XAU/USD 18 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
Analysis remains the same as analysis dated 12 November 2024.
Price has printed both a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS) and a subsequent bearish Break of Structure (BOS), confirming the need for a pullback across all higher timeframes (HTFs).
Currently, price action remains in alignment with the broader pullback requirements.
Intraday Expectation
The expectation for the intraday session is that price will print a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) to signify the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. The positioning of this bullish CHoCH is indicated by the blue dotted line on the chart.
However, it is also possible that price could extend to a new low, bringing the CHoCH positioning much closer to the current price action, setting the stage for a potential bullish reversal signal.
Note:
Given the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold prices is anticipated to persist. Traders should exercise caution and remain vigilant in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
The prior intraday expectation was invalidated as price printed a bullish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), signaling a shift in internal order flow.
Following bullish iBOS, the next anticipated move is the printing of a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), which would indicate the initiation of a bearish pullback phase. This CHoCH positioning is marked by a blue dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
For today's session, we are looking for confirmation of a bearish pullback phase by price printing a bearish CHoCH. Bearish CHoCH positioning is marked with a blue dotted line
Alternative Scenario:
On the H4 timeframe, there are signs of a bullish pullback phase potentially developing, though there is no confirmation as of yet. In my view, the bullish momentum on the M15 timeframe is to assist the H4 timeframe in confirming its pullback phase.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish policy approach and rising geopolitical tensions, heightened volatility in Gold prices is expected to continue. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential whipsaws in price action.
M15 Chart:
Goldtradingstrategy
The opportunity to break 2500 has arrived
Last Friday's market was actually quite dull. Even with the support of retail data, I am not very interested in this data. I have never seen how much volatility it can cause to gold since I started the industry. In the end, it was only a high of 2577 and a low of 63. This volatility is not as good as the rapid decline of 2554. It is really embarrassing. It is obviously the market of Black Friday, but there has been no performance for two weeks. I have been looking forward to it in vain. The main reason is that I want to make another market with a drop of 40 US dollars on the same day. There is no way. I can't stop looking down just because there is no volatility, right? Just start again this week.
And I am not surprised at all by the performance of the opening gap. The market has been like this in recent weeks. It's nothing more than the difference in the size of the gap. Everyone knows the reason. Whether it is the market sensitivity after the election or the reaction after the interest rate cut, it is normal to jump. Fortunately, the gap is not big today. Although the volatility is large, it will not be very extreme.
Generally, when there is a jump market, I will tell you a few trading rules. This is my summary of many years of experience.
The bigger the gap, the faster the market fluctuates. Don't rush to see the gap filling, because you don't know whether it will rise or fall first. The most stable way is to wait for the first fluctuation. Take this gap as an example. It is strictly forbidden to go short directly to see the gap filling at the first time, because you don't know the first wave of action. If it really fills up the first time, then you can go long at the low point after the filling. On the contrary, it rebounds upward at the first time, then you look for high point pressure to see it fill the decline. Not to mention that this approach is 100% correct, but I usually operate the transaction in this way when facing a gap.
The characteristic of the gap market is that the initial fluctuation speed and amplitude are large. Don't make any chasing orders, let alone think that you will miss something. Moreover, if the first wave of gold fills down or falls a little, it is likely to rebound upwards, which is not friendly to my bearish perspective. On the contrary, the first upward movement is what makes me happy. I have already made a short order near 92, just to see it fill the gap 2565 later. At least 30 US dollars of space can be taken. Moreover, after the gap is filled, it is not impossible to look lower, but this should be the US market or tomorrow. It is known that the support of the low point of gold fluctuation is near 2555. I also need to see whether gold will spit back to this position.
What needs to be determined now is whether gold will start to adjust upward or turn to the adjustment downward mode. This is the only controversy in the market and the focus of long and short trading this week. What can be determined is that the last wave of emotional selling from 2790 to 2536 has ended. Will the second wave of adjustment of more than 250 US dollars occur? Where will it happen? How low can it fall after it happens?
I emphasize again that 2790 to 2536 is the same wave of decline, because the speed and scale are almost the same, there is no need to separate the decline of more than 200 US dollars. I originally thought that the bottom this time would be the same as the last time at 2590. Note that the sideways fluctuation at the upper end of the triangle below is the same as the rhythm of last Friday. The tail did not touch the previous low of 2643, and it has already started a weak decline. This is why I will go short near 2570 on Friday. The bifurcation line also has the pressure guidance of this point, and it has not touched the top and bottom conversion position of 2590. Then let's see the continued decline. It has been falling for a week, right? You want me to see a big reversal on the last day, that's impossible.
The direct surge in the morning was a bit unexpected to me, but it is not unacceptable, because the overall downward structure is still there, that is, the equidistant channel. I told members before that if there is a rise and pullback, we can still seek another high-altitude opportunity below 2600. Don’t you all dislike the feeling of being bearish at low levels? If this is the case, you will have the opportunity to trade at a high altitude. Look, it is here, perfect. The previous top and bottom conversion position is 92. It is possible to do it without saying much. Secondly, there is a retracement of 2602 above. The cost performance of bearish trading is very high. At the same time, you can also see the gap filling 2565 at the first time.
Of course, since it can fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle, the possibility of bottoming out cannot be ruled out. This is something that bulls need to study and recognize. I will not describe it too much here. Your trading position must be firm. And confirm that the upward position of gold adjustment is 2620 and 2643 above. I will naturally deal with it at that time. I don’t know what kind of falling pattern it will be if it really falls again this time. Its journey will definitely not be smooth sailing according to conventional fluctuations. For example, 2555 or 2530 below are also prices that need to be challenged. Whether it is repeated or oscillating, as long as it goes down, I will definitely catch this wave of market. You can also see the price after the deep break, which is probably around 2480.
XAUUSD, 15-MINUTES TIMEFRAME CHARTXAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
XAUUSD touched the resistance level of 2,594.00
General outlook
XAUUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hour . The pair moved up the resistance level of 2,594.00.
Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a sell order at 2,590.
Set your stop loss at 2,598. below the previous low ($8.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,560. ($30.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2574 and a gap below at 2551. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2574
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2574 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2599
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2599 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2622
BEARISH TARGETS
2551
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2551 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2525
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2525 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
2638
SWING RANGE
2506 - 2484
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price lay between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2570 and a gap below at 2519, as weighted Goldturns and will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2570
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2570 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2611
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2611 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2654
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2654 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2694
BEARISH TARGETS
2519
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2519 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
RETRACEMENT RANGE
2487 - 2450
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2450 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2411 - 2368
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD DAILY CHART UPDATEHey Everyone,
Please see our updated daily chart idea with updated weighted levels.
We are seeing price test a strong level of support at 2560 and ema5 cross and lock below this level will open the swing rage for a reaction below.
We also have a longer range weighted level resistance level above at 2629. A cross and lock above this level will confirm the range above.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up using our smaller timeframe ideas.
Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we look forward to drops like this, which allows us to continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups.
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
This is an update on the weekly chart idea we have been tracking for over a month now.
After smashing all our Bullish targets we are now seeing the well overdue correction into the retracement range. The channel top and the retracement range are good areas of support for a reaction.
We have a body close below the retracement range opening the swing range. However, ema5 cross and lock will further confirm and strengthen this. The new weekly candle this week will have an ema5 defacement to the top of the channel, so may see some correction above to re- attach.
We will track the movement down, inline with our plans to buy dips, using our smaller time-frames, keeping in mind the long range gaps for the future.
We are now seeing price break back inside the channel, and therefore will now track the movement down, inline with our plans to buy dips, using our smaller time-frames, keeping in mind the long range gaps for the future..
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD 17.11.2567Here is my outlook on gold for the upcoming week and beyond regarding swing trading:
Due to the break of the main trend, the sentiment for a downtrend has emerged. With a wide price movement range, there is a possibility that the chart will move as illustrated.
I hope this analysis is helpful for everyone.
You can follow and support me on various social media platforms by searching for Invest Research .
GOLD - Potential sell !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on GOLD.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. My point of interest is imbalance filled and rejection from bearish OB around 2600.
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DOW JONES - Idea for a long position !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on DOW JONES.
Technical analysis: Here we have the same scenario as on S&P500, we are bullish, so I expect a long position if price fills the imbalance lower and then rejects from trendline.
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XAUUSD:15/11 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2627, support below 2500
Four-hour resistance 2581, support below 2535
Gold operation suggestions: Yesterday, gold technically fell and then rose, and the deep V rebound rebounded strongly. The price of the Asian and European sessions was under pressure at the 2580 mark and fell rapidly. The European session further retreated downward and broke through the 2570 mark to reach 2560 and fell into sideways fluctuations. Before the US session, it quickly fell down and broke through the 2540 mark to reach 2536 and stabilized, and finally formed a deep V rebound, breaking through and standing on the 2570 mark to reach 2578 and fell under pressure to close. The short-term decline in gold prices may have bottomed out at 2636.
Today, the short-term support of 2550-2553 is concerned below, and the short-term pressure above is concerned around 2588-90. The overall support for the day is to sell high and buy low in the 2550-2590 area. At present, the decline of gold has almost reached a certain level, and it is likely to start to fluctuate and consolidate. In the short term, the gold price will stabilize at the 2536 mark and fluctuate upward to repair the previous decline. Do not short at will at a low price.
BUY:2550near SL:2545
SELL:2581near SL:2585
The strategy only provides trading directions.
Since it is not a real-time trading guide, please use a small SL to test the signal.
GOLD SHORT next weekhello traders
i think gold going short soon actually earlier monday will be long to 2431 then on late london sesion after it reach its destination its going short.
so we can short after price action confirmation from 2431-2441
first Tp: 2360
second tp: 2311
stop loss: depend on price ation entrance not bigger than2450- 2470
after its rest in last resrvation TP2 it will be seeking for its Long movement up.
Gold XAUUSD How Long This Correction Will Continue! Read CaptionOANDA:XAUUSD forms a retreat and tests 2577 following a fake breakdown of 2546. After such a severe fall, it is a very reasonable response. The dollar is growing more quickly, and the fundamental context is still negative.
China's ambiguous economic figures heightened economic worries. Powell stated that there is no need to lower interest rates right now because the economy is still expanding, the job market is strong, and inflation is still above the 2% target, but this uncertainty regarding future rate reduction by the US Federal Reserve is still weighing on the markets.
Now, everyone's eyes are on the crucial retail sales data.
Technically, it is important to watch the resistance at 2589 and the 0.5-0.7 fibo. Below these areas, a false breakdown and consolidation could lead to a collapse.
Resistance levels: 2578, 2592, 2604.
Support levels: 2543, 2532, 2504
Key : 2565
OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is currently indicating that the pullback up might be a little drawn out. Before the news, MM will probably aim for liquidity (above these levels). Bears may become active in response to a false breakout, which would only boost sales.
However, the likelihood of a breakdown and decline will rise if there is a bounce from 0.5 fibo and a smooth recovery to 2546.
Gold ushered in continued decline
Yesterday, the gold price fluctuated around the 2560 dollar mark. Is a drop important or not? The current range of gold is still 2580-2535. 2580 is also the watershed of strength and weakness. At the same time, if it falls below 2535, the probability of gold falling to 2500 will increase; if it breaks through 2580 and stabilizes, the probability of gold retesting the pressure will increase. Therefore, the general direction today can only look at this range for the time being.
Today, the gold price still has the risk of continuing to fall. "Bottom fishing" seems to have become a derogatory term in the market. Any currency has lost this function. Short selling has become the only choice and the best direction. If gold loses the support of 2535, it will fall by another 50 US dollars. Today's high and low point area has become the key to the long-short game.
Gold point: 2568-70 short orders continue to be held in the early trading. Those who have not entered the market can enter the market directly if the rebound does not break 2565. Let's look at the decline today! The target is the 2543-2535 line!
Gold rebounded strongly, short-term bearish, long-term bullishGold bottomed out and rebounded yesterday, and rose sharply in the late trading, approaching the resistance of 2578! The daily MA5 moving average moved down to 2583, the four-hour MA10 moving average was 2570, and the lower track of the Bollinger band was 2588. The top and bottom conversion position of the previous low was 2590, and the hourly RSI indicator returned to the central axis. The upper track of the Bollinger band closed at 2580 and the lower track was 2545. The intraday trading range oscillation idea layout, short-term participation in short-selling, long-term bullish.
The gold 1-hour moving average continued to cross the short arrangement, and the gold moving average resistance now moved down to around 2580. Gold began to fall under pressure at 2578 in the US market yesterday. Today, the Asian market rebounded to around 2580 and can enter the market.
First support: 2556, second support: 2545, third support: 2530
First resistance: 2580, second resistance: 2590, third resistance: 2605
Trading strategy:
You can sell high and buy low near the first resistance 2556 and the first support 2580. If the NY session fluctuates greatly, pay attention to the second resistance and support
Gold Price Analysis For Next Move? Read CaptionOANDA:XAUUSD dropped from 2790 and currently trading on 2557 it will consolidate here from range of 2546-2557 and will make a rectangle pattern , once rectangle constructed it will breakout the rectangle and give the targets given in chart.
Gold have just completed its Elliott 4th Wave in Day time frame and also completed 5th impulsive wave in short time from from H1 to 5min now, now it will do corrective move in short term and 5th impulsive move in high time frame
GOLD MONTHLY CHART LONG TERM/RANGE ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
This is the monthly chart idea for our long term/range analysis, which we shared in September. We have now completed two bull targets and stated both months left a big detachment to ema5 which needed a well overdue correction.
This monthly chart detachment is now complete, as highlighted by the circle on the chart. This now provided the support and bounce allowing us to buy dips inline with our plans.
Our 1H and 4h Charts have completed all bearish targets and now broken through all support. However with the breakout below, each of our weighted levels gave the 30 to 40 pip bounces just like we said.
This area is a strong level of support with ema5 providing dynamic support now for a bounce. Each of the lower Goldturn levels below are likely to give re-actional bounces just like our shorter time frame ideas.
However, we will keep in mind the channel top that may require a support test and will use all support structures across all our multi time frame chart ideas to buy dips also keeping in mind our long term gap above. Short term we may look bearish but looking at the monthly chart allows you to see the bigger picture the overall long term Bullish trend.
We will update our Multi timeframe route map with updated levels on Sunday.
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX