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Gold's safe-haven behaviorIn the previous idea about gold, we expressed skepticism for overly bullish prospects in the short term (in the long term, we stay bullish). The main idea behind that is gold often reacts (initially) positively to geopolitical tensions, stock market weakness, or any type of disruptive event. Nevertheless, even if persistent, these events (or disruptions) eventually start to be priced in and ignored by market participants. Depending on many external factors, the periods of an initial positive reaction vary in length and strength. Below are charts illustrating this relationship between gold and SPX. Illustration 1.01 - 2021 market peak Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The orange line represents the S&P 500 Index. It can be observed that in late 2021 when SPX started to fall, gold reacted positively at first. However, this positive reaction lasted only for about two months. After that, gold started to follow the stock market to the downside. Illustration 1.02 - COVID-19 stock market crash The image above displays the daily chart of XAUUSD. The orange line represents the S&P 500 Index. Again, gold can be seen rising in an initial reaction to the COVID-19 stock market crash but falling later. Illustration 1.03 - 2007/2008 crisis Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). After the stock market peaked in 2007, gold continued to rise. In fact, it managed to go on an approximately 200-day rally before finally reversing to the downside (this is one of the strongest positive reactions in gold to the weakness in stocks). Illustration 1.04 - 1987 crash (Black Monday) Illustration 1.04 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). In response to the 1987 crash, gold rose for 111 days. Interestingly, its peak coincided with the stock market's bottom. Illustration 1.05 - 2010 flash-crash Above is the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). During the May 2010 selloff, gold reacted positively to the weakness in stocks at first. Then, it erased nearly all of its gains, rebounded again, and erased gains for the second time. Technical analysis Daily = Bullish Weekly = Slightly bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tradersweekly
2
Gold (GC1! Futures) Intraday ShortAfter Sunday's open, we are now back at the open of the night - plus one or two points. Starting the trading day early has it's benefits. The difference being now however that the short term trend has also now turned BEARISH. Now that the short term trend AND the overall trend are now the same, it's time to follow the overall bias. Looking to entry a SHORT position on a breakout of the new recent low, as this would provide confirmation that the price is truly reversing at this point. After the amount of news over the past few days, don't expect the pace of the market to slow down. The reactive trader will be the winner in this kind of environment. Be flexible with your view on the market or you will find yourself being left behind!
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Aaron_K_Trading
Gold (GC11 Futures) Mid Term Analysis - SHORTLast week saw a lot of emotional buying of the market. While some short positions were not viable later in the week, there has now been a clear rejection from: 1) The higher zone mentioned prior: 2) The previous long term weekly H&S pattern mentioned back in August: In terms of current price action, it seems that an inverse H&S pattern is forming on the daily. We can also see that in terms of the RSI - with tweaked values more suited for long term analysis - that the price is EXTREMELY overbought. Note on the chart that historically - when using my specific settings - that there is a high probability for a reversal. In terms of the DXY, TECHNICALLY it is still BULLISH on the daily, and has been simply consolidating for the past few days. Please note this infographic: The probability for a move down for Gold seems more likely. There are two scenarios: 1) A retrace to the first minor zone around 1973.5 - 1967, based on the Fibonacci retracement of the recent daily impulsive move. The bottom point starting from the low of Monday 16th, and the high point being Friday 20th. 2) A retrace to the purple zone, starting at 1940.5, extending down to 1921. This is based on the Fibonacci retracement of the recent weekly wave up: . Scenario 2 seems more like of the two, as it would be a logical place for the final shoulder to form in line with this analysis. There are a variety of ways to approach an entry for this week: 1) Buy PUT options around this price. If you do not have access to this functionality because you are trading CFD's, look into using the broker "Avatrade". They feature short term options spanning a few days, and while they are as powerful as traditional options, it can shield you from some of the short term volatility. 2) Look for a breakout sell below the low of Fridays candle, that being 1983.7 on the Futures. 3) Look for to short the 0.618 retracement of Fridays candle. 4) Look to short near the top of Fridays wick, essentially forming a double top. 5) Wait for a confirmed flip of the 21 / 55 EMA's, and look for a short around a relevant pivot. I will be opting for approach 1, as well as approach 3. Manage your risk accordingly. Just as a final note: Please note, there will be times where losses will be taken, but if you are entering around historical areas of support / resistance, they will be extremely negligible compared to your overall profits. Aim for points, not pips. Also please keep in mind, it is good practice to take profit as a position runs. Taking some profit out after 5 to 10 points is not a bad thing. I hope this analysis will help you for the week ahead. I will be posting more closer to time analysis throughout the week. The majority of my time will be spent either here OR in private chat, so if you have any questions, feel free to ask! Good luck! Disclaimer: This is not financial advice.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Aaron_K_Trading
How to trade gold if the Gaza war escalates?Where does gold go if the Gaza war escalates and are downside targets for gold pointless to think about right now? Perhaps it is prudent to think about some short-term retracements, but it does appear that the war will escalate or at least tensions remain heightened for quite some time, which is bullish for gold. The latest event that could escalate the Gaza war is the blast at the Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City that is said to have killed 500 people. Initially attributed to Israel, it is now looking more likely that it was caused by a rocket misfired from within Gaza. This was echo by U.S. President Joe Biden during his visit to Tel Aviv on Wednesday where he also pledged U.S. solidarity with Israel. Gold has already risen by more than $120 since the October 7th attack, and around $80 since last Friday. RSI is above the midpoint for most timeframes, but this indicator’s accuracy might be compromised considering the wider geopolitical context. $1,960 is the obvious upside target to be cleared, and then we might want to simply look at physiological levels rather than technical levels considering the unprecedented nature of the events that might be driving the gold price right now.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Gold Next Target: $1790.00? Check idea We have seen that the price has been going down continuously for the last several days, and yesterday gold reached $1820.00, which has pulled back a bit and is running up to $1826.00.   Our resistance is 1830 if it crosses it next.   Our resistance is 1835; we expect gold to bounce back from 1835 and come down; and our target is $1816, $1809, and $1790.00.   Apart from this, we also have news that will be released at 2 PM according to UK time, which can also affect the market, so keep watching the latest news, and our target is 1816, 1809, and 1790. We have resistance at 1830, 1835, and 1845, and also support at 1825, 1816, and 1809. We believe that if the market closes below 1816 and breaks the 1816 support, our next targets are 1809 and 1790.   If you like our analysis, then you can boost our posts. You can leave a comment in the comment section.   Good luck and best wishes to everyone.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MsProTrading
2
See our analysis of what the next target for gold isHello everyone, We hope you guys are having a great weekend.   We have seen over the past several days that gold has been consistently down since 1947, when it was back, and has been consistently down, never going up.   When the market closed on Friday, gold was running at 1848, while 1846 is a very strong support.   We think that gold will pull back from here and go between 1874 and 1878 because 1879 is a very strong resistance.   Again, gold will come down, and our target is 1830. If you like our analysis, then you can boost our posts. You can leave a comment in the comment section. Good luck and best wishes to everyone.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MsProTrading
7
$1,870 or $1,800 -> Which Direction for Gold?Gold has now hit a seven-month low at $1,830 just as the US government avoids a shutdown. Over the weekend, the U.S. Congress passed a stopgap funding bill. This means that important government information won't be delayed, and it won't make it harder for the Federal Reserve to decide what they might do with interest rates. Traders are starting to believe that interest rates will stay high for a long time, which is not good news for the precious metal market. Traders think there is a 55% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates between 5.25% and 5.50% this year, which might not be a great enough majority to convince gold traders to look for prices above $1,870 in the near term. However, Federal Governor Michelle Bowman mentioned yesterday that she's open to raising rates more if the data shows that inflation is not slowing down at a reasonable pace. Sentiment like this might keep gold above $1,800 for the time being though, and limit gold bears from overcommitting to a larger downfall. The next big data reports to affect the gold market will be this week's job openings data, private hiring numbers and nonfarm payrolls.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets