XAUUSD – Key Inflection Zone Before Core PCE Price Index m/mGold opened today with a bearish gap, once again struggling to stay above the 3327–3305 support zone, the same range where it hovered yesterday. While the price did form a higher low and higher high structure on the lower timeframes, this move still lacks the strength to signal a proper reversal—rather, it looks more like a minor consolidation ahead of tonight’s US GDP and Unemployment Claims release.
At this point, gold is trapped between two key forces:
A resilient resistance zone formed by the downtrendline, unfilled gap from earlier this week, and confluence of MA50 & MA200
A rising minor support trendline, creating a tightening range and indicating that the next breakout may provide a clearer direction.
⚠️ Technical Outlook
As long as gold remains below 3366–3367, the prevailing downtrend structure remains valid. Any rally into that zone should be viewed cautiously, especially if accompanied by weak volume or rejection candles. However, if gold manages to break and close H4 above 3367, it could trigger a short-term correction toward 3396 or even higher, aiming to fill the previous gap.
But so far, the momentum remains bearish, and lower highs continue to dominate the mid-term structure.
🔽 Trade Idea (Cautious Swing Trade)
Due to the wide stop-loss required, we recommend using reduced position size to maintain proper risk management.
🔵 Sell Area: 3358 – 3367
❌ Stop Loss: 3396 (above the trendline and prior key high)
🎯 Take Profit 1: 3331
🎯 Take Profit 2: 3306
🎯 Take Profit 3: 3289
🧠 Risk Level: Moderate to High (Lot size should be adjusted)
R3: 3379
R2: 3366
R1: 3350
Pivot: 3327
S1: 3305
S2: 3286
S3: 3256
