High Volatility Trade Management & Risk Management Strategies
With a current geopolitical uncertainty and the election of Trump, forex market and gold experience wild price fluctuations. These unpredictable swings can result in substantial losses, particularly for the beginners in trading.
In this article, I will share with you the essential trade management and risk management tips for dealing with extreme volatility in trading.
I will reveal proven strategies and techniques for avoiding losses and unexpected risks.
1. First and foremost, pay attention to the news.
The main driver of high volatility on the markets are the news , especially the bad ones.
In normal times, high impact news events are relatively rare, while in times of uncertainty their frequency increases dramatically.
Such news may easily invalidate the best technical analysis setup: any powerful support or resistance level, strong price action or candle stick pattern can be easily overturned by the fundamentals.
Trump tariffs threats against Canada made USDCAD rise by 400 pips rapidly, while the change of rhetoric quickly returned the prices to previous levels.
One you hold an active trade, monitor the news. If you see the impactful news that may affect the pair or instrument that you trade, immediately protect your position, moving stop loss to entry.
It will help you avoid losses if the market starts going against you.
2. Even constantly monitoring the news, you will not be able to protect yourself from all the surprising movements.
Sometimes your trades will quickly be closed in a loss.
Therefore, I strictly recommend measure a lot size for every trade that you take. Make sure that you risk no more than 1% of your trading account per trade. That will help you to minimize losses cased by the impactful, uncertain events.
3. The impactful events may also occur on weekend, while Forex market is closed. Such incidents can be the cause of huge gap openings.
If you hold an active trading position over the weekend, remember that your entire account can be easily blown with such gaps.
Imagine that you decided to buy EURUSD on Friday during the NY session and keep holding the position over the weekend.
A huge gap down opening would make you face huge losses, opening the market 125 pips below the entry level.
By the way, this day I received a dozen of messages from my followers that their accounts were blown with the opening gaps.
4. If you see a significant price movement caused by some events, and you did not manage to catch it, let it go.
Jumping in such movements is very risky because quite ofter correctional movements will follow quickly.
It will be much safer and better to try to be involved in a trend continuation after a pullback.
Look what happened with Gold when Trump began a new trade war.
The price started to grow rapidly. However, even during such a sentiment, 500 pips pullback occurred, giving patient traders a safe entry point for the trade.
5. In the midst of geopolitical tensions and trade wars, the markets tend to rally or fall for the extended time periods.
The best trading strategies to use to get maximum from such movements are trend-following strategies.
While reversal, counter-trend trading might be extremely risky, providing a lot of false signals.
Trend trading may bring extraordinary profits.
These trading tips, risk management and trade management strategies and secrets are tailored for cutting and avoiding losses during dark times. Empower your strategy with this useful knowledge and good luck to you in trading high volatility on Gold and Forex.
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How to Identify a Bearish Reversal in Gold Trading
In this article, I will explain to you 4 efficient strategies to identify a bearish reversal with technical analysis in Gold trading.
You will learn price action, SMC and technical indicator strong bearish signals.
First, let me remind you that different bearish signals may indicate a different magnitude and a degree of a potential reversal.
While some signals will be reliable for predicting short term reversals, some will be more accurate in projecting long-term ones.
One more thing to note is that one of the best time frames for bearish reversal confirmations on Gold is the daily . So, all the cases that will be explained will be on a daily time frame strictly.
XAUUSD Bearish Reversal Signal 1 - Bearish Price Action Pattern.
One of the perfect indicators of the overbought state of a bullish trend on Gold is bearish price action patterns.
I am talking about classic horizontal neckline based patterns like head & shoulders, inverted cup & handle, double/triple top and descending triangle.
Typically, these patterns leave early bearish clues and help to predict a coming downturn movement.
A strong bearish signal is a breakout of a horizontal neckline of the pattern and a candle close below.
The price may continue falling at least to the next key support then.
Above is the example of a head and shoulders pattern on Gold, on a daily. Its formation was the evidence of the overheated market. Bearish breakout of its neckline confirmed that, and the price continued falling.
Bearish Reversal Signal 2 - Rising Channel Breakout.
When the market is trading in a healthy bullish trend, it usually starts moving with the boundaries of a rising channel.
It can be the expanding, parallel or contracting channel.
Its support will represent a strong vertical structure, from where new bullish waves will initiate after corrections.
Its breakout will quite accurately indicate a change of a market sentiment and a highly probable bearish reversal.
Look at this rising parallel channel on Gold chart on a daily. The market was respecting its boundaries for more than 3 months.
A bearish violation of its support was an accurate bearish signal that triggered a strong bearish movement.
Bearish Reversal Signal 3 - Change of Character & Bearish Price Action.
One of the main characteristics of a bullish trend is the tendency of the market to set new higher highs and higher lows. Each final high of each bullish impulse is always higher than the previous. Each final low of each bearish movement is also higher than the previous.
In such a price action, the level of the last higher low is a very significant point.
The violation of that and a formation of a new low is an important event that is called Change of Character CHoCH.
It signifies the violation of a current bullish trend.
After that, one should pay attention to a consequent price action, because CHoCH can easily turn into just an extended correctional movement.
If the market sets a lower high and a new lower low then, it will confirm the start of a new bearish trend.
That is the example of a confirmed Change of Character on Gold on a daily. To validate the start of a new bearish trend, we should let the price set a lower high and a form a bearish impulse with a new lower low.
Bearish Reversal Signal 4 - Death Cross.
Death cross is a strong long-term bearish reversal signal that is based on a crossover of 2 moving averages.
On a daily time frame, it is usually based on a combination of 2 Simple Moving Averages: one with 50 length and one with 200 length.
The signal is considered to be confirmed when a 50 length SMA crosses below 200 length SMA.
It is commonly believed that it signifies that the market enters a long-term bearish trend.
On the chart, I plotted 2 Moving Averages. When the blue one crosses below the orange one, a global bearish trend on Gold will be confirmed
The 4 bearish signals that we discussed will be useful for predicting short term, mid term and long term bearish reversals on Gold.
While price action patterns will indicate local bearish movements, Death Cross will confirm a global trend change.
Learn to recognize all the signals that we discussed to make more accurate trading and investing decisions.
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Best Price Action Pattern For GOLD Trend Following Trading
This bullish pattern is very powerful .
Being spotted on a daily/4h/1h, any time frame, it will help you to accurately predict a strong bullish movement on Gold .
In this article, I will teach you to identify a buying volumes accumulation on Gold chart and as a bonus, I will show you how I predicted a recent bullish rally with this price action pattern.
The initial point of this pattern will be a completion point of a strong bullish impulse.
At some moment, the price finds a strong horizontal resistance, stops growing and retraces.
The second point of the pattern will be a completion of a retracement.
It should strictly be a higher low - it should be higher than the low of an initial bullish impulse.
After a retracement, the price should return to a horizontal resistance and set an equal high , that will be the third point of the pattern.
Then, the price should retrace AT LEAST one more time from a horizontal resistance and set a new higher low.
After that, the price should set one more equal high.
3 equal highs and 2 higher lows will compose a bullish accumulation pattern.
Please, note, that the price may easily set more equal highs and more consequent new higher lows and keep the pattern valid.
Above is the example of a bullish accumulation pattern on Gold on an hourly time frame. The price set 3 equal highs and 3 consequent higher lows.
This pattern will signify the weakness of sellers and the accumulation of buying volumes.
The point is that each consequent bearish price movement from a resistance is weaker than a previous one. It means that fewer sellers are selling from the resistance and more buyers start buying, not letting sellers go lower.
In our example, we can clearly see the consequent weakening, bearish price movements.
This pattern indicates a highly probable breakout attempt of the resistance. A candle close above that provides a strong bullish signal.
The broken resistance will turn into support and will provide a safe point to buy the market from.
In our example, the market broke the underlined horizontal resistance and closed above that. It indicates the completion of a bullish accumulation and a highly probable bullish trend continuation.
You can see that Gold retested a broken structure and then a strong bullish wave initiated.
In a strong bullish market that we currently contemplation on Gold, this bullish pattern will provide a lot of profitable trading opportunities.
No matter whether you are scalping, day trading or swing trading Gold, this bullish accumulation pattern will help you to predict long-term, mid-term and short-term bullish movements.
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How to Find Key Levels on Gold XAUUSD Chart Easily
In this short article, you will learn how to find powerful levels on a gold chart.
I will explain to you what is a key level, how to apply it in trading. We will discuss key levels and different time frames, valid and invalid key levels. I will share with you a lot of useful trading tips.
First, let's start with a definition of a key level.
Key level is a single important historic price level on the chart,
from where a significant price movement initiated.
Usually, key levels are based on the edges of candlestick wicks.
Look at Gold chart on a 4H time frame.
I underlined a key level. You can see how strong was a bullish reaction to that. The price tested that level, bounced up and formed a long wick.
Key levels that are above current prices will be called resistances .
We will assume that sellers are placing their selling orders there.
Above is the example of a key resistance on Gold on an hourly time frame.
The price tested 2479 level, dropped rapidly and formed a long wick.
From a key resistance level, a bearish movement is expected.
Key levels that are below current prices will be called supports.
We will assume that buyers are placing their buying orders there.
That is the example of a key support level on Gold chart on a daily.
From a key support level a bullish movement is expected.
Key levels that are lying close to each other will compose support and resistance clusters.
Look at 2 key support levels on Gold on a 4H time frame.
These 2 levels are lying very close to each other and compose a support cluster.
3 key resistance above will compose a resistance cluster on Gold on a daily time frame, because these levels lye close to each other.
With time, the market tends to break key levels.
If the price violated a key support level and closes below that, it turns into a resistance level.
Look at a breakout of key support on an hourly time frame on Gold chart.
After a candle close below that, the broken key level turned into resistance.
If the price violates a key resistance level and closes above that, it turns into a support level.
Above is a recently broken horizontal resistance on Gold on a 4H time frame. After a breakout, that key level turned into support.
Key levels tend to lose their significance with time.
Key level that is broken by the buyers and the sellers or vice versa loses the status of a key level.
The underlined level was a significant resistance in the past.
However, the market stopped respecting this level and it lost its importance.
Remember that you can find key levels on any time frame.
But key levels are not equal in their significance.
Key levels that are spotted on higher time frame will be stronger than key levels that are spotted on lower time frames.
On the chart on the left, I underlined key support and resistance levels on a daily time frame on Gold.
While on the right, I market key support and resistance levels on a 4H time frame.
Daily structures will be considered to be more significant structures.
Hence, the market reaction to such structures tend to be stronger.
In comparison to support and resistance areas,
key levels provide the safest points to look for a trading opportunity from.
Once you spotted a confirmation after a test of a key level,
simply set your stop loss below a support or above a resistance.
You will have a very good reward to risk ratio.
Key levels play a crucial role in technical analysis of Gold.
No matter whether you are day trader, scalper, swing trader or investor, key levels is the first thing that you should always start your analysis from.
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