Why did the price of gold fall after Iran was attacked?
Today is October 28, 2024, Monday. Let me first talk about the facts of the market. The two major players in the Middle East on Saturday and Sunday in the international market, Israel, attacked Iran's military facilities. The weekend was also full of risk aversion. My members were very worried about whether the opening on Monday would reach a new high, with the gold price at 2,700 points. Many shorts were on pins and needles. They would ask me what I think. My answer is very simple. You should have fun on the weekend and don't worry about Monday. It will be a waste of the weekend if you worry in advance.
When the market opened on Monday, there was a gap, which has not been filled yet. So in fact, there is no value in worrying in advance, and it is all negative emotional value. This means that there is no need to worry about tomorrow's things, especially when trading.
Let's get back to the point. Israel's retaliation against Iran at the weekend is more like giving the public another explanation. It should be fought and warned. The United States also spoke out, saying that Iran should not escalate the situation further. Iranian officials said they would certainly respond, but since the attack did not threaten oil and nuclear facilities, sources said Iran informed Israel through a third party that it would not respond. And we retail investors are like flies swept by the market, flying around.
This magical third party, this farce, in my opinion, is more like January 3, 2020, after the Soleimani incident, Iran will launch a jihad, at least to attack the US military bases in the Middle East, and the gold price will rise sharply in the future. It was indeed bombed, but in the end Trump said that before the attack began, Iranian senior officials had notified the US military that the personnel had already evacuated. Therefore, the attack did not cause any casualties. It's like you punched cotton.
Obviously, the mysterious third party has become the stepping stone for the two major protagonists in the Middle East. For this farce, the dominant issue is still the economic level. During the pandemic, the world has an overcapacity that cannot be consumed, and the recovery cycle is too slow. Economic contradictions cannot be resolved, so we have to seek stronger, faster and more direct ways to consume production capacity. So after the intensification of contradictions, instability in some local areas has emerged. After all, in troubled times, everyone wants to have a piece of the pie. But who will win? In the end, it was found that the price was still the same, but it was us retail investors who paid the bill.
In terms of strength, the current market has not set new highs for several trading days. Compared with the previous market that set new highs every day, this phenomenon can be regarded as a manifestation of the rising momentum is not so crazy. Coupled with the adjustment signals of large and small cycles, this shock is about to begin. As for the next important events, this week the market will have job vacancy data, small non-agricultural data on Wednesday, inflation PCE price index annual rate on Thursday, and large non-agricultural data on Friday.
There are still many highlights this week. If possible, I suggest you control your position and make the stop loss as large as possible. After all, every important event and data is an opportunity for market reversal. At the same time, coupled with the bets of market investors, the probability of sweeping the market is very serious. So either you participate with a light enough position and set a large enough stop loss. Or participate in the transaction at the key price. Specifically, you can take a look at my thoughts today:
International gold this morning was affected by the weekend news and opened lower and moved lower. From a technical point of view, there was a gap in the market. So today's trading should be based on the gap theory. The most important thing about the gap theory is to pay attention to the gap filling at the one-hour level. As shown in the figure, the black line represents the market filling the gap with shadows. At this time, our trading opportunity is 2747 bearish. As long as the shadow line covers the gap, it will be downward in conjunction with the jumping direction.
It means that the market will start a downward trend. 2747 is an important opportunity to participate. The second is based on actual performance. As shown in the solid line trend in the figure, the price fills the gap with entities at the one-hour level, which means that the gap theory is bullish for the future market, and the bullish trading opportunity will be bullish at 2737 as support. So these two prices are the key trading opportunities to focus on today.
Note that the market will experience the performance of the US non-agricultural employment data this week, and the interest rate decision and the US election next week. The risk will increase relatively, and the market fluctuations will also be greater. Therefore, when making intraday trading plans, you need to expand the price range as much as possible, control risks, and control your positions to participate in transactions.
