What GOLD did today - EXPLAINEDGood Morning folks - How is everyone this morning, As per yesterday, I closed my sell around the green circle because if you remember what I said. I mentioned that gold would be temporarily bearish so sells should hold for that long (we know it won't be forever)
It seems that I was right to close because price didn't go that much lower after me closing, only really adding 1R to the trade but had I held it it would have definitely come back up to take back profits from me.
I have a new analysis this morning because obviously a lot happened and there is new data that we can observe. So let's get into it
Firstly just after the green circle you will notice a blue circle I believe that if price has to actually go up (back bullish) it needs to at least clear this area because this would be the lowest point in recent times - which suggests that there would be a great deal of buyers at this level. If there are a lot of buyers at this level we know there are a lot of stops below this level and thus a lot of liquidity trapped below there, if the dealer wants that liquidity he needs to drive price back to that low to stop hunt that level in a way like the (orange line) when and if he gets there is yet to be seen.
After the big blue circle we have the 2 yellow lines creating a bullish channel - which again suggests that even more buyers are buying because at the areas below the taps I have indicated, we know that there would be a lot of stop losses below these areas and thus even more liquidity.
The question we have to ask ourselves is - does the dealer wish to drive price back bullish while keeping these buyers in their positions and allowing them to win?
If I were the dealer - absolutely not, if I were the dealer and I needed liquidity (energy) to drive price bullish and I knew it had liquidity lower, in a heart beat I'd find a way to push price lower to take out those stops
As of right now I can't do anything as the market currently is neither bullish or bearish momentum based so I have no choice but to wait and watch but rest assured I'd be watching lol
I'd be lying to you if I could tell you what I think is going to happen next - I don't, but sometimes that is set up in such a way to test traders ability to sit and watch.
Market isn't doing much - leave it alone, wait for your set up.
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See you guys in a few hours for an update :)
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Just got back from the gym - Checking it now ,seeing as we have news in 15 minutes or so
The fact that gold is pushing so aggressively prior to said event - further strengthens the case for sells in my opinion
Why would it go through all this stress to buy before the news and continue to buy? when we know we need to destroy buyers at the low
This bull push could be to continue to induce buyers at this point only to crash gold further down to take out liquidity of all buyers who bought on the trend and at the low
I think the green line is the path for this news event - More sells definitely make more sense to me at this point between now and the news event itself
I wouldn't sell yet by the way - I need confirmation of momentum (bearish) first
What do you think?
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Update - This bearish candle is worrying me a bit in terms of sells - It is inducing sellers at this point - which suggests that it could be a whipsaw (clear out both buyers and sellers) at this point - Which also makes sense for the dealer
Considering the fact that gold hasn't destroyed sellers for the NFP event on Friday - Maybe now is the dealer's chance to destroy EVERYONE
The question is if it were going to sell - why would it sell before the news event to start to get sellers interested?
I Definitely don't advice trading this market at this time AT ALL
I Still think the green line is possible but this is scary
Way too dangerous
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1 minute time frame shows a break and retest set up - in a class with a student and we just realized this.
Price actively targeting the previous high it just created maybe to stop out sellers before actually dropping - that would be lovely
At this time buyers again may be induced at this level to buy - which again strengthens my belief for sells
Again I am telling you - take my stupid advice, don't try to trade this news event lol
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Yup it is a whipsaw - Take out both buyers and sellers
God alone knows what can happen now - I told you guys to stay away, it was way to dangerous
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It could still sell from here (in accordance with the green line) however but again the after news volatility is still to high - I still don't advice trying anything
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That was a disgusting whipsaw - holyyyyyy wawwww
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How did I know it would likely be a whipsaw? The red candle prior to this candle sold it out - Let me explain
So the red candle that closed prior to this current candle is an outlier and the reason for that is simple
Why would the dealer go through all the stress of inducing buyers to buy and then try to also get sellers to sell - we have to constantly ask who is the dealer aiming to trap?
Originally I thought it would be the buyers alone but as soon as I saw that red candle I had to ask - why is the dealer inducing sellers as well?
The answer is he needs to clear the board - take out both buyers and sellers and that is very likely why the move is now playing out like I would have drawn earlier
Now that the board is cleared the dealer has enough liquidity (from both side - buyers and sellers) to make his move any way he sees fit.
The wick that is being created now further adds confirmation to this fact for me as he is still very much trying to get rid of any sellers who don't know how to deal with FOMO and are selling at this time DESPITE me warning not to do so lol
What you going to do right? the money has to come from somewhere - if you are trying to trade this now it is very likely that you are putting money into winning traders pockets later on
Godspeed folks
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We get paid as traders to UNDERSTAND contrary to popular belief, it is only when you understand you get paid - most traders have absolutely no idea what they are doing and are simply guessing and calling themselves traders
STOP. Slow down and try to understand what you are seeing.
Good luck to all traders today - Godspeed folks :)
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