Best Price Action Pattern For GOLD Trend Following Trading
This bullish pattern is very powerful .
Being spotted on a daily/4h/1h, any time frame, it will help you to accurately predict a strong bullish movement on Gold .
In this article, I will teach you to identify a buying volumes accumulation on Gold chart and as a bonus, I will show you how I predicted a recent bullish rally with this price action pattern.
The initial point of this pattern will be a completion point of a strong bullish impulse.
At some moment, the price finds a strong horizontal resistance, stops growing and retraces.
The second point of the pattern will be a completion of a retracement.
It should strictly be a higher low - it should be higher than the low of an initial bullish impulse.
After a retracement, the price should return to a horizontal resistance and set an equal high , that will be the third point of the pattern.
Then, the price should retrace AT LEAST one more time from a horizontal resistance and set a new higher low.
After that, the price should set one more equal high.
3 equal highs and 2 higher lows will compose a bullish accumulation pattern.
Please, note, that the price may easily set more equal highs and more consequent new higher lows and keep the pattern valid.
Above is the example of a bullish accumulation pattern on Gold on an hourly time frame. The price set 3 equal highs and 3 consequent higher lows.
This pattern will signify the weakness of sellers and the accumulation of buying volumes.
The point is that each consequent bearish price movement from a resistance is weaker than a previous one. It means that fewer sellers are selling from the resistance and more buyers start buying, not letting sellers go lower.
In our example, we can clearly see the consequent weakening, bearish price movements.
This pattern indicates a highly probable breakout attempt of the resistance. A candle close above that provides a strong bullish signal.
The broken resistance will turn into support and will provide a safe point to buy the market from.
In our example, the market broke the underlined horizontal resistance and closed above that. It indicates the completion of a bullish accumulation and a highly probable bullish trend continuation.
You can see that Gold retested a broken structure and then a strong bullish wave initiated.
In a strong bullish market that we currently contemplation on Gold, this bullish pattern will provide a lot of profitable trading opportunities.
No matter whether you are scalping, day trading or swing trading Gold, this bullish accumulation pattern will help you to predict long-term, mid-term and short-term bullish movements.
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How to Find Key Levels on Gold XAUUSD Chart Easily
In this short article, you will learn how to find powerful levels on a gold chart.
I will explain to you what is a key level, how to apply it in trading. We will discuss key levels and different time frames, valid and invalid key levels. I will share with you a lot of useful trading tips.
First, let's start with a definition of a key level.
Key level is a single important historic price level on the chart,
from where a significant price movement initiated.
Usually, key levels are based on the edges of candlestick wicks.
Look at Gold chart on a 4H time frame.
I underlined a key level. You can see how strong was a bullish reaction to that. The price tested that level, bounced up and formed a long wick.
Key levels that are above current prices will be called resistances .
We will assume that sellers are placing their selling orders there.
Above is the example of a key resistance on Gold on an hourly time frame.
The price tested 2479 level, dropped rapidly and formed a long wick.
From a key resistance level, a bearish movement is expected.
Key levels that are below current prices will be called supports.
We will assume that buyers are placing their buying orders there.
That is the example of a key support level on Gold chart on a daily.
From a key support level a bullish movement is expected.
Key levels that are lying close to each other will compose support and resistance clusters.
Look at 2 key support levels on Gold on a 4H time frame.
These 2 levels are lying very close to each other and compose a support cluster.
3 key resistance above will compose a resistance cluster on Gold on a daily time frame, because these levels lye close to each other.
With time, the market tends to break key levels.
If the price violated a key support level and closes below that, it turns into a resistance level.
Look at a breakout of key support on an hourly time frame on Gold chart.
After a candle close below that, the broken key level turned into resistance.
If the price violates a key resistance level and closes above that, it turns into a support level.
Above is a recently broken horizontal resistance on Gold on a 4H time frame. After a breakout, that key level turned into support.
Key levels tend to lose their significance with time.
Key level that is broken by the buyers and the sellers or vice versa loses the status of a key level.
The underlined level was a significant resistance in the past.
However, the market stopped respecting this level and it lost its importance.
Remember that you can find key levels on any time frame.
But key levels are not equal in their significance.
Key levels that are spotted on higher time frame will be stronger than key levels that are spotted on lower time frames.
On the chart on the left, I underlined key support and resistance levels on a daily time frame on Gold.
While on the right, I market key support and resistance levels on a 4H time frame.
Daily structures will be considered to be more significant structures.
Hence, the market reaction to such structures tend to be stronger.
In comparison to support and resistance areas,
key levels provide the safest points to look for a trading opportunity from.
Once you spotted a confirmation after a test of a key level,
simply set your stop loss below a support or above a resistance.
You will have a very good reward to risk ratio.
Key levels play a crucial role in technical analysis of Gold.
No matter whether you are day trader, scalper, swing trader or investor, key levels is the first thing that you should always start your analysis from.
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Gold Trading- How to Avoid false breaks- 3 simple tipsIf you’ve been trading long enough, you know the rush of seeing a big bullish breakout. Those massive green candles make it tempting to jump in immediately, fearing you might miss the move. But if you’ve experienced a few of these moves reversing sharply, you also know the sting of buying at the top.
False breakouts—when price appears to break out but quickly reverses—can be frustrating. You can’t avoid them entirely, but using a few smart strategies can help reduce the risk of getting caught on the wrong side of a trade. Let’s dive into key strategies for breakout trading, including buying dips in an uptrend and selling rallies in a downtrend.
1. Don’t “Chase” the Markets
When the market suddenly surges higher with multiple big bullish candles, the temptation to enter is strong. This move can make it feel like you’ll miss out if you don’t buy immediately. But in most cases, strong moves like this mean the market is likely due for a pullback. In an uptrend, these fast, high candles can often reverse or slow down, leaving those who bought at the high with losses.
Pro Tip: If you spot three or more large bullish candles in a row, it’s usually too late to enter. Waiting for a pullback (which we’ll discuss soon) is often the safer approach.
2. Trade with the Trend: Buy Dips in an Uptrend and Sell Rallies in a Downtrend
One of the most effective strategies for avoiding false breakouts is trading with the trend. Here’s the basic principle:
In an Uptrend: Buy dips. When the market is trending upward, buying during short-term pullbacks is often a better strategy than buying during strong rallies. This approach allows you to get in at a lower price, reducing the risk of buying at the high.
Example: Suppose the market is moving steadily upward but experiences brief pullbacks to a support level. This is an ideal opportunity to buy, as it aligns with the trend's direction without chasing after a breakout that could reverse.
In a Downtrend: Sell rallies. During a downtrend, the market will often move lower, but with periodic upswings. These rallies are temporary and typically followed by further downward moves. Selling during these rallies can help you align with the downtrend while avoiding the risk of a sudden reversal.
This buy-dip, sell-rally strategy aligns your trades with the overall market direction, minimizing the chances of getting caught in short-lived breakouts.
3. Look for a Buildup Before Entering a Breakout Trade
One key strategy to avoid false breakouts is waiting for a buildup near a key resistance or support level. A buildup is a tight consolidation (or a “squeeze”) pattern that suggests the market is coiling up energy to make a sustained move in one direction. Here’s how it helps:
Buildup at Resistance: If an uptrend is approaching a resistance level, a buildup (narrow price range) near that level often indicates strong buying pressure. It suggests that sellers are struggling to push prices lower, increasing the likelihood of a successful breakout above resistance.
Stop Loss Placement: If the price breaks out from a buildup, you can use the low of the buildup as a stop-loss point. This gives you a more favorable risk-to-reward ratio because if the breakout is genuine, it’s unlikely to fall below the buildup low.
Pro Tip: Patience is key. Wait for the buildup pattern to appear near resistance in an uptrend or support in a downtrend before taking a breakout trade. This approach is particularly useful when combined with buying dips in an uptrend or selling rallies in a downtrend.
Very recent example (yesterday):
Summary:
Strategies for Breakout Trading and Trend Alignment
To avoid getting caught in false breakouts, follow these steps:
- Don’t chase big moves after three or more bullish or bearish candles.
- Align with the trend by buying dips in uptrends and selling rallies in downtrends.
- Use buildup patterns to time your entries, placing stop losses below the buildup for better risk management.
By focusing on trend alignment, buildup patterns, and avoiding the urge to chase, you’ll find yourself in stronger positions and with greater control over your risk in the market. These strategies can help you catch trend-following breakouts without falling prey to the frequent traps that catch traders off guard.
3 Technical Analysis Tools to Identify Resistance Levels on GOLD
How to trade Gold when it is constantly setting new all-time highs?
When Gold is trading beyond historical levels, technical analysis can help you to identify the next potentially strong resistance levels.
In this article, I will teach you the only 3 technical analysis tools you need to find the next key resistances and predict future correctional movements on Gold chart.
Tool 1 - Trend Line
The first technical analysis tool that will help you to identify a potentially strong resistance is a trend line based on previous highs.
Simply analyze the previous historic highs and try to find a trend line that was respected by the market at least 3 times in the past.
It means that such a trend line should be based at least on 3 historic highs.
Look at that rising trend line on Gold on a daily time frame. It is based on 3 historic highs, and it can be a potentially strong resistance.
Tool 2 - Psychological Levels
The second technical analysis tool is psychological levels.
These levels are based on round, whole numbers.
In our example, the closest psychological level is 2500 level. This level is based on round numbers, it is a multiple of 500 and 100.
It can compose a potentially strong resistance cluster.
Tool 3 - Fibonacci Levels
The third technical analysis tool is Fibonacci extension and confluence.
In order to identify a potentially strong resistance with Fibonacci extension, you should identify at least 3 last bullish impulses/waves.
Above is the example of 3 significant impulse legs on Gold chart on a daily.
Draw Fibonacci Extension levels based on these 3 impulse legs.
Here are important Extension levels to consider:
-1.272
-1.414
- 1.618
Above, you can see how I draw Fibonacci Extension levels based on all the impulse legs that we identified.
Your task is to identify the point where the extension levels of 3 impulses match in one point. Such a point will be called confluence zone.
This confluence zone will be the next potentially strong resistance.
These 3 technical tools helped us to identify the resistances beyond all historical levels easily.
Remember that there is no 100% guarantee that all the resistances that we spotted will be respected by the market.
For that reason, you should strictly analyze a price action and a reaction of the price to these levels before you open a short trade.
Alternatively, remember that these resistances can be applied as the targets for long trades.
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Best Technical Analysis Strategies for Trading Gold
If you want to trade Gold, but you don't know what strategy to trade, I prepared for you the list of 4 simple and profitable gold trading strategies.
Please, note that my list includes the indicator, swing, price action and smart money strategies, so you will certainly find the one that suites you.
Also, all the strategies will be strictly structure based.
It means that no matter which strategy you choose, you should start your analysis with identification of key levels on a daily time frame.
Example of structure analysis on Gold.
1. Breakout trading on a daily time frame
With that approach, we will be aiming to catch swing moves.
Your bearish confirmation will be a bearish breakout - a daily candle close below a key support. A bearish continuation will be anticipated to the next closest daily support then.
Your bullish signal will be a bullish breakout of a key daily resistance.
Then you can buy aggressively or on a retest, expecting a bullish continuation to the next strong resistance.
In the example above, bearish breakout of a key daily support was a strong bearish signal that triggered a massive selloff.
This strategy is based only on a daily time frame analysis,
the next 3 strategies will be more sophisticated and involve multiple time frames analysis.
2. Price action confirmation strategy
With that approach, you should patiently wait for a test of one of the key structures that you spotted on a daily.
After that, you should monitor the reaction of the price to that on 4h/1h time frames.
Your signal to buy will be a formation of a bullish reversal price action pattern on a key support, while your bearish confirmation will be a bearish pattern on a key resistance.
Once you spotted a confirmation, you can anticipate a bullish/bearish movement, at least to the closest 4h structure.
In the example above, Gold tested a key daily support. The price formed a double bottom formation on that. Its neckline breakout was a strong bullish signal.
A bullish movement initiated to the closest 4H resistance then.
3. Moving average confirmation strategy
For that method, you will need 2 moving averages: simple MA with 9 length and exponential MA with 20 length.
Once the market tests a key support, you should look for a crossover.
A simple MA should be above the exponential MA.
It will be your bullish signal.
After a test of a key resistance, look for an opposite crossover.
A simple MA should be below the exponential MA.
It will give you a strong signal to sell.
Here is how the MA crossover would help you to predict a bullish movement on Gold on an hourly time frame.
4. Smart money confirmation strategy
With that approach, you should look for a break of key daily structure on 4h/1h time frames.
After a violation of a key support, you should look for a bullish imbalance so that the price should return above the broken structure. That will be your signal to buy.
After a violation of a key resistance, look for a bearish imbalance. The price should come back below a broken structure. It will be your signal to sell.
After a test and a violation of a key daily resistance, Gold formed a bearish imbalance on a 4H time frame. It was a strong bearish signal.
All these strategies are very efficient. However, they will work after you learn to correctly identify key structures.
Let me know in a comment section which strategy do you prefer.
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