Gold Trend 22/11Gold dipped to near 1730 yesterday. The week began at 1750; the price has kept moving lower throughout the day, whereas the selling momentum from last week has resumed back from the weekend. It touched day-low at 1731 at the US session, with the day ending at 1737.
An S-T downtrend channel(2) has formed in the past 72 hours since gold escaped the uptrend channel(1) last week. 1730 should be able to provide support for gold in the short run. Trading range(3) should be effective in the next 24-48 hours; if the price fails to clear the support at 1730, a wider range of 1730-70(4) will last until the end of the week.
The previous peak of 1730 has provided support on the daily chart. The current rebound target can be set at the 5-day/10 days MA at 1755. The next significant move will be depended on the US Fed. Minutes scheduled to be released this Thr.
An S-T peak has occurred after the price breakout from the 5-day MA support on the daily chart. 1746 is the 23.6& retracement following the 38.2% target at near 1722.
S-T Resistances:
1760
1755
1748-50
Market price: 1741
S-T Supports:
1740
1735
1730
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Goldusd
GOLD Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022 GOLD Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.44%, UP from 2.42% last week according to GVZ data
(GOLD Volatility Index )
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 34th percentile, while according to GVZ, we are on 27h percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.7% movement
Bearish: 1.76% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 23.6% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 1792
BOT: 1708
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
66% probability we are going to touch previous low of 1747(already hit)
30% probability we are going to touch previous high of 1785
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently 7% of the weekly moving averages are in a bearish trend, and
a combination of moving averages and oscillators are in 1% bullish stance
GOLDUSD pair, bullish.First resistance to reach is the 1804.85$ mark, then if it breaks next is up again to 1834.60$.
Gold Trend 17/11Gold was again rejected by 1785 yesterday. The day began at 1778; the price was bounded by the 1770-80 range throughout the Asian & early European sessions; it jumped to the day-high near 1785 before the US session. The price stayed above 1780 for a few hours but pulled back at the US session opening. The day ended at 1773, down by USD 5.
As mentioned yesterday, selling resistance is strong above 1780(2). The trading range of 1770-80 lasted until the price cleared the support(3) early today. As the price escaped the uptrend channel(1), an S-T consolidation period should begin—the downside target set at 1755(4) for now.
An S-T peak has occurred after the price breakout from the 5-day MA support on the daily chart. 1746 is the 23.6& retracement following the 38.2% target at near 1722.
S-T Resistances:
1780
1775
1770
Market price: 1763
S-T Supports:
1760
1755
1750
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Gold Triple Top patternAs you can see in the chart, gold has printed a triple bottom pattern that usually signals the end of a downtrend.
It broke out from the resistance area and closed a few days over it, that means that the pattern is confirmed.
Now I expect a pullback till the previous resistance area(1730$) to be produced, It is a classic retest of the breakout point that could be a great long opportunity.
I will consider to enter a long at 1730$ with an stop loss order at 1683$ and if it goes well I will keep locking profit during the uptrend with main target the previous long term high 2070$.
I would be glad to see what do you think in the comments.
Gold Trend 16/11Gold renewed the 2-month high yesterday, but the selling pressure was intense. The day began at 1771; the price was bounded in a tight range between 1766-74 in early trading. It tried to clear the resistance at 1780, touching the day-high at 1786 at the US session opening. The day ended at 1778, up by USD 7.
After three attempts(2) yesterday, gold failed to clear the selling resistance above 1780. A horizontal range(3) has formed on the 1-hour chart. For the uptrend channel to stay in effect, the price must stay above 1770 in the European session and later jump above 1780 in the US session. If the price fails to do so, it will signal the bullish momentum slowing down, leading an S-T to consolidate toward 1750 in the next 24-48 hours.
It will be the first sign of the trend reversing if the price close below 1771. Also, pay close attention to the 5-day MA; if this support clears, a consolidation toward 1730 may happen.
S-T Resistances:
1785-87
1780
1775
Market price: 1771
S-T Supports:
1765
1760
1755
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Gold: Roaring TwentiesAre we repeating history and reliving the Roaring Twenties or should we call it the Golden Twenties? Gold is currently channeling all its power and following an upwards slope. Pushing up north, we're expecting the trend to stay strong to work its way above the resistance at $1824. Primarily, Gold should continue to move north as long as it remains above the $1739-mark.
Gold next movegold will fake out around the orange box above. after this he will return in the blue box under the small orange one. here he will trigger people stoploss and rise quickly. then we will see the big orange box and finally the pink line.
there is a chance that he will fake out down and go to the blue box above the small orange one. here will form the same situation as above but in reverse.
the situation where we rise is the most obvious