Analysis of gold price trend next week!Market news:
Mainly due to the strengthening of the US dollar and investors' continued profit-taking, the US Treasury yields are rising, which put pressure on the international gold price and suffered a fierce sell-off. The London gold price once fell to around the $3,000/ounce mark during the session, and then recovered some of its losses. The geopolitical and economic uncertainties are lingering, and coupled with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the international gold price has risen for the third consecutive week. In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which has pushed the London gold price to continue to refresh the historical high this week, may continue to help the gold price rise. Traditionally, gold is regarded as a safe investment in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and usually performs strongly in a low-interest environment. This year, gold has set 16 new historical highs! Overall, the gold price has been mainly driven by geopolitical tensions in the near future. If the situation in the Middle East escalates over the weekend, and all parties are responding to Trump's tariffs in early April, and there is a possibility of renegotiation of the mining agreement in Ukraine, market uncertainty will increase, and the gold price is expected to aim at around 3,100, refreshing the historical high again.
Technical Review:
Gold fell below the support of 3025, the low point on Friday, and came to 2999. In the past few days, I have been emphasizing that gold will have a big retracement. I also arranged short orders in advance and easily took dozens of points of profit. The current decline is far from enough. Gold will continue to fall and return to normal! The 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to turn downward, and gold may open up room for decline. The 1-hour gold has now formed a head and shoulders top structure. Gold rebounds or continues to be short. The market is weak. The gold price tested the 3000 mark for the first time in the evening and has not yet broken it, but the market direction has turned short. If it does not break the first time, I believe there will be a second test in the future. Then the short-biased situation has been finalized. Long positions must be put aside first, because it is now a short market!
Next week's analysis:
Gold fell on Friday, falling below 3000 at the lowest, but then it began to rebound strongly. The gold market has begun to fluctuate, so what should gold do next week? Will gold continue to rush up or start to change at a high level? In fact, overall, if we say that gold has peaked now, it is too early, because there are still many uncertain factors to stimulate the increase of risk aversion, so it is possible to support gold to rise again. However, the impact of the news is only one aspect of our reference. After all, we cannot know a lot of information in time. We can only pay attention to the existence of this risk factor, so there is no need to be too speculative. We still start from the technical level. The 1-hour moving average of gold begins to turn downward. As long as gold does not rise strongly next week, the 1-hour moving average of gold may continue to move downward. Finally, if a downward dead cross short arrangement is formed, the downward space of gold can be truly opened. The resistance of the gold moving average has now moved down to around 3036. The high point on Friday was at the high point of the second rebound at 3037. So gold still has certain resistance in this range. Gold can be sold under the pressure of this range resistance next week, and it can be sold first when it rebounds around 3035.
Operation ideas:
Buy short-term gold at 3000-3003, stop loss at 2992, target at 3020-3030;
Sell short-term gold at 3035-3038, stop loss at 3047, target at 2990-3000;
Key points:
First support level: 3000, second support level: 2990, third support level: 2981
First resistance level: 3035, second resistance level: 3047, third resistance level: 3055
