GOLD Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 GOLD Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022
We can see that this week our volatility is at 2.5% which declined from 2.58% last week.
Currently according to ATR we are on 80th percentile, and according to GVZ we are on 86th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is a HIGHLY volatile market.
Now, based on the implied volatility data that we have for this week, lets look into further details.
We can see that currently there is 22.3% chance, that our candle is going to close at the end of the week either above/below the next channel
TOP: 1725
BOT: 1637
This can also be translated as a 77.7% chance that the market is going to move within this established range.
At the same, looking at the previous high/low values of the candle, and taking into account the entire history available of data, we can expect that there is going to be a
70% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of 1681
30% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of 1616
Goldusd
Gold : Intraweek Technical AnalysisGold Intraweek Technical Analysis:
after staying consolidated between 1630 to 1650 the gold finally broke out from 1650 and 1670 resistance levels and made a weekly closure at 1680. The gold is expected to continue the momentum in coming week .a retracement to 50% and 61.8% fib levels is expected ,the 50% fib levels lies at 1652 whilw 61.8% lies at 1644. My idea for coming week is to wait for retracement to any swing levels, ideal swing level will be 1644 and 1655. On upside we can expect the level of 1700 and 1730 on continuation of uptrend.
If you like this or if you think the opposite of this or if there is any other opinion, mention it in the comments. I am open to all kind of suggestions and critics.
GOLD (XAUUSD): 2 Scenarios For Next Week Explained 🥇
Hey traders,
Gold suddenly bounced on Friday.
Based on a current situation, I see 2 potential scenarios:
The market is still trading within the boundaries of a falling parallel channel on a weekly.
If the price breaks and closes above that, then a bullish continuation will be expected at least to 1723 level.
The market may also respect the resistance of the channel.
As a confirmation, consider a bearish breakout of 1664- 1674 horizontal support.
Then, a bearish continuation will be expected to 1630.
Wait for a breakout, traders.
That will be our trigger.
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XAUUSD top-down analysis, UPDATED!!Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
XAUUSD Gold Next Possible Move#XAUUSD ( Gold / U.S Dollar )
Long Time Frame #LTF
- Following Triple Bottom Pattern and Rejecting from the Daily Support Level
-Buying Divergence
- Impulse Correction Impulse
Short Time Frame #STF
- In corrective Pattern " Expanding Diagonal " and Standing at the " Demand Zone " at Upper Trend Line #UTL
- Selling Divergence
- Rejection from Fibonacci Level - 61.80%
GOLD (XAUUSD): Waiting For Breakout 🥇
Update for Gold:
as you remember, we spotted earlier that the market is trading within a major falling parallel channel on a weekly.
Analyzing a daily time frame, I spotted an inverted cup & handle formation.
1614 - 1622 is its neckline.
I believe that a trend-following movement will initiate soon.
To confirm that, I am patiently waiting for a bearish breakout of the underlined yellow area.
We need a daily candle close below that to confirm a breakout.
Then the market will drop at least to 1590.
But, for now, be patient, and wait for a breakout first.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
XAUUSD Gold Next Possible Move#XAUUSD ( Gold / U.S Dollar )
According to the Long Time Frame #LTF we have BEARISH CHANNEL
ELLIOT WAVES - Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Wave and Correction " ABC " and it will Again Follow Impulsive Wave
Rejecting from the Daily Support Level
If Breaks then Sell and if Rejects then Buy
According to Short Time Frame #STF it will makes it " 3rd " Corrective Wave and will Break the Support Level will need to wait for the Retest
🥇Gold🥇 Analyze (11/02/2022)!!!Gold had two different reactions against two trend lines.
Gold broke the main trend line, but it failed and started to fall from the PRZ(Price Reversal Zone), which caused the breakthrough uptrend line to break.
According to the above description, the Gold will fall to the targets I specified in my chart.
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), Timeframe 1H.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
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XAUUSD Analysis & Trade IdeaGOLD is looking bearish because of multiple bearish signals & US dollar is also standing on support with bullish divergence on the 5, 15 & 30min time frames.
Bearish Signals:
1. Lower High Lower Lows
2. Bearish Trendline
3. Resistance at 1661.5
4. 0.618 Fib resistance
5. Divergence 1hr TF
GOLD Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 GOLD Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022
We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 6.71%, decreasing from 6.83% of last month.
This is currently placing us in the 80th percentile according to ATR and 92th according to GVX
Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is:
BEARISH Candle : 2.39%
BULLISH Candle : 3.03%
With this in mind we can expect with a close to 28.1% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel:
BOT: 1521
TOP: 1744
Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a :
30% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 1730
65% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 1617
XAUUSD Gold Next Possible Move#XAUUSD ( Gold / U.S Dollar )
- Completed the Impulsive Wave " 12345 " and Correction " ABC "
- It will Again Following Impulsive Waves " 12345 "
- Rising Wedge Pattern and Breakout the Lower Trend Line #LTL and Retested
- Selling Divergence in #RSI
- Rejection from Fibonacci Level - 61.80%
Gold Analysis and Trade Idea for 02-Nov-2022Market is below the resistance line 1658-1660, the down trend is so week and the chance of the price falling is 30%-50% and market can go up to 1645 then 1635,
But if market manages to break resistance which looks like it will then the price index can break 1665 and 16670, the main target will be 1672 then 1680
Today's news will also affect the market so look market near news arrival.
Here is my trade plan, I won't short market today. I'll be long if market broke the resistance as per following plan.
Plan A
Long Gold: 1660 (Buy Zone)
SL: 1642
TP1: 1665.00
TP2: 1672.00
TP3: 1680.00
TP4: 1686.00
Best of luck.
VERY Bearish momentum for 2 NOV after FED FOMCHi Everyone,
why am i telling you this?
this is the 3rd time FED will hiking the 75bps interest rate
we have been through the 1st and 2nd one, the gold got much pressure after the hike interest rate announcement
FED aiming 4,75 - 5,00 % for the 2022 , but it dont sure yet for the december hike , because they need to see the market reaction and the data that will release about the end of november until the middle of december
but we can surely about more than 90% the fed will raise on 2 November 2022 about 75bps or maybe 100bps
because they want to bring inflation down
at least near the level (normally 1,25 -2,25 % inflation is great)
if the inflation going down to at least 7,5% and the interest rates will become 4%, and then interest rates 5% at the end of december its very clear the FED will pivot to make sure they got softlanding
probability it will start slowing down on Q1 2023.
some news you can check it out:
www.youtube.com
www.youtube.com
www.youtube.com
the price will be very fluctuative / volatile , you should watch your risk management, dont risk more than 1%, there is chance to high then drop
please watch 1722 level, and for me i can see the bottom is around 1532 -1564 .
(please dont risk more than 1% in this trade)
watch your risk management. Good Luck.
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Goodluck
i'll help you to have a great trade.
Please using good money management.
dont take any emotional trade.
Note:
Dont risk more than 0.2% on trending market
Dont risk more than 1% on ranging market
Wish good luck for all people.
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Thankyou.