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THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT In last week’s KOG Report we wanted higher pricing to short again into the lower targets 2665, 2650 and 2620. Unfortunately, we didn’t get the higher level we wanted, so instead, followed Excalibur and the red boxes not only completing the bias targets in one move, but also then completing numerous bearish targets on the week. The bias was bearish below, the price, once settled moved well and allowed us to navigate the short trades and the bounce for the longs. Another good week in Camelot, completing a staggering 25 targets, 8 of those on gold alone. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? For this week we’re only looking for one move, and that’s for the price to attempt the retracement that is needed and stretching out traders. For that reason, we have the lower level of 2550-55 which if attacked and held during the early session may give traders the opportunity to long back up into the 2565-70 region and above that 2600-05 region initially. That’s the trade that we’re looking for early part of the week but please note, breaking below that 2550 level will give us a better opportunity from the 2530-35 region which is also shown on the chart. Nice and simple this week, we’ll update as we usually do. Potential for more ranging on Monday so maybe best to let Monday play and then look for a decent set up for Tuesday onwards. KOG’s bias for the week: Bearish below 2575 with targets below 2555 and below that 2550 Bullish on break of 2575 with targets above 2595 and above that 2605 RED BOXES: Break above 2575 for 2585, 2587, 2595 and 2610 in extension Break below 2560 for 2555, 2551, 2541 and 2535 in extension Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
15M Gold pullback & "Squeeze" and Buy Breakout RSI > 60-65For education purposes guys. One way to trade Gold is on the 15M, 1HR or 4HR and await for a pullback and squeeze-consolidation. But most of the magic is done with 1 indicator only, the RSI stock-standard with 14. You want to see Gold breakout initially for longs past 70 and get really overbought. The reverse for shorts under 30 on the RSI. So we have not bought anything yet. We set an alert or monitor for the RSI on gold to come back to the 50 level or a bit less is okay. But we basically want the RSI to return to about 50 because this is when the squeeze is happening as Gold has a break from momentum until it fires up again. It will fire up again if you have the price action supporting another run and breakout of Gold. Now, we watch as the RSI momentum starts to build up again and we can buy the Gold price once the RSI hits 70 which is very good breakout momentum. I like to buy at 60 on the RSI but either is okay. You sell when the momentum begins to cool again at an RSI level that still exceeds the 70 level for longs. These are usually in and out trades but if the market really opens up for you then stay long gold and good enjoy watching the strategy. Below is the less noisy chart and it's honestly all you need, 1 indicator RSI with setting 14.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
Uptrend or Fadeout? Learn the Key to Catching Market Breakouts1. Recognizing Market Structures: Uptrends and Downtrends Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL): These are signs the market is in an uptrend—prices keep moving up, forming new highs (peaks) and lows (dips) that are higher than the previous ones. Think of it like climbing stairs: each step higher shows the market’s strength. Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL): When prices stop climbing and start forming lower peaks and lower dips, it signals that the market might be slowing down or reversing into a downtrend. In the chart: The first part shows a bullish (upward) move with Higher Highs and Higher Lows. Later, the market shifts to lower highs, signaling a potential slowdown or shift toward a downward move. 2. What Is the LQZ (Liquidity Zone)? Liquidity Zone (LQZ): This is a key price area where a lot of trading activity happens—like a hotspot where buyers and sellers clash. When price reaches such a zone, it either breaks through and keeps moving in that direction (bullish continuation) or bounces back down (rejection). Think of it like a soccer goal line: if the ball crosses the line, the team scores a goal (bullish move); if it’s blocked, the ball goes the other way (bearish move). In the chart: The LQZ is highlighted as the key level to watch. A clean breakout (with more than just a quick spike or wick) signals that buyers are strong enough to push the market higher. If the price gets rejected at this zone, the sellers regain control, and the market might move down. 3. Scenarios: What Happens Next? The chart offers two possible outcomes based on how price behaves near the LQZ. Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above the LQZ and stays there, it’s likely to continue upward towards: Target 1: 2,661.38 Target 2: 2,673.60 These are the next levels where buyers might take profits or where new sellers could appear. Bearish Scenario: If the price gets rejected at the LQZ and drops lower, it could move towards: Bearish Target 1: 2,569.49 Bearish Target 2: 2,546.25 This suggests the sellers have taken control, pushing the market down. 4. How to Know When to Enter a Trade? The chart highlights the importance of waiting for confirmation before jumping into a trade. Here’s a simple trade plan: For a Buy (Long) Trade: Wait until the price breaks above the LQZ and stays above it. Enter on the first pullback (dip) after the breakout—this is often called a flag or retest. For a Sell (Short) Trade: If the price gets rejected at the LQZ, wait for a clear downward movement. Enter after the first lower high forms, confirming that the sellers are in control. Why wait for confirmation? Jumping in too early might cause you to get caught in a false breakout or fake move. Think of it like waiting to see which team scores first before betting on the game. 5. Avoid Emotional Trading and Manage Risk This chart reflects a key lesson: trading is a game of patience and probabilities. If the trade doesn't go as expected, it’s important to step back and wait for the next opportunity. Don’t chase trades just because you fear missing out (FOMO). You might enter too soon and hit your stop loss unnecessarily. Risk Management Tip: Use stop losses to protect your account from big losses. Avoid placing multiple risky trades on the same pair just because you’re impatient. It’s better to wait for high-probability setups. 6. Summary: A Simple Trading Plan Watch the LQZ level: If the price breaks above, look to buy on the next dip. If the price gets rejected, look to sell when it starts forming lower highs. Set Clear Targets: For bullish trades, aim for Target 1 and 2 above. For bearish trades, aim for Bearish Targets 1 and 2 below. Don’t Rush: Wait for clear confirmation before entering. Follow your trading plan and avoid emotional decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Adlercon333
Gold's divergence from lows & a leap back to the high sky today? As I now know that Cryptocurrency has broken upwards & out of its tight ranges, well for now at least as it's a very volatile beast, Crypto, & the whole lot of it; my focus has swapped to Gold and Silver prices and I see that both have upside potential of their own, especially during Tuesday Asian trading when I was watching both at the bottom of their 15m triangle patterns and both ended with dignity taking a leap upwards in price. There are 15M Buy-order blocks that extend down to 2636.30 approximately, but I would not expect price to break-down that much more, given gold's general supremacy and standing in the world at present. The Gold price has pretty much been in a slightly corrective and smallish price-range for the past 4 weeks. I think another leg-up might commence soon.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
Gold May Rise to 2685.00 - 2700.00 (READ DESCRIPTION)Gold May Rise to 2685.00 - 2700.00 Pivot Point: 2665.00 The pivot point of 2665.00 serves as a crucial level for determining market direction. It acts as the line between bullish and bearish sentiments. As long as gold remains above this pivot, the outlook is bullish. Our Preference: Long Positions: Gold is expected to rally, with an upside trend prevailing as long as the price is above 2665.00. Target Levels: Target 1: 2685.00 Target 2: 2700.00 This implies a potential upward movement of about 20 to 35 dollars from the pivot point. Alternative Scenario If gold prices fall below the pivot level of 2665.00: Bearish Outlook: The market may shift to a bearish sentiment, indicating a potential reversal in the upward trend. Target Levels: Target 1: 2656.00 (support level) Target 2: 2645.00 (further downside potential) This suggests that if the price breaks below 2665.00, it could decline further. Technical Indicators Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently bullish, sitting above the neutral 50 level, indicating that the market is likely to continue its upward movement. A reading above 70 would indicate overbought conditions, suggesting caution. Moving Averages: 20-Day Moving Average: Indicates short-term trend direction and is currently above the pivot, supporting bullish sentiment. 50-Day Moving Average: A longer-term trend indicator, also above the pivot, reinforces the bullish outlook. Price Action: The current price is above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which typically indicates a bullish trend. A move below the pivot could signal a trend reversal or increased selling pressure. Volume Analysis: Increased trading volume on upward price movements can confirm the strength of the bullish trend. Conversely, declining volume on price drops could signal weakening selling pressure.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CharivapaAlgo
Entry Types Simplified: The Essential Guide for New Traders!Key Structures and Formations: Ascending Channel: The price has been moving within this channel for a while. An ascending channel indicates an uptrend but also signals that the price is forming higher highs and higher lows, which can later break either direction. Bull Flag: A classic continuation pattern where after a strong bullish move (flagpole), the price consolidated before continuing upwards. This was a great entry point for traders watching for bullish momentum. Failed Flag: It appears there was a bull flag that failed to continue upwards and instead reversed direction. This type of failure is a strong indication for traders to reconsider their long positions or take partial profits. Often when a flag fails, it can lead to an aggressive move in the opposite direction. Zones: 4HR, 1HR, 15M LQZ (Liquidity Zones): These zones mark areas where liquidity is expected to be high, which means these are key levels to watch for price reactions. The 4HR LQZ around 2,622 and the 1HR LQZ around 2,639 are critical areas for price retracement or reversals, particularly in a trending market. Current Price Action: The price is currently hovering near the 15M LQZ (2,655.443), which could act as a short-term support/resistance level. Watching how the price reacts to this zone will provide insight into the next move. If the price continues to drop, the 1HR LQZ around 2,639 may provide support. If that fails, the next likely target is the 4HR LQZ near 2,622. Recommendations Based on Confluence: Check for Multi-Touch Confirmation: If the price interacts with the 4HR or 1HR LQZ zones multiple times and forms a base, this could serve as strong confirmation of a potential reversal or continuation​. Comprehensive Patterns: The failed flag within the larger ascending channel provides a great example of how smaller patterns (failed flag) can give clues about larger moves (channel break)​. Follow the Trinity Rule: As per the Trinity Rule, wait for multiple confirmations across different structures before entering a trade. The liquidity zones and patterns within patterns provide a good basis for this​.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Adlercon333
GOLD H1 Analysis | ShortHello, everyone! I’m excited to share my analysis for today on XAU/USD. As we dive into the market, I see a potential opportunity to go short, and I want to walk you through my thought process. It’s crucial to approach trading with a clear strategy, so let’s break this down together! Market Overview Gold has always been a safe haven asset, and its movements can be influenced by various factors, including economic data releases, geopolitical events, and changes in interest rates. As we analyze the current market conditions, I believe that there’s a compelling case for a short position. Technical Analysis Upon reviewing the latest charts, we’ve identified several key resistance levels that indicate a strong potential for downward movement. Look at the price action over the last few days—there’s been a noticeable rejection at the higher levels, suggesting that sellers are stepping in. Resistance Level: We've observed a solid resistance at , which has held firm against bullish attempts. Support Levels: Watch for potential support around . This can help us manage our risk effectively. Risk Management As we consider entering a short position, risk management is paramount. Remember, no trade is worth compromising your account. Here are some guidelines: Position Sizing: Determine your risk per trade based on your total account balance. A common approach is to risk no more than 1-2% on any single trade. Stop Loss: Set a stop loss just above the resistance level to limit potential losses. Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): Aim for a minimum RRR of 1:2 or 1:3. This means for every dollar you risk, you should target at least two or three dollars in profit. Conclusion In conclusion, while the technical indicators suggest a good opportunity to short XAU/USD, it’s essential to proceed with caution. Always adhere to your trading plan, utilize proper risk management techniques, and maintain discipline. Let’s work together, share insights, and keep each other accountable as we navigate this market. If you have any questions or additional thoughts on this analysis, feel free to share! Happy trading, everyone! 💰📉
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by HouseofProfit
How to Adapt Your Trading Plan to Any Market ConditionDaily Trendline Break and Market Structure The break of the daily trendline suggests potential bearish momentum. However, as the break appears corrective, we must be cautious about interpreting it as a reversal too early. As described in the Trinity Rule, it’s crucial to evaluate whether price is moving impulsively or correctively before deciding​​. The market could be forming an arcing structure, which traps traders on the wrong side before reversing, as mentioned in Pattern Separation​. This aligns with the idea that the market may retest the trendline or break structure in the opposite direction after a fake-out. Lower Timeframe Ascending Channel There is an ascending channel on the lower timeframes, which typically signals continuation of the bullish trend unless there’s a strong breakout to the downside​. This is where the Multi-Touch Confirmation comes in; if we get a third touch on this channel without a break, it could present a strong reversal signal​. However, if the price decisively breaks the ascending channel with strong momentum, the next step would be to look for a flag or corrective structure for an entry into the bearish continuation, as highlighted in Running Channels​. High-Probability Trade Setup Impulse and Correction: As per Entry Types​, a high-probability trade should be executed after the first impulse following a correction. If the price breaks out of the ascending channel, wait for a correction (such as a flag) before entering a short position. You may look for a third touch confirmation to enhance the probability of success​. Risk Management: Don’t rush the entry based solely on the trendline break. Ensure the structure evolves, showing a confirmed breakout, especially on higher timeframes​​. Manage your stop loss based on market structure rather than arbitrary levels. For instance, if the market presents an impulsive move after breaking the channel, your stop could be above the last lower high​. Market Structure and Valid Trades Evolve Structure: Continuously update your structure by considering the most recent touches. This avoids getting caught in outdated setups​. Where Are We in Structure?: Evaluate whether the price is impulsively breaking key levels or showing corrective behavior. If momentum is lacking after the trendline break, the bearish setup may not play out​​. Trade Scenarios Bearish Scenario (Short Setup): Price Breaks the Ascending Channel: If the price breaks with momentum, look for a retest or flag formation to enter short​. Manage Your Position: As the Rule of Three suggests, avoid perfectionism. If the market forms a strong flag or corrective structure, trust the process and adjust your stop as the trade moves in your favor​. Bullish Scenario (Long Setup) : Price Fails to Break the Channel: If the market respects the ascending channel, this could indicate a continuation of the bullish trend. You could enter long after the third touch confirmation or a clear rejection of lower levels​​. Multi-Touch Confirmation: This will be a key factor if the market holds within the channel​. Key Considerations Impulse and Confirmation: Be patient for the first impulse and correction before committing to a trade​​. Stay Neutral: Use running channels and the overall structure to keep a neutral mindset until the market gives a clear signal​. Avoid Perfectionism: Don’t hesitate or wait for the “perfect” setup if multiple confluences align. Stick to your pre-trade checklist to avoid overanalyzing​​.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Adlercon333
XAUUSD Flag Breakout Mastery – 100 Pips in Just Hours!You executed a fantastic trade on XAUUSD, capturing a solid 100 pips in 3.5 hours. However, there were additional techniques you could have employed to potentially capture more of the overall move: Higher Time Frame Confluence: Ensuring the overall trend aligns with the smaller time frame breakout can give you confidence to hold for bigger moves. Trailing Stop Strategy: This could have helped you lock in profits while giving the trade room to continue further. Recognizing Momentum: The impulsive nature of the move post-breakout was an indication to hold the trade longer. Momentum trading often provides an opportunity for a bigger run. Extended Targets: using Fibonacci extensions could have encouraged you to hold for additional profit. Complete Trade Walkthrough 1. Entry Analysis: Pattern Recognition & Confluence: Descending Flag (Bullish): You identified and entered at the top of a descending flag, which is a continuation pattern in a bullish market. The breakout from this flag confirmed the upward momentum, making this a high-probability trade. Confluence Factors: Breakout Confirmation: Price broke through the descending resistance line, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend. Support Zone: The prior lows acted as strong support, providing additional confidence that the price would move higher after the breakout. This was an excellent, well-timed entry based on price structure. You entered right as the market broke out of the flag, aligning with a momentum-based strategy. 2. Price Action (PA) Analysis: Impulse and Correction Structure: Impulse Move: After the breakout, price made an impulsive leg upwards, which you capitalized on. This impulsive move is common following a flag pattern breakout, and the price shot up quickly, reflecting a strong buying pressure. Correction: You entered just before the impulsive leg, after a period of corrective consolidation, which validated your timing. Once price pushed up, there was a brief consolidation before continuing the uptrend. Momentum Continuation: Price made higher highs after your exit, indicating that momentum was still intact. The price action displayed clear continuation signals following the breakout, suggesting that the market was still trending upwards. 3. Trade Management: Time in the Trade: You were in this trade for 3.5 hours, which aligns with the short-term nature of this flag breakout. However, the trade ran further, reaching up to 350 pips. Profit Targeting: Initial Take Profit (100 pips): You wisely took 100 pips as price approached a prior high. However, the fact that price continued upwards suggests that you might have captured more pips using alternative techniques. Exit Consideration: 100 Pips Exit: While exiting at a previous high is logical, the lack of signs of reversal (e.g., no strong bearish candles or rejection at key resistance levels) indicated there was still room for the move to extend. The price continuing upward shows that the bullish momentum was strong, and you could have held on for a larger move. Stop-Loss Placement: You didn’t mention your stop-loss, but if you placed it below the structure of the flag (and adjusted it accordingly), this would have allowed you to reduce risk and hold for a longer run. 4. Potential Improvements: Higher Time Frame Analysis (HTF Confluence): HTF Context: Had you zoomed out to a higher time frame (1H or 4H), you may have seen that the breakout was part of a larger bullish trend, indicating there was potential for the move to continue beyond the 100-pip target. Price Momentum: The momentum post-breakout on smaller time frames was strong. Checking the HTF would have given more confidence that this wasn’t just a short-term spike, but rather part of a more significant trend​​. Trailing Stop Strategy: Trailing Stops: Once your trade was 100 pips in profit, instead of closing the position entirely, you could have moved your stop-loss up to lock in some profits. This way, you could ride the larger move while managing risk. Example: After 100 pips, trail your stop just below the previous consolidation or a key structure (e.g., 50 pips back), allowing the trade to breathe and move further in your favor​​. Extended Profit Targeting: Fibonacci Extensions: By using Fibonacci extensions, you could have projected extended profit targets beyond the initial 100 pips. Typically, a flag breakout can lead to an impulse equal to the size of the flagpole, offering more opportunities to scale out of the trade gradually.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
Triple Your Trade Accuracy with This Simple Trick Like a PROGood Morning Tradingview, Apologies for the delay in my recent posts over the past two days. Unfortunately, this was due to an oversight on my part. I missed a key detail in the trading platform's rules and mistakenly included my watermark on the charts. As a result, several of my posts were removed, and I was temporarily unable to post for 24 hours. I completely understand and respect the platform's guidelines, but I wanted to keep you informed and ensure you're not left wondering about my absence. Here’s a breakdown of potential entry points and trade management based on the chart I've shared, aligned with multi-touch confirmation and The Trinity Rule. We'll focus on how to approach both the bullish and bearish scenarios with structured decision-making: 1. Bullish Scenario (Green Path): The price currently appears to be testing a weekly trendline (third touch), which often signals a potential bullish continuation after the third touch confirms a reversal or trend continuation. Here's how to structure the trade: Entry Point: Wait for a Breakout: If the price breaks and closes above the upper consolidation zone, look for a confirmed breakout with momentum. Avoid entering prematurely, as false breakouts can occur. Confirm with Retest (Higher Probability Entry): After the breakout, wait for a potential retest of the consolidation zone or the top of the ascending wedge. A retest that holds (with rejection wicks or bullish engulfing patterns) adds confirmation for a long position. Reduced Risk Entry: You can enter with a smaller position on the breakout and add to the position on the retest, increasing exposure as the price confirms your bias​​. Stop-Loss Placement: Place the stop-loss just below the consolidation zone or below the retested area. This level serves as your risk threshold, accounting for potential fakeouts. If you are entering after the third touch of the trendline, the stop-loss can be placed below this key level to minimize risk​. Take-Profit Targets: First Target: Aim for the next key resistance zone at around 2,576 based on historical price action. Second Target: If momentum is strong, hold a portion of the trade for a larger move toward 2,592 (upper resistance). Trail the stop as price continues to move upward​. 2. Bearish Scenario (Yellow Path): If the price fails to break above the current consolidation and rejects the trendline, it indicates a potential bearish reversal. The descending path might target the 1-hour liquidity zone around 2,541, where you can expect the price to react. Entry Point: Breakout of Consolidation: If the price breaks below the consolidation, this signals a bearish continuation. Enter on a confirmed breakout, with a strong bearish candle close below support. Aggressive Entry: You may consider entering on the third rejection at the top of the consolidation, especially if there's a clear bearish reversal pattern (e.g., shooting star or bearish engulfing)​​. Reduced Risk Entry: Wait for the price to break below the consolidation and enter on a retest of the broken support, confirming the bearish momentum. This provides a lower-risk entry with better confirmation​. Stop-Loss Placement: Above the consolidation or the most recent swing high where rejection occurred, giving enough room for market fluctuations. Ensure that the stop isn’t too tight, as you could get caught in price noise​. Take-Profit Targets: First Target: The 15-minute liquidity zone around 2,560 is a reasonable first target, where you may partially close your position. Final Target: The key 1-hour liquidity zone at 2,541 is the more substantial target for a full bearish continuation. Be mindful of how price reacts near this zone; you may want to take profits before a reversal happens​​. Management Tips: Scaling In and Out: Whether bullish or bearish, consider splitting your position into smaller entries. This allows you to enter part of the trade with confirmation and add more as price action continues in your favor. Use of Flags for Re-entries: After the initial breakout in either direction, look for flags or continuation patterns to re-enter the trade or add to an existing position. For example, after a bullish breakout, wait for a flag and enter on the next wave up​​. Regular Monitoring and Adjustments: As the price moves in your favor, trail your stop-loss to lock in profits. This is especially important during strong momentum moves to avoid giving back profits to the market. Psychological Considerations: Avoid FOMO: Don’t rush into trades if you're unsure about the breakout or failure of a level. Let the price action confirm your bias. Avoid Overtrading: Stick to your Rule of Three guidelines. Ensure at least three confirming factors align with your analysis before entering​.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Adlercon333