How Long Can Gold Rise? what is the Next Target? Gold has already broken its trendline resistance, and more upside bias is coming soon. But we have to be cautious that gold has reached its swing and profit-taking zone and have to consider Russia's reserves.
Of course, gold has more room for going upside, but don't forget Russia has enormous gold reserves and might have to tap those if it's cut off from the global financial system. So, gold must go in some correction to the downside from the current zone.
From the present rate, gold may test $1950/1960, and then I expect it will go to correction till the $1908/1915 price zone. In my last article, I did mention gold's first target is $1908/191. This target has already been done. Our second target was $1950/1960. Thou high tested was $1848, I mean nearly our second target.
SO, after testing our second target, I expect gold to drop first nearly to its immediate support level of $1908/1915 level, then gold will rise again if the Russi-Ukraine crisis exists.
So, I am expecting a correction though gold has broken above the trendline resistance. So, it would be too costly if you buy at this current level. SO, wait for the correction and buy again.
Please comment, share, and join me if you like my analysis.
Goldsignal
Gold: Why Gold Dropped Hard and What is the next Destination?during the weekend, we had shared our views on gold might going to drop, and that really happened. from my personal view, I have found 3 reasons behind the Gold's flash crash early market opening.
1. Last week's massive US job market report.
2. Gold was raised when most of the central banks cut their interest rate to support their economy during the pandemic. Now, many central banks are thinking to increase the bank's rate again. August 18, RBNZ is going to hike their bank rate is expected.
3. Timing also may play behind today's Gold's flash crash. The time gold dropped, most of the time flash crashes happen that time. because of thin liquidity. U.S market is closed, UK/European they are in bed, Asian traders aren't out of bed yet. only Australian and New Zealand market is open those are a relatively small market.
So, now the question is, Will Gold Drop More?
Most possibly Yes. after the flash crashes, we have seen before the market goes for a big correction. that really happening in the market right now. This week the U.S has an inflation report to be released. if the come can meet expectation the FED has more chance to rake hike again this year. so, the Gold may drop again.
What about the technical analysis?
technically gold is in a bearish mode we have shared many times. From the present price zone, 1760 is the major resistance. breaking above 1760 is a hard job. in case It breaks above 1760, we may see more upward correction till 1790/1800 price zone. I think 1970/1800 is the perfect price zone for sell entry. as long as the market is below the 1760 price zone, there is still have a chance to sell Gold.
As usual, stop loss should be above the 1840 price zone. and the first target 9s 1725 and final target as we gave our last analysis is 1680/1680 zone. last analysis hit our target and bounced back from the 1680 price zone.
N:B: Don't rush for selling Gold immediately, let the market for correction and chart pattern or any news outcome.
Gold Weekly Forecast: Gold is heading to uncertainty. The strengthening of the US dollar and the narrowing of the yield differential between US T-bonds have fueled the rise of XAU/USD. Furthermore, in response to Jerome Powell's comments on Friday regarding high inflation, the gold price rose to its highest level since early September at $1 815.50 before falling again shortly after.
Before this weekend's holiday festivities and tomorrow's FOMC Chairmen Powell addressed Friday at a Bank for International Settlements seminar. "Inflation will linger longer than predicted," he said, adding, "the tools available." However, with 2022 so close, there seemed to be less fear about an eventual fall down to earth.
What happened last week?
The market's defeatist attitude was exacerbated by China's weak growth figures, which boosted the dollar.
POSITIVE EARNINGS STATISTICS LIFTED large US banks' equities on Monday, helping the major Wall Street indexes gain traction. This allowed risk flows into financial markets to restrict XAU/USD losses once more, as USD weakness drove them up (and rising Treasury bond yields).
This trend persisted on Tuesday, with no significant macroeconomic reports supporting commodities like gold mining shares.
The S&P 500 Index closed at an all-time high this week, as gold rose to new weekly highs. On Thursday morning, initial unemployment claims fell below 290K for the first time since March 2020, adding to the evidence that things are looking up in the West.
With the recent interest rate hikes by the Fed in December, they have increased the opportunity to return capital through traditional lending markets while still keeping rates low enough that people won't notice much impact if any.
What About The Next week?
Investors stay on the sidelines ahead of major events, so the market is unlikely to react substantially. What will include these figures in a US economic docket on Tuesday, but they could impact the future because of how soon they come out.
While you may have had a lot going on in your brain, including fear or excitement, the tone of your output should stay nice.
We will get our first estimate of third-quarter GDP growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Given that the lackluster September Nonfarm Payrolls data did not change the Fed's tapering plans. We could see another leg upward in T-bond yields in the coming weeks.
A breach above 1.75 percent for the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield would open the door to new prospects for dollar strength. If you've been struggling financially because your income isn't quite enough longer, these figures may be able to help you get back on track.
On the one hand, if the Federal Reserve delays its planned reduction in asset purchases to cool down the markets, it might generate significant investor issues.
Anything might happen in the market next week, given how unpredictable it currently is. Several pieces of news will be released that could have an impact on the direction stocks take.
Facebook's earnings report will be released on Wednesday (in which they forecast $5 billion in revenue). Amazon's quarterly results after trading hours on Thursday evening EST/Wednesday afternoon PST. They are expecting to generate more than $55 billion this time around.
Still, it depends on whether there was any disruption from last month when one of its distribution centers experienced an overflow during Prime Day, which caused some shipments to be delayed.
XAU/USD Technical Analysis
Technically market is on an uptrend in a short time frame. But along bearish candle may send the gold lower, as I have seen many times before.
Last Friday, Powell didn't send any strong message; instead, he was a bit dovish. Still, gold dropped from the rising trend line. As two weeks back, average earnings rose, and next week some big tech company will release their earnings report. So it is supposed to have good earnings reports.
So, fundamentally there is a chance that gold may drop again. from the present rate, $1780/1775 will play as a strong support zone. Breaking below $1775 gold may test the $1760/1763 price zone.
Breaking below $1760, testing the $1745/1750 price zone won't be hard. Absolutely $1745/1750 will act as solid support. And we have seen some upward correction nearly $1780 price zone again from $1745/1750.
Finally, if we see gold price breaks below $1745, we will set our last target at the $1720/1725 price zone.
On the other hand, $1808 is the immediate resistance from the present rate, and the swing area is identified at the $1715 price level. So, we may go for but if the gold price breaks above the $1715 price zone. $1730/1735 has been acting as an acritical resistance for a long time.
So, if we buy above the $1715 price zone, we must close it to nearly the $1730 price zone. If gold price can break above #1735 price, we must think for a long term buy at least almost $1900 price zone.
Gold Analysis Ahead Of FOMC: Gold Stuck In Trendline Resistance Once again, Gold could not break above its trendline resistance level of the $1854 price zone. Gold almost dropped more than 250 pips from its swing high spot of the $1853.50 price zone.
We already know that today is the FOMC. I don't want to take your time too long by just saying that I will repeat why Gold is rising every day.
Fundamental factors are still supportive of Gold. But today, the FOMC is more important than some other fundamental analysis. In March, the market expects a 25 BP rate hike and a four-rate hike in 2022. The CPI rate has risen since Dec 1982, and Omicron still exists in pace.
We have to focus on today's bullet points.
How front-loaded is Powel about the U.S economy?
How aggressive speech does he deliver about rate hikes?
How many times does he signal for a rate hike?
Are they hiking their rates based on economics or not?
What about inflation?
If you get these four questions answered, it will be easy to decide what to do about the Gold. Either dollar will be strong or weak, and you will get a clear idea.
If Powell signals front-loaded economic conditions and delivers more aggressive hikes signals in March and more than four times in 2022, the gold price will drop nearly $1810/1800 price zone.
On the other hand, If Powell expects inflation to drop quickly, rate hikes depend on their upcoming economic data, and four-time rate hikes still not their mind, the gold price will rise, and the Gold may test the $1865/1870 price zone immediately.
They are the main keywords for the FOMC today, from my view.
Technically, Gold has dropped from the trendline resistance level. If you see the daily chart, it will be more precise. 1454/1858 is the trendline resistance from the current price. As long as the gold price is below the trendline resistance, it has most possible that the gold price may drop.
Only gold can break above the trendline resistance if the statement is dovish. Otherwise, it would be hard to break above the trendline this week.
Though the market has retraced from the trendline resistance, it still holds above the trendline support price zone. If the market breaks below the $1828 price zone in the short time frame, it may drop nearly $1810/1800 price zone. Finally, breaking below $1800/1795 may open the door for the $1785/1787 price zone. But for this scenario, it needs a very hawkish statement.
On the other hand, if Powell delivers a dovish statement, Gold initially may recover today's loss and may test nearly $1850/1855 price zone. Breaking above $1855 may push the almost $1870 price zone.
Nice Risk Reward RatioThe US Fed's emergency meeting and Russia Invasion news caused the crazy spiked on Gold, its news-driven price action.
Technically, I see an excellent risk-reward ratio to shorting Gold. If the price stays below the red resistance, I reckon Gold at least will fall to the target 1, 2, and 3 to retest the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.
Be cautious of another breaking news on the weekend; we never know.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close above the red resistance
Even though I know, DXY does not always have a perfect correlation with the Gold price. Currently, DXY is still above the Trendline and potentially will retest the 97.7 level.
Gold Analysis: Breaking above 1765 may open the door for 1830What happened the last week?
Gold is on a hot streak! Last week, the yellow metal saw some relief as it went up against the U.S. dollar and other currencies worldwide. As a result, the gold has ended its three-week decline.
But will this temporary victory be more than just an illusion? With uncertainty surrounding global energy production brewing into what many fear could become another 2008-style crisis.
China Evergrande debt issue, tapering fears from Federal Reserve banks, and The U.S. political drama sent the gold price high in the last week despite the U.S. dollars positive economic reports.
In such an environment, investors may not want to risk tying their fortunes too closely with one element when they don't know which way things are going next month. But one thing we should not forget is that October is not suitable for gold buyers, and it is historically proven.
Last week, the FOMC was hawkish, and T-bond helped the USD; as a result, gold tested nearly 1722 price areas. Even FOMC members hint that the tapering may start soon, and rate hiking is expected in 2022. The U.S. economics reports were also positive than forecast.
But all positive factors for the USD didn't stop the rising gold price because of inflation expectations, the U.S. political drama, China Evergrande debt issue, tapering fears, and uncertainty on global energy production.
Great Britain is suffering from a lack of oil and gas. We also saw the oil and gas price jump up as a result. It means investors are concerned about inflation expectations.
What about the next week?
Several market move data will be published in the next week, including the U.S. job market reports. Last month's NFP report was too negative. It was supposed to, because august added a high number of jobs in the U.S. economy, and September's forecast was also a high number. Usually, it seemed a difficult position.
Anyhow, The next few days will be interesting for gold traders. The Chinese markets are closed on Thursday, which should allow volatility in Asian trading while they remain closed through Tuesday's US ISM Services PMI (which is informative).
Wednesday morning brings us ADP Nonfarm Employment Change which gives insight into America's job market growth rate before we see any indication from the Federal Reserve regarding tapering expectations towards monetary policy changes due out later.
The U.S. Department of Labor's weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be drawing some attention alongside New York Federal Reserve President John William's speech on Thursday.
Friday brings in the all-important NFP data expectations for a better-than-expected print at 500K vs. last month's abysmal 235k figure. It indicates that what may have well-made progress towards meeting Fed Chairman Powell and Co.'s goal for maximum employment - it'll be closely eyed, no doubt.
The price of gold will remain at the mercy of market sentiment. Investors must keep their eye on what is happening in U.S. politics and how global energy crises are playing out. Investors will also keep an eye on the economic data from around the world, including emerging markets.
China has recently started investing more heavily in technology stocks rather than buying physical ones. They used to do it just because there's too much supply already causing inflation across all types of goods these days. So, be careful. Gold's price does not just depend on one factor.
Gold Technical analysis
Gold stuck below the descending trendline. Technically though, it is still in a downtrend. But I am a bit confused that the positive economic reports failed to send gold prices lower from the resistance level.
Usually, gold drops from such a strong resistance level just for a technical reason. But last week, that didn't happen. That means market sentiment favoring higher gold prices.
So, from the present rate, resistance and breakout area is identified at the 1765 price zone. If gold price can break above 1765, it may open the 1780/1785 price zone. I think gold will go for correction from the 1785 price zone.
But in case gold breaks above the 1785/1890 price zone, it is expected to hit again above the 18000/1805 price zone. And our final upside target is the 1830/1835 zone. I don't think gold will be able to break above 1835 easily. Even October is not a good month for gold buyers; it is historically proved.
On the other hand, if we see the global energy production crisis settled and the U.S. job market reports can fulfill the expectations, it is just a matter of time that the gold price will drop heavily. From the present rate, immediate support is identified at the 1750 price zone. Breaking below 1750 will open the door for the following support 1725/1720 price zone.
1720/1725 price zone may act as a retracement area for gold. But breaking below 1720, it is expected gold may hit below the 1700 price zone.
Potentially a bear flag at the 50% Fibonacci retracement. The last drop was from 1853 to 1780 (Chart attached below); it was a pretty good trade for the seller.
If we draw a Fibonacci retracement from 1853 to 1780, the 50% Fib is currently at the 1816-1820 zone. The 50% Fib indicates that the Bearish momentum is not that strong.
Also, I notice a potential bear flag pattern, a pretty lovely risk-reward ratio to try to sell gold down at least to the bottom flag line, maybe below if it can break out below the bottom bear flag line.
This week, there's not much high-impact US data, so most likely, it's all based on the price action.
The catalyst:
- US CPI
- Unemployment Claims
- 30-y Bond Auction
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close above the upper bear flag line and the 61.80% Fib retracement at 1825 Zone.
Target:
- There are many short-term targets, mid-term targets at the bottom flag lines, Long-term targets maybe below at 1760-1680 zone.
Gold Price Analysis: Market is waiting to test 1830 again. Gold has been making a solid comeback in the past week, and today it reached above $1800 for the first time since the first week of September.
This bit long-awaited move finally came after weeks of impressive gains made following Wednesday's upsurge, which saw gold preserved its bullish momentum. That is an important milestone that XAU/USD has reached above the $1800 price zone.
The reason behind such good fortunes? Falling U.S. Treasury bond yields seem to be fueling these advances with their recent poor performance weighing heavily upon USD prices.
N.F.P. came super negative, Market sentiment helping the gold price to up as well. Though yesterday C.P.I. printed positive today, PPI fades away. Last week before N.F.P., most U.S. economic reports came positive, but the USD outperformed against the gold.
The dollar Index falls below 93.80, nearly ten days lows; as a result, investors are seeking haven assets like Precious Metals. So, recent fundamental and market sentiment is helping the gold price to rise.
Technical View:
In one of my previous articles, I mentioned that breaking above 1865 may open the door for the 1830/1835 price zone. It seems that the gold market is heading to the 1830/1835 price zone.
From the present price zone, immediate resistance is showing at the 1807/1810 price zone. But keep in mind, every round figure play as a support and resistance. SO, 1800 price may play as minor resistance.
So, breaking above 1800, next target 1807/1810 price zone. After 1810 gold price may be headed to the 1830/1835 price zone. 1830/1835 price zone is a strong resistance zone and profit-taking zone. So, we may see a significant correction from the 1830/1835 price zone.
On the other hand, the gold price rose nearly 450+ pips since yesterday. So, it may be correct to lower if we see Retail Sales and Core retails print positive tomorrow. But I think it has less chance. But usually, it is showing overbought in R.S.I. SO, it may be correct too.
As long as gold's price holds above 1780, an uptrend channel's support. We should not go for short. Instead, gold may go up again after testing the 1780/1785 price zone. In case if we see gold price breaks below rising trendline support. We will go for short, and the next target should be the 1750 price zone. And finally, breaking below 1750, the last target to the downside is the 1720/1725 price zone.
Gold can show up a bearish move here on this flag following 1760Market Instrument: XAUUSD
Timeframe: H4
Analysis: Technical
Structure: Key Level, Support, Bear Flag
Prediction: Bearish
GOLD has been moving under pressure for so long time while the price is moving inside this highlighted key level and support. At the moment price has created a bear flag after breaking out on the ABC pattern. If the price respects the following key level for one more time we will see another drop breaking these levels below. The following bearish target is expected to revisit the support formed close to 1765
XAUUSD Short Tram BUY NOW
💹XAUUSD(GOLD) ⏬ BUY STOP @ 1794.500 ((Scalping Trade))
✅TP-1# 1805.500
✅TP-2# 1818.500
⛔️SL 1777.777
N.B- MUST USE SL BECAUSE ITS WAVE CORRECTION ENTRY.
AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of
reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals
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Gold Price: 1D Chart ReviewHello friends, today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1D linear scale chart for the Gold price per ounce (GOLD).
The chart is self-explanatory. Keep a close eye on the RSI as a possible re-test of the Support and Resistance Line is coming soon.
Included in the chart: Trend line, Support and Resistance Line, RSI, Support Zone, Descending Parallel Channel, Ascending Broadening Wedge, Descending Broadening Wedge.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
I have a bunch of additional recent charts below on cryptocurrencies, stocks, and other assets to review. Check them out!
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
Gold still in neutral bias, Upside-downside both risks remain Gold prices are dominated mainly by the USD, geopolitical factors, bank rates, economic crisis, inflation, bond yields, and FED monetary policy.
Last FOMC was a bit hawkish than dovish. That helped the USD to gain against the gold prices. But at the U.S season, 10 years bond dropped a bit. As a result, gold has recovered nearly $20 from last week's low. However, gold price consolidates almost psychological and minor trendline resistance level of $1800.
If the bond market slides today, gold may again go up and test the nearly $1805 price zone.
Two reasons are playing behind the gold's drop.
Powells hawkish statement
Central bank's rate-hiking cycle.
We know if central banks raise bank rates, that negatively impacts gold and bitcoin prices because both don't pay any overnight interest as currency does through swaps.
FED hints they will hike bank rates in March, and every rate decision date is possible to hike though they didn't fix it four times this year. And the bank of England is expecting to rise 25BP rates this week.
These two factors are all other fundamental issues favoring gold to go upside. Covid situation, Russia-Ukraine crisis, United Arab Emirate-Houthis crisis still exist even though higher inflation is another supportive factor that could help gold rise again.
From my experience, I have seen many times, when the inflation is too high, the central bank's rate-hiking can't stop gold buying bias from the investors.
I hope this time we also will see that the gold price rises during the rate hike cycle. So considering every circumstance, I still think as long as gold is above the $1770 price zone, it could test the $1846/1850 price zone again. But before it goes up again, it needs to break and stabilize above the $1805 price zone.
Technical Analysis
From the present rate, immediate resistance is $1800. Breaking above $1800 will open the door for an $1805 price zone. If the gold price stabilizes above $1805, it may drop to nearly $1780 (Trendline Support) again.
But if the gold price manages to break above $1805, the next target is $1828 and finally $1846/1850 price zone.
On the other hand, if the central bank's rate-hiking cycle impacts gold negatively, gold may break below the $1770 price zone. Breaking below $1770 will open the door for the $1750 price zone. Breaking below $1750, the next target is $1725, and the final target to the downside is $1680/1685 price zone.
XAUUSD will drop further to find a strong support 1785 then 1765Market Instrument: XAUUSD
Timeframe: H4
Analysis: Technical
Structure: Support and Trend line Breakout
Prediction: Bearish
We have seen a strong bearish follow in gold prices recently where the picked up trend line on H4 has now breached with a strong move to the downside. Here I believe the next strong support is holding close to the 1760 area. If the bearish pressure remains stronger we will see a further drop following 1785 then 1765 accordingly.
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD is still in positive mode.Several reasons are playing behind the rising of gold prices. The main catalysts for rising gold prices are omicron concerns, geopolitical factors, stock crashes, and downbeat yields.
Today, we have seen the Asian stock market slip and yields drop. But, on the other hand, a Russian attack on Ukraine is a growing risk.
This week we have federal open market committee meeting minutes. The market is expecting a hawkish statement. If the FED delivers a hawkish statement, this may only stop the bias of rising gold. Otherwise, I don't see any other fundamental factors that can stop the bias of rising gold prices.
Technically gold is also in an uptrend. Last time the strongest support was the $1828/1830 zone price. And the gold price is still holding above the support zone. But in the daily chart, gold is hovering below the trendline resistance.
So, it is a bit hard to decide where to buy the gold in this place or wait for more confirmation.
There is no doubt that fundamentally gold is still in mode, but technical analysis says we should wait for more confirmation.
Gold Daily Chart
We can buy at the zone if we find gold near the support zone, like the $1830 price zone. For example, in the H1 chart, trendline support identifies the $1830/1815 price zone. So, if we can buy from the particular price zone, we can make some pips.
I always recommend trading in a higher timeframe. The higher timeframe we will use, the better result we will get.
The H1 chart shows that $1815 is the last support. And breaking below $1815 may change the trend. But if you see the H4 or Daily chart, we find that $1800 is major support. So as long as gold prices are above $1800, it will still be uptrend. That's why I always suggest seeing and trading in daily or H4 charts.
The H1 chart is forming another bullish flag, breaking above $1843/1848. We will get the confirmation. So, if we buy at $1843, our first target will be $1848. As $1848 is a trendline resistance zone and strong resistance level.
So, we should wait till the market breakout. Then, if the gold price breaks above the $1848/1850, we must continue our buy trade, and our second target should be at the $1858/1860 price zone. And final target to the upside is the $1875 price zone.
XAU/USD is looking interestingSo when we look at the chart we can see that the price is kind of trading in a range like we see with a lot of pairs at the moment. What we could do now is just either wait for that range to be broken or we can see if we still have the possibility to go and range trade it. For now I would just wait and see what the price does when it is going to reach the high of the range. There are 2 things that can happen:
1) We get a break of the channel and have a good chance to go long
2) The price reverses back of the resistance zone and the high of the range and we can go short on it.
If you have any questions feel free to send me a message.
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Gold stuck in trendline resistance, What is next? Gold reached its trendline resistance zone. As a result, the gold reached its highest level at $1848 for two months.
Next, the FED will announce their monetary policy, and I think gold will rise slowly until the FED meeting. There is a big chance that the FED will rise in March and four times this year.
That may bit hampered the pace of rising gold as gold is a good hedge against inflation; from this aspect, gold is still safe and the number one safe-haven asset to the investors during global growth and crisis.
Geopolitical tensions in the West also formed an additional factor supporting gold prices, as skirmishes intensified between Russia and the United States of America after US President Biden indicated that he expected Moscow to move towards Ukraine after it mobilized 100,000 soldiers near the borders of Ukraine, for the Biden administration to announce about $200 million. Additional defense military aid to Ukraine.
Overall, I am still in buy mode in gold, but as gold reaches its trendline resistance level, I am waiting for some downward correction or breaking above the trendline resistance.
Technical analysis:
Based on the current price, $1848/1856 is the trendline resistance zone. So, I will suggest not to buy in the particular price zone.
After breaking above $1856, our first upside target is the $1870/1875 price zone. However, $1870/1875 is a high swing area tested in November 2021. So, the market may take some time to break above the $1875 price zone. Finally, after breaking above $1875, my last target is the $1900/1910 price zone.
On the other hand, as gold is hovering below the trendline resistance, it is very common that gold may drop from this level for correction and profit-taking purposes.
So, if gold drops from this level, it may test the $1830/1828 price zone. Breaking below $1828, it can test the $1823 price zone. However, I am not expecting more than that about this week. So, something doesn't happen unexpectedly, and I don't think gold will change its uptrend very soon.
Gold is still in an uptrend as long as above the $1800....Gold is an uptrend in the long time frame, like monthly and weekly. However, the market seems in range and bound in the daily chart.
In the last week, inflation has risen, and the USA cannot print its retail and core retail sales positively. Even omicron is still spreading all over the world. This week Tsunami Tonga hits. So, it is clear that most of the fundamental factors are still favoring the gold against all the major pairs.
So, fundamentally gold is in an uptrend, there is no doubt. But, even in the higher time frame, gold is in a long position.
In the h4 chart, gold is rising, testing trendline support and dropping trendline resistance.
$1830/1835 makes a strong resistance level from the present rate. Often, gold tested to break the $1830/1835 price, but the market was unable to break above the strong resistance level of the $1830/1835 zone though all the fundamental factors are supporting.
So, we should wait to buy gold until it breaks above the $1830/5 price zone or tests nearly trendline supports the $1805/1807 price zone. Because $1807/$1800 creates strong trendline support as well.
If we buy from the $1805/1800 price zone, our stop loss is below the $1796/1795 Price zone. And upside target is $1830, the next target is $1855, and finally $1865/1870 price zone.
On the other hand, if gold breaks below the trendline support $1800 price zone, we may short gold and target should be near $1780/1785 price zone and final target to the downside is $1760/1765 price zone.
GOLD RANGING...AND UP AGAINHello traders, starting this week I will start doing my weekly analyzes for the year 2022! I wish you a happy and fulfilling New Year
As I said last weeks since March 21..after 8 months in which all my analyzes about GOLD were almost perfect,
...as you can see ... GOLD is on an upward Fibonacci but has also made a strong downward trend line!
In the next period I will wait to see the GOLD movement ... a closure even for 1 day under 1763 or over 1835 will give the new gold trend for the end of the year
THIS WEEK...just like last year , GOLD remains in the range and continues to force the trend line formed in recent months! even if all the signs almost certainly give rise to a GOLD climb, I will not get out of my routine and will continue to play between 1763-1835 until closing at least for a week outside this area
GREAT ATTENTION:
*This information is not a Financial Advice.
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4H ChartGold regained sharply on the weak US dollar. The US dollar index lost more than 50 pips after US CPI data. The yearly inflation surged by 7%, the highest level since June 1982. Markets eye US PPI data today for further direction.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bearish (Positive for gold)
US dollar index –Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (Negative for gold)
It is good to buy on dips around $1810
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision ))
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Gold Weekly Analysis: It's all about inflation this weekThe US labor market report was one of the most important economic reports last week. IN DECEMBER, the US economy added only 199k jobs where the market forecast was 426K.
The unexpected and negative news about the employment data caused fears that the US economy slowed down. At the same time, rates came out saying that Unemployment and wage rates are better than expectations, but markets reacted to this information with poor liquidity.
The employment figures, in general, are not too negative, especially if we think that they come at the end of the year.
Even though December's numbers were alarming, we should note that this is because of the Corona epidemic, which the United States of America recorded a few months ago.
Gold Market Mover Data For The Week
Fed Chair Powell Testifies
CPI m/m
Core CPI m/m
10-y Bond Auction
PPI m/m
Core PPI m/m
Unemployment Claims
30-y Bond Auction
Core Retail Sales m/m
Retail Sales m/m
Industrial Production m/m
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Even with this data in mind, it would still be premature to say that job growth has stopped or slowed since December 2021.
If job growth continues at its current pace- which seems possible given how vital things seem recent- coverage for the first half of 2022 could quickly occur by late January or early February 2022.
The labor market index, or the number two indicator of importance to the US Federal Reserve, is expected to release its monthly report next Wednesday.
The inflation index will occupy the number one spot on this list because the US Federal Reserve has changed its monetary policy and tendency towards a more stringent approach.
Expectations are that CPI will drop in December at a monthly pace of 0.4% from 0.8%, while Core CPI is also expected to be unchanged at 0.5%.
This news could impact stock prices and the gold market as investors expect it would match or exceed expectations- making it an important event for financial markets this week.
The market is pricing in an opportunity of more than 80%, according to FedWatch's CME Group tool, with a rate hike in March and four rate hikes this year.
This has already been priced in the markets as of this writing. Still, expectations are now rising that US interest rates may increase by four times this year compared to three expectations (in The latest estimates from the US Federal Reserve). These higher numbers will support other movements within the markets.
If FED hints at four rate hikes this year in their monetary policy, GOld may not go up as we expected. Rate hiking mostly depends on inflation reports.
If the inflation rises as expected, the FED will think to hike their rates. As a result, gold will drop. But if we see another drop in inflation, FED may not hike four times their bank rates this year. So, keep in touch with inflation reports.
The markets will also monitor the latest updates of the Omicron variable and the extent of countries' response to confronting the spread, especially after recording record levels in the speed of space and rising cases of anxiety.
The US dollar index is trading at 95.90 this morning, with opening prices being higher by about 0.17% since last week's close, as global stocks and gold prices continue to rise following a surge in returns seen over the previous week.
If the omicron concerns increase, there is no doubt that gold will test $1865 and the next $1900+.
Technical View
Gold is forming a triangle. The channel resistance is identified at the $1820 price zone from the present rates and channel support at the $1780 price zone.
So, as long as the market holds between channel support and channel resistance, the gold is not changing its long-term trends.
Gold was trying to break below the channel support zone several times, but it didn't happen. So gold pulls back after making a fake break out from the support trendline.
In the H4 chart, gold price testing 200 SMA, breaking above 200 SMA, our text target to the upside is $1815/125 price zone. Breaking above $1820/1825, we need inflation reports.
On the other hand, if the CPI report prints positive this week, gold may fall below trendline support and test the $1780 price zone. For breaking below $1780, we need another Hawkish statement from FED or Powell like last week and any hints that the FED will hike rates four times this year.