Get started

Goldtrade

Pay attention to long gold at low levelsYesterday, I and everyone made a summary of our transactions in the past three months. In the past three months of transactions, although we sometimes suffered losses, overall, we achieved pretty good results.We made a profit of $170K. Although this number is not huge, I am still quite satisfied. Affected by the geopolitical situation, gold has so far reached a high of around 1855. According to the current structural trend of gold, the upper suppression point of gold is around 1865, followed by the 1877-1875 area. Therefore, 1855 is definitely not the highest point of this round of gold rebound. Gold may hit near 1865 and may even hit the resistance area near 1875. Therefore, in the next short-term trading, we will mainly be long gold at low levels, focusing on the support in the 1840-1838 area. In fact, as long as you grasp the rhythm, it is easy to profit from gold trading. If you don't know the accurate trading rhythm, you can follow my trading ideas. I post my trading ideas every day and I also post free trading signals on a regular basis. Many friends have given feedback that it is very helpful. If you want to learn market trading logic, or you want clear trading signals and get more profits, I can satisfy you. Be sure to follow the bottom of the article to view the details!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trader_Antonio
Would the Middle East Conflict Push Gold and Oil Prices Higher?NYMEX: WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ), COMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) Over the weekend, military conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestine shocked the world. I condemn violence against civilians and pray for the victims and their families. In the following paragraphs, I will discuss how the prices of strategically important commodities, namely gold and crude oil, might respond to the eruption of a global crisis. Firstly, let’s look back into the recent past for those crises arising to a global scale. In the last five years, the world has witnessed three major crises of very different natures: • US-China Trade Conflict: from January 2018 to January 2020, the world’s two largest economies imposed import duties to each other in a series of escalating actions and retaliations. A major event occurred on September 18, 2018, where President Trump added 10% tariff on nearly all Chinese-made products. The US-China trade conflict forever altered the global supply chain, with its impact being felt till today. • Covid-19, the most severe pandemic in a century, from its outbreak in January 2020 to 2021. A big event that sparked market fear occurred on February 2, 2020, where the US imposed travel restrictions on incoming air passengers. • Russia-Ukraine Conflict: the first military conflict in Europe since World War II, from February 14, 2022, till now. Secondly, let’s measure how gold and WTI crude oil responded to these crises. For my analysis, I denote the day before Event Day as T0, where we may find last market prices before the impact hit. Event Day will be T+1, and then 1-week after (T+7), 1-month after (1M), 3-month after (3M), all the way through 1-year after (1Y). Here are what I found: US-China Trade Conflict • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,201.90 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -0.1% (T+1), +0.1% (T+7), +2.3% (1M), +3.3% (3M), +8.6% (6M), +11.6% (9M), +25.0% (1Y) • Comment: Trade tension between US and China could push the global economy into a recession. Gold, a safe-haven asset, saw its market value growing 25% in a year. • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $69.86 per barrel • Price changes by time: +1.2% (T+1), +6.3% (T+7), +4.3% (1M), -27.7% (3M), -14.2% (6M), -24.6% (9M), -8.4% (1Y) • Comment: High tariff raised the price consumers had to pay, hence reducing demand. Crude was down 28% three months after the all-in tariff was imposed. Covid Pandemic • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,574.75 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -1.0% (T+1), -0.1% (T+7), +2.6% (1M), +8.5% (3M), +24.4% (6M), +21.2% (9M), +16.6% (1Y) • Comment: We saw the biggest stock market selloff in March 2020. Gold price was down initially as stock traders needed to raise money and meet margin calls. However, a flight to safety eventually took place, and gold was up 24% in six months. • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $53.09 per barrel • Price changes by time: -5.0% (T+1), -11.9% (T+7), -77.1% (1M), -61.4% (3M), -23.1% (6M), -31.1% (9M), +0.9% (1Y) • Comment: Rapid Covid outbreaks stroke fear. Lockdowns put global activities to a pause. The pandemic wiped out oil demand, with WTI falling 80% in a month. April 20, 2020 made history as oil price of the expiring contract went below zero. As storage cost more than selling price, traders were willing to pay others to take away the crude for free. Russia-Ukraine Conflict • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,854.60 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -2.5% (T+1), -2.5% (T+7), +6.5% (1M), -1.8% (3M), -2.8% (6M), -5.0% (9M), +5.0% (1Y) • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $91.25 per barrel • Price changes by time: +4.7% (T+1), +5.3% (T+7), +30.7% (1M), +12.90 (3M), +1.1% (6M), +0.6% (9M), -17.2% (1Y) • Comment: A major military conflict in Europe significantly raised the global risk level. Gold, the safe-haven asset, and crude oil, an energy commodity critically important in wartime, both went up in the first month, by 6.5% and 30.7%, respectively. • However, the impact was short-lived. On March 16, 2022, the Fed begin hiking interest rates, which has become the driving force in global market. Impact from Russia-Ukraine became a secondary factor and sat in the back burner. To sum up the above examples, I observe that gold prices usually go up in the aftermath of a global crisis. Crude oil has a mixed bag of reactions. If a crisis results in economic recession and a consequential reduction in oil demand, oil prices would go down. However, in the case of a major war, oil price would go up due to its strategic importance. Review: Event-driven Strategy focusing on Global Crises In June 2022, I introduced a three-factor pricing model for commodities futures: Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Crisis Premium Intrinsic Value is the baseline cash price of the underlying commodities, determined by available supply, demand, inventory, shipping costs, and factors affecting these variables. Market Sentiment indicates if investors are bullish or bearish. Whether speculative investors place more money on the long side or the short side affects the price of a futures contract. Market sentiment could be either positive or negative, resulting in a price premium or a discount of the intrinsic value. The new Crisis Premium factor captures “Event Shock” during a global geopolitical crisis. Previous trade example: Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 28% of global wheat export. Wheat price shot up by 75% following the start of the conflict. I designed a Long Strangle options strategy on CBOT Wheat futures, and simultaneously bought out-of-the-money (OTM) call and put options. A “risk-on” outcome could push wheat price higher, making the calls more valuable, where a “risk-off” outcome would pull wheat price back down, making the puts in-the-money (ITM). Trading Opportunities with Micro Gold Since the September FOMC meeting, gold prices suffered a 6.3% drawdown, sending the futures price from $1,969 to $1,845. Friday settlement price was nearly 9% below the yearly high. On the one hand, high-interest money market funds beat out non-interest-yielding gold investment; on the other hand, strong dollar raised the cost of gold purchase by foreign investors. As a result, gold prices have been under pressure. However, my analysis illustrates that gold prices could rise in response to geopolitical conflicts. Since its founding, Israel had five major wars with its Arab neighbors. We do not know whether this time it would be contained as a regional conflict or spark a chain reaction of a global war. By the intensity of how it started, it doesn’t seem like a short one. To express a view of rising gold prices, we could consider a long position in COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ). The December contract (MGCZ3) was settled at $1,845. Each contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces, or $18,450 at market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $780 per contract. Hypothetically, if gold futures go back up to $2020, its yearly high, the $175 ($2020-$1845) price increase would translate into $1,750 for a long futures position. If gold price goes down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $10 per contract. Alternatively, we could consider the newly launched Micro Gold Options. A Long Strangle Options Strategy, where simultaneously buying OTM calls or puts, could be deployed if we expect a big move in gold price, but not certain of its direction. Trading Opportunities with WTI Crude Oil Since June, WTI crude oil first staged a nearly 40% rise, from $67 going to $93. However, it has seen a 9% drawdown since the Fed meeting on September 20th. A major military conflict in the Middle East, the world’s most important oil producing region, threatens to interrupt oil supply and push up oil price. If the conflict is escalated to involve major oil exporting nations, the situation could be dire. To express a view of rising crude price, we could consider a long position in NYMEX WTI Futures ( NYSE:CL ). The December contract (CLZ3) was settled at $83.18. Each contract has a notional value of 1,000 barrels, or $83,180 at market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $6,186 per contract. Hypothetically, if WTI futures go up above $100, which we saw from February to July 2022 in the first months of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the $17 price increase would translate into $17,000 for a long futures position. If crude oil price goes down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $1000 per contract. Similarly, the newly launched Micro WTI Options could express a view that a big move in oil price is expected, without knowing its direction. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
35
Dead Cat Bounce with Gold before the next crash to $1,710Bear market rally is forming with Gold. We are seeing a somewhat recovery. But the overall medium term trend is down. And we need to act accordingly to the major trends. This is a normal Dead Cat Bounce. And the ONLY way it will prove me wrong, is if it breaks out of the downtrend which will start a new uptrend. So what could cause this uptrend? 1. Safe haven status becomes strong with gold again. 2. Israel and Palestine war over commercialises the public and people start taking their money out of stocks and risky assets and into Gold. 3. World stock markets crash and people can't help but invest in gold... But right now, the trend is DOWN. So we'll stick with this trend and look for shorts only.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Timonrosso
XAUUSD: Gold’s decline has come to an end, 1815 lows are bullishAlthough the data for gold were negative yesterday, the market did not continue to reach a new low, which also proved what was said yesterday that the market will start to fluctuate and adjust! If the weak is no longer weak, it will turn strong. Gold is still bullish at low prices today. Go long at 1815! It can be seen from the 4-hour trend of gold that it has been declining before, and the strength of the rebound is very small! Each rebound encounters resistance from the Bollinger Band mid-rail pressure for 4 hours and then begins to fall. However, the market has begun to change in the past three days. Although it is still subject to the suppression of Bollinger's middle track, it no longer breaks new lows! When things go awry, there must be a demon. Today's strong decline can hardly continue to a new low, which means that the market is about to change! And today is the day when the big non-agricultural data is released. With the right time, right place and right people, the market can turn around at any time! The low-long position started in early trading, and the upper pressure continued to focus on 1833. If it breaks through, the rebound will be established!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nick_John
2
Gold tends to decreaseWorld gold prices tend to increase in the first trading session of the week. Wall Street analysts and retail investors are evenly split on the outlook for gold prices this week. After a series of days of losses since the US Federal Reserve (FED) kept interest rates unchanged on September 20 and after the US employment report pushed spot gold prices to a new 7-month low of 1810.46 USD, gold is finally showing signs of positive recovery. Meanwhile, Mr. James Stanley - senior market strategist at Forex.com said that gold will maintain its recent price range but cannot increase in price, and the precious metal may even probe its low level this week. This. TVC:GOLD SELL 1850 -1852 ✔️TP1: 1844 ✔️TP2: 1838 ❌SL: 1856
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
BIG Potential Long For Gold/ XAUUSD This Week !Weekly Candle has bounced off the weekly support area. Daily candle closed bullish engulfing after Fridays Non Farm Payroll numbers were released. This supports a bullish bias going into the new week. We can expect a continuation to 1850 and 1862 in the next couple days. 15 Minute chart has taken sellside and then given us a market structure shift as annotated. The market structure shift has caused displacement and left behind an FVG which was then tapped into on Friday post NFP. We have a new untapped fair value gap which resides below the equal lows on the 15 minute chart. This is likely the next draw on liquidity before the next move to the upside. I'd like to see price sweep the lows and then run for the breakout of the m15 bullish flag that is currently forming. A breakout will be the confirmed entry in to the run for 1850 and 1862 which is the next H4 FVG / imbalance area. Hope you guys catch this great opportunity with me. Shakeel_SS.FX
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shakeel_SSFX
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) Long Term Buying Trading IdeaHello Traders In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today Gold analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ForexPlanet20
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) Long Term Buying Trading IdeaHello Traders In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today Gold analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ForexPlanet20
🌟 Discover the Golden Opportunity as Global Risks Build! 🌟 As we navigate through uncertain times, it's crucial to consider the potential impact of global risks on our investment strategies. Gold, often regarded as a safe haven, has been attracting significant attention lately. With rising concerns about inflation, geopolitical tensions, and market volatility, gold has emerged as a compelling asset to explore. Why should you consider gold as a part of your portfolio? Allow me to shed some light: 1. Hedge Against Inflation: As governments around the world continue to implement expansive monetary policies, inflationary pressures are mounting. Gold has historically served as a hedge against inflation, preserving wealth during times of economic uncertainty. 2. Geopolitical Turbulence: Global events, such as political conflicts, trade disputes, and economic crises, can have a profound impact on financial markets. Gold's value tends to rise during such turbulent times, making it an attractive option for traders seeking stability. 3. Diversification Benefits: Adding gold to your investment mix can enhance portfolio diversification, reducing overall risk. Its low correlation with other traditional assets can help mitigate losses during market downturns. Now, let's talk about the call-to-action that will help you make the most of this golden opportunity. I encourage you to consider "longing gold cautiously" as part of your trading strategy. Here are a few tips to keep in mind: 1. Research and Analysis: Conduct thorough research and stay updated on global economic indicators, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. This will help you make informed decisions when entering or exiting gold positions. 2. Risk Management: While gold can be an attractive investment, it's important to exercise caution and manage your risk exposure. Set clear stop-loss levels and consider diversifying your gold investments across different forms, such as physical gold, gold ETFs, or gold mining stocks. 3. Consult with Experts: Seek guidance from experienced professionals or financial advisors who specialize in gold investments. Their expertise can provide valuable insights and help you navigate the complexities of the market. Remember, trading is both an art and a science, and embracing gold as part of your strategy requires careful consideration. By approaching it with a cautious mindset and a happy tone, you can unlock the potential benefits it offers. So, seize this golden opportunity and embark on a journey that combines excitement with prudence. As always, happy trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Trading strategies that are sure to make moneyToday is the day we have been waiting for because the non-farm payroll data was released today. We traded gold on the NFP market and made good profits. This morning, I gave you two ideas, one is to short gold in the 1830-1835 area; the other is to go long gold in the 1805-1800 area, but after the non-agricultural data was negative for gold,gold did not fall to the 1805-1800 area where I expected. Gold stopped falling above 1810 and formed long lower shadows many times, and the rate of decline slowed down.So I promptly adjusted my trading strategy and informed everyone to go long gold around 1812-1810. After gold stabilized and rebounded, I promptly informed everyone that they could appropriately add positions in the 1818-1816 area and continue to go long gold. Both transactions have now reached my expected profit targets, and we have made relatively good profits. Regarding how to trade gold next, I think the 1810-1805 area may be the bottom area of this round of gold decline. After gold reaches a bottom in this area, it may start a rebound at any time. Because with the release of non-agricultural data, the main negative factors have disappeared, so we will focus on long gold at low levels; of course, because gold has fallen significantly, gold cannot rebound immediately.Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of gold hitting the bottom again. Therefore, in the next transaction, we must find the correct position so that we can gain better profits in the transaction. In fact, as long as you grasp the rhythm, it is easy to profit from gold trading. If you don't know the accurate trading rhythm, you can follow my trading ideas. I post my trading ideas every day and I also post free trading signals on a regular basis. Many friends have given feedback that it is very helpful. If you want to learn market trading logic, or you want clear trading signals and get more profits, I can satisfy you. Be sure to follow the bottom of the article to view the details!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trader_Antonio
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) Long Term Selling Trading IdeaHello Traders In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today Gold analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ForexPlanet20
GOLD Price Awaits US NFP Data Amidst Dollar ConsolidationGold Price Awaits US NFP Data Amidst Dollar Consolidation Gold prices are showing signs of stabilization after two consecutive days of correction from an 11-month high. The recent consolidation of the United States Dollar (USD) has provided some respite to the precious metal, which had experienced downward pressure. However, the fate of gold remains uncertain as investors eagerly await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, a crucial indicator that could shape the direction of both the USD and gold in the near term. Gold Price Recap Gold price (XAU/USD) is currently hovering around the $1,820 mark after bouncing back from a weekly low of $1,813 during the early Asian trading session on Friday. The precious metal is grappling with headwinds as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain its 'higher-for-longer' stance on interest rates. Market participants are looking to the highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls report for clarity on the state of the labor market. Market Dynamics The subdued tone surrounding the US Dollar can be attributed to a moderately optimistic sentiment in the Asian session, despite mixed developments in the Chinese property market. Nevertheless, the precious metal remains under pressure as higher US Treasury yields weigh on non-yielding assets like gold. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has retreated to 106.40 after pulling back from monthly highs. US Treasury yields have also eased, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.73%, while the 2-year yield remains at 5.02%. Key Data and Market Focus The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on September 30 improved to 207,000 from the previous reading of 205,000, surpassing market expectations of 210,000. Furthermore, the US Balance of Trade deficit was $58.3 billion, lower than the anticipated $62.3 billion and the $64.7 billion recorded in July. The US employment data set to be released on Friday will be the focal point for traders. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 170,000, a decrease from the 180,000 additions reported in August. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to drop slightly from 3.8% to 3.7% in September, while Average Hourly Earnings are likely to rise by 4.3% year-on-year, consistent with the previous figure. The outlook for Gold Gold traders are closely monitoring the US Average Hourly Earnings data for September, the Nonfarm Payrolls report, and the Unemployment Rate. These data releases have the potential to induce market volatility and guide trading decisions. Depending on the outcome of the NFP report, gold prices may either make a push toward $1,850 and beyond in the event of a weak report or face headwinds if the data suggests the Fed could pursue another rate hike by year-end. In Conclusion Gold prices are stabilizing as the US Dollar consolidates, but the impending US Nonfarm Payrolls data release remains a significant driver of market sentiment. Investors are poised for potential market movements following the NFP release, with the direction of both the USD and gold hanging in the balance. Our preference Below 1851.000 look for further downside with 1805.00 & 1790.00 as targets.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
10
XAUUSD:3/10 Today’s Trading StrategyGold prices fell to their lowest settlement price since March on Monday and are heading toward a so-called "death cross," which could lead to further falls. In early Asian trading on Tuesday, spot gold continued its decline, with the price once hitting a nearly seven-month low of $1,815. However, fundamentally, “interest rates and the Fed’s hawkish stance are still the theme of this game and the market’s focus in the coming weeks. The main driving force”. The last time gold prices fell this low was more than six months ago, when a regional U.S. banking crisis triggered an influx of buyers. “Then, as now, pressure on gold prices came from rising U.S. government bond yields and an assessment of expectations for higher long-term interest rates. Judging from the current daily structure, all important positions that could provide technical support in the past have been broken. It seems that the decline has lost its support basis. Gold bulls have been completely passive. Even if the US dollar index appears to be under pressure, it will not be helpful to gold bulls. Therefore, when gold can stop falling and rebound in the future, and when bulls can exert force, it may require the influence of fundamentals. Without the support of positive fundamental factors, even if gold stops falling and rebounds, its strength and space may not be able to eliminate the extreme emotional pressure of short sellers. Therefore, for the future trend of gold, we need to pay close attention to changes in fundamental factors and market sentiment. Judging from the daily analysis, the gold moving average continues to cross downwards, and the short trend is still obvious. Gold has been falling all day without any rebound. It is difficult to say when this trend will bottom out. It can only be said that it continues to be short with the trend. Gold rebounded slightly to 1840 and then fell back. This shows that gold 1840 still has great resistance. Overall The technical pattern is very clear for short positions. Any rebound is a short-selling opportunity. Keep trading with the trend. Taken together, today's gold operation idea is to focus on short selling on rebounds. If you go long on callbacks, you can only make about 5 US dollars before leaving the market. SELL:1828~1830 SL:1835 TP1:1821 TP2:1816 TP3:1805 BUY:1805~1808 SL:1800 TP:1815
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ActuaryJ
1