Does $TSLA have enough momentum to reverse trend?First we saw bullish divergence between price making a lower low and GoNoGo Oscillator making a higher low. The oscillator then rode the zero line for several bars as the GoNoGo Squeeze showed a tug of war between buyers and sellers. When this GoNoGo Squeeze was broken to the upside it did so on heavy volume as price climbed above horizontal resistance. This level should offer support going forward. We'll want to observe if GoNoGo Oscillator holds the zero line on any pullback as GoNoGo Trend tries to paint "Go" bars.
Gonogo
$NFLX Trying to Break above Horizontal ResistanceThe concept of polarity suggests that there will be resistance where there was support earlier last year on this weekly chart of Netflix.
The GoNoGo Trend indicator blends the foundational concepts of technical trend following to paint the price bar according to strength of trend. Currently we see that after rallying from the 2022 summer lows $NFLX is in a "Go" trend painting strong blue bars. GoNoGo Oscillator tells us that momentum is positive and so in the direction of the "Go" trend having recently found support at the objective zero level. We will watch to see if this gives price the push it needs to climb above the resistance we see on the chart and set a new high.
Weekly Trend Perspective S&P 500 using GoNoGo ChartsFrom the weekly perspective, the S&P 500's rally this week was not lost in the late Friday afternoon selloff. GoNoGo Trend shifted into the stronger "Go" trend conditions - shown in the final blue bar representing this week's trading session ending 2/11/2022.
And yet, the weight of the evidence shows several key threats:
1. BEARISH DIVERGENCE between Price and GoNoGo Oscillator in Nov-Dec 2021. A higher high in price was met with a lower high in the momentum oscillator of the lower panel.
2. BREAK OF THE ZERO-LINE in the lower panel shows that momentum fell from neutral to oversold four weeks ago
3. POLARITY - the zero-line of GoNoGo Oscillator acted as SUPPORT throughout the "Go" trend of $SPY off the covid lows in 2020 but became RESISTANCE for momentum this week as the oscillator was rejected at zero and returned to negative territory
3. HIGH RELATIVE VOLUME - GoNoGo Oscillator changes from aqua to dark blue when markets experience higher relative volume. What was lighter volume at the swing highs in late November became heavier volume through this correction in 2022
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Decision Point for S&P "Go" TrendVolatile market swings continued last week. The midweek rally in $SPY was bookended by selling pressure as GoNoGo Trend conditions (daily data) for major US Equity indices flirted with neutral amber “GoFish” bars.
GoNoGo Oscillator (lower panel) is riding the zero line on heavy volume - this objective level of neutrality should provide support in a healthy uptrend. Breaking down below zero signifies heavy selling momentum. Logically, that is not a sustainable condition for an uptrend.
GoNoGo Squeeze is climbing to a max grid (amber visual in lower panel) - this illustrates the knife fight between buyers and sellers right now - heavy volume, choppy rangebound price action, and no directional momentum. Other familiar volatility-based indicators like Keltner Bands, Bollinger Bands, etc... show that following periods of contracted volatility, price action can respond like a coiled spring with sharp moves in the direction of the break.
This is a critical juncture for $SPY. The volatility squeeze will need to break out to the upside if the “Go” trend is going to continue.
AMEX:SPY
QQQ retesting neck line of Head and Shoulders?Was yesterday’s rally in the Nasdaq just a retest of the neckline of the head and shoulders or something more significant?
After falling out of the “Go” trend on a break below the neckline, the QQQ rallied sharply yesterday.
We saw bearish divergence as the GoNoGo Oscillator made a lower high as price peaked. Typical of this pattern when combined with the GoNoGo chart, we saw the GoNoGo Trend indicator fail to maintain “Go” colors during the right shoulder, with the “NoGo” happening as price broke through the neckline. We also saw heavy volume during the right side of the pattern, as depicted by the dark blue of the GoNoGo oscillator. Now we will look to the oscillator, and see if it gets rejected by the zero line as it approaches from below. If it does, it is likely price rolls over and moves lower. If the oscillator breaks back into positive territory a return to the "Go" trend is possible.
FUBO falls into a NoGoAfter a strong run, FUBO for the first time paints a "NoGo" color. We can see that the stock has consolidated in a coiling pattern for the last few months but until now was able to continue to paint the blue and aqua of the "Go" trend.
The GoNoGo Oscillator crossed below zero some bars ago which caused more concern for the "Go" trend and this current price action has seen the oscillator be rejected at the zero line.
S&P 500 remains in "Go" trend inside channelWhat a day yesterday! Financial news and social media was aflame with concerned investors discussing how terrible the morning's trading was. And yes, that first hour was something. But, its important when there is volatility to stay calm and focused on the trend!
By the close of trading, the S&P 500 had rallied and in fact closed in positive territory.
The GoNoGo Chart shows that the price action only broke out of the lower bound of the channel on an intraday basis. The close was back well within the channel. So where do we stand today? We are in a "Go" trend, we have pulled back to the support of the trend channel. The GoNoGo Oscillator has fallen to zero, where we know it should find support if the trend is healthy. We will look closely now to see if that happens, if it doesn't, and the oscillator fails at the zero line, then we'd have more cause for concern regarding the trend we are in.
10-2yr treasury spread shows strong "Go" trendHistorically, a rising spread between the 10 and 2 year treasury is a good thing for stocks. It shows confidence in the future. Looking at the GoNoGo Chart here we can see a very strong "Go" trend with price consistently making higher highs and higher lows.
The GoNoGo Oscillator has also found support at the zero line throughout this move, as we'd expect during a strong trend. After setting a new high, the GoNoGo Oscillator is coming off overbought extremes so in the short term we could see a pull back to the trend line.
SENS still trying to set a new highSENS seems to be following the same pattern as it already has twice on this chart. A sharp rise, followed by consolidation then a break out higher again.
During this last consolidation, GoNoGo Charts flagged multiple low risk entries (green circles) towards the end of the correction, both around $2,75.
The GoNoGo Trend is still a "Go" and looking strong as the GoNoGo Oscillator is overbought. We will look for price to consolidate around/above $4 if it is to move significantly higher.
Short term Dollar StrengthWe have been talking about the chart of DXY for several weeks in our Flight Path newsletter. Since originally seeing the bullish divergence between the GoNoGo Oscillator and price, we saw price break out to the upside of the downward sloping NoGo channel, and the GoNoGo Oscillator break above and find support at zero. Finally, we saw the GoNoGo Trend rotate through its colors from the bearish NoGo, to amber, and then the blue "Go" colors. This week, we have seen that strengthen to the strongest blue of a "Go" trend.
Remember though, the larger time frame trend is still a NoGo, and so our target for this new "Go" trend should be fairly close, at prior levels of market activity.
LLNW trying to find supportAfter a “Go” signal on January 20th, price rallied to break above resistance and very nearly filled the gap from October. Price has come back dramatically since then, causing the GoNoGo Oscillator to crash back to the zero line.
If this new “Go” trend is to persist, the GoNoGo Oscillator will need to find support at zero as it will if the trend is healthy. If that happens, price will likely have set a new higher low and we may see another attempt to completely fill the gap.
Bank of America fails at zero line on GoNoGo OscillatorEarlier in the week we were looking to see if Bank of America could find support at the Gap from the beginning of the year.
For this entire “Go” trend that started early November, the GoNoGo Oscillator was able to find support at the zero line as it should in a healthy trend. Yesterday’s price action caused the oscillator to drop below zero, and for the GoNoGo Trend to paint an amber “Go Fish” bar, as price fell through the support of the gap.
$EEM continues to surge in strong "Go" trendIn our Flight Path newsletter on Monday morning, we noted slight oscillator divergence and the appearance of a stronger dollar may see EEM pull back slightly. Having said that, we reminded readers that the chart in the big picture is clearly bullish! The pull back didn’t happen this week as $EEM quickly moved higher. The “Go” trend is still in place and the Oscillator is still at elevated levels.
NIO taking a breathRio is once again back at the zero line on the GoNoGo Oscillator.
Still in a “Go” trend, we are seeing momentum cool off and we will now look to see if the GoNoGo Oscillator will rally off the zero line and in which case suggest renewed momentum and a continuation of the “Go” trend that is in place in price. If that happens, we'll see a green low risk re-entry icon under price. If the zero doesn’t hold as support, we may see further correction in price. We have already pulled back a little after the short term counter trend red correction arrow was flagged a few days ago.
NVDA pauses as GoNoGo Squeeze climbs to an extremeAs price consolidates sideways we se the climbing grid of the GoNoGo Squeeze reaching extremes, indicating that we are seeing reduced volatility and market activity.
It’s as if the stock is thinking.
Currently in a “Go” trend, we will watch to see in which direction the GoNoGo Oscillator will break out of the squeeze to determine the likely direction of the next move in price. Given the trend we are in, it is slightly more likely the break out of the squeeze will be to the upside, and this will signal a trend renewal.
$JEF takes a breath, moves sidewaysIn our Monday morning pre market Flight Path newsletter we took a look at $JEF.
We mentioned that with the financials sector running up against long term resistance we may see a pause in names like Jefferies Financial Group. Indeed, we saw short term counter trend red arrows signaling that momentum having been overbought was now cooling off.
While we haven’t seen much of a correction against the trend since Monday but we have indeed seen a pause, a sideways consolidation.
GBPUSD looking to GoNoGo Oscillator for directionPound sterling is in a “Go” trend and the GoNoGo Oscillator has been largely supported by the zero-line during this move.
Now, we see after a slight weakening in price (aqua bars) the GoNoGo Oscillator has fallen and is riding the zero-line again.
We will need to see a rally back into positive territory and if we do then price will likely move higher in the short term to test 1.37.
Alternatively, if the GoNoGo Oscillator moves below zero into negative territory price would struggle.
S&P 500 stays in trend channelIn our Monday morning Flight Path newsletter we took a look at the S&P500 and noted that if prices were to fall to the bottom of the upward sloping trend channel, we would look at the interaction between the GoNoGo Oscillator and the zero line to see if it would find support.
This week, we saw that scenario play out. The GoNoGo Oscillator fell to zero, but was able to find support and bounce back into positive territory. This renewed momentum helped push price higher. It is now close to the upper bound of that channel.
MRO looking to break outMRO looks to be breaking out of a GoNoGo Squeeze to the upside while in a “Go” trend. After a period of reduced volatility that caused the GoNoGo Oscillator to ride the zero line for some time, buyers appear to have returned driving momentum positive. If price can consolidate above $7.50 look for a new high to be made.
FUBO at important levels to start new year After a 500% run since the last “Go” flag mid October, price has come back from the highs near $60. The GoNoGo trend has reflected this with paler aqua bars. Price is now at levels where we saw a clustering of market activity in November and December. We will look to see if this level provides support.
The GoNo Oscillator is currently riding the zero line and this will be key in informing the next direction of price. A rally from the zero line back into positive territory would likely suggest trend continuation. If the zero line is broken, then price could be set to fall further.
Which way for GE?Pivotal moment for GE as we see the GoNoGo Oscillator on the daily chart riding the zero line now for some time now as highlighted by the climbing grid of the GoNoGo Squeeze.
We will watch to see if there is support here and if the oscillator can break out of the squeeze into positive territory which would be bullish for price. If the oscillator is unable to find support at zero, and breaks down into negative territory this could lead to a change in trend above.
Perhaps, if an investor is looking to take profits, a look at the shorter term chart can be valuable. The 4hr chart on the right shows that in the shorter time frame the GoNoGo Trend has already detected a change to a “NoGo” trend. This came a few bars after the GoNoGo Oscillator was unable to hold the zero line.
Important moment for the dollar index!Important moment for the dollar. Having fallen so far, we have been watching to see what will happen as the GoNoGo Oscillator ran up to the zero-line from below. A break above zero would indicate weakness in the “NoGo” trend and perhaps slight cause to be bullish. Rejection at the zero line however would signal that the “NoGo” trend is still firmly in place. We are still seeing the oscillator “ride the zero line” as the direction of momentum is still to be determined and the squeeze builds.
Big day for Tesla!Tesla stock has rallied strongly since the new “Go” trend took hold over a month ago. Today is the first day of trading with $TSLA as part of the S&P 500. Prior to its inclusion excitement pushed price to close at $695 on Friday.
As we can see on the GoNoGo Chart volume has been heavy during the entirety of this run (dark blue oscillator) but on Friday volume was expectedly massive. Well over 200 million shares were trade which was over 4 times the 30 day average.
Technically, this has pushed price to overbought levels with the GoNoGo Oscillator rising to its extreme. Of course, often in a strong trend this is bullish. We will see how much higher price can go before momentum cools causing price to pause, even if only temporarily.