XAUUSD - Short-term gold trading strategy, Gold goes up and downWorld gold prices tend to increase with spot gold increasing by 1.5 USD compared to last week's closing level to 2,006 USD/ounce.
Last week, the yellow metal continuously plummeted after hitting an all-time high at the beginning of the week and anchoring nearly 2,000 USD/ounce. Kitco News' latest weekly gold survey shows most retail investors still expect prices to rise this week, while the majority of market analysts have turned bearish or neutral on the outlook. Short-term outlook for the yellow metal.
Specifically, among Wall Street analysts participating in Kitco News's latest gold survey, only 20% forecast that gold prices will be higher this week, with more than half of experts predicting prices will decrease. Meanwhile, 59% of retail investors expect gold to increase. Retail investors expect gold prices to trade around 2,056 USD/ounce this week.
This week, developments in monetary policy meetings of major central banks around the world will be closely watched by the market. Accordingly, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Central Bank will meet on Wednesday, followed by the meeting of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday. All three banks banks are forecast to keep interest rates unchanged, although investors will still be watching to see if there is a change in the tightening trend and their forecasts.
Goldsignal
The trend is decreasing, the current reasonable entry pointGold prices rose after the release of weaker-than-expected US ADP jobs data.
Specifically, the US economy created 103,000 new jobs in November, much lower than the expected 130,000. The October figure was revised down to 106,000 from the previous estimate of 113,000.
These figures follow Tuesday's JOLTS US Job Openings survey, adding to evidence that restrictive monetary policy is starting to weigh on demand for workers.
On the other hand, the US ISM services PMI showed a larger-than-expected improvement, helping to negate a sharp slowdown in the US economy.
CME Group's FedWatch tool is pricing in a more than 50% chance that the US central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in March.
The market is in a moderately positive mood as investors grow increasingly confident that the major central bank tightening cycle is over.
XAUUSD - Gold continues to fall deeply, the moves weaken goldWorld gold price continues to decrease by 15 USD/ounce, down to 2,020 USD/ounce. This is the third consecutive day of decline for the precious metal since reaching a record high at the beginning of the week
The market waits for the US to release non-farm payroll data this weekend. The jobs report could affect the US interest rate outlook. Gold began to increase strongly when the market expected the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates as early as March. According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets forecast a 50% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates. rates in the first quarter of 2024. TD Securities experts said that market expectations for interest rate cuts may be premature and warned that gold's rally has exhausted itself.
GOLD (XAUUSD) Structure Analysis & Key Levels 🥇
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold.
Horizontal Key Levels
Resistance 1: 2142 - 2150 area
Support 1: 1998 - 2009 area
Support 2: 1963 - 1977 area
Support 3: 1930 - 1938 area
Vertical Key Levels
Rising trend line - daily candle close below that will turn that trend line
into a vertical resistance.
My focus is on a trend line at the moment.
We see a breakout attempt of that.
Daily candle close below will be an important sign of strength of the sellers.
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XAUUSD - Rising sharply then reversing with a shock declineGold price today dropped shockingly in the context of the USD Index increasing 0.37 points to 103.64 points. This causes the value of the USD to decline compared to many other strong currencies. The international gold market falls into a disadvantageous position.
On the other hand, gold prices dropped today when US bond interest rates increased to 4.4%/year. This factor has motivated many people to put capital into bonds. Meaning that money flowing into precious metals is limited. Since then, speculators speculated that the price of gold might go down, so they sold it to make a profit. The world gold price today at 6:00 a.m. on December 5 dropped to 2,030 USD/ounce.
Previously, at the beginning of December 4, the world gold price sometimes reached a record level of 2,147 USD/ounce. The main reason is that financial investors are afraid of risks, so they increased their need to shelter capital in gold when the US said missiles fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked three commercial ships in the Red Sea.
Gold prices fell more than 2% after hitting an all-time high as currency futures traders increased bets the US Federal Reserve (FED) would cut interest rates next year.
XAUUSD D1 - Long SetupXAUUSD D1 - Long Setup
So far this is the plan, scouting out support and psychological price of $2000/oz, to gear up for potential long positions.
A solid confluence zone which stacks out fib corrective measure too. 3 confluences, with stops covering previous area of demand and support/trend lows.
GOLD (XAUUSD) ATH Ahead! What is Next 🏆
What a bullish week for Gold.
The market closed approaching the ALL TIME HIGH!
Here is your plan for next week.
Bullish scenario:
if the price breaks and closes above 2074 on a weekly,
it will confirm the strength of the bulls one more time.
A bullish rally will push the prices to 2200 then.
Bearish scenario:
The market may drop from ATH as it happened 2 times in the past already.
Your bearish confirmation will be a bearish breakout of a support of a rising
channel on a daily. It will drop the prices at least to 2010.
Current geopolitical and macroeconomic situation strongly support a bullish scenario.
BUT I always say that it is safer to wait for a confirmation.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Technical Outlook & Important Decision Ahead 🥇
Here is my detailed analysis for Gold.
As you can see, the market is trading in a strong bullish trend.
The price is steadily growing within a rising parallel channel.
After the price reached its resistance, it started to consolidate within
a narrow horizontal range on a 4H.
We are expecting a PMI report and Powell speech later on today.
Depending on the news, I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish scenario.
Bullish breakout of the resistance of the range - 4H candle close above
may signify the strength of the buyers.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated to 2060 then.
Bearish scenario.
The price may respect the resistance of the range and drop from that,
extending the consolidation. Monitor the reaction of the price to that,
and wait for a bearish pattern to sell.
I would suggest strictly waiting for the news first.
I will post the update then.
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🥇Gold Roadmap🥇⏰(15-minute time frame)⏰🏃♂️Gold has been moving in an Ascending channel for several weeks .
🏃♂️Gold is currently near 🔴 Heavy Resistance zone($2,075.20.40_$2,035.20)🔴 and 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡.
🌊According to Elliott's wave theory , Gold seems to be completing the main wave 3 .
🔔I expect the main wave 3 in 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡to end and Gold to start falling again to the lower line of the ascending channel.
❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️ : The structure of microwave 4 from the main wave 3 can have different structures .
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, anbd Trade safe.
GOLD (XAUUSD) Overbought Market & Pullback 🥇
As I predicted, Gold bounced earlier this week.
Analyzing the price action now, we can see that the market became quite overbought:
the price formed a double top pattern with a lower high and violated its neckline.
We may anticipate a correctional movement now.
Goals: 2031 / 2024
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XAUUSD - Gold prices continue to increase sharplyWorld gold prices stabilized with spot gold increasing by 2.2 USD to 2,042.7 USD/ounce. February gold futures last traded at 2,065.2 USD/ounce, up 5 USD compared to yesterday morning.
The yellow metal was mildly volatile and had little reaction after the latest report showed the strength of the US economy in the third quarter. Specifically, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, US GDP in the third quarter increased by 5.2%, up from the estimate of 4.9%.
Stronger GDP data boosted the USD and put slight pressure on gold in mid-week trading. However, expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates in the first half of next year continue to keep bullion near a 7-month high.
Additionally, gold will still benefit from safe-haven demand due to concerns related to geopolitical tensions. Given those factors, SocGen analysts see a push above $2,000 as the start of a larger recovery that could keep gold prices at around $2,200 an ounce in 2024.
XAUUSD - Will gold continue to rise, strategy to buy GoldWorld gold prices increased slightly this morning with spot gold increasing by 2.5 USD to 1,992.1 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 1,993.3 USD/ounce, up 0.5 USD compared to yesterday morning.
World gold prices in the evening session of November 23 (Vietnam time) were stable during the Thanksgiving holiday. Analysts do not expect to see many price increases for the rest of the week as most traders are currently focused on this holiday and the "Black Friday" shopping festival.
Entering the holiday season, the gold market could not maintain a new increase above 2,000 USD/ounce as the market continued to monitor the minutes of the latest policy meeting from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Although the central bank left interest rates unchanged in its latest meeting, the minutes showed the committee was maintaining a hawkish stance as it expected to keep interest rates restrained for the foreseeable future.
Since late last week, gold has been strongly supported as expectations that the Fed has completed its interest rate hike cycle have been increasing after a series of published reports showing cooling inflation. Wednesday's hawkish Fed minutes and Wednesday's strong labor market data made investors hesitant to predict the Fed's next monetary policy move. Rising expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates “higher for longer” and a decline in the likelihood that it will begin cutting rates in the first half of 2024 have limited gold's gains.
Despite this, some experts still maintain optimism that gold prices will eventually move higher as seasonal factors could play a larger role in price action and be positive for gold.
Xauusd:2008 strong resistance
Key indicators of changes in market sentiment on Wednesday also included a report of a decline in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits, which hit a five-week low of 209,000 (lower than the expected 225,000), indicating a tightening labor market.In addition, the University of Michigan's inflation expectations report is even worse. The report emphasizes that consumers expect the inflation rate to be about 3.2% in the next five years, and U.S. consumers still believe that the inflation outlook is higher.This forecast is closely watched because it may affect the Fed's interest rate decision and reflects people's continued concerns about inflation if expectations continue to be high.On Thursday and Friday, Thanksgiving Day in the United States, the US market will be closed early
Gold reached its highest level in 2006 yesterday, and has not broken through 2008 for 4 consecutive times, so it can be judged that the resistance here in 2008 is very strong.
As can be seen from the chart, the volatility range of gold is getting smaller and smaller
A series of economic data released yesterday is the Lido dollar index. The US index has risen from 103 to 104.2. It is possible to reach the bottom. As a reverse indicator of gold, it is not conducive to the continued rise of gold.
So as long as gold rebounds above 2000, you can still choose to sell. You need to observe the support strength of 1985-1987 and strictly do a good stop loss, so that your success rate will be greatly increased.
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Gold Route Map UPDATEHey Everyone,
Yesterday we had price retrace down into support structure and we said we were expecting a reaction on this zone for a bounce for over 60 pips.
- This played out perfectly for the bounce
Price will now bounce between the range 1989 and 2003.
A retest at 2003 followed with a cross and lock will open the range above.
A cross and lock below 1989 will open 1978 and a cross and lock below 1978 will confirm further movement down.
Our levels are still valid to track and trade the movement up and down.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we share every week for the past 18 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGETS
1978 - DONE
1989 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 1989 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2003 - DONE
2018
BEARISH TARGETS
1978 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 1978 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
1965 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 1965 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
1935
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
XAUUSD - On Bank Holiday, gold tends sidewaysWorld gold prices this morning decreased slightly with spot gold down 8.1 USD to 1,989.6 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 1,991.8 USD/ounce, down 9.8 USD compared to yesterday morning.
The precious metals market in the trading session before the Thanksgiving holiday was under slight selling pressure when the latest report showed a surprise improvement in the US labor market. According to a report by the US Department of Labor, weekly applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 24,000 to 209,000 in the week ending November 18, down from the previous week's upwardly revised estimate of 233,000 applications. The latest labor market data was much better than expected as experts estimated 225,000 applications.
After the report, the dollar recovered from its lowest level and Treasury yields pared earlier losses, pushing gold off the key psychological threshold of $2,000 an ounce.
The US Dollar Index has risen to a daily high and that is limiting some gold buying demand, said senior analyst Jim Wyckoff at Kitco Metals.
However, experts say that gold's decline has been limited by recent expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has ended its interest rate hike cycle. Lower interest rates typically boost gold prices because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Previously, gold bars reached a 2-week high of 2,007.29 USD/ounce.
XAUUSD - When the uptrend ends, Gold declines againGold price today (November 22), world gold increased sharply compared to the previous session's close, approaching the 2,000 USD/ounce mark. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has released the minutes of its November monetary policy meeting, causing investors to buy gold when forecasting slow economic growth.
The Fed also said that economic growth slowed in other business sectors, so the Fed expects economic growth in the fourth quarter to "slow markedly" as third quarter gross domestic product increased by 4.9%. The Fed believes that risks to overall economic growth may be tilted to the downside, while risks to inflation are tilted to the upside. Current interest rate policy is restrictive and is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation.
However, inflation is still much higher than the target level, experts say it is likely that the Fed will maintain interest rates at the current level for a while until inflation clearly declines in a sustainable way. “The FOMC minutes were cautiously hawkish,” said BMO Capital Markets strategist.
Low sales in both the retail and housing sectors show that people are tightening their spending. The Fed also stated that economic growth will slow down in the fourth quarter of 2023, which is the reason why investors fear increased risks and boost gold purchases.
Xauusd:Will it break through 2000?
The annualization of the total number of new housing starts in the United States and the total number of construction permits announced on Friday have shown a strong rebound. We all know the stimulating effect of real estate on economic growth. The continued rise in real estate data will also push up the prices of raw materials, home improvement appliances and other commodities, which will make the US inflation data appear resilient to stop falling.
On this point, Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee (2023 FOMC Voting Committee) pointed out in his speech: the housing price sub-item in the inflation data is a key indicator.
But gold did not break through the key point of 1995
Because it's still an upward trend, you can still wait for key support points to buy
Observe the resistance of 1995
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XAUUSD - Gold rebounded due to the Fund, is it possible to sell?On the night of November 20, today's spot gold price on the world market stood around 1,973 USD/ounce. Gold delivered in December on the Comex New York floor was at 1982 USD/ounce.
The world gold price on the night of November 20 was about 8.2% higher (149 USD/ounce) compared to the beginning of 2023.
World gold tends to continue last week's increase after inflation in the US cooled down. It is likely that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon reverse monetary policy and reduce interest rates.
This week, the Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. Market signals show that the Fed will almost certainly keep interest rates unchanged at its December policy meeting and will likely maintain it at 5.25% - 5.5% until June next year.
The USD on the world market decreased quite quickly. The DXY index - measuring the fluctuations of the greenback against a basket of 6 major currencies, dropped sharply from 104.1 points at the end of last week to 103.6 points at the beginning of the trading session on November 20 on the US market.
Gold Idea - XAUUSDOANDA:XAUUSD SAXO:XAUUSD Gold vs US Dollar
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⚠️ Disclaimer: The viewpoints shared represent my individual outlook on the market, based on publicly accessible information and historical data. While a portion of these opinions is influenced by my actual trades, others are not. It's important to note that I am not a financial advisor, and I do not assume any responsibility for the decisions you make in your trading activities.
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DXY keeps falling on recent news, Gold continues to riseWorld gold prices rose as the code hit a 2-week high as expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates in the spring increased.
World gold prices increased sharply this morning with spot gold increasing by 21.6 USD to 1,980.8 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 1,987.3 USD/ounce, up 23 USD compared to yesterday morning.
Gold prices soared to a 2-week high as they were boosted by falling US Treasury bond yields amid the prospect that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has completed its cycle of raising interest rates and will carry out interest rate cuts next spring increasingly.
Ole Hansen, commodity strategist at Saxo Bank, said that gold will maintain its recent strong gains as long as prices hold above $1,930 an ounce. He said the prospect of lower interest rates and demand from central banks will be strong enough support factors for gold to withstand any short-term strength from economic data.
Data on Wednesday showed US producer prices fell the most in 3.5 years in October, the latest sign that inflation pressures are easing, while retail sales fell for the first time. after 7 months. Previously on Tuesday, data showed that US pepper prices were unchanged compared to the level recorded in October.
GOLD - Gold trading strategy on November 16World gold prices increased today (November 16), but conflicting US inflation data is increasing volatility and risk for precious metal investors.
Traders' and investors' attitudes were more optimistic midweek following reports that the US consumer price index for October increased 3.2% year-on-year. CPI is forecast to increase 3.3% year-on-year, compared to a 3.7% increase in the September report. October PPI fell 0.5% from September compared to expectations of a 0.0% increase. 1% during this period. CPI and PPI data met the expectations of those who wanted to see the Federal Reserve pause its interest rate tightening cycle. Now, many Fed market observers believe that the US central bank will continue to pause interest rate increases in the coming months.
US stock indexes were higher and at multi-week highs in midday trading, following sharp gains posted on Tuesday.