GOLD ( XAUUSD ) Long Term Buying Trading IdeaHello Traders
In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
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Gold price today October 12: Soared again after PPI reportThe PPI index will be an indicator of the price sold to consumers in person (Consumer CPI index) will also increase accordingly. This will work strongly to determine interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Tonight (December 10), the US will announce the CPI index. Experts say that if the CPI index also increases, at the upcoming meeting in early November, the Fed will increase the basic productivity point by 0.25%. emission mechanism is moving towards the 2% target.
Normally, when the Fed predicts an interest rate increase, gold prices will decline. However, this time the price of gold has increased sharply. Introducing that, if the Fed continues to raise interest rates, there will be increased risk to the US economy.
Rising inflation will also cause people to tighten spending, which in turn may cause businesses to shrink production. Therefore, the US economy may fall into recession but not have a "soft landing" as predicted. With the above analysis, investors have returned to buying gold, attacking the risk of capital flows.
GOLD for my correct predictions yesterday There has been little change in the market since the minutes of the Fed's monetary policy meeting were released in September. This highlighted concerns about U.S. economic growth and caused the Fed to become cautious about raising interest rates.
Dallas Fed President Rory Logan and Fed Director Christopher Waller have argued that rising U.S. Treasury yields in recent months could prompt the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates. Waller said on October 11 that higher market interest rates could help the Fed control inflation and allow policymakers to consider whether further rate hikes are necessary.
"Overall, the minutes indicate that Fed officials are increasingly concerned about recession risks to the U.S. economy," said Carl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Kopay in Toronto.
The recent weakness in the US dollar is due to a decline in US Treasury yields, with bond prices rising due to the Fed's "loose" stance on future interest rate hikes. Investors are now awaiting the release of the main inflation report today, October 12th, for further guidance on the future direction of interest rates. Additionally, the market is closely monitoring the conflict between Israel and the Islamic organization Hamas.
Conversely, the euro rose to $1.0634, its highest level since September 25th. Meanwhile, the pound rose to a three-week high of $1.2337.
Dutch central bank board member Klaas Nott said on October 11 that the ECB has made "important progress" in bringing inflation down to its target level, but there is still a long way to go and rules out the possibility of inflation rising. He said he could not. Interest rates may rise further in the future.
Trading strategies that are sure to make moneyDue to the dovish remarks of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical conflicts, gold rose further. After hitting a low of around 1853 overnight, it rebounded again and has now reached a high of around 1870. According to the current structural trend of gold, if gold breaks the $10 fluctuation range in the past two days, gold may maintain its upward trend for the time being. The initial pressure above is in the 1878-1880 area, while the first support below is in the 1861-1859 area, followed by the 1856-1854 area.
Therefore, for gold trading, stable friends can wait for gold to fall back and then go long gold based on the relative support level. Friends with aggressive trading styles can participate in a short-term short-selling opportunity after gold touches the 1878-1880 area.
In fact, as long as you grasp the rhythm, it is easy to profit from gold trading. If you don't know the accurate trading rhythm, you can follow my trading ideas. I post my trading ideas every day and I also post free trading signals on a regular basis. Many friends have given feedback that it is very helpful. If you want to learn market trading logic, or you want clear trading signals and get more profits, I can satisfy you. Be sure to follow the bottom of the article to view the details!
GOLD 4H OUTLOOK GOLD
reminding you that, consolidation under 1873 is important to achieve the suggested targets as breaching it will push the price to build a bearish wave to reach 1860 , 1850, and 1838
As for renewing bullish attempts, consolidation above 1873 will support the price to rise up again and recover its positive momentum to retest again to 1886 , 1896 , and 1911
Support line: 1860, 1850, 1838
Resistance line: 1886 , 1896 , 1911
From the Gold Rush to the 10% Golden Crash next?A few weeks ago, I mentioned that the gold rally had come to an end.
At the time, the price was at $1,970, and I expected the price to crash for the rest of the year.
Well, the crash came much sooner than even I expected.
Just last week, gold prices sank another 4%. And to put this into perspective.
We have not seen this kind of gold crash performance since June 2021.
In fact, on 25 September, the gold price dropped from $1,970 per ounce down to a low of $1,829.
If you missed the first down leg of gold, you’re not going to want to miss the next one.
Here’s why I expect the price to continue down.
Why the JOLTS report is great for America but bad for gold
Let’s start with what the JOLTS report is.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report is a monthly
publication by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
It tells us important information about the U.S. labour market.
The report is typically released a few weeks after the closely watched m (Nonfarm Payrolls) and offers a different perspective on the job market.
August data of the US JOLTS Jobs Openings was recently released. And it crushed analysts’ expectations.
It showed the job openings improved to 9.61 million in August from the previous reading of 8.92 million.
When the report came out, the gold price dropped even further.
We need to remember….
The JOLTS report of 9.61 million in August suggests a strong labour market and a boost in economic optimism.
In a growing economy, we’ll see investors will look to riskier assets like stocks over safe-haven assets like gold.
And so, this led to a decrease in gold demand and a drop in its price.
Another interest rate hike is on the cards
Several Fed officials have suggested that America can expect at least one more 25 basis points rate hike by the end of the year.
This will be to try to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
Also, with the higher jobs openings and a stronger economy – this has put the US wage inflation and higher interest rates back on the agenda.
Here is what Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, said in a Reuters note.
“There is a reckoning that interest rates are going to be higher for much longer, which has been the bearish element in the precious market.
Gold prices could go below $1,800 in the near-term,”
I don’t normally agree with the news and hype.
But the charts agree with the downside to come.
Why this massive inverse Cup and Handle is showing 10% for gold
You can see since April 2023, it’s been moving in a bearish (down) pattern known as an Inverse Cup and Handle.
Three parts make this Inverse C&H pattern including a.
Cup (big rounding top),
Handle (small rounding top) and a
Brim level (horizontal support).
Now that the price has broken below the brim level, means we should expect the price to continue down.
The first target I have for gold is to the next strong support (floor level) at $1,710.
This was the level that was tested in January, and it looks like the price will go back to that testing level again.
didnot break support 1858 and bounced#GOLD... what a hodling of 1858 market didnot break his immediate support and bounced,
now market next resistance is 1868 and market just placed,
keep close that area and dont be lazy here, if market hold it then again drop expected from here, other above that it will be invalid
trade wisely
good luck
XAUUSD: Thursday Gold AnalysisGold market analysis: Gold 4-hour level: At this time, it is still under the 10-day moving average and has been falling slowly. However, there are temporary signs of consolidation in the small range at the bottom. There is also a golden cross under the MACD zero axis and a gradual increase in volume. We need to observe this kind of shock. Can it continue for two or three days? When the consolidation time is longer and the middle track is gradually pushed downward, once it stands on the middle track, it means that the prototype of the bottom stabilizing structure has appeared. At that time, there will be a wave of upward corrections. Currently, it still needs Continue to wait and see; the short-term mid-rail is mainly bearish on rallies below 1840. When the rebound touched the 1833 line, which was the previous starting point and fall position, because the rebound failed to break through this key pressure level, the downward pattern was not broken. This is one of the reasons why we have always insisted on shorting. In yesterday's U.S. market, around the 1829 line, we firmly maintained our short position and traded profitably. With the upward and downward trend after the rebound, the price returned to the 1820 line. The entire rebound process ended and the market returned to a short position. Therefore, continuing to go short has become an inevitable choice. However, judging from the 4H/1H candle chart, the resistance of 1815 is still effective. The big upward or downward direction still needs to wait for the release of tomorrow's non-farm employment data.
Taken together, today's gold short-term top focus is on the resistance of 1830-1833, and the bottom short-term focus is on the support of 1815-1804;
SELL:1828-1830
SL:1836
TP1:1820
TP2:1815
TP3:1810
Look at the support near 1815 and go long
XAUUSD: 6/10, super data day is comingData released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the latest week was 207,000, the lowest level in a year. Ohio and Alabama saw the largest declines in jobless claims, while claims rose in California. The monthly jobs report due out on Friday will provide more information on the job market. Economists expect nonfarm payroll growth to slow but remain healthy. U.S. bond yields surged to multi-year highs, driving wild market volatility. Friday's NFP and next week's inflation data will determine whether the 10-year Treasury yield rises to 5% or falls to 4.5%.
Traders see a roughly 37% chance the Fed will raise interest rates again this year, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, as this increases the opportunity cost of holding gold. As the end of the year approaches, we do think gold prices will appreciate next year, and we think the Fed will cut interest rates more than the market currently expects. Investors will look forward to Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to show the labor force fell to 170,000 from 187,000. A failure to live up to the headline number could give gold prices some much-needed boost on the charts, while a "fail" scenario could see prices continue to fall.
Today is a super data day. There is no strategy suggestion. Let’s wait for DXY to give direction first. If DXY is still in the range of 107.69~105.648, it means that gold will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. Wait for today's NFP announcement and observe the DXY trend. If you trade gold, it is recommended to start next week.
XAUUSD:9/10 Today’s Trading StrategyFrom a daily perspective, gold rebounded from a low last Friday and closed at the Zhongyang line. From a disk perspective, the gold price trend last Friday was similar to last Thursday. After the gold price fell briefly due to the impact of the data, there was a short-term buying trend. At present, the daily closing line is a yang, which ends the nine consecutive yin. The MACD fast and slow lines diverge upward after the golden cross, and the RSI shows a bottom divergence. However, sideways movement that follows a decline is generally more likely to be a bearish relay. However, trading volume and correction needs at the 4-hour and daily levels have not been met. Therefore, I prefer that gold is currently in a volatile trend rather than continuing to decline.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, gold opened near the middle track last Friday. It fell after hitting a low after the evening data was released and then rebounded. It broke through the upper track and closed sideways at the intraday high. The Bollinger Bands are currently in the opening period, and the MA The three lines of the moving average are moving forward, the three lines of the KDJ stochastic indicator are upward, reaching overbought, the red kinetic energy column of the MACD indicator is increasing, and the golden cross of the fast and slow lines is upward. Gold bulls have begun to stabilize after the non-agricultural sector, and it continued to rebound by nearly 20 points before closing. Overall, it shows that the strength of the short positions has begun to slowly dissipate, and the market will gradually confirm the long position. Taken together, the gold day operation idea suggests that callbacks should be the main focus, rebounds are shorts, and the top short-term focus should be on the 1865-1868 first-line resistance. . Since gold opened higher than 20USD, we still have to wait for the US market to show a retracement before making a decision to go long.
SELL:1865-1868
SL:1873
TP1:1858
TP2:1852
XAUUSD:10/10 Today’s Trading StrategyGold's rebound from 1810 was originally expected to continue its rise this week, with the pressure measured around 1840 and 1850. However, due to the impact of the news, it has now broken through the 1855 pressure. Therefore, according to the technical continuation needs, the top can focus on the early stage. Pressure around 1880. However, the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict will not be alleviated for a while, and the risk of further deterioration is very high. It may even completely change the situation in the Middle East and the United States' entry into the market. Therefore, under this favorable situation, gold may rise at any time, but it may fall. It is no longer that easy, so even if gold tests the technical pressure of 1880-1900 in the short term, it is not advisable to blindly see pressure adjustments based on technical trends. It is necessary to make early adjustments based on the fundamental situation.
Based on the current golden hour chart and daily structure, including the situation that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is unlikely to be alleviated in a short period of time, gold is still expected to continue rising at the beginning of this week. However, due to yesterday's jump, some of the rising space has been eaten up in advance, so as much as possible Don't chase long, but wait for a moderate correction before considering going long. The short-term technical aspect has completely returned to the upward rhythm of the bull's strong rebound. Coupled with the impact of risk aversion in the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict, in the short-term perspective, gold prices will further rely on Monday's gap of 1835 to continue to maintain a volatile upward rhythm and break high. Today's lower support attention Around 1850-1852, the day's retracement relies on this position to continue to be bullish. The upper target level is still focused on breaking high. The bulls' strong dividing line focuses on yesterday's low 1844 line. The daily line level stabilizes and continues to maintain a strong unilateral rise above this position. The shape remains unchanged, and you need to be cautious when going against the trend. On the whole, today's short-term gold operation ideas suggest that the callback is mainly long, and the rebound is supplementary. The upper short-term focus is on the 1875-1880 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on 1850-1855.
SELL:1875-1878
SL:1883
TP1:1870
TP2:1865
BUY:1853-1855
SL:1847
TP1:1860
TP2:1865
Positive signals appeared causing gold to recover as Middle EastThe current spot price for gold on the global market is approximately $1,856 per ounce. The price of gold delivered at Comex New York in December was $1,872/oz. Gold prices rose after Israel refused to make peace with Hamas. Both Israel and Hamas appear determined to continue their attacks. Talks have begun between the EU, the US, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar, but it is seen as too early to reach an agreement. After Israel declared war, the price of gold rose as the price of crude oil, which is closely related to gold, rose.
gold price prediction
Experts at Leader Capital Markets told Reuters the dispute is likely to be long and severe.
ANZ Bank experts expect oil prices to continue rising in the near future. The recent rise in oil prices is also due to a decline in supply due to reduced production in OPEC+ countries. Iran's export cuts could cause supply bottlenecks in the fourth quarter. When the world is unstable, gold is often seen as protection from the storm. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas is likely to prompt a shift towards safe-haven investments such as gold and the US dollar.
Currently, many organizations do not provide gold price forecasts. Much is said to depend on how long the conflict lasts and how tense the situation becomes.
Assess Gold Gains and Navigating Risk AssessmentI wanted to bring your attention to the recent gold gains you may have noticed, and to prompt a thoughtful pause in your gold trading activities. In today's economic climate, it's crucial to evaluate the inherent risks attached to geopolitical uncertainties before making any impulsive investment decisions.
Recent global events have introduced significant geopolitical risks, from growing trade tensions to political unrest and instabilities in various regions across the globe. These uncertainties have fueled the surge in gold prices, as investors seek the stability and hedging properties that this precious metal historically offers during times of turmoil. This trend should not be ignored but approached with caution.
Given the inherent volatility and unpredictability surrounding geopolitical events, it is advisable to take a step back and assess the situation before initiating or expanding positions in gold. Rushing into trading decisions without adequately comprehending the potential impact of these external factors exposes one to heightened risks.
To navigate these emerging challenges successfully, I encourage you to pause your gold trading activities temporarily. A prudent approach would involve closely monitoring geopolitical developments, conducting thorough research, and leveraging insights from robust market analysis. By doing so, you can gain a better understanding of the nuances at play, mitigating potential losses and capitalizing on advantageous opportunities.
In conclusion, as a responsible trader, taking a cautious stance amid rising geopolitical risks is imperative. I urge you to put a pause on gold trading for now, assessing the evolving landscape meticulously before resuming your trading activities. Remember, patience and informed decision-making are indispensable in times of uncertainty.
Something is fishy why markets are normal even in war#GOLD... at that time when attach on Israel that was weekend and market open with a gap of 20 points around,
But at that time when USA announced that he will stand with Israel and attach on ghaza ,hamas and Putin said if USA attack I will distrou him, there is no move , why??
Something is going wrong.
Will see what will be done from market,
But technically we have 1858 as immediate supporting line below that next will be 1852 and then 1845
Keep close that areas ..
Good luck n Happy trading..
Wait for gold to fall back and go long goldThe trading ideas I gave you today are still mainly about long gold at low levels, and I remind you that today we mainly focus on the short-term support position to do long gold. The first support position we focus on is the 1853-1851 area, followed by 1847-1845 area.We could consider going long gold around this support area.
At present, gold has fallen back to the lowest level near 1855, and has not touched the position I expected. Therefore, I have not yet had the opportunity to participate in long gold. However, while waiting for gold to fall back, I informed everyone that you can short gold near 1859. , and manually close the position near 1857. It’s also fun to reap small profits while you wait.
Judging from the current gold trend structure, gold is affected by the geopolitical situation. The current highest gold price has hit the 1865 resistance level that I reminded everyone two days ago. Relatively speaking, gold's short-term performance has been in line with my expectations. Therefore, at this stage, we need to pay attention to whether the situation continues to ferment and avoid risks. I personally expect there to be a two to three day rise, but in terms of trading, I will not blindly continue to be long gold near the 1865 position. I will wait patiently for gold prices to fall back before going long gold.
In fact, as long as you grasp the rhythm, it is easy to profit from gold trading. If you don't know the accurate trading rhythm, you can follow my trading ideas. I post my trading ideas every day and I also post free trading signals on a regular basis. Many friends have given feedback that it is very helpful. If you want to learn market trading logic, or you want clear trading signals and get more profits, I can satisfy you. Be sure to follow the bottom of the article to view the details!
Detailed Gold Analysis - Whats happening! Retail Traders panic?Hi Traders,
Friday trading just finished and my god, I was very surprised at how badly metals were beaten up... Granted Silver was the better of the bad bunch but still! Absolute massacre...
Now you may be thinking? Surely gold will rebound now? Short answer... is maybe?
Why am I saying this? - Here is the COT Report for this week.
Non-Commercial Commercial Total Non-Reportable
Long Short Spreads Long Short Long Short Long Short
(CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) Open Interest: 435,620
235,560 119,745 44,003 110,844 245,680 390,407 409,428 45,213 26,192
Changes (Change In Open Interest: -2,458 )
-2,156 +17,192 -2,424 +830 -17,266 -3,750 -2,498 +1,292 +40
So the market is on the healthier balance when it comes to longs vs shorts and no longer in that extreme zone. - Now the 17,000 short positions must have been institutions repositioning for October - December where gold is at it's strongest, pushing the price lower on purpose to break people's stop losses to then bounce back.
Looking at fundamentals of multiple incursions happening across the world + stagflation and risk of WWIII and risk of Total economy collapse (cough, China, Cough) I have a baseline that gold should stabilise around 1860 - 1840 mark...
Now the counter argument? - Gold capitulation because of higher for longer on yields... and Gold absolutely hates higher Yields! Why would someone buy Gold if they can just put it in a bank and get bigger % return.
NAME COUPON PRICE YIELD 1 MONTH 1 YEAR TIME (EDT)
GB3:GOV
3 Month
0.00 5.30 5.45% 0 +215 4:59 PM
GB6:GOV
6 Month
0.00 5.31 5.54% +1 +165 4:59 PM
GB12:GOV
12 Month
0.00 5.16 5.45% +7 +152 4:59 PM
GT2:GOV
2 Year
5.00 99.92 5.04% +15 +85 4:59 PM
GT5:GOV
5 Year
4.63 100.07 4.61% +33 +59 4:59 PM
GT10:GOV
10 Year
3.88 94.52 4.57% +45 +78 4:59 PM
GT30:GOV
30 Year
4.13 90.83 4.70% +47 +98 4:59 PM
What can we see from this, that we have yields aggressively pushed through YTD highs, and we are now in the fear of the unknown. Weak US economic data will provide headwind for the yields and the dollar, but FED speak is counter balancing this heavily.
So for now? Do put any long term bets just yet on Gold, day trade, buy off bottoms and stop loss below daily lows at this point is the only option and scalp the hell out of it until it breaks back across 1885, then you can recommence rebuying gold in large quantitites.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK (1 - 6 months)
Neutral to Bearish
LONG TERM OUTLOOK (6months +)
Bullish with price target in 2024 Q2 to be $2000 mark.
XAUUSD May have a breakdown!GOLD may have breakdown to daily support level as the market left a hige gap unchecked, there is very high probablity it may drop from 50% fib level to fill the gap as the the long term trend is down.
The price on the lower timeframe currently has fromed a head & shoulder and my continue to drop to daily support level.
A Possible Sell Entry in GoldAs Gold has retraced back to 78.6% of fibo level and would likely be falling from this price range the confluance for sell entries we have strong resistance level at 1864 to 1861 level also the confluance is we know that gold is in a downtrend and would return to its price level as in my anylisis gold is trying making lower high and would go for a Lowe low to atleast 1786 level and 1759 level
Gold prices skyrocketed because of conflicts in the Middle East After Hamas' surprise military attack on Israel last weekend, safe-haven demand for gold increased sharply. Thereby, December gold price increased by 18.40 USD, to around 1,863.40 USD/ounce.
Besides, the gold market is also being affected by US macroeconomic data about to be announced this week.
Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodity broker at RJO Futures, said that the upcoming release of US CPI data will show that inflation is starting to weaken and that will be good for gold. Pavilonis predicts that gold prices may increase in the near future.
Meanwhile, Marc Chandler, CEO at Bannockburn Global Forex, said the gold market needs more economic data to confirm the sustainability and clearer direction of the market.
According to Chandler, currently the gold market is still mainly affected by the strength of the USD and bond yields, not the gold purchasing activities of central banks. He believes that gold will have to move above the level of 1,833 - 1,835 USD/ounce to stabilize the current trend.
Going long gold is profitable as expectedThe trading ideas I gave you today are still based on long gold at low levels, and I remind you to do long gold around the short-term support position today. The first support position we focus on is the 1846-1844 area.We were long gold around this area. Gold has now successfully touched my expected profit target position of 1854. Congratulations to all of us on our first victory of the week today.
Gold has been affected by the geopolitical situation. So far, gold has reached a high of around 1855. According to the current structural trend of gold, the upper suppression point of gold is around 1865, followed by the 1877-1875 area. Therefore, 1855 is definitely not the highest point of this round of gold rebound. I expect gold may hit around 1865 and maybe even hit the resistance area around 1875. Therefore, in the next short-term trading, we will mainly be long gold at low levels. In addition, CPI data will be released this week. This data will be the highlight of our gold trading. I believe that as long as we seize this opportunity, we will reap profits beyond expectations.
In fact, as long as you grasp the rhythm, it is easy to profit from gold trading. If you don't know the accurate trading rhythm, you can follow my trading ideas. I post my trading ideas every day and I also post free trading signals on a regular basis. Many friends have given feedback that it is very helpful. If you want to learn market trading logic, or you want clear trading signals and get more profits, I can satisfy you. Be sure to follow the bottom of the article to view the details!