The four major voting committees hawk gold under pressure, but t
This week, as signs of stabilizing U.S. inflation increased the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates as early as September, spot gold was boosted and took the opportunity to rise. On Thursday, it once approached the $2,400 mark, and then began to fall back under pressure of $2,397.
The European market continued to fall, and the US market in the evening did not save the downward trend of spot gold despite a series of bullish data such as initial jobless claims.
As the four major voting committees of the Federal Reserve issued hawkish statements one after another and expectations of interest rate cuts weakened, the market price once fell to the $2,371 line, and finally closed at $2,376. After two positive days on the daily line, it turned negative, and the market price hovered at the $2,378 line.
On Thursday, U.S. imported goods prices rose for a fourth consecutive month in April and the number of initial jobless claims fell last week. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week to May 11 was 222,000, higher than the 220,000 expected, but lower than the previous figure of 231,000. In the case of poor initial jobless claims, it failed to lead gold higher.
The Fed's "third leader" Williams recently stated that he does not see the need to tighten policy at present and is happy to see inflation slow down, but it is not enough to prompt a recent interest rate cut; Atlanta Fed President Bostic believes that inflation made progress in April. But no trend has been formed. It may be appropriate to cut interest rates before the end of the year; Richmond Fed President Barkin and Cleveland Fed President Mester both believe that interest rates need to be kept high for a longer period of time to achieve the inflation target. Continuous hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve officials have dealt a blow to the bulls who have just regained confidence in cutting interest rates. Spot gold has also come out of its decline. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is still the key factor that dominates the trend of gold.
Israel's defense minister says more troops will join ground operations in Rafah, southern Gaza. The leader of the Yemeni Houthi armed forces also responded: Any ship heading to an Israeli port will become a target within our strike range.
The rise initiated in the middle of this week was due to the rising expectations of interest rate cuts, while yesterday's decline was subject to hawkish remarks and the weakening of interest rate cut expectations. It is not difficult to find that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is still the decisive factor affecting the trend of gold prices.
In the short term, after falling back from the pressured position of $2,397, the four-hour pattern is still a big negative, and there is no continuous big negative. The single negative pattern is not a weakness, and this drop is a callback.
Last week, gold completed a short-term retracement correction. The downtrend cycle ended and began to rise. The entire rise was presented as a step-by-step retracement. The rise was accompanied by a retracement, which has become a norm.
Therefore, this retracement will not change the overall upward rhythm, and low and long positions are still our main layout direction. This trading day will focus on the support position of 2371, and start around this line. If there is no second fall below 2371, consider buying more in the afternoon.
International golden thinking layout, for reference only:
Pay attention to the 2371 support, hold this support, consider opening a long position in the afternoon, and look at the 2386, 2392, and 2398 positions.
