Gold's Local Minimum: A Magnet for Price Action?So, the trading week is behind us, and it’s time to kick back a bit, assess the price action, and build a trading plan for the upcoming week, keeping the main drivers in mind. Today, let’s focus on Gold.
Looking at the COT reports: there’s a divergence between the positions of the Commercials and the movement of the underlying asset.
What does that mean? It suggests that hedgers don’t see the need to increase their hedge positions (in the case of Gold, that means short positions). The interpretation here is that there’s a high probability of a correction in the underlying asset.
Retail positions show an average aggregated long position around $2707 (according to open-source data). So, for now, the average positions are in the green, which means the bulls are feeling good, but that’s not all... Remember that level $2707; we’ll come back to it later.
The options sentiment is mixed, with some repositioning in portfolios targeting both up and down, but with a slight bias. The specifics of these adjustments tell me that a correction is expected, but overall, the options traders still see the trend moving upward.
Now, let’s take a look at the chart and summarize.
Remember that level $2707 I mentioned earlier? Let’s find it on the chart. Oops... turns out that’s a local minimum. So, here’s the deal: there’s a level with liquidity (open positions + local minimum), in other words, we have a "magnet" that will definitely attract the prices.
Personally, I stick to a trading strategy of not trading against the trend, even if a correction is confirmed by my analysis. But for some, that potential downside might look appealing enough to open a short position.
Good Luck and Have a Nice Weekend!
Goldshortsetup
Scenario GOLD Maybe a short situation on gold, my analysis starts with a double top that formed around the price of 2770, according to this scenario, this double top could be considered the head of the head-shoulder formation, and as I have drawn, I am waiting for the price to fall to the level of 2560
XAUUSD - Gold Short Near Major Resistance of Trend Line here is my idea about short trade, I'm looking for a short entry expecting downside movement if the price continues to struggle below these levels.
Gold struggle to break trend line Resistance which is indicating me good idea for short
Entry Type: Short/Sale
Entry Price: 2565.556
Take Profit: 2556.176
Stop lose: 2574.973
Good Luck!
Gold 70,100 possible !!we have seen on daily time frame price formed rising wedge pattern
on friday 7jun we seen a bearish big candle confirming the breakdown of the pattern
price then tried to take a bounce from recent orderblock
but we can clear see that the bearish pressure is not letting the bullish orderblock go any further up
causing the price to form a small triangle pattern which will eventually work as buildup for more down side and we can 70,100 level in coming days
will further after price hits 70,100 level
follow for more
Gold short at the fibs level with the descending trendline.?As per the previously shared idea gold exactly hit 2050 , Is it right time to short.?
As per the Fibs and descending trendline gold looks like on the resistance now but any news can spark it to 2065 too.
Resistance level : 2050 ,2057, 2065 ,2088
Support level : 2041 , 2033 ,2026, 2015
Disclaimer : Plan your trade accordingly before risking your account .
Please hit like if you like my idea
Gold (GC11 Futures) Mid Term Analysis - SHORTLast week saw a lot of emotional buying of the market. While some short positions were not viable later in the week, there has now been a clear rejection from:
1) The higher zone mentioned prior:
2) The previous long term weekly H&S pattern mentioned back in August:
In terms of current price action, it seems that an inverse H&S pattern is forming on the daily. We can also see that in terms of the RSI - with tweaked values more suited for long term analysis - that the price is EXTREMELY overbought. Note on the chart that historically - when using my specific settings - that there is a high probability for a reversal.
In terms of the DXY, TECHNICALLY it is still BULLISH on the daily, and has been simply consolidating for the past few days. Please note this infographic:
The probability for a move down for Gold seems more likely. There are two scenarios:
1) A retrace to the first minor zone around 1973.5 - 1967, based on the Fibonacci retracement of the recent daily impulsive move. The bottom point starting from the low of Monday 16th, and the high point being Friday 20th.
2) A retrace to the purple zone, starting at 1940.5, extending down to 1921. This is based on the Fibonacci retracement of the recent weekly wave up: .
Scenario 2 seems more like of the two, as it would be a logical place for the final shoulder to form in line with this analysis.
There are a variety of ways to approach an entry for this week:
1) Buy PUT options around this price. If you do not have access to this functionality because you are trading CFD's, look into using the broker "Avatrade". They feature short term options spanning a few days, and while they are as powerful as traditional options, it can shield you from some of the short term volatility.
2) Look for a breakout sell below the low of Fridays candle, that being 1983.7 on the Futures.
3) Look for to short the 0.618 retracement of Fridays candle.
4) Look to short near the top of Fridays wick, essentially forming a double top.
5) Wait for a confirmed flip of the 21 / 55 EMA's, and look for a short around a relevant pivot.
I will be opting for approach 1, as well as approach 3. Manage your risk accordingly.
Just as a final note: Please note, there will be times where losses will be taken, but if you are entering around historical areas of support / resistance, they will be extremely negligible compared to your overall profits. Aim for points, not pips. Also please keep in mind, it is good practice to take profit as a position runs. Taking some profit out after 5 to 10 points is not a bad thing.
I hope this analysis will help you for the week ahead. I will be posting more closer to time analysis throughout the week. The majority of my time will be spent either here OR in private chat, so if you have any questions, feel free to ask!
Good luck!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice.
GOLD XAUUSD Trade IdeaGold has reached a significant resistance level on the 4-hour time frame. We're observing a potential selling opportunity, considering the chance that it might retrace from this point through an imbalance evident on the 4H chart. It's important to note that this should not be interpreted as financial advice. It's crucial to effectively manage your risk in any trading decision.
Gold Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Gold is ready to tumble to $1,810 before the riseIf you haven't followed my analyses for the last 15 years.
You'll know, I am a BIG gold bull.
Yes I know gold hasn't performed as well as it did in the 50s, 60s, 90s etc...
But it's the tortoise of commodities with the algorithms, the exposure in longs and shorts and with the greater variety of safe-havens.
But Gold will eventually head up to $100,000 eventually.
It's a waiting game.
For traders however, there is a short opportunity for downside which looks juicy on the radar.
We see an Inv Cup and Handle on the daily. The price has broken below the brim level, and there is a current test on the resistance.
It could even break above the brim and head and test the downtrend line. But right now the opportunity is leaning more to a short and downside to come.
Other indicators confirm.
21>7
Price>200 (Price heading to this level)
RSI<50 and lower highs (Sell divergence).
My first target is down to $1,810 then we will re-evaluate the next opportunity.
XAUUSD SHort 1h chart Hello traders, hope you are all doing great so far and having a profitable week, as you can see on the 1h chart, gold has been making a Wyckoff schematic, so far we are seeing the price going up to that supply zone, I'm expecting to go short from that supply zone to the downward demand zone.
GOLD - Short Trade Setup - We Need To See One More LowThis short trade setup is a high probably move to the downside which should complete the overall Wave E pattern.
In the video linked below I explain in further detail what we are looking at here.
Entry: At Market
Stop: $1811
Target: $1677
Risk Reward Ratio: 9
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
GOLD - Short Trade Setup Video - We Need To See One More LowIn this video I explain what we are seeing here and what this pattern is.
Given that I have adjusted the type of pattern identified and added the channel, this indicates that the downside is limited.
In order to complete Wave E we need to see the last part of this wave v zig-zag unfold and make one new low.
Entry: At Market
Stop: $1811
Target: $1677
Risk Reward Ratio: 9
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
GOLD SHORT LONGTERM PROJECTIONHere is my long term projection on gold short.... right now we are on the way to the 50% fib and the 61.8%...i am not quite sure which will be bottom
Because the 50% is at 1600 and the other at 1520....waiting for price action @1600 to see what will happen will update accordingly
Gold Short Swing Potential Hi Traders,
Ending this week off on a big red after Thursdays crash, gold finding support around 1745.
With Friday showing more buying pressure than selling pressure we would expect price to retrace slightly to around 1773 - 1780 before FOMC.
This would give us a good area to short for the possibility of tapering starting on the 22nd of September.
The Dollar has been very strong over the last few weeks and with inflation on the decline, jobs opening up as well as jobless claims on the decline it seems promising that we could see gold make a new low breaking the 1676 mark.
This would give another very good opportunity to swing long from a good price before Covid Delta impacts the economy.
Resistance on the 200MA as well as a defined downward channel still gives us indication that we are short Gold, it's down until it's not down.
This could be a 1:26 R:R trade, please trade with caution.
This is not financial advice
TH from RT_Trading
GOLD - Short Trade Idea - Big Move AheadThe last Gold idea was not triggered but now the waves have become clearer.
My view of the medium term pattern has changed slightly. I will touch on this in my next gold video.
I am expecting a pretty decent decline in Gold which IMO should be at least 15%.
For now just looking for an entry to short this market.
Entry: $1834
Stop: $1865
Target: TBA
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
GOLD - Short Trade Idea - Trade Wave (C) of Wave DIn this potential short trade we are looking for the start of Wave (C).
Only trade this if the following conditions are met.
Entry: $1830
Stop: $1851
Target: $1744
Risk\Reward Ratio: 4.5
If price goes above $1851 before the entry level is hit then this trade idea is invalidated.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
GOLD - Tracking Minor Waves - Are You Still Chillin? Really?If you are taking other peoples advice be careful!
If you are doing like crypto hodlers and economists by extrapolating be warned!
You will get burnt.
In this video I give you some golden nuggets for free but most importantly I prepare you for what comes next.
Please LIKE and FOLLOW to get notification of updates and future posts.
Original Gold Short Idea linked below.
GOLD LONG OPPORTUNITY - CAUGHT OUT BY A STOP LOSS HUNTHey traders,
I was in a long gold position today, unfortunately price spiked down to my stop loss. I linked my previous analysis and trade idea.
Now I'm waiting for Gold to come back down to 1495 at the minor S/R before entering long.
Gold is still in an ascending triangle pattern and for that reason i am bullish.
Price today was unable to close below the bottom line of the ascending triangle pattern.
Risk to reward of 1.6
Daily trade analysis and ideas:
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