7.4 Non-farm payrolls exploded, and expectations for the Fed’s rOn Thursday, as the strong US employment data dispelled the market's expectations of the Fed's recent rate cut, the US dollar index rose sharply before the US market, returned to above the 97 mark, and once rose to an intraday high of 97.42.
Spot gold fell sharply, once falling to $3311 during the session, a drop of more than $50 from the intraday high, and then recovered some of its losses and remained near 3330 for consolidation.
The current upper suppression position of the daily line is almost here at 3350, and the lower support is located at 3320-25.
So if it is maintained in the range of consolidation, it is likely to be rectified at 3320-50.
Secondly, from the hourly chart:
It can be seen from the trend of 3247 to 3365.
The Fibonacci 618 position is exactly here at 3320.
Although the lowest point last night was pierced to around 3311, it can be seen that the entity still closed above 3320.
As long as 3320 cannot be broken, the best case scenario is to maintain it at 3320-50 for consolidation. If not, once 3350 is broken, the high point of 3365 will definitely not be able to be maintained.
Therefore, for today's operation, try to maintain the high-selling and low-buying range of 3320-50.
Goldupdate
How to accurately grasp gold trading opportunities?Gold rebounded as expected, and fell under pressure at the 3295-3296 line during the European session. This position was the key resistance level for the previous top and bottom conversion, and the range shock pattern continued. In terms of operation, the high-altitude and low-multiple ideas remain unchanged, and we will continue to pay attention to the short opportunities after the rebound.
📉 Operational ideas:
Short orders can be arranged in batches in the 3295-3311 area, and the target is 3280-3270 area;
If the support below 3260-3255 is effective, you can consider taking the opportunity to reverse long orders and participate in short-term.
📌Key position reference:
Upper pressure: 3295, 3311
Lower support: 3278-3275, 3260-3255
Gold strategy idea suggests shorting at 3291-3293, perfectly capturing the rebound high point! Smoothly reached the profit target of 3275, gaining 18pips! If you are not able to flexibly respond to the market in trading, and are not good at adjusting your trading ideas and rhythm in time with the market rhythm, you can pay attention to the bottom notification 🌐 to get more specific operation details and strategy updates. Let us work together to flexibly and steadily pursue more profits in the ever-changing market!
Gold remains strong, and we continue to buy on pullbacks!ADP employment unexpectedly turned negative, and the probability of a rate cut increased again
The ADP employment report released on the same day showed that the number of private sector jobs in the United States decreased by 33,000 in June, the first net loss since March 2023, and the May data was also significantly revised down to +29,000. After the release of the ADP data, the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in July quickly rose from 20% before the data was released to about 27.4%. The market's bet on a rate cut before September has almost been fully factored in, and federal funds futures also show that the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut has risen to 22%.
This "frown-making" data released a strong signal of cooling in the labor market before Thursday's non-farm report. If today's non-farm continues to be weaker than expected, it may force the Federal Reserve to act faster.
Gold opened high and then retreated continuously. From the daily chart, gold is still in an upward trend in the long term. The previous market rebounded effectively after touching the downward trend line, and the rebound force was considerable. With the restart of the bullish force, the main idea can carry the trend and do more on dips. In addition, from the 4-hour chart, gold has broken through the previous downward trend line and has gone out of the V-shaped reversal pattern, which means that the previous short-term downward trend has ended. At present, a new trend is also opening up in the 4-hour chart. The rise of gold has also established an upward trend line. You can consider buying on dips based on the upward trend line 3332. However, due to insufficient bottoming time in the previous stage, it may still face the risk of decline, so you should set the stop loss with caution. From the 1-hour chart, gold fell after opening high, and the bullish trend remains unchanged. The points for long orders can consider 3334 and 3328.
Gold operation suggestions: Go long on gold near 3325-3335, with a target of 3350-3360.
XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISXAUUSD has officially broken out of a well-structured descending channel on the 4H timeframe, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. After multiple rejections from the lower boundary and consistent pressure on the upper trendline, the breakout above the channel confirms a strong upside bias. Price is currently holding near 3330, and I’m now eyeing 3450 as the next key resistance level. This setup aligns perfectly with a textbook channel breakout, offering a solid risk-to-reward scenario for bullish continuation.
The breakout comes at a time when macro fundamentals are supportive of gold strength. With rising uncertainty surrounding global inflation trends and mixed economic signals from the US, investors are leaning back into gold as a defensive hedge. The US dollar has shown signs of softening amid increasing speculation that the Fed could pivot to a more neutral stance in the coming months. This gives gold more breathing room to the upside, especially as real yields begin to flatten out.
Geopolitical tensions, especially renewed volatility around global trade and Middle East developments, are further fueling demand for safe-haven assets like XAUUSD. The recent breakout is backed by rising volume and momentum indicators turning bullish, making this move more sustainable than a short-term spike. Gold typically thrives during periods of uncertainty and shifting rate expectations, and that’s exactly the phase we are entering now.
From a technical and macroeconomic perspective, gold is showing strength just as the broader markets begin to wobble. This breakout isn’t just about structure—it’s supported by real macro catalysts and seasonal demand strength. I'm bullish toward the 3450 zone, and any retest of the broken channel resistance now turned support would offer an attractive entry. Staying focused on gold as a top performer in Q3 could offer strong upside with controlled risk.
Gold(XAU/USDT) Analysis - Targeting 4H Liquidity VoidOANDA:XAUUSD
**Gold (XAUUSD) Trade Idea 🚀**
**🔍 Setup:**
- Price bounced from **Daily FVG (red)** & is now in **4H FVG (green)** ✅
- Targeting **4H liquidity void at 3400** 🎯
**⚡ Key Levels:**
- **Support:** 3338 / 3320
- **Resistance:** 3360 / 3380 / **3400 (main target)**
**🎯 Plan:**
- **Entry:** Hold above 3341 or pullback to 4H FVG
- **Stop:** Below 3320
- **Target:** 3400
*(Chart attached 👆)*
Liquidity Void: Its an imbalance which has high probability of getting filled
XAU/USD 01 July 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on two separate occasions forming a double top which is a bearish reversal pattern. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
H4 Timeframe - Price has failed to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD I Trade Update Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** XAUUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
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XAU/USD 26 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following previous high, and printing of bearish CHoCH, price has pulled back to an M15 supply zone, where we are currently seeing a reaction. Therefore, I shall now confirm internal high.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 25 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following previous high, and printing of bearish CHoCH, price has pulled back to an M15 supply zone, where we are currently seeing a reaction. Therefore, I shall now confirm internal high.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISGold (XAUUSD) continues to maintain strong bullish momentum, with current price action sitting around 3,430. We have been holding a bullish outlook since the key accumulation zone between 3,150 and 3,200. Price has consistently formed higher highs and higher lows, and recent consolidation has broken out with conviction. Based on technical structure, my immediate upside target is 3,500, where I expect price to react before potentially extending even higher depending on upcoming macro drivers.
Fundamentally, gold is being fueled by a combination of sticky inflation data and a cautious Fed stance. Even though the FOMC held rates steady in June, market expectations are shifting towards policy easing later in the year due to softening labor data and a cooling economic outlook. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and continued central bank gold buying remain strong tailwinds for the metal. The U.S. dollar index has shown minor weakness post-CPI, offering further support to gold bulls.
Technically, the daily chart shows a clean bullish flag breakout that aligns with the trendline support and impulsive wave structure. Price broke above 3,400 with strong volume and minimal resistance, indicating clear bullish dominance. As long as price holds above the 3,380–3,400 zone, continuation toward 3,500 remains highly probable. There is also confluence from previous structure highs and minor Fibonacci extension levels around that mark.
Overall, I remain confidently long on XAUUSD. I’ve been tracking this bullish cycle since the 3,150–3,200 region and continue to favor upside moves backed by macroeconomic and technical alignment. I’ll be watching key reaction zones near 3,500 for potential profit-taking, while holding swing positions with dynamic risk management in place.
BEST XAUUSD M30 BUY SETUP FOR TODAYGold (XAU/USD) is showcasing strong bullish momentum after breaking above the key resistance zone near $3,404, now acting as fresh support. 🔄 The price formed a bullish structure with clean higher highs and higher lows on the 30-minute chart, confirming buying strength. 🟣 The marked demand zone around $3,392–$3,404 is critical—if price retests and holds this level, we can expect a continuation toward $3,420 and beyond. 🚀📌 Traders should watch for bullish confirmations on pullbacks to this zone for potential long setups. 🧠⚡
XAU/USD 12 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 22 May 2025.
In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome.
As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS.
Price has remained within the internal range for an extended period and has yet to target the weak internal low. A contributing factor could be the bullish nature of the H4 timeframe's internal range, which has reacted from a discounted level at 50% of the internal equilibrium (EQ).
Intraday Expectation:
Technically price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765.
Alternative scenario:
Price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 05 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 22 May 2025.
In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome.
As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS.
Price has remained within the internal range for an extended period and has yet to target the weak internal low. A contributing factor could be the bullish nature of the H4 timeframe's internal range, which has reacted from a discounted level at 50% of the internal equilibrium (EQ).
Intraday Expectation:
Technically price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765.
Alternative scenario:
Price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 04 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 22 May 2025.
In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome.
As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS.
Price has remained within the internal range for an extended period and has yet to target the weak internal low. A contributing factor could be the bullish nature of the H4 timeframe's internal range, which has reacted from a discounted level at 50% of the internal equilibrium (EQ).
Intraday Expectation:
Technically price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765.
Alternative scenario:
Price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 30 May 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 22 May 2025.
In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome.
As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS.
Price has remained within the internal range for an extended period and has yet to target the weak internal low. A contributing factor could be the bullish nature of the H4 timeframe's internal range, which has reacted from a discounted level at 50% of the internal equilibrium (EQ).
Intraday Expectation:
Technically price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765.
Alternative scenario:
Price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 28 May 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 22 May 2025.
In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome.
As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS.
Price has remained within the internal range for an extended period and has yet to target the weak internal low. A contributing factor could be the bullish nature of the H4 timeframe's internal range, which has reacted from a discounted level at 50% of the internal equilibrium (EQ).
Intraday Expectation:
Technically price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765.
Alternative scenario:
Price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
EURAUD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISEURAUD is currently presenting a textbook bullish setup with a well-defined falling wedge formation on the daily chart. After a strong impulsive rally in April, price has been consolidating within this wedge, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows—typical of a corrective pattern. Now, with price testing the upper trendline of the wedge, we are positioned for a potential breakout, supported by increasing bullish momentum and clean structure. With the current price around 1.75, the next leg higher toward the 1.85 resistance zone is well on the radar.
From a fundamental perspective, the euro is gaining strength on the back of improving Eurozone macro data, with recent PMI figures showing resilience and inflation staying moderately sticky—making the ECB cautious about aggressive rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar continues to face headwinds amid declining commodity prices and weakening consumer sentiment. The Reserve Bank of Australia remains relatively dovish, especially as wage growth plateaus and inflation expectations cool. This EURAUD divergence sets the stage for a broader move in favor of the euro.
Technically, the breakout from this wedge structure would signify the continuation of the prior bullish trend, and given the size of the previous impulsive move, a breakout target of 1.85 is both conservative and well-aligned with market structure. The bullish divergence forming on oscillators such as RSI and MACD also confirms the slowing momentum in the downward move. A clean break and close above 1.7550 would be the trigger point for long positions, with invalidation below 1.7220.
This is a high-probability breakout setup with strong confluence across technical and fundamental indicators. With euro strength coming into play and AUD fundamentals remaining weak, I’m favoring the long side here. A move toward 1.85 is well-supported, and a break above the wedge could trigger significant upside in the coming sessions. This is a setup worth watching closely.
XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISXAUUSD is showing a textbook technical reaction from a well-defined support zone around the 3145–3170 range, which aligns perfectly with previous structure and demand zones. After a sharp retracement from recent highs, gold is now posting a strong bullish bounce, validating this level as a significant area of buyer interest. With today’s push above 3230, this bounce confirms our bullish thesis, and I now expect a continuation move toward the 3500 mark in the coming weeks.
Fundamentally, gold remains one of the most favored assets in 2025 due to ongoing global economic uncertainty, rising geopolitical risks, and persistent central bank demand. With US inflation cooling and the Fed signaling the potential for rate cuts later this year, real yields are slipping, giving gold the macro tailwind it needs to push higher. Moreover, recent data from China shows continued accumulation of gold reserves, reinforcing the long-term bullish case.
Technically, this correction appears to be a healthy retest in a strong uptrend. The market has respected the previous breakout level, and we are seeing early signs of momentum returning. The price action is starting to structure higher lows, and if price clears the 3250 level convincingly, it will likely trigger further momentum-based buying. I’m targeting 3500 as the next major resistance, where we could see some profit-taking.
This setup is one of the cleanest long opportunities on the board. With institutional positioning still net long, and technical and macro alignment pointing higher, I see this as a high-conviction trade. As long as price holds above 3145, the path of least resistance remains up. I’ll be closely watching for further confirmation as we build toward the 3500 target.
XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISGold (XAUUSD) is currently trading around the 3170 level after pulling back from its recent highs near 3400. Price action is showing strong signs of bullish resilience as it bounces off a key support zone, suggesting the corrective phase may be nearing completion. The structure on the 2-day chart is shaping up as a healthy retracement within a strong uptrend, and the latest bounce is gaining volume, which indicates renewed buying interest and a potential re-entry point for bulls.
From a macroeconomic perspective, ongoing concerns about persistent inflation, global debt levels, and geopolitical tensions continue to support the bullish narrative for gold. With the latest U.S. CPI data showing inflation remaining above the Fed's comfort zone, the likelihood of prolonged higher interest rates remains in play. However, real yields have not kept pace, making gold an attractive hedge in this environment. Central banks worldwide are still aggressively accumulating gold as a reserve diversification strategy, which reinforces the broader demand.
Technically, the market is reacting precisely from a demand zone around 3120–3150, where historical resistance turned support. Momentum is building for a continuation of the bullish trend, and a push toward the 3500 level looks increasingly likely if price breaks above the minor resistance around 3250 with conviction. The risk-reward here remains favorable, especially with the clear invalidation level just below the recent lows.
As a professional trader, I view this structure as a textbook bullish continuation setup. The strong trend, clean bounce, and increasing volume are aligning for a potential breakout toward 3500. With macro catalysts and technical confirmation supporting the bullish bias, this is a solid opportunity for swing buyers to ride the next leg up in gold.
Gold Updates - XAUUSD May 14 Wednesday🧠 XAUUSD – Market Outlook & Tactical Watchlist (May 14)
GoldMindsFX Chart Update
📉 Bias:
Still bearish on H1–H4. Price structure remains heavy, with compression beneath resistance and weak bullish rejections off demand.
Momentum is stuck between hopeful dips and unforgiving supply.
🧭 Macro Context:
CPI data yesterday gave the market a good shake, but instead of confirming a breakout, Gold has slumped back into a sideways liquidity trap. Every little spike gets slapped down.
Translation? We’re in "mess around and find out" territory.
No clean direction until one of the extremes gets swept with volume and confirmation.
🔎 Zones to Watch – Tactical Map (Wide Ranges Only)
📌 3247–3265
➡️ This is a key compression zone. It was tested overnight and rejected. If price returns here and stalls, watch for signs of absorption. If it rips through → next target is higher (but we don’t chase).
📌 3280–3295
➡️ Untested shelf above CPI drop. Premium supply area that might magnet price — but only if we break clean above 3265.
📌 3205–3180
➡️ Broader demand basin. Price is bouncing here but without real commitment. Still valid for reactive watch — but bulls have no real control.
📌 Below 3174
➡️ The vault. This is the final flush zone. If Gold loses all composure and dives, this is where serious interest may return. No front-running.
⚠️ Notes on Structure:
Price is stuck inside a liquidity funnel between 3235 and 3220.
Rejection wicks = traps. Don’t engage unless structure shifts.
No BOS = No boss. We don’t serve chop.
📸 Summary for the Chart Watchers:
We are inside mid-support territory, but nothing is confirmed yet.
Bulls need to break above 3247 and hold it.
Bears want to crack below 3200 with aggression.
Until then, this is a staring contest between imbalance and indecision.
🧠 Final Note
The zone is never the trade.
The behavior inside is.
Drop a 🚀 Follow, comment, and share with your trading crew — if this helps your trading; let’s build a sharp Gold team
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISXAUUSD is currently trading around 3250, consolidating within a well-defined bullish flag structure after a strong impulsive rally. This flag pattern on the 12-hour chart reflects healthy profit-taking and reaccumulation after a significant upward move. The current price action is respecting the lower boundary of the flag, and with growing volume on bullish candles, the setup suggests a high probability of a breakout to the upside, targeting the 3650 region.
From a macroeconomic perspective, gold remains in strong demand due to ongoing global uncertainties and persistent inflation concerns. The US CPI print remains sticky above 3%, keeping real yields under pressure and supporting gold's bullish bias. Furthermore, with the Fed expected to hold interest rates steady for longer, the market is starting to price in fewer rate cuts this year. This continues to undermine the USD and supports gold as a store of value. Additionally, rising central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risk premium are adding further tailwinds.
Technically, we are watching for a clean breakout above the upper flag resistance around 3280–3300. A breakout with volume confirmation would open the door toward the psychological 3400 level first, followed by a push toward the 3650 target area. Momentum indicators are turning up, and price is showing signs of basing just above previous support levels, adding confidence to the bullish continuation scenario.
Gold remains one of the strongest trending assets in 2025, and this consolidation is likely just a pause before the next leg higher. As global markets digest the impact of persistent inflation and macro volatility, precious metals like gold are likely to outperform. This flag formation provides a textbook continuation setup for traders looking to position with the broader trend.
XAU/USD 12 May 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned previously mentioned that I would continue to monitor price and depth of bearish pullback following previous bullish iBOS.
Price did not pull back with any significance, therefore, I will apply discretion and not mark the previous iBOS. I have however marked this in red.
Price continued bullish and subsequently printed a bearish iBOS to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zones before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,435.055.
Alternative scenario:
Price has this far failed to target to target weak internal high, as has H4 TF. This could be related to the fact that all higher timeframes remain in corrective bearish pullback phase initiation, therefore, it should not come as a surprise if price prints a bearish iBOS.
Note:
Gold price volatility is expected to remain heightened due to the Federal Reserve’s dovish approach and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should remain vigilant, fine-tune their risk management strategies, and be prepared for potential price fluctuations in this highly volatile market. Additionally, recent tariff announcements by former President Trump are likely to exacerbate market instability, leading to further price swings.
M15 Chart:
EURCAD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISEURCAD is currently trading around 1.5600 and is consolidating within a textbook ascending triangle pattern on the daily timeframe. This setup signals a strong bullish bias as the pair continues to form higher lows, tightening under a key horizontal resistance zone between 1.5730 and 1.5770. Price is respecting the ascending trendline very well, indicating buyer strength. A breakout above this resistance zone could open the doors for a clean rally toward the 1.6400 psychological level, offering a strong risk-to-reward opportunity.
From a fundamental standpoint, the euro is gaining traction as recent Eurozone economic indicators suggest improving sentiment and a potential shift in ECB tone toward neutral. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar remains pressured by falling crude oil prices and softening domestic data, including disappointing employment numbers this week. This divergence in fundamentals aligns well with the bullish technical structure for EURCAD, creating a high-probability scenario for buyers.
Looking ahead, a confirmed breakout above 1.5770 with volume could trigger a strong bullish impulse. The measured move from the triangle’s base supports a projection toward the 1.6400 area, making this setup attractive for swing traders aiming to ride the next leg higher. Risk should remain controlled below 1.5440, where the ascending structure would be invalidated.
I’m closely monitoring the price action near the breakout zone. Patience is key, but once we see bullish momentum pushing through the resistance, this trade setup has the potential to deliver a solid upside run. EURCAD remains one of my top bullish forex plays going into mid-May.