Gold: How long can Gold go down?" Let's buy Gold now. I cannot drop more"...Are you sure?
Let's take a look at the fundamentals and technicals:
We will continue with our latest chart.
Fundamentally:
The Market needs a catalyst to reverse the current trend. It is not realistic to be bullish on gold in the near term as the U.S. dollar and equity markets continue to dominate investor interest. Additionally, there is no physical demand for Gold. The U.S. dollar is unlikely to fall back because of growing trade tensions and further interest-rates hikes. DXY is above 95 and if it breaks above 95.50, a new scenario will begin.( You can check the attached DXY analysis) Under these circumstances, we do not think that Gold will have a sustainable recovery.
When can this environment change for Gold Market? The growing concern regarding U.S. economic growth in the second half of the year and ongoing global trade tensions rising could be the catalysts needed to reverse gold’s trend. But not now. Not in near term.
Technically:
All timeframes and indicators are bearish. As we have mentioned in our previous forecast, Gold tested 1204 and pulled back after US NFP. The Fractal Channel upper line tested. And Gold ended the week at 1213.
Our prediction is 1204 and 1198 will be tested in this environment.1180 can be the logical level to buy Gold. ( depending on the DXY )
We will just copy/paste from our latest analysis:
1204 and 1198 are the key levels. The problem will start if Gold 0.49% prices break below 1198. Fibonacci 61.8% of the latest Bullish Move – Nov 2105 Jul 2016 – will be the decision level: 1187 USD.
Key Levels on the SMALLER chart timeframes:
Downside: 1204 1198 1187
Upside: 1218 1234 1257
We will update for the members if we see any change in the picture.
You can read our previous Gold analysis to get a better idea.
Goldtechnicalanalysis
XAUUSD Gold Forecast And Key LevelsGold Forecast – Fundamentals :
Gold is trying to find support after hitting a six-month low earlier last week, most of the market players were waiting for the reawakening of the metals’ safe-haven appeal amid a complacent market in the face of trade war fears.
However, we did not see a remarkable upside price movements. There are some significant reasons for this. Strong U.S. dollar, hawkish Federal Reserve, market complacency, and gold acting like a raw commodity.
Only if any further development in the trade war rhetoric hurts the U.S. dollar, gold prices will finally be able to surge past the $1,300.
Technically:
XAUUSD ended the week at $ 1.269. As seen in the Daily Chart, EMA 50,100,200 forming Golden Cross…Strong bearish signal…
The midterm trend line is broken as well. If, tomorrow, Gold makes an upside movement and close above the trendline – somewhere 1.280 – this can be considered as a false break out. Otherwise, we likely to see the prices testing 1.250 – 1.240 region.
Key Levels for Monday:
H4 Chart Timeframe:
Upside: The first level is 1274. Break out and close above 1.274 may carry the price 1.281 where is the Midterm Major Resistance. We may start to talk about a midterm trend reversal after the Gold makes a few H4 closing above 1.281.
Downside: 1.265 – Pivot, 2/8 MM-, 1.261, 1.257 and 1.250.
We will publish our intraday trade idea for premium members later tomorrow.
XAUUSD Gold Forecast: Dare to trade Gold this week?Would you dare to trade on Gold this week?
After months of speculations, Gala Night is almost here and we finally will be able to see if it’s a Horror Movie or Comedy for Gold investors.
The producer and the director of the movie are FED and the leading actor is Gold.
Gold trades in its narrowest range since 2012. Geopolitical uncertainty is providing critical support while the threat of rising interest rates weighs on prices.
Market players agree that interest rates are moving higher this week. Markets see a 25-basis-point hike as all but guaranteed. The question that has sidelined gold investors has been the number of interest-rate hikes for the rest of the year. Investors are anxious to see how hawkish the central bank will be.
And the general opinion is : “Inflation is running high enough that the Fed will not be dovish. It’s now a question of how hawkish they will be”
The tone of FED statement will be the leading factor in the direction of the Gold Prices.
Better to look at the bigger picture first.
Gold ended the week at 1313, testing support within its recent trading channel.
What the Daily Chart is telling us:
The main trend is still bullish.
Price is testing the channel support. EMA 100 and EMA 200 are below the price. Breaking below EMA 100 may lead the price EMA 200 support at 1296 – the lower band of the ascending channel.
1281 support must be broken in order to speak about a trend reversal.
1328 is still the important resistance and Gold needs to make a few Daily closings above 1328 to continue its bullish move.
Let us take a look at 4 Hours Chart.
Descending channel. Price is below all main EMAs. BEARISH!!
A triangle? Probably.
1.308 and 1303 are the intraday supports.
Breaking below 1304 would lead the prices 1296 “Historical Support”
Our Gold trading strategy will be :
As a longterm trader:
The trend is still bullish and if the price remains above 1296; we will continue to buy GOLD.
Levels to buy:
By the pullback to 1296 – Stop Loss 1269, Target 1356 –
By the breakout of 1328 – Stop Loss 1269, Target 1408 –
Levels to sell: Daily closing below 1296 Target 1270 and 1254
As a Daytrader:
Sell break below 1308 – Target 1303, 1296
Buy break above 1320 – Target 1328 and add long above 1328 –
DISCLAIMER: This is a technical analysis study, not an advice or recommendation to invest money on.
SORRY FOR THE LONG IDEA.MIGHT BE BORING TO READ!!
XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaXAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis And Trade Idea
Fundamentals by Reuters:
Gold prices held steady on Tuesday, buoyed by a weaker dollar as investors waited for inflation data for clues on the pace of U.S. interest rate hikes.
Fundamentals:
Spot gold was mostly unchanged at $1,322 an ounce, as of 0102 GMT. On Monday, it rose 0.5 percent in its biggest one-day percentage gain in more than a week.
U.S. gold futures were down 0.1 percent at $1,324.6 per ounce.
Asian stocks pulled further away from two-month lows on Tuesday, lifted by Wall Street’s extended rebound from last week’s steep fall.
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday, with benchmark 10-year yields hitting a four-year high and those on 30-year bonds climbing to an 11-month peak, as a stock rally and improving risk appetite diminished the safe-haven appeal of government debt.
XAUUSD Gold Technicals Analysis:
Gold is trading 1325 as of writing.
The trend and the technical indicators are Bullish on the smaller chart timeframes.
XAUUSD is still below EMA 50 in the H4 chart. RSI is bullish and headed North.
1328 USD is the first target of the Gold. This level is the first important resistance.
Gold will gain strength with the breakout of 1328 and the trend line.
Today’s target levels are 1.332 and 1335.
1335 is an important resistance – MA 100 resistance- and closing above 1335 will take price to 1343 and 1351.
Our Trade Idea :
Buy Gold @ 1325, Stop Loss 1.318, Take Profit: 1.351.
BUTTERFLY BULL ON H1, H2 & H4 |HARMONIC + FUNDAMENTALS + TECHThis butterfly pattern seats in a pretty comfortable support and resistance zone with a somewhat visible ascending head and shoulder formation. So I have picked my entry points as you can see but remember to watch the fundamentals.
Here are the fundamental factors to keep in mind on Gold:
-Australian ANZ Job Advertisements
-Australian TD Securities Inflation
-Australian Inventories and Company Operating Profits
-Japanese Consumer Confidence
-US Factory Orders
-UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI
-Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence
-Eurozone PPI
Good Luck