Gold Overbought Daily, Weekly, Monthly: But Does it Matter?Gold Talking Points:
Gold bulls have continued to push an impressive trend throughout 2024 and there was another extension of that this morning with another fresh all-time-high.
At this point chasing fresh breakouts in gold can be seen as challenging given that it’s now showing overbought conditions on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. But – that doesn’t mean that price has to turn. Instead, the focus can shift to pullbacks of higher-low support, like what had showed around FOMC last week.
It’s been an astounding rally in gold so far in 2024 and that’s continued through another week, with the metal getting another push-higher this morning on the back of dovish Fed comments from Neel Kashkari and Austan Goolsbee. The big USD driver for this week is unveiled on Friday with the most recent release of Core PCE, often considered to be ‘the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.’
Until then, however, there’s numerous iterations of Fed-speak, including a speech from Chair Powell on Thursday morning. Markets have high expectations for more dovish-speak as rate expectations are currently showing a 76.5% probability of at least 75 bps more in cuts by the end of the year, standing against a current 23.5% probability of 50 bps, which is what the Fed’s projections pointed to last Wednesday.
In gold, that FOMC rate decision delivered the last pullback as prices softened down to the $2550 zone of support. That didn’t last for long, however, as bulls pounced and continued to drive through last week’s close and this week’s open, setting another fresh all-time-high.
Gold Bigger Picture: Overbought Daily, Weekly, Monthly
At this point chasing gold-higher on breakouts can be a challenge. There’s been a proclivity for bulls to soften the drive on tests of resistance or at fresh highs, thereby leading to the build of a rising wedge pattern. And there’s also the matter of overbought dynamics to consider as gold is currently showing overbought readings on all of the daily, weekly and monthly chart.
That does not mean that gold has to turn, however. The monthly overbought read started way back in April and, of course, gold has continued to drive since then. The weekly overbought reading re-appeared in early-September, just as bulls were gearing up for another breakout. And the daily overbought reading showed last Friday, and this is the first time that’s happened since April. That’s when gold began to stall and range which largely held through the Q2 close and the Q3 open.
So, overbought doesn’t mean that this is ready for reversal. It does, however, highlight the challenge of chasing and instead points to pullback potential such as the scenario I was talking about ahead of the FOMC last Wednesday.
On the below chart, I’ve highlighted the two prior episodes in 2024 when daily RSI pushed into overbought territory.
Gold Shorter-Term Strategy
I had shared a zone on twitter this morning that was highlighting short-term resistance around the 2625 level. Bulls breached that on the way to fresh highs and it’s now back in the picture as short-term support, which is confluent with the trendline taken from the higher-low produced after the FOMC pullback last week. This is also what I’m considering as support side of a rising wedge formation, which is often approached with aim of bearish reversals or pullbacks in bullish trends.
I’m more interested in pullbacks at this point and that highlights the 2619 swing of prior resistance as a possible spot of support. Below that I have another prior swing of resistance-turned-support at 2614. If that can’t hold, the door is open to a 2600 re-test which is what held the highs just after the FOMC statement release last Wednesday. When bulls drove price above that level, the pullback showing after couldn’t even get down to 2600, holding at 2602 and this sets up a support zone of note for retracement scenarios this week.
--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist
Goldtrade
FOMC! The most important news in September 2024⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices (XAU/USD) found support from buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday, halting the previous day's pullback near record highs. Expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have kept the US Dollar from fully recovering, helping to support gold prices. Additionally, concerns over potential conflict escalation in the Middle East and political uncertainty in the US ahead of the November elections continue to boost the safe-haven appeal of gold.
However, investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of key central bank meetings this week. The Fed will announce its decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, which could drive market volatility and impact gold prices.
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price decreased slightly - sideway around 2560-2590 before FOMC, Lower interest rates brought positivity to XAU. Waiting for the new ATH to reach 2603 and then drop sharply to gain liquidity below
⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2564 - $2562 SL $2557
TP1: $2570
TP2: $2580
TP3: $2590
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2545 - $2547 SL $2540
TP1: $2550
TP2: $2560
TP3: $2570
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2603 - $2605 SL $2610
TP1: $2595
TP2: $2580
TP3: $2570
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
I doubled short gold around 2589.Bros, I know that some short sellers are very anxious because gold has already reached around 2590, and it is only one step away from 2600. As long as my friends who follow me know, I hold a short position, but I am not particularly worried. If you still hold a short position in gold, please be sure to read the following content carefully.
Today, gold basically maintained a consolidation trend. As of now, gold has not broken through 2590. Since yesterday, I have been emphasizing that the 2580-2590 area is likely to become a short-term top area, and it still holds true now. Gold has failed to break through 2590 many times, and it is very likely to copy the trend of gold near 2530 some time ago. It has failed to break through many times, and it has built a short-term top structure and then fell under pressure. I think this possibility is very high!
In addition, the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates, and I firmly stand in the camp of expecting a 25 basis point interest rate cut. Once the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points below market expectations, gold will inevitably fall. Moreover, gold rose before the interest rate cut, which is likely to reserve room for decline after the interest rate cut.
Last point, in fact, what I focus on now is not market fluctuations, but market sentiment. Even if I continue to be bullish on gold, the transaction risk is very high, so I prefer to start shorting gold when the market's bullish sentiment is high. So I am not worried about the short positions in my hands. On the contrary, I doubled my short positions on gold near 2589 today. I believe that time will eventually give us rewards!
Sorry, I have already shorted gold!Stimulated by the news, gold has risen rapidly to around 2552. Obviously, gold has seen a very obvious squeeze and rise. After the rapid rise of gold, there must be a technical demand for a fall. I expect 2552 to be the high point of gold in the day, so when you all want to chase the rise of gold, I have already started to short gold!
Brothers who are shorting gold, you are definitely not alone, I am here with you!
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XAUUSD Trading for 12 Sep 2024 Didn't manage to post my trade idea earlier but this is a sell trade I took earlier today after price took out the buyside liquidity and reversed from the 50% level of the long wick marked by the dark red line. Have closed my sell trades and looking for new opportunities. Still prefer to see price drop all the way down to take out the ITL (intermediate term low below.
Note how XAUUSD have been stuck in a tight range on the weekly/daily which presents good opportunities to buy at the bottom discount or sell at the top premium.
Are you ready to short gold?Gold rose to 2520 as expected, even higher than I expected, and once reached around 2529. However, the highlight of the gold market today is the CPI data.
To be honest, for the current gold market, I don't recommend chasing gold any further. Even if gold rises to the 2530-2535 area, I don't recommend chasing gold any further. Because the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates this month, but there are still differences on whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Once the market expects a 25 basis point cut, gold will continue to fall; even if the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, I think it will be difficult for gold to rise sharply based on CPI data alone, because if gold rises sharply based on a single CPI data, it will compress the room for growth of the interest rate decision on September 19, so even if the CPI data is bullish for gold, the room for gold to rise will be compressed, and gold is likely to rise first and then fall.
So in terms of trading, I don't recommend chasing gold for the time being. On the contrary, if gold approaches the 2530-2535 area, I think you can start to short gold boldly!
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Stick to shorting gold!Today we have made good profits in both long and short gold transactions. First, we shorted gold near 2498, and gold perfectly hit TP: 2488 during the decline; then we longed gold near 2492 and manually closed the order above 2496. A total profit of 140pips was made in both long and short gold transactions, which is a very good trading result!
Today, gold fell back to around 2485 again, and then rebounded. The downward momentum did not continue, and there were signs of building a double bottom structure in the short term, proving that the 2485-2480 area still has some support for gold in the short term; however, from the perspective of the gold rebound structure, the gold rebound potential is weak, and as gold falls, the resistance area also goes down. The current short-term resistance of gold is in the 2505-2510 area. If gold cannot recover this area, gold will most likely continue to test the support near 2470.
So in terms of trading, the relatively safe way is to short gold at high levels. In short-term trading, we can boldly short gold with the 2505-2510 area as resistance. I believe there will be a good profit!
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XAU / USD ! 9/9 ! SIDEWAY continue to decreaseXAU / USD trend forecast September 9, 2024
According to the data, Fed interest rate probabilities fluctuated sharply. Based on CME FedWatch Tool data, at some point, traders priced a 50 bps cut with odds rising as high as 70%. Nevertheless, as the dust settled, market participants estimated that a 25 bps cut was more likely as the chances of it rose by 73%, while for a 50 bps cut they decreased to 27%.
In the meantime, Fed policymakers crossed the newswire. New York Fed President John Williams said that lowering rates soon will help to keep the labor market balanced. Fed Governor Christopher Waller echoed some of his comments at a speech at the University of Notre Dame. He said, “The time has come” to begin easing policy and revealed that he was open to any size of easing.
Based on H2, resistance and EMA 200 line to set up SELL signal
/// SELL XAU : zone 2505-2507
SL: 2513
TP: 50 - 150 - 200 pips (2487)
Safe and profitable trading
AUXUSDAlles is vrijdag uitgenomen aan liq boven aan op H1.
Breek van structuur en we hebben een reactie gekregen op een demandzone.
Op 2500 heb je een high die nog niet is uitnomen (wick) en op de bookmap liggen twee mooie strepen aan ordes. daarboven liggen nog nieuwe ordes tot aan 2510.5.
Mooiste is als deze worden uitnomen en dat we daarna verder naar benenden gaan richting de 2473 omdaar de ordes uit te nemen plus de liq die er ligt van de laastet wick op 2470.8
Woensdag belangrijke dag voor de cijfers die uitkomen. Die bepalen het sentiment voor de komende maanden voor beleggers.
--------
Everything was taken out on Friday at the top of H1.
Break structure and we got a response to a demand zone.
At 2500 you have a high that has not yet been taken (wick) and on the bookmap there are two nice lines of orders. above that there are new orders up to 2510.5.
The best thing is if these are taken out and then we continue down towards 2473 to take out the orders plus the liq that is there from the last wick at 2470.8
Wednesday is an important day for the figures that come out. These determine the sentiment for investors in the coming months.
Go long gold!Today's NFP market is the highlight, and gold's performance in NFP is exactly in line with my expectations. First, I explained that I am optimistic about gold's rebound after the decline in the NFP market, and focus on the 2516-2512 support area and the 2505-2500 area.
Before the release of the NFP data, gold just fell back to around 2512, and then rose to around 2518; after the release of the NFP data, gold instantly fell back to around 2508, and then rose sharply to around 2528. Basically, it meets my expectations that gold will fall back first and then rise.
At present, gold has fallen back to the 2505-2500 area again, and the current lowest point has reached around 2503, retesting yesterday's rebound area of 2504. If the test support is effective, gold will rebound again. I expect gold to rebound to at least the 2515-2520 area. So I have decisively chosen to go long on gold.
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Gold may directly point to the 2465-2455 areaToday I made more gold near 2480 and around 2474, and then lock the profit at the nearby position near 2484. In fact, I have explained very clearly about the trading strategy in the short term.
Because gold faces the resistance of 2486-2488 in the short-term, this is why I chose to close our bulls in 2484 in advance. And the shorts are relatively obvious at present, and we do more gold just to do the game gold will not fall below the support area near 2470. In addition, many people should have a plan to wait for the gold to rebound to short gold in the 2486-2490 area. Therefore, in order to lock the profit in time, I must choose to make a profit near 2484.
At present, the golden short mood is strong. We first observe the performance of gold in the 2486-2490 area. If gold touches the area fall, then we can observe the support of the 2475-2470 region again, and consider making more gold with the support of the area; if the gold breaks through the area in the short term , or even the possibility of continuing to rebound to the 2505 area, then there is no doubt that we can take short gold again!
The operation may be less profitable, but it is undoubtedly a safer operation strategy. Once the gold rebounds to the 2505 area, there is no doubt that the gold is short. If the gold falls and falls below the 2470 region, the gold will directly fall to the 2465-2455 area, pointing directly to our stage goals!
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Gold and important resistance $2,600In the monthly time frame, we see the formation of a descending angle pattern. The ranges of 2,500 and 2,600 dollars can be considered as the main resistances of gold. It is expected that after the price hits the ceiling of the corner pattern, we will see correction and fall in gold.
Boldly short goldDue to the cooling of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index and the profit-taking of some chips, gold barely held the 2500 mark. During the day, gold fell back to around 2490. As gold fell, the upper resistance fell accordingly, and the current short-term resistance has dropped to around 2510.
If gold cannot recover above 2510 today, then gold will continue to fall. Since gold is already trying to test the 2490-2495 area. According to the current weakness of gold, the support in this area may be broken at any time. Therefore, it is entirely possible for gold to continue to fall and test the 2485-2480 area, and it may even continue to fall to around 2470, pointing directly to our staged target area.
So in today's trading, we are still mainly shorting. As long as gold cannot recover above 2510, we can boldly short gold in short-term trading! Now I continue to hold my short position and look forward to further expansion of profits!
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XAUUSD 4HR Analysis | The Bulls Are Taking a Breather | XAUUSD 4HR Analysis | The Bulls Are Taking a Breather |
Gold has recently hit an all time high of 2530 and since has tested the breakage of this level a few times, in my last analysis I provided a detailed explanation of the current mining production status globally and JPY/USD economic data that could impact the price movements in the bulls favour however it seems that short term we may see a correction into the upper 2400's before any renewed price surges, with the bullish momentum volume slowing down and various bearish confirmations coming into play.
Over the last few days Gold has broke below the dynamic support + resistance level whilst also dipping below the 200 EMA on smaller timeframes and the 50 on larger such as 4HR, with the recent completion of 25% to 75% quarters and a pivot off the upper bollinger band its likely that the precious metal could take a breather down to 2,460-70 where the 200 ema lies along with a key support and resistance level and the lower bollinger band matching 25% quarter level.
With the US holidays in action today the start of the week has been sluggish with little to no volatility and price sticking in its range alongside not being able to break back above the 50 ema and dynamic s+r, the bears remain in favour until price can break this structure level back into the 2520's and thus i would not consider any long term buys with so many key psych resistance levels in between us and the ATH pivot level.
I will be keeping close eye on the key support zone of 2460-70 for suitable long term buy entries and in the meantime trade intra on price structure and short term confirmations with my group.
Continue to hold a bulls in the 2515-2516 areaBrothers, although gold once rebounded to around 2526, I explained six reasons in my private domain that gold cannot be shorted, and gold may challenge the previous high again or even set a new high. So I refused to short gold.
Gold once retreated to around 2515, brothers! Although I did not short gold, it is obvious that I seized the opportunity to go long on gold in the 2515-2516 area!
I cannot guarantee that gold will reach a new high, but I think gold will challenge the resistance in the 2525-2530 area at least once. Once it breaks through this resistance area, gold may continue to rise and touch the 2540-2550 area. So I still hold my long position now, let us look forward to the performance of gold together!
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XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
After the gold rebound, continue to short gold!Brothers, today we use the 2525-2530 area as resistance and continue to short gold near 2520. Obviously, with the help of the initial jobless claims data, our profits have grown rapidly! Because gold has certain buying support in the 2505-2500 area, we choose to manually close the position near 2507 to lock in profits in time. Congratulations to all the brothers who followed my trading signals and ended their short positions with profits again!
At present, gold has received support from the 2505-2500 area as expected, and has rebounded in the short term. It has now rebounded to around 2513. So how do we find opportunities next? In fact, from the candlestick chart, although gold continues the triangle consolidation trend, it has been under pressure in the 2525-2530 area many times, which has consumed the bullish momentum to a certain extent; and as gold falls back, the upper resistance area is gradually moving down, which is also conducive to the decline of gold; and the strong counterattack of the US dollar has also brought certain pressure to gold. In addition, if gold fails to break upward, there may be a certain amount of profit chips cashed out. Once a large number of chips are cashed out, it may even cause a certain amount of selling.
So in terms of trading, if gold continues to rebound, then I will also consider continuing to short gold after the rebound. First, observe the performance of gold in the 2516-2520 area.
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Go long gold first, then go short goldFirst of all, let me reiterate that our interim target is in the 2460-2450 area, so we have been shorting gold around 2525 recently and have made good profits in short-term trading. At present, gold is mainly running around 2500, but it has never effectively fallen below the 2500-2490 support area. So overall, gold still maintains high-level fluctuations.
On the other hand, the buying support below gold is strong, and new funds may buy after the decline of gold, limiting the decline of gold. So even if I am optimistic about the decline of gold and set the interim target as the 2460-2450 area. But gold will not fall to the right place all at once, so I will not advocate shorting gold directly around 2500.
On the contrary, for short-term trading, we can appropriately go long on gold around the 2500-2490 support area, and after gold rebounds, we will re-enter the gold short trade!
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