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The important support of gold is in 1961, go long Risk aversion broke out again. Gold rose sharply in the U.S. market yesterday, breaking through the resistance level of 1961-1965. It was under pressure in 1983 and remained in a range today. There is weak support around 1975-1973, and the best support is in the range of 1957-1961. If it falls here, as long as there is no news that is not good for gold, there is a high probability that it will rise. The specific strategy is: 1975-1967 Support valid: Purchase time: 1975-1967 tp1:1979-1982 tp2:1984-1988 Stop loss below 1960 1980-1983 range resistance failed to break Sales period: 1980-1983 Time: 1973-1967 Break through 1985 stop loss
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by EagleEyeStrategy
Gold is expected to drop to around 1870 Yesterday, gold continued to rise during trading hours. It fell from the 1905 level to around 1887, and a further drop of $10 would have completed the gap filling at the 1867 level. However, stimulated by the news of the collapse of Credit Suisse Bank, gold rebounded due to increased risk aversion. The subsequent release of PPI data was also positive for gold, with the underlying message being not to raise interest rates excessively. At the same time, as I mentioned earlier, the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank was more due to the Fed's interest rate hike that plundered global wealth. Now looking back, not only the economic wealth of the world but also the assets and various obscure funds of the rich and powerful were not spared. This is reflected in Swiss banks, which we all know have dealings with many wealthy businessmen, politicians, and cryptocurrencies, oil dollars, hedge funds, and so on. If Credit Suisse Bank collapses, it will cause a global financial storm, and at this time, the US dollar will rise. And in Europe and NATO, their stock indices and foreign exchange markets were collectively shorted, and these published data played a very crucial role. Remember the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 when gold rose more than $100 for two consecutive days? It then fluctuated for a week, and after risk aversion receded, gold returned to its price before the news broke. Now gold has risen from around 1805 to 1937, an increase of $130. From this perspective, it is not very safe to chase gold at 1937. We cannot be sure how high gold will rise before market sentiment stabilizes, but at this stage, it is not suitable to take big risks and chase after it. The higher it goes, the greater the probability of falling to around 1867, and the further away it is from 1867, the greater the profit potential of shorting. After gold rose to around 1937 yesterday, Switzerland began to rescue the banks, reducing the spread of panic and suppressing the continuous rise in risk aversion. Therefore, gold subsequently fell back to around 1910 and rebounded, currently at around 1920. If it cannot break through 1940 today, gold is highly likely to form a double top. After all, the resistance above 1940 is still very clear. Of course, if it can rise by around $50 today, reaching around 1970, combined with the initial claims data to be released today, the probability of returning directly to 1867 will be even greater. This is how the market works. It always surprises us with unexpected events. Therefore, in today's trading, if there is enough margin and a willingness to take risks, one can try to short a small amount around 1930-1940. If it can reach around 1965, then we can go short with a heavy position. Of course, such a transaction is premised on the absence of news similar to a bank bankruptcy. Currently, the global situation is tense, and after such an event, the Fed's interest rate hike next week will at least reduce or even stop. By then, the market will show retaliatory rise, which will be negative for safe-haven assets like gold. It could suddenly drop after being pumped up, with no technical factors, only a profit-taking and risk aversion easing is enough to make gold drop by $50 in one day. Moreover, the gap filling at around 1867 is still possible. It is important to remain cautious and avoid being too optimistic. Trader, if you enjoy my content, please follow and support me. I will update with more interesting trading information, including gold, crude oil, forex, cryptocurrency, stocks, etc. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment, and I will provide you with answers.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by EagleEyeStrategy
How to achieve quick profits through short-term trading?Many friends enjoy short-term trading, mostly due to the short holding time, quick results, and the thrill of the process. However, short-term trading is the most challenging among all trading methods and requires careful consideration. Today, I will share my early experience of short-term trading with you. Specific methods and strategies will be provided in the later part of this article, which are closely related to practical applications and, I believe, will be helpful for you. The article is quite lengthy. If you find it helpful, please give it a thumbs-up at the end of the article. Thank you. Advantages and disadvantages of short-term trading Short-term trading does not have a strict definition standard. When the market moves quickly, positions can be closed within a day, but if the market moves slowly, it may take two or three days to close the position, all of which belong to short-term trading. On charts, I usually consider trades at the 5-minute, 15-minute, and even 1-hour level as short-term trades. The advantages of short-term trading are: (1) Short holding time and quick results. People are naturally curious about the unknown and want to know the results quickly. Short-term trading fits human nature, making it easier to control emotions. (2) High trading frequency, providing a thrilling experience. Many traders are restless and want to trade multiple times a day, short-term trading meets this human need. (3) The decay cycle of the short-term trading system is short, and the distribution of trading results is more evenly distributed, making it easier to execute. Sometimes, even with a losing streak of 5 times, the long-term trading strategy may take over a month to recover, while the short-term trading strategy may only take two or three days. Thus, short-term trading is less torturous to human psychology during a losing streak. Disadvantages of short-term trading: (1) High trading frequency requires more time and energy and is not suitable for part-time traders. (2) Frequent trading generates high trading costs. Therefore, short-term traders need to pay attention to their commission fees. I have seen many futures traders who have had their accounts charged two or three times, or even ten times, the commission fees. How can they make a profit like this? (3) Requires higher professionalism and attention to trading details. Short-term trading is more sensitive to changes in the market. Sometimes, when the market changes, you don't have much time to think and must act decisively. People with more procrastinating personalities are not suitable for short-term trading. Additionally, the margin of error for short-term trading is relatively low. Long-term trades do not require very precise entry points, and being off by 5 or 10 points does not have a significant impact on the overall trade. However, in short-term trading, being off by 5 or 10 points can be the difference between profit and loss. Therefore, short-term trading is a delicate operation, and all trading details must be clear and easy to execute. Short-term traders also need to possess qualities such as attention to detail, boldness, calmness, and decisiveness. So, how can you quickly profit from short-term trading? Next, I will share two strategies. 2.Plan One: Choosing Volatile Markets with Large Amplitude for Short-term Trading As a short-term trader, we only need to capture a small segment of market volatility, and it doesn't have to be the overall trend, as long as the market volatility is fast and the amplitude is large. The faster the market volatility and the larger the amplitude, the easier it is to make profits. For the same 100-point profit, it may take only one day to achieve it when the volatility is fast and the amplitude is large, while it may take several days to achieve it when the volatility is slow and the amplitude is small, resulting in a much lower trading efficiency and different challenges to our mentality. Therefore, the amplitude of the product is the key to making profits in short-term trading. We need to selectively engage in short-term trading and not try to swallow all profits. There are two specific strategies to consider. Strategy One: Directly select high amplitude products for short-term trading. Different products have their own characteristics when operating in the market. Some products have fast volatility and large amplitude, while others have slow volatility and small amplitude. Before engaging in short-term trading, we must select the most suitable products. For example, in the same breakout trading opportunity, products with high volatility and larger amplitude can achieve greater profits more quickly. As traders, we all understand that the faster we can lock in profits, the more confident we feel. Therefore, selecting the right products makes short-term trading easier. Moreover, if you choose a slow-moving product, your holding time will be longer, and your position may be occupied, which will reduce the utilization rate of your funds and affect the final profit. Short-term trading is about paying attention to details and maintaining a strong mindset, as even the smallest details can determine your success or failure. Therefore, do not be careless. FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD
Education
by Ice_and_Fire1
5
What is the golden stop-loss rule? For trades such as stocks, futures, or forex, stop loss is a part of the trade, and it only works for investors if there is a stop loss in each transaction and it is adhered to. Today, I bring you a 3:1 gold stop loss rule, hoping to help with your investments. Stop loss is a way to minimize losses in current market trades and is frequently mentioned. However, the essence of stop loss is not just setting a stop loss price. In particular, in markets such as forex and futures where long and short positions can be taken, too many stop losses will undoubtedly cause significant loss of capital. Market leaders use people's fear to cause repeated shocks, even unilateral rises or falls to trigger short-term traders' stop loss prices, and then quickly retract. The normal daily volatility of the stock market is also around 5%, so if your stop loss is set at 5%, won't it often be hit? This requires attention to two issues: first, judging the trend of the market, whether it is a volatile market or a clear trend market; second, setting a reasonable stop loss position. First of all, it's important to understand that the most notable characteristic of the trading market is volatility, and most of the time it's in a volatile trend, regardless of whether it's in a larger time frame or a shorter time frame. Therefore, the investment strategy for a volatile market should be the preferred strategy for short-term traders. Secondly, identifying the range of volatility is crucial. Find the highest and lowest prices in recent price fluctuations. After a sharp rise or fall in the market, a corrective wave will form between these highest and lowest prices, sometimes lasting a long time. For example, commonly seen patterns such as triangle consolidation or box consolidation require a longer period of time before forming a new breakthrough. As for what prices to choose as the range, it depends on your trading period, whether it's daily, weekly, 60-minute, or even minute-by-minute. By using price analysis to determine the operational cycle, you will find a clear pattern of fluctuation range. The stop-loss price for such fluctuations should be set outside the highest or lowest points, and smaller stop-loss or trailing stop-loss should not be used. When the price breaks through the highest point, it is necessary to observe its sustainability. In most cases, it will return to the range-bound area again. However, if the sustainability is strong, it continuously sets new highs, and trading volume continues to increase, a new trend can be determined, and the stop-loss can be changed to a trailing stop. Its price should be set at a price that falls more than one time period beyond the highest or lowest price, and there is no new high or low in three consecutive time periods. At this time, it can be judged that the trend has stopped and entered a range-bound market. For example, if the time period is a 5-minute candlestick chart, then the trailing stop should be set at a price formed by a relatively large 5-minute candlestick chart. But generally, it should not exceed two candlestick chart prices, because beyond this price, the profit left is often very small. The 3:1 golden stop-loss rule in trading skills means that the profit of the take-profit point is three times the loss of the stop-loss point. For example, if you buy a stock and it falls by 7% or 8%, you should close your position in a timely manner. When your stock rises by 20% to 25%, you should consider selling some of it, and not be greedy and wait for it to rise further. Of course, the percentage values here can be changed according to the market situation, but the ratio should always be maintained at 3:1. Some investors may have doubts, what if I set a stop loss at 8% and then the stock rises significantly, even by more than 50%, after I sell it? It seems like a big mistake to sell it, and many investors may no longer believe in the 3:1 rule. Actually, the reason why we set a stop loss at 8% is to prevent it from falling by 10%, 20%, 25%, 40% or even more. You can think of it as a small insurance premium to ensure that an 8% loss doesn't turn into a 60% loss. Isn't it easier to handle that way? For most investors, an 8% loss is manageable, but a 60% loss is a burden that many cannot afford. In the market, human weaknesses will be reflected. When you hold a stock that falls, you will lose some capital, and you will fear that it will continue to fall, rather than hoping it will rebound to make up for previous losses. As a defensive measure, trading systems should still follow the 3:1 rule for stop losses. Finally, I wish everyone a happy investment journey.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Ice_and_Fire1
3
How to resolve being trapped in gold position. Given that no matter what market conditions may be, there will always be friends who find themselves trapped in a position, here are several methods for unlocking these positions: Long-term unlocking: If an investor has a clear view of the big trend (such as a bullish market), and their position is trapped in a small trend (a dip in the market), they can first stop the loss and close out the position. Then, they can enter the market again at a lower price to earn the price difference and obtain the profit from the big trend while reducing the risk of being liquidated by the small trend. Short-term unlocking: If the investor's judgment of the market is completely wrong, they should close out the position promptly to avoid suffering greater losses from the continuing one-sided trend. The longer a short-term investor holds a position in a one-sided market, the greater the loss. Light position unlocking (also suitable for large fund investors): It means adding more long positions as the market falls, using idle funds to lower the average cost, and waiting for the price to rebound. The advantage is that as long as the operation is correct, unlocking is possible as soon as there is a rebound, regardless of how deeply the position is trapped. Swing unlocking: This method is suitable for being trapped in various market stages, especially in volatile markets. It relies on the fluctuation of stock prices to unlock the position by using the price difference between high and low prices. The idea is to buy low and sell high, gradually reduce the cost, and minimize losses. The advantage is that the operation techniques are diverse and flexible, and can be adapted to different situations. If operated correctly, the unlocking speed is fast. The disadvantage is that it requires a high demand for personal time, energy, and skills, and frequent operations have a certain cost pressure. It requires professional guidance from those who have time, energy, and technical knowledge. Tips for trading gold: 1.Entry point: The entry point is crucial. Although gold and crude oil trading involve two modes, long and short, there are actually four modes: low long, low short, high long, and high short. In a one-sided trend, all four modes are feasible. However, in a volatile market, it is essential to avoid low short and high long positions. These positions are akin to chasing rising and falling markets, which often leads to losses. 2.Stop loss: Before placing a trade, determine the stop loss price and ensure it is reasonable. Immediately input the stop loss price after placing the order. The purpose of stop loss is to limit losses. Only by limiting small losses can you preserve your capital. Sometimes you need to let go to gain something. Do not assume that if you lose this time, you cannot earn it back. Manage investment risks carefully. 3.Position sizing: How you allocate your funds affects your ability to tolerate risks. Oversized positions or full positions can lead to increased losses and psychological pressure. Often, you cannot analyze market trends carefully, which can result in mistakes. 4.Take profit: Many traders struggle to take profit, causing profitable trades to turn into losses. In a one-sided trend, the push stop-loss method can be used to increase profit margins. Taking profit requires personal consideration of exit points. Not every trade needs to yield thousands or millions of dollars. Sometimes, in a volatile market, a profit of a few hundred dollars can accumulate over time. 5.Mindset: This is the most critical point and one that every investor must master. When you enter the market, it is undeniable that everyone is here to make money. However, your mindset determines how far you will go on the investment journey. The goal is to prefer small gains over losses, not to think about making more or less profit. Opportunities require us to seek them out ourselves. The moment you read this article, you have already been given an opportunity. Everyone in life experiences setbacks and failures, but the difference lies in our mindset when faced with adversity. Some people always regard setbacks as failures, which can undermine the courage to succeed. In investing, the key is to be on the right path and have the right direction. "A calm sea never made a skilled sailor," and there is no stable market environment. The purpose of investing is to make money! A clear mind is more important than a clever mind in this market. A good habit is more practical than a skilled technique. Perseverance is long-lasting, and authenticity is eternal. This is true of anything we do. I hope my article can bring you benefits and smooth sailing on your investment journey. May my investment experience benefit investors, and with you and me, an ordinary person plus an ordinary person, may we have an extraordinary investment experience and insights. Be meticulous in life and ordinary in your work. May your investment journey be smooth sailing. If my article is helpful to you, please remember to like it. If you have other questions during your operations, you can follow my homepage↓↓↓ to conveniently get the information in the first time. FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1!
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by Ice_and_Fire1
1
After the collapse of SVB Silicon Valley Bank... The sequence of events leading up to the collapse of SVB Silicon Valley Bank is as follows: SVB Silicon Valley Bank was one of the top 20 banks in the United States, with over 40 years of operation and total assets of $211.8 billion as of the end of 2022. As its name suggests, the bank primarily served technology startups and employees of large companies in Silicon Valley, and was the bank with the most deposits in the area. On Thursday, March 9th, SVB Silicon Valley Bank announced a liquidity crisis. The stock price of its parent company, SVB Financial Group, plummeted by 60%, causing a sell-off in bank stocks and a simultaneous decline in the three major U.S. stock indices. As news of the crisis spread, more and more institutional and high-net-worth clients rushed to withdraw their funds, causing a bank run that fueled panic and accelerated the bank's bankruptcy process. In short, the bank's collapse was due to a combination of factors: taking in deposits at low interest rates, investing heavily in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), facing short-term liquidity constraints, selling MBS at a loss to stop the bleeding, and triggering a panic. The SVB Silicon Valley Bank incident is directly related to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and bank liquidity management. In response to the global pandemic in 2020, the Fed implemented unlimited quantitative easing (QE) and lowered interest rates to near 0%. Over the next two years, U.S. tech companies initiated a wave of share buybacks, and businesses took advantage of the low interest rates to raise large amounts of capital, which SVB absorbed in the form of deposits. The bank used a significant portion of these deposits to engage in relative value trades, primarily in various types of U.S. bonds. More than 65% of SVB's deposits were invested in MBS, which was normally a safe practice as long as the securities were held until maturity. However, the problem arose when SVB over-invested in MBS and the Fed began to shift towards raising interest rates. The Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes drastically changed the macroeconomic environment, pushing rates higher. Startups in Silicon Valley were no longer able to spend as lavishly, and there were more layoffs and closures. As interest rates rose, the interest paid to depositors also increased, putting pressure on the bank's short-term liquidity. SVB had to sell its MBS holdings to raise cash, but by this time, market rates had risen from 0% to nearly 5% for two-year yields, causing the value of assets to plummet. SVB sold $21 billion worth of assets at a loss of $1.8 billion. While SVB could have absorbed the loss of $1.8 billion, the bank still held more than $1 trillion in MBS, and a run on these securities could result in a loss of $15 billion, making SVB insolvent. Investors panicked in anticipation of this scenario. Event impact 1.SVB announces bankruptcy without warning. After panic spread, Silicon Valley Bank experienced a run on withdrawals of $420, causing an immediate liquidity crisis. The stock price of SVB Financial Group plummeted by 60% in a single day, crushing the management team's plan to sell stocks to save the company. The management team lost confidence and declared bankruptcy. Its stock price fell from $700 to $100 in just one year. 2.Chain reaction in stock and cryptocurrency markets. Investors fear that other banks may also be suffering from the negative impact of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes and high rates, similar to the SVB Silicon Valley Bank incident. The negative sentiment has spread to the US banking industry, which is a core asset of the US stock market. The sell-off of bank stocks is a drag on the US stock market as a whole. At the same time, concerns about financing and liquidity for large tech companies have surfaced. This event also affected the cryptocurrency market. It is difficult to say that there is no relationship between SVB Silicon Valley Bank and the cryptocurrency industry. Circle, the issuer of the stablecoin USDC, has announced that $3.3 billion in cash is deposited in Silicon Valley Bank, which accounts for approximately 8% of the USDC's $40 billion scale. For cryptocurrency companies that have not yet made an announcement, when will they collapse? Market reaction Currently, the SVB Silicon Valley Bank incident has mainly affected the US stock and cryptocurrency markets, with negative market sentiment. The general decline in US bank stocks dragged down the three major US stock indices, with particular attention paid to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow Jones has been in a four-month consolidation phase in the 32,500-34,500 range, with a possible "double top" formation. This event has become the most critical factor in the Dow Jones' downward breakthrough. "The longer the accumulation, the faster the release." Going forward, attention should be paid to the Dow Jones' oscillating downward trend, with a target pointing towards the key level of 30,000. Bitcoin prices fell below support at 22,000, but have since returned to above 20,000. In the short term, it is still necessary to closely monitor this support level. If the support is confirmed to be effective, the target will be 22,000. If the 20,000 support line is breached, it will return to a weak consolidation below 20,000, marking the end of the token's rebound. There is a possibility of further breaking through the new low of 18,000. As the largest bankruptcy case in the US financial industry since the 2008 financial crisis, this event is not yet sufficient to cause systemic risk in the US financial industry, but local risk developments need to be monitored. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDTPERP TVC:DJI
Short
by Ice_and_Fire1
1
judgment of technical indicators and application skills1. Simple judgment of support and resistance: Support and resistance levels are the points in the chart that are subjected to continuous upward or downward pressure.The support level is usually the lowest point in all chart patterns (hourly, weekly, or annual), while the resistance level is the highest point (peak)in the chart.When these points show a downward trend, they are recognized as support and resistance.The best time to buy/sell is near the support/resistance level that is not easy to break.Once these levels are broken, they tend to become reverse obstacles.Therefore, in an uptrend market, the broken resistance level may become support for the upward trend; however, in a downtrend market, once the support level is broken, it will turn into resistance. 2. Understanding of lines and channels: Trend lines are a simple and practical tool in identifying the direction of market trends.The upward straight line is formed by at least two consecutive low points connected.Naturally, the second point must be higher than the first point.The extension of a straight line helps determine the path along which the market will move.Upward trend is a specific method used to identify support lines/levels.On the contrary, the downward line is drawn by connecting two or more points.The variability of trading lines is to some extent related to the number of connection points.However, it is worth mentioning that each point does not have to be too close.A channel is defined as an upward trend line parallel to the corresponding downward trend line.Two lines can represent price upward, downward, or horizontal corridors.The common attribute of a channel that supports the connection point of a trend line should be between the two connection points of its reverse line. 3. Understanding and understanding of the average line: If you believe in the creed of "trend is your friend" in technical analysis, then the moving average will benefit you a lot.The moving average shows the average price at a specific time in a specific period.They are called "moves" because they are measured at the same time and reflect the latest average. One of the shortcomings of moving averages is that they lag behind the market, so they are not necessarily a sign of a trend shift.To solve this problem, using a shorter period moving average of 5 or 10 days will better reflect recent price movements than a 40 or 200-day moving average.Alternatively, the moving average can also be used by combining two average lines of different time spans.Regardless of the use of 5 and 10-day moving averages, or 40- and 200-day moving averages, buy signals are usually detected when the shorter-term average crosses the longer-term average upward.In contrast, a sell signal will be prompted when the shorter-term average crosses the longer-term average downwards. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Blessed_V
XAUUSD: Important data will be released next week On Friday (March 10th), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the US added 311,000 non-farm jobs in February, lower than the revised previous value of 504,000, but much higher than the expected 205,000. The unemployment rate in February rose to 3.6%, higher than the expected and previous value of 3.4%. The average hourly earnings in February increased by 4.62% YoY, lower than the expected 4.7% but higher than the previous value of 4.40%. Although the February non-farm job growth was much higher than expected, the rising unemployment rate and slowing wage growth have tempered the market's expectations of a 50 basis point rate hike at the March Fed meeting. Meanwhile, the market's pricing of terminal Fed rates has dropped sharply, and expectations of a rate cut by the end of the year have resurfaced. As the market cools on the Fed's rate hike expectations, the US dollar index fell 0.61% to 104.64 on Friday, 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields plummeted by 28 basis points to 4.59% and 21 basis points to 3.70%, respectively, and gold prices surged nearly $40 to $1,867 per ounce after a sharp drop of $33 on Tuesday. Overall, the February non-farm report still shows that the US labor market remains strong, but some data is beginning to show signs of cooling. Against the backdrop of high interest rates in over 40 years, the market has reacted very sensitively, with expectations of Fed rate prospects quickly weakening, the US dollar and US Treasury yields plummeting, and driving gold prices soaring. The short-term direction of gold prices still depends on the US economic data situation. The US February CPI report, to be released next Tuesday (March 14th), is particularly important. If core inflation or detailed data shows signs of a decline in inflation, it may push the US dollar and US Treasury yields further lower, thereby boosting gold prices. If the data continues to show sticky inflation, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may not decline as quickly, which could put some pressure on the rise in gold prices. Due to the release of non-farm job data and the unemployment rate on Friday, XAUUSD surged significantly, breaking through the key resistance level of 1857, and the overall trend is leaning towards bullish. However, whether it can successfully stabilize still requires further waiting for data releases. Currently, there is a need for a technical correction in the market, so do not be overly bullish. I will continue to monitor the release of CPI data and provide specific operational strategies at that time. Please stay tuned.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by FlashTrades_
The trend of gold alternates between long and short, and the non Emotionless; no preset position; strict stop loss and win win; absolute discipline; capital and risk control; the market will tell you how to operate, and will not leave you behind. Earn unknowingly and unknowingly benefits. After the sharp fall of gold, there is a V-shaped reversal, and the market sentiment is chaotic. At present, it can only be said that the impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to be limited, otherwise the decline cannot be stopped abruptly. Today is another heavy non-farm payroll, waiting for the market s Choice. For gold operation, it is recommended to buy at 1827 in the short term, risk control at 1823, and the target is 1836~1840. Gold sees a rebound for several reasons: 1. The V-shaped reversal of gold yesterday, the market once again fell into a range-bound trend. At present, there is still room for the short-term to take advantage of the trend, but at night, we need to wait for the final decision on non-agricultural issues. 2. According to my personal analysis, whether the second wave C has started, or whether the rebound of the second wave B has not yet completed, the above two questions need to wait for today's data to determine. 3. The intraday pressure is 1840~1847, and the support is 1829~1826. Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write in the comments. I will be happy 👩‍💻
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Crazylambboy
Non-farm payrolls data is about to bearish the gold market!Today, the U.S. February quarter-adjusted non-farm payrolls data will be released. Everyone knows that this data will play a key role in the gold market, because the performance of non-farm payrolls will directly affect the fundamental sentiment, which will determine the direction of the gold market in a short period of time.Does the non-farm payrolls data to be released today benefit the gold market or suppress the gold market?Let us make a bold prediction. On Wednesday, the announced value of ADP employment in the United States in February was 242,000, the previous value was 119,000, and the forecast value was 200,000, while the actual announced value of 242,000 was much higher than the previous value and the forecast value. To a certain extent, it shows that the U.S. economy is strong and supports the dollar, thereby suppressing the gold market. On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish speech suppressed the gold market. However, after Fed Chairman Powell mentioned on Wednesday that the rate of interest rate increases in March depends on the data, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States released on Thursday was 210,000, higher than the previous value of 190,000 and the forecast value of 195,000, reflecting that the tight job market in the United States has still not eased, causing the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March to cool down, US bond yields fell sharply, and the dollar was dragged down, which benefited the gold market. And today's non-farm payrolls data show that the market expects the number of new jobs to be 205,000, compared with the previous value of 517,000. Judging from the ADP data guidance, the non-farm payrolls data show that the market expects the number of new jobs to be higher than the expected value of 205,000, and the number of initial jobless claims in February remained at a comparable level. Although the number of people applying for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week was as high as 210,000, overall, the number of new jobs in the month will not have much impact, so I think the non-farm payrolls released today will be higher than the expectation of 205,000, thereby suppressing the gold market. It should also be noted that the position of SPDR, the world's largest gold ETF, decreased by 3.47 tons to 903.15 tons on Thursday, a new low since the end of January 2020, suggesting that institutional and professional investors are still inclined to bearish the gold market. It can also be seen from the trend of gold. Although gold has recorded a strong rise in the short term, the strong pressure above still exists. Therefore, the early rise of gold is most likely to be to prepare for non-farm payrolls data and reserve room for the decline of the gold market.Then everyone thinks that the non-farm payrolls data to be released today will benefit the gold market or suppress the gold market?Everyone is welcome to come and discuss. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Blessed_V
3
Gold still has downside potential.Do not be deluded into thinking that every transaction will be perfect. Profits and losses need to be balanced, gains and losses need to be felt. Investing in the market is like traveling, always in a hurry, with so much confusion and hesitation. Only by calming down can we dispel the clouds that obscure our vision and quietly enjoy a cup of tea, and only then will we discover that many opportunities are right in front of us. Yesterday, the gold price rebounded and briefly approached $1828.70 per ounce before falling back and returning to a corrective bearish trend. As shown in the chart, the gold price fluctuates within the bearish channel, and is currently waiting for the price to drop to the next target of $1788.20 per ounce. From the 4-hour chart, the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) has formed bearish pressure, which supports the expected downward trend of the gold price. If the price falls below $1788.20 per ounce, the next target for the gold price is $1747.70 per ounce. On the other hand, we should point out that if the gold price rebounds and breaks through $1828.70 per ounce and $1843.70 per ounce, this will stop the bearish trend and push the gold price to start a recovery attempt, with the first test being in the $1878.80 per ounce area. Currently, the short-term expected trend for the gold price is bearish. The market is constantly changing, so it is important to stay informed. You can click the rocket to stay updated on any developments.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Navigation-h
Can gold still rally? In trading, we may have short-term profit goals, but long-term goals are built on the foundation of short-term profits. Without short-term profits, long-term goals are meaningless. Therefore, we need to balance short-term and long-term goals to achieve steady and sustained profitability. After Powell's speech, gold continued its downward trend and hit a one-week low around $1809. The question of whether it will continue to rise is a concern for many traders. I think there is an opportunity. First, the 50-basis-point rate hike in March is not set in stone. It is just a change in expectations. As Powell said, we need to pay attention to data, especially this Friday's non-farm payroll report. If employment data is weak on Friday, it does not support the Fed's continued high-intensity rate hikes. At that time, the expectation of a 50-basis-point rate hike will also cool down, and the gold price will rise accordingly. Secondly, from a medium to long-term perspective, I am still optimistic, because after multiple 50-basis-point rate hikes, the Fed's terminal interest rate is relatively high now, and it should be difficult to continue to raise rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the big cycle will gradually slow down the rate hikes. Overall, I think there is no need to be too pessimistic. Short-term adjustments will only make subsequent rebounds more powerful. There are many events this week, and the probability of continued volatility is high. It is expected that gold will begin to rebound next week. For short-term trading strategies this week, we should first look at the support level of $1809 below, with the first target level of $1845 and the second target level of $1860. I will update the article with detailed price levels and trading directions based on the market situation. I also welcome everyone to express their opinions. Follow me to make trading simpler! FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1!
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Ice_and_Fire1
1
GOLD: Two possibilities for a declineTolerance is not weakness or submission, but rather the ability to understand others' difficulties, make up for their shortcomings, promote their strengths, and forgive their mistakes without jealousy, belittlement, mockery, or blame. Tolerance is about affirming oneself while recognizing others, and it is a state of treating life and others with kindness. Behind tolerance lies love and strength. Tolerance is the highest level of cultivation in life. Yesterday, Powell's speech directly increased the probability of a 50 basis points rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in March to a high probability event. This result should not come as a surprise to anyone. I gave analysis and predictions last Sunday and yesterday, both of which were correct in predicting the main direction. (Here is the specific analysis from last Sunday and this Tuesday. If you haven't seen it, you can click on the image for specific strategies.) Taking the hourly chart of gold as an example, after a sharp drop (or rise) in a single day, two common patterns are: 1. A certain proportion of rebound and then a significant new low 2. A small rebound directly leads to a new low, then a significant rebound, and finally a new low again. These are analysis perspectives. When it comes to trading, at the beginning, we will inevitably have the illusion of seizing the rebound space of 30 points first and then shorting it again at the high point. However, in the long run, this is not cost-effective. If we get it right, we can seize the rebound of 30 points. If we get it wrong, we may have a loss of 60 points directly with a new low. In the process, you may also increase your position, which will make the rhythm very messy. Therefore, from the perspective of correct trading, regardless of whether the final trend is to rebound first and then hit a new low or hit a new low first and then rebound, we need to enter the market at a certain height of rebound, requiring more patience and psychological expectation. Specifically, it means waiting for a rebound to around 1830 to short. In short, the current market direction is not clear enough, and we should wait and observe rather than take uncertain actions. We come to the market to make money, not to gamble, so we must have patience and self-control. Finally: If you agree with this point of view, please click the rocket to express your support. Your support is the motivation for my persistence, thank you everyone! COMEX:GC1! MCX:GOLD1! BIST:XAUUSD1!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by investmentMr-X
9
Gold: Trading like this today can lead to profits On the road to success, whether you take big strides or make small progress every day, as long as you persist, every step counts, and every drop of sweat is not in vain. Please believe that as long as you keep moving forward steadfastly, your goals will get closer and closer to you. Yesterday, gold was under pressure and oscillated within the range of 1809-1823, without breaking through the resistance of 1823-1825. In terms of trading, we completed three profit-taking transactions yesterday. As of now, the market is still oscillating around 1814, very similar to yesterday. Additionally, today is Thursday and the non-farm payroll data will be released tomorrow. It is highly likely that the market will continue to fluctuate within this range today, waiting for the impact of the data. Therefore, today we will focus on the support level of 1804-1809 and the resistance range of 1821-1825. Specific trading strategies: Buy near 1808-1813, take profit at 1820-1823 Sell short near 1823-1828, take profit at 1814-1809 If the market breaks through the resistance level of 1825 today, the target will be around 1831. If it falls below 1804, the target will be around 1800-1796 and 1785. I will continue to track market trends and share trading strategies in real time. Thank you for your attention and support. If you have any questions, please leave a message in the comments section. I will provide you with the most reliable solution with a sincere and responsible attitude to help you solve the problem! Wishing you a pleasant day!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by triumphing
1
What is the ultimate level of stop-loss in trading? For trading in stocks, futures, or forex, stop loss is a part of the trade. It only works effectively for investors if it is included and adhered to in every transaction. As we all know, stock investment requires three basic skills: stock selection, stop loss techniques, and profit-taking strategies. However, many investors do not pay enough attention to stop loss and profit-taking techniques, and ultimately regret not setting stop loss and profit-taking points. Today, we will introduce the highest level of stop loss techniques. First, the comprehensive stop loss method is the highest level of stop loss for stock investment. Therefore, when setting the stop loss point, the overall situation must be taken into account. There is no stop loss method that exists separately from the investor's overall operation. If the stock market develops beyond the investor's ability, it means that the stop loss measures must be implemented. Second, the highest level of stop loss is in the heart of the investor. When selling stocks, investors should not only rely on their eyes but also observe and analyze with their hearts. Many stock investors only believe in what they see when selling stocks. As a result, they often miss the selling opportunity when they finally realize the situation. Third, the stop loss method based on consolidation time. If an investor buys a stock with a heavy position, but the stock price does not rise much after buying, and it starts to move sideways after a period of time, it is important to note that if the consolidation time is too long, it means that the main force cannot use funds to boost the stock price. Fourth, stop loss based on real-time trends. If the main force of a stock has been washing the stock for some time and still has not controlled the stock when it is time to do so, it means that the main force has no intention of raising the stock price, and the future outlook is pessimistic. At this time, investors should take timely stop loss measures, otherwise, they will end up suffering losses. Fifth, stop loss based on trading volume. If an investor encounters a stock that is severely oversold, and many investors are trapped at a higher price, it is time to sell the stock. However, sometimes, observing the daily k-line chart, it is found that there has been a huge increase in trading volume in recent days. Note that this is a trap set by the main force to lure retail investors. In summary, the above is the relevant knowledge about stop loss techniques that we introduce to stock investors, hoping to help our friends in the investment field. FXOPEN:XAUUSD MCX:CRUDEOIL1! FX:EURUSD
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Ice_and_Fire1
GOLD: Bullish Trend Nearing End, Be Cautious of Bull Traps Next I am not God, not worthy of everyone's possession, and I am definitely not the US dollar, nor do I intend to let everyone have it. Aging is a compulsory course in life, while becoming mature is just an elective. When everyone is low-key, I choose to be high-profile, but I will never go off key. The road of investment is definitely not one-way, if one road doesn't work, you can learn to turn. Time passes day by day, never forget the original intention of coming to the market on the first day. We are not here to find a wife, not to fall in love with the market, and do not treat Janet Yellen's words as a judge. We came here for profit and interests, and while some may drop out or go astray, the amount of profit earned is definitely related to the success rate of followers standing with the team. Whether you find a good team or a bad group depends on whether you treat investment as a career leader or as a leader of bad things. People are products of their environment, things are classified, and people are grouped. It is understandable to not catch it the first time, but if you fail to catch it two or three times, you should reflect. If you catch the wolf's tail every time, you may lose your life because of it. At the beginning of this week, amid a significant increase in the US dollar index, non-US currencies as well as gold and silver hit their lows. Gold hit a low point at 1804 on Tuesday of this week and bounced back, with the highest closing price reaching around 1856 by Friday. The rebound was exactly $50. Technical analysis: GOLD daily chart Based on the Fibonacci retracement of the drop from 1959 to 1804, the 38.2% level is near 1863, and the 60-day moving average is around 1855. The 1863 level is also a resistance point, indicating that there is resistance in the 1855-1860 range. Once the 38.2% level is broken, the price may reach the 30-day moving average at 1870. In this situation, it is not recommended to pursue long positions. GOLD is likely in a tail-end trend, and it may fall back after a day of increase next week or even directly. GOLD 4-hour chart From the 4-hour chart, 1804 is clearly a wave of AB=CD trend. I have also drawn the final 100% target position of 1870, which is symmetrical to the analysis of the 60-day moving average position on the daily chart. In addition, the 61.8% resistance level is currently at 1855, which is also the reason for the caution in pursuing long positions. operating strategy Next week, it is recommended to sell short on rallies, and aggressive traders can enter the market at 1855-1863, while conservative traders can wait for 1870 to enter the market and sell short. COMEX:GC1! MCX:GOLD1! BIST:XAUUSD1!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by investmentMr-X
16
The Fed strengthened interest rate hikes, and gold fell to the g As long as we have the idea of making achievements, it is never too late, because 'success is not inversely proportional to age. 'There are many examples of this in life. As long as we have a starting point, time will always give us a reasonable explanation. The Fed Chairman’s tough speech ended the short-term rebound of gold. The next rate hike of 50 basis points and the possibility of continuous rate hikes in the later period made the market panic. Yesterday’s sharp drop in gold destroyed the rebound pattern. Now it seems that it will test the previous low. For gold operation, it is recommended to sell at 1818.50, risk control at 1822.50, and the target is 1810~1804~1786. Gold is bearish for several reasons: 1. The golden overcast appeared yesterday, and the bearish sentiment has not yet been fully released. 2. According to my personal analysis, Wave 2 C is currently on the way, and the low point in the previous period may not be guaranteed. Later, I will consider the support of the first round of rise in the previous period. 3. The intraday pressure is 1818~1823, and the support is 1804~1786. Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write in the comments. I will be happy 👩‍💻
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Crazylambboy
3
How to grasp the impact of news on GOLD? Here we will use the United States as an example since it is a major world economy with significant influence and weight. Point 1: Release of important data For instance, the release of US non-farm payroll (NFP), employment data (ADP), initial jobless claims, CPI, GDP, PMI, etc. all have varying degrees of impact on the price of gold. Often, the release of this important data will trigger fluctuations in gold prices. Generally speaking, when the US dollar rises, gold falls, and when the US dollar falls, gold rises. However, there may be synchronous situations, which are very rare. If this occurs, investors need to analyze and consider it carefully. For instance, the weakness of the US dollar often pushes up the price of gold, as the decline in the US dollar can allow investors who use non-US currencies as their base currency to buy cheaper gold with other currencies. It can also stimulate demand for gold, especially in the consumption of gold jewelry. Point 2: Speeches by some important officials For example, speeches by well-known officials such as those from the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury. Undoubtedly, speeches by officials from different countries are a significant factor influencing the trend of gold prices, but the impact of officials' positions, identities, and the content of their speeches on the gold market varies in magnitude. The above two points are a few of the news contents that have a significant impact on the price of gold. In addition, other economic data in the United States should also be noted as they all mutually influence and relate to each other. COMEX:GC1! BIST:XAUUSD1! MCX:GOLD1!
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by investmentMr-X
How to achieve stable and sustained profits. How to grasp the trend in this market? It is to follow the trend. When the trend comes, the invisible force is pushing you forward. To gain profit and income in the gold and foreign exchange markets, this is particularly important. What is the secret to making profits? The answer is simple and also the most overlooked and precious thing that is free, just like the air we breathe and the sunshine. What is the secret to making money? In fact, it is simple. Throw away all the news and fundamentals, return to rationality, and independently analyze and follow the trend. Trading is a trial-and-error process! In the continuous occurrence of errors, the main problem faced is the shrinking of funds and psychological torment. A trader must reduce the probability of making mistakes because your profit comes from other people's losses. That is to say, when someone makes a mistake, there will be profits for others to earn in the market. However, you cannot calculate or predict how many people will make mistakes in the next step, how big the mistakes will be, nor can you guarantee that you will always be on the correct side. Therefore, in trading, the only thing you can do is to try to make the time of your mistakes as short as possible. The rest is to wait for others to make mistakes, let's work hard together! In trading, we may have short-term profit goals, but long-term goals are based on short-term profits. Without short-term profits, long-term goals are meaningless. Therefore, we need to balance short-term and long-term goals to achieve stable and sustained profits. Pay attention to me and make trading simpler.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Ice_and_Fire1
The Seven Major Factors Affecting Gold.Firstly, the demand for gold commodities affects the price. In addition to its use as a daily decorative item, gold plays an important role in industry, occupying an irreplaceable position in industries such as dentistry, electronics, and others. As a hedge tool, the price of gold is influenced by demand, and the supply and demand relationship directly affects the price of gold. Changes in production will also affect the gold price, such as the demand for teeth in Japan and the demand for jewelry in India, both of which directly affect the monthly price trend of gold each year. Secondly, the gold output determines the supply-demand balance of gold. The production of gold-producing countries directly affects the supply-demand balance of gold. Currently, China has the largest gold production, followed by South Africa. Any unexpected event, such as strikes and other special situations, will have an impact on the gold price. Thirdly, international interest rates and exchange rates directly affect the gold price. Interest rates and exchange rates have a direct impact on the gold price, especially the trend of the US dollar. The international status of the US gold price directly determines the status of the country's international finance, and the price of the US dollar also directly affects the price of gold. As the US dollar, which also has investment functions like gold, it directly affects the gold price. If the investment trend of the US dollar is strong, gold investment will be relatively less, while the opposite is true for the US dollar in a weak investment market, where the role of gold as a reserve asset and a hedge will be stronger. Fourthly, inflation stimulates the gold price. When the consumer price index rises and inflation affects investments, gold is no exception. When the price fluctuation of a country is severe, and the inflation rate is high, and the price fluctuation is severe, people's panic will intensify. When purchasing power declines, people will worry about future security and choose to buy gold to hedge, which will cause the gold price to continue to rise. Although the current role of gold in fighting inflation is not as significant as before, high inflation will still stimulate the gold price. Fifthly, political situations such as wars can stimulate the gold price. Political instability promotes the rise of the gold price, and war causes a rise in commodity prices, leading to a rise in gold prices. Similarly, as a critical strategic material, the price of gold has a remarkable correlation with the price of oil. When the price of oil rises, the gold price rises as well. Conversely, when the price of oil falls, the gold price also falls. Sixth, as a safe-haven demand, gold is the first choice Due to the small total reserves, the price of gold is relatively stable, and because it has served as a currency, it is an excellent tool for hedging and hedging. As an important hedging tool, gold has strong political sensitivity. Jewelry in prosperous times, gold in troubled times, when the economy is in recession, investment will favor gold more, and it will also directly affect the price of gold. 7. Investors’ psychological expectations The psychological expectations of investors are an important factor affecting the price of gold, but they usually do not act alone. Instead, they often change in conjunction with the variations in the aforementioned factors, amplifying or reducing the expected value of gold and causing significant differences in its price. Following the footsteps of the market, respecting the market, and aweing the market is to follow the market Pay attention to me and you will discover that trading is so simple and enjoyable!
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by Ice_and_Fire1