THE WEEK AHEAD: GOOG, AMZN, TWTR, NFLX, GLD, EEM, SPYTwo biglies announce next week: AMZN, on Thursday after market close, and GOOG, tomorrow after market close. I generally don't play these via options because they are not only large notionally, but options liquidity in them is fairly poor with wide bid/asks, making fair price fills difficult and/or subject to a lot of patient price discovery, which implies that exiting where you want may be problematic. I figured I'd nevertheless mention them, since they can arguably move the markets ... .
One underlying in particular draws my attention for a potential earnings announcement volatility contraction play -- TWTR. It has the kind of rank/implied volatility metrics that I look for in these kinds of setups (rank 67/implied 62). It announces on Friday before market open, so look to put on any play you're going to do before Thursday close. Most of the other underlyings announcing have implied volatilities in the 30's or below
Preliminarily, the August 3rd 38.5/48.5 short strangle pictured here pays 1.94 in credit with a 69% probability of profit, break evens of 37.56/50.44, delta of -.5 (neutral), a theta of 15.25, and a 50% max take profit target of .97. Since it announces Friday, my tendency is to go out another week so that I don't have to scramble on Friday in a panic to manage any broken trade. Alternatively, the August 3rd 43.5 short straddle is paying 5.28 with break evens at 38.22/48.78, with a 25% max take profit target of 1.32.
With earnings in the rear view mirror, NFLX volatility remains fairly decent here (35.5%) -- potentially enough to get one-third the width of the wings in a five wide camped out at the 20 delta in the August expiry: the August 17th 330/335/390/395 iron condor is paying 1.72 at the mid price with a buying power effect of 3.72 and break evens at 333.28 and 391.72. I say "potentially" because I'm looking at after hours quotes and the entire setup is bid 1.41/mid 1.72/ask 2.04. A September 20-delta setup -- the 320/325/410/415 -- is paying 1.80 at the mid, with more generous break evens at 323.20/411.80.
On the exchange-traded fund end of things: volatility remains in Brazil (EWZ, 32.4) and petro (XOP: 28.1).
Lastly -- the major food group directionals: GLD bounced off a level I said I would consider a long at last week -- 115.50, so I may look to take a small directional long there if we revisit that level. EEM bounced nearly $2 off of its 52-week low of 42.15 and would consider a bullish assumption directional shot if this strength proves transitory in the short-term. SPY is revisiting that 280 level that has been pesky overhead resistance since the beginning of the year, so I could see adding at least a split month downward put diagonal, particularly if your portfolio might be in need of some short delta here. As alternatives, I would consider pulling the trigger on an IWM short delta setup at 170-ish or the QQQ's at 180.50 for similar reasons (i.e., add short delta on strength).
