GOLD-Has a head and shoulders top formed?
Yesterday, the United States released some inflation data indicators. After experiencing the worst year for real estate sales in the past three decades, house price growth accelerated in January, with house prices in 20 major cities rising by 6.59% year-on-year, higher than the 6.2% increase in December last year. increase. Other economic data showed that U.S. durable goods orders increased by 1.4% month-on-month in February, and core capital goods orders increased for the first time in three months. However, the month-on-month value of durable goods orders was further revised down to -6.9%. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in March also showed lower than expected and previous values, all of which indicate that the U.S. economy has obvious signs of contraction.
Public data reports that due to the impact of interest rate increases, the Federal Reserve's total interest expenses will be US$281.1 billion in 2023, 2.75 times the expenditure in 2022, of which interest expenses related to reserve balances will be US$176.8 billion, nearly tripling compared with 2022. The Fed's losses are floating losses and will not affect the Fed's operations, but will aggravate the already huge U.S. government fiscal deficit. (This is also an important reason why the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. Excessively high interest rates mean increasing operating costs for oneself)
U.S. regulators have warned that if U.S. debt continues to soar, it could trigger a crisis. The ratio of U.S. debt to the country's GDP will exceed the highest level during World War II of 116% in 2029, and will rise to 166% of GDP by 2054 (meaning that a debt crisis may occur at any time, and once it occurs, it will trigger turmoil in the global financial market. In view of this, it will also force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates as soon as possible.)
Yesterday, gold reached as high as 2200, but did not break through, and then fell sharply.
From a technical point of view, firstly, because the timing is wrong, the Asian market does not move, the European market starts to rise crazily, and the US market is in place before it even opens, which is equivalent to compressing the room for rising prices in the future.
Second, the growth rate was too fast and directly touched the overbought zone. Therefore, although the data was bullish after the US market started, it could not withstand the flight of profit-making funds.
The upward trend is still maintained above 2145, but as can be seen from the chart, the H4 cycle has formed a head and shoulders top pattern. The left shoulder is at the previous high of 2194, the top is at 2222, and the right shoulder is at Tuesday's high of 2199.
As long as this pattern remains unchanged, there will be room for a sharp decline in the market outlook. For the current market, it is still maintaining an upward trend. Therefore, in the short term, it will still be a high fluctuation under the upward trend, and it will only be possible after it falls below 2145 in the future. There is room for decline
Today we can sell based on yesterday's high point. The 50% and 61.8% golden section positions are 2185 and 2189. The important resistance point is 2197. Control your position reasonably so that you can finally make a profit.
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