Gold has dropped dramatically,what is the opportunity to buy nowGold prices fell sharply in today's trading session, slipping from the $2,300/ounce level on concerns about higher, longer-term US interest rates ahead of this week's US Federal Reserve (FED) meeting. .
Weakening safe haven demand is also exerting pressure, especially as recent reports suggest ceasefire talks have resumed between Israel and Hamas. This makes gold even more vulnerable to interest rate risks.
But despite recent declines, gold prices still traded up more than 4% in April, extending the impressive gains seen in March.
The focus is now on the Fed meeting this weekend, where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates steady. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to take a more hawkish stance on interest rates, especially after a series of hot inflation indicators.
Signs of persistent inflation suggest traders have largely underestimated expectations for a near-term rate cut by the Fed. The central bank is currently only expected to cut interest rates in September or the fourth quarter, if at all this year.
Higher interest rates for longer periods bode poorly for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal. The strength of the dollar, thanks to the outlook for stable exchange rates, is also putting pressure on broader metals markets.
Other precious metals also decreased in price today, accordingly, platinum futures prices decreased 0.1% to 959.05 USD/ounce, while silver futures prices decreased 1.8% to 27,168 USD. /ounce.
Goldtrend
Profited $69K this week, continue to short goldToday is Sunday, and tomorrow we will start a new week of trading. Let’s first summarize this week’s trading results. This week we participated in a total of 20 market transactions, 18 of which ended in profit, and the remaining 2 transactions ended in loss, with a winning rate of exactly 90%. Our overall trading profit is very good. I personally made a profit of SWB:69K in this week's trading. I am very satisfied with this trading result! I hope we can still shine in next week’s market!
So what do you think of the gold market next week? The market is currently in a relatively obvious downward trend, with 2431 as the apex and 2418 as the sub-high. Since the retracement, the decline of gold has been significantly greater than the rebound. The negative candlesticks are obviously more than the positive candlesticks, and there are moves to reach new lows. In the short term, even if gold rebounds partially during the decline, it will fall back immediately after the rebound. The bulls have no counterattack. In the short term, the gold market is still controlled by the bears.
Therefore, we will still focus on shorting gold in the next transactions, and the rebound of gold will give us the opportunity to short gold. In the short term, we will mainly focus on the resistance in the 2305-2310 area and the 2315-2320 area. The following will first focus on the support of the 2385-2380 area and the 2375-2370 area below.
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XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Next week's rebound will continue to be bearish, and gold's decl
Perseverance without direction and purpose is futile. Many things require us to have a clear direction and purpose, and then perseverance will make sense. In daily trading, we need to have the right direction, and then work hard to stick to it, and success will be within reach.
The 4-hour moving average of gold is still in a short position. Now the resistance of the moving average has moved down to around 2317. The resistance near 2317 will continue to dry up next week. The 4-hour double top of gold continues to suppress the rise of gold. Gold's non-agricultural gains on Friday still surged higher and fell, and then fell sharply. Gold bulls were still unable to recover, and gold shorts were still better. Next week's rebound will continue to be short-selling at resistance near 2317.
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Gold price continues to have selling pressure - DOWN✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 5/6 - 5/11/2024
🔥 World situation:
Gold's initial gains were wiped out on Friday due to disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicating a slower jobs market. Despite briefly nearing a daily high of $2,310, it didn't surpass May 2’s high of $2,326 and retreated to current spot prices. The XAU/USD remains stable at around $2,300. Optimism on Wall Street diminishes the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. Notably, US Treasury yields and real yields are declining, affecting gold prices inversely.
🔥 Identify:
During Gold's correction - there is a lot of selling pressure. The Fed's interest rate is not too surprising. There will not be much fluctuation this week, mainly sideways in the DOWN trend
🔥 Technically:
Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows:
Resistance: $2347, $2400
Support : $2272, $2237, $2205
🔥 NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
The trend of gold is clear, just wait for it to hit a low and th
The positive support showed a strong rise, but the lack of momentum did not continue. It retreated from the high and re-examined the support. It stabilized and turned upward to maintain the range.
The Federal Reserve kept the current interest rates unchanged, and the overall tone is dovish, pushing the price of gold to rise further. It seems that the technical adjustment is in place, but in fact there is a lot of pressure on the upward trend.
At this week's Federal Reserve meeting, Powell said that if the labor market shows signs of softening, the Fed can turn its attention away from inflation and consider cutting interest rates.
Judging from the current data, available job vacancies in the United States fell to 8.488 million from 8.81 million in February, which is the lowest level in nearly three years.
The turnover rate unexpectedly plummeted by 198,000 to 3.329 million, the largest monthly drop since June last year, and the voluntary turnover rate fell to 2.1%, the lowest level in the past four years.
A higher number of voluntary separations indicates a tighter labor market, and vice versa. Judging from recent data, the number of people leaving their jobs has dropped significantly, which shows that people are less confident in finding or changing jobs in the current market.
Under this circumstance, today's market will usher in the U.S. non-farm payroll employment in April. The current market expectation is 243,000, lower than the previous value of 303,000. The unemployment rate remains at 3.8%, of which the unemployment rate is the focus. of.
Last month's non-farm payrolls data showed strong performance. The price of gold stabilized after only a brief decline, and then made a strong breakthrough. Whether today will show a similar trend to the last non-farm payrolls, no one is sure, even if this time it is The data is negative for gold prices, and the room for decline is limited. After all, the upward trend is intact and will continue.
The price of gold is currently running above the US$2,300 mark. It has maintained a consolidation trend so far in early trading. Neither the longs nor the shorts have the potential to break through. It is expected that they will have to wait for evening data guidance.
In the short term, the gold price will support the $2283-2281 area below, with further support at $2270, and the primary resistance above at $2308. It can extend and rise again after breaking through, and further can see $2330. My personal initial plan is to maintain a low-long trade. , if the price can close above US$2,330 this week, there is a high probability that it will continue to rise, gradually looking at US$2,350, and US$2,400.
XAUUSD: 3/5 Today’s Market Analysis and StrategyIn the Asian market on Friday, gold traded sideways at the important 2300 mark; on Thursday, the price of gold staged a rebound of over US$20 during the NY session. The U.S. dollar index fell sharply from its intraday high of 105.90, which provided gold prices with rebound momentum. In addition, tensions in the Middle East also attracted some safe-haven buying. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields erased daily losses after the U.S. data, sending gold prices lower ahead of Friday's U.S. jobs data.
Gold prices held firm at the 2,300 mark during the North American session on Thursday amid upbeat market sentiment, falling U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar. Traders are still digesting comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday and the U.S. central bank's decision to keep interest rates on hold. At the same time, data showed that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly and the labor market remained tight. Market participants expect the Fed to take a tougher stance but remain neutral. The central bank issued a neutral monetary policy statement and announced that it would slow down the pace of its quantitative tightening (QT) program.
Investors are beginning to focus on preparations for the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for April on Friday. The market expects that the U.S. will add 243,000 new jobs in April. Although it is not as good as the 303,000 jobs in March, the increase is still large. Average earnings are expected to rise 0.3%, the same as March's gain, according to a survey.
Technical
Gold first fell and then rose on Thursday, basically falling back to its starting point on Wednesday. Although it did not go unilaterally, it was overall weak. US gold rose at the support point of the 2285-day Bollinger Band, with a maximum around 2309. Recovered some of the falling space. Judging from the current closing line, gold tends to fluctuate in the H4 cycle. The daily rise will still take time or require the impact of non-agricultural data. The range that can be seen in Asia and Europe is 2315~2295. The US market is optimistic about gold rising under the influence of non-agricultural data. , above the high of 2340.
Asian market analysis
1H resistance is 2310, support below is 2296
4H resistance is 2326, support below is 2285
Daily resistance is 2347, support below is 2267
✅Asian market strategy:
BUY:2285~2288 SL:2276
SELL:2318~2324 SL:2328
Asian market strategy NY time is invalid
XAUUSD: 1/5 Today’s Market Analysis and StrategyThe price of gold fell nearly $50 on Tuesday, reaching a new low of 2285, as the Federal Reserve decision will be ushered in on Wednesday, and the market expects that the wording may be hawkish. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose, which significantly suppressed the price of gold; despite strong safe-haven demand and central bank buying Gold prices continued to rise for the third consecutive month.
In addition, the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield also rose, weakening the investment appeal of international gold. As U.S. data showed rising employment costs, indicating continued inflationary pressures, gold prices fell sharply below the 2,300 mark. The Fed needs to be patient when cutting interest rates, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said two weeks ago. A stronger U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields caused gold prices to fall as markets expected the Federal Reserve to cautiously adjust interest rates.
In addition to the Fed's interest rate decision and Fed Chairman Powell's speech, this trading day will also release US ADP employment data for April and US ISM manufacturing PMI data for April, which investors need to pay close attention to.
Technically, gold is operating with a bearish structure, and the day-to-day rebound is dominated by high-altitude layout participation.
Asian market analysis
1H resistance is 2296, support below is 2278
4H resistance is 2305, support below is 2266
Daily resistance is 2313, support below is 2253
✅Asian market strategy:
BUY:2273~2275 SL:2265
SELL:2298~2300 SL:2310
Asian market strategy NY time is invalid
XAUUSD: Short, target 2348-2333/2304-2280
The 30m chart has formed a head and shoulders, with support near 2363 and rebound resistance near 2383. If it does not break, go short. The 4h indicator on the trend is beneficial to shorts. This week, the focus is on short trading. The short-term target is around 2348-2333, and the final target is around 2304-2280.
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Gold Daily Primed for A Move Lower with Break of ConsolidationGold, Daily - Indicators with Fibs Overlay: Let's assume that the long extension will fail as a result of the Daily short that has traded. This target is 2260.15 . . . we have intraday fibs that take us to nearly that level. We have been ranging just above support for the past 4 days, which does lead me to think that eventually the trend may be down on the daily . . . but, we just need to break it an hold at levels down below 2292. I am looking for this support to break as the Bollinger Band turns down and the price action takes us below the Bollinger Bands on the daily time frame for the first time in a couple of months. So, I would wanto be a seller above 2300 . . . Our swings of 2340 and 2326 are doing well. . . I don't think the are in any danger at this time. However, any short under 2324 could be subject to a run up and a take out . . . If we do get a move back to that level, I would be looking to put more shorts on . . . One other note: Another down day or two and this slow stochastics could become "embedded" and locked-in on the downside . . . that would help us break out of the consolidation and move swiftly towards the downside.
Gold Retracement to Pick Up Steam and Head SouthGold, Weekly - Indicators with Fibs Overlay: There is the risk of an extension long up here if gold can find support above 2257.36 . . . the issue is that our fibs on the intraday are bearish and we keep going down. But, if bulls find support, the upside of this extension is 2500. But, currently, we are bearish and I suspect that we will take some time to trade down into the weekly bull fibs, 2048-2194 . . . that is my preferred scenario. That would also be part of the series of longs, the first one trading in Oct 23 as a result of the late 22-early 23 spike that saw gold trade it's long in our golden 50-61.8% zone in Oct of 23 at 1800.
It is usually a bad idea to buy above the Weekly Bollinger Band. Anybody who bought in the prior three weeks and held are now underwater. We have also fallen below the 5 week SMA and about to lose the embedded status of the slow stochastic with a decline next week. The 20Week SMA, Yellow Line and Midpoint of the Bollinger Band, at 2150 is a really good target. That 20Week SMA was also support that we bounced from earlier this year to get the bull move going. My bias does remain lower, though we will have occasional violent bursts higher into resistance.
Gold price in SIDEWAY price range! $2300⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold price holds steady around $2,300 in the mid-North American session on Thursday. Factors contributing to this include positive market sentiment, declining US Treasury yields, and a weaker US Dollar. Traders are still processing comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday, as well as the central bank's decision to keep rates unchanged. Additionally, recent data reveals a slight decrease in the US trade deficit and a tight labor market.
The XAU/USD is currently trading at $2,305, reflecting a 0.60% decrease. Expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Fed were not met, as they maintained a neutral position. The central bank also announced a reduction in the pace of its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program.
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price in the SIDEWAY price range, the range ranges from $2260 - $2330, is still trending DOWN more.
⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2268- $2266 SL $2260
TP1: $2275
TP2: $2290
TP3: $2300
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2334 - $2336 SL $2340
TP1: $2325
TP2: $2310
TP3: $2290
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
Yen Wobbles, Gold Gleams: A Stirring in Global Currency MarketsThe foreign exchange market witnessed a tug-of-war this week, with the Japanese yen (JPY) taking center stage. Speculation surrounding potential intervention by Japanese authorities to prop up the weakening yen against the US dollar (USD) sent ripples through the currency landscape. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a broad measure of the greenback's strength, dipped, impacting the price of gold, which became more attractive to some buyers.
The Yen's Woes: Intervention or Market Forces?
The Japanese yen has been on a depreciating streak recently, driven by a widening gap between Japanese and US interest rates. Japan's central bank, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy with near-zero interest rates, while the US Federal Reserve is signaling a more hawkish stance with potential interest rate hikes on the horizon. This disparity makes yen-denominated assets less appealing to investors seeking higher returns, pushing the yen's value down.
The recent rumors of intervention suggest that Japanese authorities are concerned about the rapid depreciation of the yen. A weaker yen can be a double-edged sword. While it makes Japanese exports more competitive in the global marketplace, it also pushes up the cost of imported goods, leading to potential inflationary pressures within Japan.
Intervention's Effectiveness: A Double-Edged Sword
Currency intervention involves a central bank buying or selling its own currency to influence its exchange rate. In this case, buying yen would aim to strengthen it against the dollar. However, the effectiveness of such interventions depends on various factors.
• Market Sentiment: If the market heavily anticipates further depreciation, a one-time intervention might have a limited impact. The BOJ would need to signal a sustained commitment to supporting the yen for a more significant effect.
• Ammunition: Intervention requires significant financial resources. The BOJ's foreign exchange reserves would play a crucial role in its ability to sustain intervention efforts.
The Greenback's Sway: DXY Dips, Gold Gleams
The US Dollar Index (DXY) gauges the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of major currencies, including the euro (EUR), the Japanese yen (JPY), the British pound (GBP), and others. This week's dip in the DXY indicates a weakening of the US dollar against this basket of currencies.
This can be attributed to several factors, including:
• Profit-taking: After a period of strength, some investors might be taking profits from their dollar-denominated holdings.
• Global Risk Aversion: Increased global uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions or economic concerns can lead investors to seek haven currencies, potentially weakening the dollar.
Gold's Allure: A Beneficiary of a Weaker Dollar
Gold is often perceived as a safe-haven asset during times of market volatility or economic uncertainty. When the US dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. This week's dip in the DXY could be contributing to some increased interest in gold.
However, gold's price is influenced by various factors beyond the dollar's strength. Interest rates, inflation, and investor sentiment all play a role.
Looking Ahead: A Dynamic Landscape
The global currency market remains a dynamic environment, and the events of this week highlight how various factors can interact and influence exchange rates. The future direction of the yen and the DXY will depend on a combination of economic data releases, central bank actions, and broader market sentiment.
Here are some key factors to watch in the coming days:
• BOJ Policy Statements: Any signals from the BOJ regarding potential adjustments to its monetary policy could impact the yen's valuation.
• US Economic Data: Upcoming US jobs reports and inflation data can influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, potentially impacting the DXY.
• Geopolitical Developments: Global events with significant economic implications can trigger market volatility and impact currency valuations.
By staying informed about these developments, market participants can make informed decisions about their currency positions and potentially take advantage of market opportunities.
Gold’s short trend remains unchangedGold's 4-hour moving average continues to cross downwards and the short position is arranged. Gold's recent rebound has all surged higher and then fell back. The bulls have not yet made any efforts to counterattack, and gold continues to be controlled by the bears.
Gold has risen rapidly and then fallen back quickly, indicating that the bulls are not very determined and may rise and fall back at any time.
GOLD.. still holding his supporting level? Hold or not??#GOLD... market still holding his supporting area as we told you in our video analysis.
Guys we have only 2294 95 as immediate and most important supporting area for today,
Keep close it and if market hold it in that case you can see a bounce from here ..
Upside areas mentioned on chart..
Only invalidate buying below ,2294
Good luck
Trade wisely
GOLD-analyze
Today you need to pay attention to the impact of US non-farm payrolls data and unemployment rate on gold in April.
Today's golden range is 2280-2344, and the small range is 2290-2330
You can trade within the range. Every Friday's trend is quite unexpected. You need to have stricter SL to prevent gold from causing you greater losses because the data breaks through the range.
Non-agricultural employment was as high as 303,000 last month, and this time it is expected to be 243,000. The probability of the data being higher than 240,000 is slim. To a large extent, it is still lower than 240,000, which means it is a bullish situation for gold, but we need to wait for the release of data to know the details
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GOLD : Gold's ability to increase is still thereXAU/USD has met the minimum requirement to complete a bearish "Measured Move" pattern after reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level of wave C at $2,286. This means that gold prices will likely go up in the near future.
This pattern is made up of three waves in a zig-zag pattern. The end of wave C, which is also the final wave, can be estimated based on the length of wave A and will usually be equal to the length of wave A or equal to the 0.681 Fibonacci ratio of wave A. If the price penetrates the 0.681 Fibonacci level At 2,285 USD, it is possible that wave C in this model will be equal to wave A and the target will be 2,245 USD or also the Fibonacci 1,000 threshold.
In general, the trend of gold prices is still increasing in both the medium and long term. If it successfully breaks through the cluster of SMA lines and the peak of wave B at around 2,350 USD, it could open a new price increase and XAU/USD could completely return to test the high of 2,400 USD.
However, the Fed did not forget to send the market a "hawkish" signal on the issue of inflation, specifically: "In recent months, there has been no significant progress towards the 2% inflation target. " This makes some investors concerned about the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in the future, which could negatively affect gold prices.
Profited $14K, NFP is expected to rise and then fall backThis morning, I shorted gold near 2326.31, and as gold fell back to hit TP: 2315, I profited and left the market; I added positions and went long gold near 2296 and 2286, and as gold bottomed out, it hit TP again: 2300 profit and exit. The total profit exceeded GETTEX:14K , which was another good profit for several days in a row!
Tomorrow will usher in a golden highlight moment, because NFP will be released tomorrow, which will definitely intensify short-term fluctuations and even guide the short-term direction of gold. It is a challenge but also an opportunity. In my opinion, gold is likely to rise first and then fall under the influence of NFP market!
Judging from the recent economic data in the United States, the U.S. economy is strong, which limits gold’s upside to a certain extent. Moreover, high inflation has not yet been completely resolved, so the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are decreasing, which is also negative for gold to a certain extent. In addition, gold has also confirmed the validity of the 2430 top at the technical level, so the overall short trend of gold has been established.At least gold has demand to extend its decline. So why does gold rise before falling?
Because gold has been weak recently and shorts have gradually gained the upper hand, the market is likely to need to use NFP data to kill a batch of short positions first and harvest some funds;In addition, gold has fallen ahead of schedule in the past two days, touching the 2285-2280 area many times, which is likely to reserve room for growth in the NFP market in advance. In the short-term structure, gold's technical bottom-out rebound creates a double-bottom structure in the short-term structure, which is helpful for gold's short-term rise. Therefore, in the NFP market, gold is very likely to rise and fall, and continue its decline.
Judging from the current trend, if gold rebounds first, we will first focus on the 2325-2330 area and the 2350-2355 area above. If gold rebounds first with the help of NFP data, I predict that gold is likely to touch the 2325-2330 area during the rebound, and may even try to touch the 2350-2355 area, and then fall back or even continue to fall to the 2270-2260 area. Therefore, in this process, there is a good opportunity to participate in gold trading, and the profit is definitely not small. I will definitely not miss this good opportunity once a month.After all, there are always markets, but opportunities are hard to come by!
I share detailed trading strategies and trading signals every day. You can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals and learn trading logic. People who are already in it have already made a lot of money. Let us enjoy the journey of making money together. !
GOLD - at immediate support? whats next?#GOLD.. perfect move as per our video analysis,
now market at his supporting area means immediate supporting area, that is 2303
keep close it guys because if market hold it then a further buying side ride expected from here,
stay sharp here,
good luck
trade wisely
GOLD - at today support? whats next??#GOLD.. it was fantastic move as we told you in today video analysis,
now market have 2296 as one of the most important support for today, if market hold that level in that case you can see a bounce from here,
only only buying invalidate below 2295 and that will be your cutt n reverse area on confirmation.
good luck
trade wisely
Bulls take advantage of the momentum to counterattack, but the r
Wednesday's open continued Tuesday's downward trend. After the European market fluctuated and rose, the U.S. market, under the influence of a series of positive economic data, coupled with the impact of the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's speech, the gold price rose sharply to the $2,326 line, and then turned positive.
The number of U.S. ADP jobs, known as "small non-agricultural employment", increased more than expected in April, indicating that the U.S. job market remains strong. After slowing down late last year, the average pace of hiring has accelerated over the past three months, almost matching the pace seen in the first half of 2023. The good news is that wage growth continues to slow.
U.S. ADP employment increased by 192,000 in April, the largest increase since July 2023, higher than the 175,000 expected. However, that was slightly lower than the upwardly revised 208,000 in March.
At the same time, the ADP wage indicator showed that year-on-year wage growth for employed workers was essentially flat at 5% in April, the lowest level in years; wage growth for those changing jobs fell to 9.3% from 10.1% in March. , but still higher than the level at the beginning of the year. This provides some welcome news amid several other signs that inflation is more resilient than many economists and policymakers expected.
Economic data released on the same day showed that the U.S. manufacturing industry had a weak start to the second quarter, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI sales price inflation in April falling to a three-month low. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global, said that overall, producers also appear confident enough in the business outlook to continue adding employment at a rate comparable to the average of the past two years and investing further. Regarding operational capabilities. From an inflation perspective, it is also reassuring that commodity prices are rising at a slower pace than the 11-month high set in March. Growth remains high by historical standards, however, well above the average of the decade before the pandemic, as businesses continue to pass on higher commodity prices to customers.
Fed officials chose to maintain the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%. They noted in the statement that risks related to achieving the Fed's dual mandate of focusing on employment and inflation have become more balanced over the past year. While they acknowledged progress on inflation, they also acknowledged that recent data showed progress had stalled.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at Thursday's post-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference that it may take the Fed longer than previously expected to gain enough confidence in the trajectory of inflation to begin cutting interest rates.
"We have stated that we do not believe it is appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate until we are more confident that inflation will continue to move toward 2%," he said. Previously, the Fed chose to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged and released new stimulus measures. inflation concerns. "It may take longer than previously expected to gain greater confidence," Powell said.
Powell insisted that the data did not convince policymakers that inflation was falling toward the Fed's 2% target, making a rate cut unlikely at this time. He also did not hint at the possibility of a rate hike. However, Powell stopped short of suggesting a rate cut this year or that rates have peaked, as he has previously said.
The Fed may not be confident enough to cut interest rates yet, but it's worth noting that the idea of raising rates doesn't appear to be on the agenda yet. Powell's comments reassured investors who feared the Fed might respond more aggressively to signs that inflation progress is stalling.
Overall, the general meaning is: the interest rate cut has been delayed, but not derailed. This is a very cautious hawkish statement and the next step is unlikely to be a rate hike. This also makes this press conference far less hawkish than market expectations, at least interest rate hikes are not on the table. This statement caused the U.S. dollar to plummet and stimulated a sharp rise in gold prices, once exceeding $30!
The "Global Gold Demand Trend Report for the First Quarter of 2024" released by the World Gold Council on April 30 showed that global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year in the first quarter. Among them, the Bank of India’s gold reserves increased by 19 tons in the first quarter of this year. The Reserve Bank of India purchased a net 16 tonnes of gold last year. Data shows that in the first quarter of this year, the Reserve Bank of India purchased more gold than it did in all of last year.
This message is timely. This news can only temporarily affect the price and will not continue to affect the trend. Market prices will eventually return to technical trends. The current market price is blocked at the $2,327 level. This does not rule out the possibility that market prices will fall back under pressure.
For two weeks in a row, we have defined the current trend as a downward correction following a bullish rally. Because the previous upward cycle was too large and lasted too long, it would be difficult to complete the correction in the short term. This round of adjustment must be a substantive adjustment. Downward, long-term adjustment, there is currently only one negative line on the weekly line, which is not enough to complete the entire upward correction, and the adjustment cycle has not yet continued.
In the downward correction of the secondary rhythm, it is very easy to form a double top within a small cycle. Currently, 2327 has been drawn twice. The inhibitory effect here is likely to inhibit price stagnation and rebound, thereby exiting the decline. The short term is bearish around this line!
International golden thinking layout, for reference only:
Short term: short at current price 2325/26, stop loss 2333, target 2312/2300