only short below your region otherwise not at all AND UPSIDE BREAKGE CAN BE A GOOD BUY SIGN..
otherwise stay aside.
good luck
trade wisely
GOLD SELL Idea | $2480-2435 expected- Gold prices remained close to their recent all-time highs last week, driven by strong market sentiment and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. This optimism follows comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who suggested a potential policy shift, fueling speculation that the Fed may reduce rates by 25 basis points, with some possibility of a 50-basis-point cut. This expectation has been a key factor in sustaining gold’s rally.
- On Friday, gold prices experienced a slight decline due to profit-taking after the release of U.S. inflation data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which rose by 0.2% in July, met expectations and confirmed that inflation is no longer the Fed's main concern. Instead, the Fed is focusing on unemployment and economic growth, with revised Q2 GDP growth of 3% and declining jobless claims reducing fears of a recession.
- Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, have also increased demand for gold as a safe haven. Central banks have continued to purchase gold, further supporting prices, with some analysts predicting that gold could approach $3,000 by the end of the year.
- Looking ahead, the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report will be crucial in determining the Fed's next move. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could increase the likelihood of a larger rate cut, potentially driving gold prices higher. However, traders should be cautious of potential risks, such as weak physical demand in major Asian markets like China and the fact that many investors are already heavily positioned in gold, which could limit further gains.