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Goldtoday
Gold Price Analysis. August 2024.
Today, gold is trading near the upper boundary of its ascending channel. Traditionally, this level acts as a critical resistance point, and most oscillators would suggest the market is overbought, signaling a potential selling opportunity.
However, the situation may be more complex than it appears.
Above the current price, two significant levels loom: the historical high and the psychologically important $2,500 per ounce mark. From a market behavior perspective, which often seems designed to lead retail traders astray, it would not be surprising to see a false bullish breakout above these levels. Such a move could trigger FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) buying among investors and force sellers to close their positions via stop-loss orders.
This scenario could be exacerbated by a spike in volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions or today’s critical U.S. inflation data (with further significant reports expected tomorrow).
Cycle Analysis by Fintechzoom
An overlay of active gold price cycles presents a projection line (shown in red), indicating a potential peak on Friday, followed by a downturn.
Given this outlook, it would not be surprising if we witness an attempt to breach the historical high within the next 10 days.
Gold Price Forecasts
Analysts, including those from Commerzbank, suggest that a new record high for gold is likely, as inflation data could provide additional momentum.
Strategists at JPMorgan have set a year-end target of $2,500 for gold in 2024.
XAUUSD (GOLD) I Technical and Fundamental Outlook Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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XAUUSD - possible BuyNow everything is Going well for Gold. No matter there is uncertainty or War or interest rate decisions, Gold is likely to touch higher targets. as I mentioned on my BTC analysis, Today's Core PCE can be the Final Fuel for market to start their final rally in 2023.
XAUUSD:19/1 Today Analysis and StrategyGold technical chart daily pressure is 2040, with support below 2000-1966
The four-hour pressure is 2032, and the lower support is 2000-1980
One-hour pressure is 2032, support below is 2012-2000
Operational suggestions: Judging from the daily analysis, today's upper resistance continues to focus on the vicinity of 2025-2032. Counterattacks during the day rely on this position to continue to be short and then look at the downward trend. The lower target continues to focus on breaking the bottom. The short-term short-term dividing line moves down to 2032, until the daily level breaks through and reaches this position, continue to maintain the priority short selling rhythm.
SELL:near 2032
SELL:near 2000
BUY: around 2000
XAUUSD Shorts from 2050.000 down towards 1990.000This week's perspective on gold is quite interesting, considering the recent break to the downside. The current retracement, triggered by a reaction from an imbalance, has my attention focused on the 22-hour supply zone. This particular zone played a significant role in causing the downward break.
Given that price has cleared liquidity from its all-time highs, there's potential for a continued downtrend. Therefore, I'm patiently waiting for a Wyckoff distribution to unfold within the 22-hour supply zone. The goal is to capture selling opportunities, anticipating a move back down towards a robust daily demand zone where I expect a bullish reaction to occur.
Confluences for gold Sells are as follows:
- Price has recently broken structure to the downside on the higher time frame.
- ATHs of the chart got swept, enough liquidity to generate a bearish trend.
- Theres still imbalances below to fill as well as a daily demand that needs mitigating.
- Price formed a clean 22hr supply zone that has caused this BOS to happen and in the 0.78 fib range.
- Even if price wants to maintain a bullish trend it must come down to mitigate a demand.
- Sentiment analysis also suggests gold to be bearish.
P.S. While I'm currently bearish, there's a possibility that this could unfold as a temporary move toward a more favourable demand zone. This scenario might set the stage for a continuation of the bullish trend on the higher time frame. However, my immediate focus is on seeking selling opportunities to drive the price back down.
Have a great trading week ahead and let's catch some pips!
Gold Futures [GC1] - ShortGold has been trading lower consecutively for the past 3 days. We are expecting one more push to the downside during the NY session.
The trade is supported by HTF bias as bearish. Currently we have a decent retracement already above 50% since the last liquidity grab which is placing our trade in Premium range.
Entry: 2017-2022
SL: Determine once we have a valid entry trigger.
TP: Open
Goodluck!
Gold price bounces off, downside remains bets easeHere is what you need to know on Thursday, January 18:
Technical Analysis: Gold price finds a temporary support near $2,000
Gold price attempts a firm-footing near psychological support at $2,000 amid a nominal decline in the US Dollar Index. The near-term demand for the precious metal has turned bearish as it has slipped below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $2,017. The higher-high-higher-low formation in the Gold price is over and market participants could utilize pullbacks for building fresh shorts.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to near 40.00. If the RSI fails to sustain above 40.00 levels, a bearish momentum will get triggered.
•Gold price discovers bets near $2,000 but remains on backfoot amid easing Fed rate cut hopes.
•Stubborn US inflation and robust Retail Sales data favour a maintenance of hawkish interest rate stance.
•Market participants will focus on Fed Bostic’s commentary ahead.
Gold price (XAU/USD) has executed a short-term recovery move in the midst of a persistent downtrend. Gold price printed a fresh monthly low near the psychological support of $2,000 on Wednesday, then bounced.
Yet despite the rebound, the precious metal remains on the backfoot as investors continue to worry about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start its long awaited rate-cut cycle. The hopes of an early rate-cut decision from the Fed are easing as the last leg of inflationary pressures in the United States is turning out significantly more stubborn than previously thought, due to robust consumer spending and steady labor market conditions.
Amid an absence of front-line economic indicators, market participants are expected to shift focus towards the first monetary policy meeting of the Fed, which is scheduled for January 31. The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25-5.50%. Investors will keenly focus on how the Fed proposes to make three rate cuts of 25 basis points (bps) each in 2024, as projected in the December monetary policy meeting.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price finds an interim support as US Dollar corrects
•Gold price discovers an intermediate support near the psychological $2,000 level after an intense sell-off.
•The near-term demand is still downbeat as uncertainty about an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in March has deepened.
•Trades have pared bets supporting a rate cut in March due to resilience in the US economy.
•Bets supporting an interest rate cut of 25-basis points (bps) have increased slightly to 61% but are still below the 75% recorded last week, as per the CME Fedwatch tool.
•Market expectations for early cuts from the Fed have been pushed back as price pressures in the US economy remained stubborn and consumer spending grew strongly in December.
•Upbeat economic indicators have provided room to Fed policymakers to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for a longer period than that anticipated by market participants before their release.
•This week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank should not rush taking interest rates down as more evidence is needed to ensure that price pressures are returning to 2% in a sustainable manner.
•Christopher Waller advised that the Fed should reduce interest rates “carefully and methodically”, considering resilience in the US economy.
•Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded after a gradual correction to near 103.20, supported by risk-off market sentiment. 10-year US Treasury yields are maintaining a firm-footing above 4%.
•Later the day, investors will focus on the weekly jobless claims for the week ending December 12 and commentary from Federal Reserve of Atlanta Bank President Raphael Bostic.
•Bostic is expected to maintain a hawkish argument considering stubbornly higher price pressures.
•On Monday, Fed’s Bostic commented that progress in inflation declining towards 2% could slow if policymakers cut interest rates soon.
XAUUSD:17/1 Today’s Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical chart daily pressure is 2040, with support below 2000
Four-hour pressure 2040, lower support 2020
One-hour pressure is 2032, support below is 2020-2000
✅Operational advice: Yesterday, gold fell all the way and continued to weaken. Today we will first break through the 2,000 integer mark, then look below the 1966 mark, and go short on rallies.
SELL:near 2030
SELL:near 2000
BUY: around 1966 (target this week)
You don’t necessarily trade according to the points I mentioned, technical analysis only provides trading direction!
Gold plunges as investors await fresh cues about Fed rate cutsGold price has been hit hard amid uncertainty over US Retail Sales and Industrial Production data.
A strong US Retail Sales data would provide more room for the Fed to maintain higher interest rates.
•Further escalation in Middle East tensions could bring some revival in the gold price.
Gold price (XAU/USD) witnesses a sell-off after failing to reclaim the weekly high above $2,060. The precious metal drops as investors reconsider the timeframe in which the Federal Reserve (Fed) may reduce interest rates. This comes after the release of the sticky Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for December, as well as hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials recalibrating broader market expectations.
While markets continue to lean towards a rate cut decision in March, policymakers are in no hurry to endorse a dovish stance on interest rates. The consumer price inflation in the United States economy is almost double the required rate of 2%, labor demand is steady and the chances of a recession are low despite interest rates remaining in the range of 5.25-5.50%. This would allow Fed policymakers to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for the time being.
Going forward, monthly US Retail Sales, the Industrial Production data and the Fed's Beige Book are expected to provide fresh cues about the interest rate outlook.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price falls sharply as US Dollar, yields recover
Gold price corrects to near the crucial support of $2,040 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered sharply ahead of crucial United States economic data for December.
A strong run-up in the precious metal that was propelled by firm bets in favor of early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and deepening Middle East tensions, has stalled for now.
• As per the CME Fedwatch tool, chances in favor of an interest rate cut in March have eased nominally to 66% against 70% recorded earlier.
A gradual decline has come as investors are reconsidering strong optimism for Fed starting the rate-cut cycle from March after getting mixed cues from stubbornly higher headline consumer price inflation and softer factory gate price data.
Investors would get more cues about when the Fed could plan rate cuts after the release of the monthly US Retail Sales and Industrial Producer data, which are due to be released on Wednesday.
• Retail Sales are expected to have grown at a higher pace of 0.4% against 0.3% increase in November. Consumer spending excluding automobiles is estimated to have grown at a steady pace of 0.2%.
• The Industrial Production data is seen stagnant against 0.2% growth in November on a monthly basis.
Upbeat economic data would comfort Fed policymakers for maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance while a soft report will firm the case of rate cuts in March.
• Before that, commentary from Fed Governor Christopher Waller will be keenly watched by market participants. Investors are eager to know how the Fed is considering the timeframe for the rate-cut cycle after the release of sticky consumer price inflation data.
• The appeal for the gold price has not been impacted on a broader basis as crises in the Middle East region have deepened after the airstrikes from the US and the United Kingdom.
Iran-backed Houthi rebels have threatened to retaliate for attacking groups in Yemen, which will keep risk sentiment on its toes.
• The US Dollar Index has broken to a new high slightly above 103.00 as investors hope that other central banks will also start reducing interest rates earlier than previously projected. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield has rebounded swiftly above 4.0%.
Technical Analysis: Gold price corrects to near 20-day EMA
Gold price has faced a sharp sell-off after failing to recapture the weekly high of $2,062. The precious metal has dropped to near $2,040 and is expected to remain on tenterhooks before getting fresh cues about the timing of rate cuts from the Fed. The yellow metal has surrendered entire gains generated on Monday and has corrected to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $2,039.
More downside could appear in the gold price if it fails to defend the January 3 low of $2,030, which will expose it towards the psychological support of $2,000.
XAUUSD:12/1 Today Analysis and StrategyGold technical chart daily pressure 2040-2053, lower support 2000
Four-hour pressure 2040, lower support 2020-2016
One-hour pressure is 2040, support below is 2031-2000
Operational suggestions: From the daily analysis, we continue to focus on the recent 2040 first-line short-term suppression at the top, and the support at 2020-2000 at the bottom. The short-cycle gold price has entered a weak and volatile consolidation trend. Before the market is stimulated by big news, continue to Keep the suppressed bearish pattern unchanged
SELL:near 2053
SELL:near 2040
BUY:near 2020
BUY:near 2000
XAUUSD: 10/1 Today’s Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical chart daily pressure 2040-2053, lower support 2000
The four-hour pressure is 2040, and the lower support is 2016
One-hour pressure is 2040, support below is 2016
✅Operational suggestions: Gold has now physically broken through the 2040 mark. Today’s rebound near 2040 will be the main target for shorting, first look at the 2020 mark. If the strength is strong, continue to look at the 2000-1966 mark. The first small resistance above is currently the 2031 mark, followed by the 2040 mark. It is the entry price of short order
SELL:near 2053
SELL:near 2040
SELL:near 2032
You don’t necessarily trade according to the points I mentioned, technical analysis only provides trading direction!
traders await US CPI on ThursdayGold price remains confined in a narrow range as traders await US CPI on Thursday
10 January 2024
• Gold price extends its consolidative price move above a multi-week low touched on Monday.
•The Fed rate cut uncertainty is holding back traders from placing aggressive directional bets.
• Elevated US bond yields underpin the USD and cap gains ahead of the US CPI on Thursday.
Technical Analysis: Gold price bears await a break below the 50-day SMA support near $2,017 area
From a technical perspective, the multi-week low, around the $2,017 area touched on Monday, which now coincides with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), should protect the immediate downside. A convincing break below could make the gold price vulnerable to accelerate the slide towards the $2,000 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling will expose the December swing low, around the $1,973 region, before the XAU/USD eventually drops to the $1,965-1,963 confluence, comprising the 100- and 200-day SMAs.
On the flip side, the $2,040-2,042 zone might continue to act as an immediate strong barrier, above which the Gold price could aim to retest Friday's swing high, around the $2,064 area. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $2,077 area, which if cleared decisively will negate any near-term negative outlook and set the stage for a move towards reclaiming the $2,100 round figure.
Gold price (XAU/USD) met with some supply following an uptick to the $2,040 area on Tuesday and finally settled with only modest gains on Tuesday. The precious metal continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Wednesday as traders seek more clarity on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut path before placing directional bets. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the release of the latest consumer inflation figures from the United States (US) due on Thursday, which will play a key role in determining the near-term trajectory for the commodity.
Ahead of the key data risk, investors have been scaling back their expectations for a more aggressive policy easing by the Fed in the wake of a robust December US jobs report on Friday, which pointed to a still-resilient labor market. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and acts as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD), capping the non-yielding Gold price. That said, geopolitical risks stemming from the Israel-Hamas war and persistent worries over a slow economic recovery in China – the world's second-largest economy – should lend some support to the safe-haven precious metal.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price struggles for a firm direction amid mixed fundamental cues
• The uncertainty over the timing of when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates holds back traders from placing fresh directional bets around the gold price.
The New York Fed reported on Monday that US consumers' projection of inflation fell to the lowest level in nearly three years in December, raising bets for an imminent shift in the Fed's policy stance.
Meanwhile, the resilient US economy, which is experiencing above-target inflation, gives the US central bank more headroom to keep interest rates higher for longer.
• This allows the yield in the benchmark 10-year US government bond to hold above the 4.0% threshold, which lends support to the US Dollar and caps the yellow metal.
Bearish traders, however, seem reluctant and prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the latest US consumer inflation figures, due for release on Thursday.
Citing a senior US Defense Department official, CNBC reported late Tuesday that Iran-backed Houthi militants launched the largest attack to date on commercial merchant vessels.
A senior People's Bank of China official said this Wednesday that the central bank may use monetary policy tools to provide strong support for reasonable credit growth.
The official added that the PBoC will strengthen its counter-cyclical and cross-cycle policy adjustments to create favorable conditions for the country's economic growth.
• There isn't any relevant market-moving macro data scheduled for release from the US on Wednesday, leaving the XAU/USD at the mercy of the USD price dynamics.
XAU/USD holds gains amid risk aversion and falling yields Technical outlook
Gold’s daily chart portrays the yellow metal upward bias after finding support at the 50-day moving average (DMA) tested Monday, with the level rejecting lower prices. This is despite posting losses of almost 1% yesterday. Although buyers have regained some control, downside risks remain if XAU/USD slides below today’s low of $2026, opening the door to challenge the 50-DMA at $2014, ahead of testing the $2000 figure. On the flip side, the XAU/USD first resistance would be $2050, followed by the January 5 daily high at $2063.98.
•US economic data shows improved small business sentiment and a narrowing trade deficit, impacting gold dynamics.
•Investors await US CPI data for further direction, with Gold's movement likely influenced by inflation expectations.
Gold price clings to decent gains above 0.15% during the mid-North American session on Tuesday, amid risk aversion, alongside overall US Dollar (USD) strength across the board. US Treasury bond yields had erased their previous gains, a tailwind for the yellow metal, which has an inverted correlation, particularly with the 10-year benchmark note yield. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $2030 after hitting a daily low of $2026.17.
XAU/USD rises, although US bond yields are dropping
Risk aversion is the name of the game; although it is boosting Gold’s price, the Greenback is gaining some ground against the non-yielding metal. The economic calendar in the United States was scarce, though it revealed the NFIB Business Optimism Survey for December, which showed small business sentiment improved for the first time in five months, though it remains below its 50-year average of 98, came at 91.90.
The US Department of Commerce announced that the US trade deficit narrowed as the Trade Balance for November came at $-63.2 billion, less than estimates of $-65 billion and October’s $-64.5 billion.
That sponsored XAU/USD’s leg up toward its daily high of $2042.01 before retreating toward current spot prices. Although US Treasury bond yields remain depressed, the Greenback posted solid gains, as shown by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, a basket of six currencies vs. the US Dollar, climbs 0.20% at 102.49.
Meanwhile, Gold’s price action is expected to remain constrained as traders brace for December’s inflation data in the United States. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to tick up by 3.3% YoY, while the core is expected at 3.8% YoY, lower than the previous reading.
XAUUSD: 9/1 Today Analysis and StrategyGold technical chart daily pressure is 2040-2053, with support below 2000
Four-hour pressure is 2040, support below is 2031
One-hour pressure is 2040, support below is 2031-2024
Operational advice: Gold has now broken through the 2040 mark, and today’s rebound will mainly be short selling.
XAUUSD non-agricultural market forecast
Today I think gold prices will recover, and on the H4 time frame, it is still showing a downward trend, with two important key levels: 2058-2060 and 2077-2079. I think gold is likely to rise during the Asian and European hours. Thereafter, non-farm payrolls news during the U.S. session may cause gold prices to fall.
So, my strategy for today is:
Waiting to buy area: 2038-2041
Area for sale 2058-2065 or 2077-2079
XAUUSD: 2/1 Today Analysis and StrategyGold technical chart daily line upper pressure 2088 and lower support 2053-2040
In four hours, the upper pressure is 2069-2088 and the lower support is 2066.
One hour upper pressure 2073-2080 lower support 2066
Operation suggestions:
Gold is currently consolidating in a range. As shown in the figure above, go long above 2069 and short below 2066.
Long order: long near 2069
Long order: long around 2040
Short order: short around 2065
You don’t necessarily trade according to the points I mentioned, technical analysis only provides trading direction!
XAUUSD:3/1 Today’s Strategy and AnalysisGold technical chart daily pressure is 2088, support below is 2053-2040
Four-hour pressure 2069-2088, support below 2053-5040
One-hour pressure 2069-2073, support below 2053-2066
Operation suggestion: Today, focus on 2053/2040 below. Try to go long at this position. If the 2040 mark is broken, the short trend will start. Just continue to go long above the 2066 mark above.
BUY:2066 near
BUY:2040 near
SELL:2065 near
Wednesday: Operation between 2055~2075Gold adjusted and closed again with a small negative structure, and the U.S. index continued to rise. Gold and silver rebounded high. Gold fluctuated widely yesterday and rose sharply during the day. The European and American markets formed a surge and fell back to adjust downward and penetrated 2060 in late trading and fell to a low near 2055. The daily line closed continuously negative and tested the MA10 daily moving average support close to the 53 line. The short-cycle four-hour chart and hour The price in the chart is running in the middle and lower rails of the Bollinger Bands. The central axis of the RSI indicator is below the 50 value. The moving average system maintains its opening downward. The MA10 is suppressing 2066 on the 10th. The US index continues to rise strongly and maintains a strong closing. The daily line is positive, which has a certain impact on gold and silver. suppress. Gold trading today is mainly selling at high prices, followed by buying at low prices.
Yesterday's gold market trend was consistent with my prediction. It fluctuated within the range, with 2075 short and 2070 short respectively. It fell as expected and profited! Now that the market has fallen to the support below, it’s time to start going long! Rely on the support of 2055 to go long in early trading!
Looking at gold in 4 hours, the general direction of the shock trend after the rise remains unchanged is the bullish trend! The watershed between long and short is the 2050 position. Only when it truly falls below 2050 will the downtrend begin! Now the market continues to fluctuate within the range of 2055-2075. It is now exactly the 4-hour Bollinger lower track support position, and there is a rebound expectation! Gold relies on the support of 2055 to go long, and the top continues to pay attention to the pressure of 2075! For the time being, sell high and buy low within the range!
Complete signal 👇
Monday: Gold operates in the range of 2050~2080Gold is now supported by its decline, and there is demand for a rebound. The Asian market rose by $14! From the trend point of view, gold is now undergoing a shock adjustment trend after a sharp rise. It is expected to maintain a shock within the range of 2050-2080. The direction will be chosen after the shock is over! The current operation is to sell high and buy low!
Gold's decline has now found support at the 2055 line. The upper pressure is the hourly upper rail and the rebound pressure at 2073. The upper level is suppressed by 2081. It is expected that it will test the 2050 line again after encountering resistance!
Latest analysis of US market, 2070/2064 supportOn Thursday (December 28), the market insisted that the Federal Reserve would not relax its expectations of a faster interest rate cut. The U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields were further put under pressure. Gold rebounded and once touched $2,088, approaching the 2,100 mark. Gold prices climbed to more than three-week highs on Thursday as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields hit multi-month lows as bets grew that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rates as early as March next year.
Technical aspect: On the daily line, the market volatility on the previous trading day was relatively small, and the small positive line closed, indicating that the short-term gold price is relatively strong. In terms of indicators, the market is still running above the 20-day moving average, and bulls still have the upper hand.
The market outlook will focus on the first-line pressure of $2,088 at the top, and the first-line support at $2070/2064 at the bottom.
Gold’s correction is still an opportunity to go long
Gold's retracement did not fall below the key support of 2070, but the bulls remain unchanged. The pullback is still an opportunity to cover long positions! The current price of 2075 is directly higher, and the US market continues to be bullish!
From the trend point of view, gold is still on an upward trend. The current pullback is exactly the support position of the 1-hour Bollinger Band, which is also the support position to start rising again. The US market will at least once again attack the 2100 mark!
In the trending market, every correction is an opportunity to go long. Don’t miss the opportunity before it comes back. The current price is 2075, which is directly long! The U.S. market will surely pull up again in a straight line!
specific strategies
Gold is over 2075, stop loss is 2068, target is 2090.
If you have better suggestions, please leave a message and tell me
28. The rising demand for gold is obviousOn Wednesday (December 27) in Asia, the Bank of Japan released a summary of the opinions of the review committee of the December monetary policy meeting, emphasizing that it is too early to raise interest rates and that the end of negative interest rates must first bring the price target within sight. The U.S. Defense Secretary confirmed that the U.S. military carried out air strikes in Iraq, which resulted in the death of at least one person. Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) said a container ship was attacked while transiting the Red Sea. Spot gold once approached the $2,070 mark, and then remained bullish at $2,064.
Gold prices rose, breaking out of a trading range that had been in place for much of December after weak U.S. inflation data fueled more bets on early interest rate cuts in 2024. Gold has rallied sharply in recent sessions as the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, fell short of expectations.
Inflation data released after the Federal Reserve sent a dovish signal at its last meeting in 2023 raised hopes that the central bank could start cutting interest rates as early as March 2024. This view creates a strong outlook for gold, given that high interest rates drive up the opportunity cost of investing in gold. International gold is also likely to benefit from worsening global economic conditions in the coming year as major economies feel the impact of tightening monetary policies.
There is now clear upside demand for gold, so the risk of going long gold is less than going short
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