Google (Alphabet)
GOOG: AlphaBet Trading opportunities Coming SoonAlphaBet GOOG Neutral inside the Triangle
No trade here inside the triangle except for day traders.
But a decent break is coming close now here - a break above
the line at 1040 - it may only rally to 1043 to begin with and
then come back to 1040 again and a little lower to flip long
stops too close. And then if it's going to be a decent trade it
should bounce and start to power through 1043 -
If so can follow long to 1163.90.
And if a swing trader can hold for longer term.
But whilst within the triangle AlpaBet is still not out of the
woods. A fall below 1016.50 (not a spike) will trigger a
shorting opportunity back to 1003.64 and then to 992.63.
And as Alphabet goes, so goes the SandP- and all other
markets worldwide.
It's about a 1.5% probability that Putin is dumb enough to get
into a fight with Trump. Like with Fat boy Kim it's 99% posture
- makes him look tough after the event.
Would YOU pick a fight with USA?
Unless over the dollar. That's where the real war is going on.
GOOG 5-Day-Ahead Prediction - 04/11-04/17 PeriodArtificial Intelligence/Deep Learning Enabled 5 Day Ahead Predicted values for Alphabet Inc Class C ( GOOG ) have been plotted on the chart.
The method used in this prediction is Deep Learning based, and using complex mathematical models/methodologies to extract hidden time series features in vast amounts of GOOG related data.
The expected 5 Day Change is 1.647 %
Predictability Indicator is calculated as : 0.806
Predicted 5-Day Ahead Prices are as follows:
Wed Apr 11 Thu Apr 12 Fri Apr 13 Mon Apr 16 Tue Apr 17
1039.5 1043.0 1046.1 1048.6 1048.6
Please note that outliers/non-linearities might occur, however our Artificial Intelligence/Deep Learning Enabled predictions indicate the softened/smoothed moving direction of the stocks/commodities/World indices/ETFs/Foreign Currencies/Cryptocurrencies.
Feel free to contact us for your questions.
Is the bottom in for SPY, or is another sell-off coming? YES :P Sooooooo....That hurt....(some of us, not so much others). My last technical call/idea (see below), that a descending triangle in DJI that had broken downwards on 3/20 would lead to a sell-off after the 3/21 Fed announcement was fairly accurate...Although I had no idea that it would be precipitated by crazy announcements about tariffs, trade wars, FB scandals, TSLA concerns, AMZN Trump tweets and the like. A crazy period of volatility has continued ever since the correction started early February (again, something else I called in my second idea). That being said, what's a person to do when the market starts acting like that last volatile bipolar ex-girlfriend you dated? Just settle in with your index fund ETFs for the long term and never hedge at all, Warren Buffett-style? Sell sell SELL, take your cash, and run to your bomb shelter? Throw all your money into FAANG stocks, QQQ, SPY after another major sell-off, thinking you're getting a bargain price?
First of all, this is not ANOTHER correction we are in, but just a continuation of the correction from early February 2018, as I understand it (>10% drop). Second of all, I'm DO think this is a temporary bottom and am (short-term) BULLISH now after this latest sell-off, for a few reasons:
1) Although SPY has technically closed below it's 50 DMA and 200 DMA (all bearish signs), both the CCI and RSI are indicating drastically oversold conditions...Which as you remember lead to a big buy-back and a TEMPORARY bottom around February 7th after the first drastic early February correction. I think it's about to happen again, just based on CCI/RSI conditions. We should see a confirmatory MACD positive cross and Moving Average Cross also soon.
2) A strong line of support for SPY at 257 (which represents November 2017 levels) is holding, for now...If this holds, I think we will see a short-term buy-back in SPY, QQQ, and ALL the FAANG stocks (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, and even TSLA and NVDA...which combined represent >40% of the S&P 500). That being said, SPY MUST hold at 257 this week for my (short-term) buy-back theory to hold. Otherwise, I see the market and SPY sinking and continuing the harsh sell-off into bearish territory, with support lines at 247 (August 2017 levels) and 240 (June 2017 levels).
3) My theorized buy-back is only a temporary one, with big resistances in SPY at 268 (December 2017 levels), 272 (around the 50 DMA), and what looks like a small double-top around 278-280. I believe any buy-back may be limited to that strong resistance of 278-280. With the new potentially very positive earnings season upon us soon, there are a lot of positive tailwinds for some oversold FAANG and other SPY stocks. Personally, I think AAPL and NFLX have the "least worst/least negative news" conditions and are safest for a buy back, but that's just a hunch based on their oversold CCI/RSI
My bet for the future? A "Buy the rumor trend (before earnings April to May) and Sell the news (after earnings May to June)" situation, and I think we will just see a huge volatility swing-range for the market for more weeks btw SPY 257 and 280...all the way until summer 2018. It's definitely not the time to sell if you haven't already, but also not the time to invest ALL your money in. For sure hedge against downside if you buy right now (e.g. enter small positions, buy protective puts, hold cash, etc). Good luck to everyone...I think our crazy volatility-laden ex-girlfriend SPY market is here to stay for awhile!
(DISCLAIMER: I'm mostly cash now, but have a small call position in QQQ, NFLX, and FB, and may take a bullish position in DIA, SPY, AAPL, TSLA, and/or NVDA soon. These are just my opinions, I am definitely not a professional analyst or trader, and all investment carries risks. As everyone knows, it is very difficult to time the market. Do your due diligence and examine risks and don't base your market decisions just on my analysis)
ALPHABET: GOOG Nature of the BeastALPHABET: GOOG
Alphabet has two habits: it makes significant double tops
quite often (3 times in this 2 year bull run so far) and when it
creates a gap at earnings season it usually comes back to fill
that same gap around 4-5 months later - and when does this it
tends to do it twice, creating double bottoms as well as
double tops. This is the one stock amonst the FAANGs that
displays this kind of repeat behaviour so clearly, with one
glaring exception, shown at the blue arrow. The biggest
correction in the run is 15% in early 2016. Taking 15% off the
highs = 1000. And 20% is 940, which coincides with fixed
support at 942 and the lower supporting parallel. Perhaps in a
panic it may spike this low but looking at past behaviour it
should find support again at 987 by the close if it does fall this
far first. Major suppoort exists at 904-900. It will take a close
below here to derail this train.
ALPHABET: GOOG Volatility = OpportunityAlphabet: GOOG Curious Case of the Unfilled Gap
Normally when Google beats earnings expectaions it tends to gap up and away for a couple of months or more and then,
eventually, momentum begins to wane and it comes back off to fill the gap. It's been that way for so many quarters now
and every gap has always been filled in the end - and notice when it does get filled that moment (that day, not minute as
with Bitcoin) presents the best buying opportunity you will find...every time....because it tells you in advance where the
low should be. Helpful if you're looking to build a long position in any FANG. Works every time. Except once. That red arrow
at 900 shows the one large gap here into new high ground that has never been filled. Friday's price action has led to a second
test of the last gap created during last earnings season. For those with a technical interest there is also a fabulous island
reversal showing at the very top of the rally with a tiny gap created to left of the red arrrow at 1160 followed by the
massive fracture which begins from the same level. The ensuing bear rampage takes price all the way back to that
same gap zone before it bounces again. Mind the Gaps. They are very interesting from a technical perspective and create
some great short term trading opportunities on the rare occasions when a stock like GOOG runs into a consolidation phase.
Having bounced from the gap zone GOOG has rallied to test the underside of the structure to its left at 1046-1050 and
come to a temporary halt at 1037. Nasdaq is likely to remain volatile next week, the environment we need to go out scalping
Maybe Goog can still make a getaway from the gap zone, just as it has always done in the recent past (bar1) - but if so it
still looks like it will need a retest to prove it. Whilst unable to move and hold up above 1046-1050 it's likely to retest
996-987 again. And if at any point on Monday 987 gives way it can be shorted back to 961. Then if this level in turn fails it
can be shortred a second (or third) time to 942 and most likely back to the lower parallels where it becomes a buy
again if struck with stops below for those who may have been waiting to buy Alphabet for the longer term. A 20% decline
would create a target at 948 and 21% at 937.
On the upside Goog has to move above 1050 and then hold up at 1037 on any retest to trigger a long but only if it holds up
well at 1037 and then moves up through 1050 with some volume behind it - then it can be followed up to 1080 but run
a stop up underneath it quite tight just in case it fails. The next near term long shot from here triggers from 1085 to 1120
and then from 1125 to the top of the gap at 1159.
As to the case of the unfilled gap...to fill the missing gap the parallel will have to be broken. Google likes to fill big gaps.
It's in its nature. It could happen eventually and if it breaks below 987 come Mondaythat will be the first signal that either
the parallel or the gap itself will become the final low. More as this move develops.
Market Pullback in Coming, Be Careful!If any of you guys have seen my last post about the NASDAQ, I showed a couple retractments I thought should make us all very weary. Well, I'm here to share another interesting piece.
It's obvious the normal graph of the NASDAQ has no long term support or resistance. It's impossible, too much compounding going on. However, using the log feature in order to limit compounding, We see a BEAUTIFUL channel that has formed within the NASDAQ.
This has nothing to do with Trump or Taxes, this was a 100% EXPECTED move. However, it is obvious the move has run it's course for now. Obviously the channel is still up, so like I said in my original post, we're still in a bullish market. Expect a pullback though, and use this to help optimize profits.
Speaking of which, $AAPL earnings failure will help confirm this top, and I think by now the news obviously points to an earnings failure.
Optimize and be smart!!!!
DR PEPPER REVISITED (DPS BUY)One of my very first pairs I posted- REVISISTED!
Here is a new plan, as I think now (and at a couple other lower prices) DPS is a decent medium term buy- meaning it's not going to be a day trade, but you're not going to be holding on to it for years.
Fundamentals: In this tricky market we have had towards the end of last week and in to this week, TECH stocks (FB, NFLX, APPL, AMZN, GOOG, NVDA, AMD, TSLA) have been all taking a beating, and stocks like DPS are being dragged with it. However, if this trend continues, people will likely SWITCH from riskier, more volatile stocks and go back in to the fundamentals such as food and beverage, utilities, energy, what have you. DPS has NO reason to keep going down, the company is the exact same company it was at >95$ a share.
Anyways, enough of the fundamentals. I'm putting in my buys and WILL UPDATE THIS CHART AS TIME GOES ON AS TO WHEN TO TAKE PROFITS! So if you're joining the ride, MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW ME OR BOOKMARK THIS CHART.
GOOG - Cautious Buy - Played via Selling Put Credit Spread GOOG has closed upwards of $1,054, forming a nice bullish candlestick!
So, despite the great candlestick formation, there are some worrisome signs brewing in the Bond & Gold Markets, as well as in the Volatility Index.
This means that if investors start heading towards safe havens like these, the stock market should take a pause and/or pull back.
As a result, the way I decided to play this bullish to neutral stance of mine on GOOG, is by selling the $1,012.5 / $1,010 Dec. 15 Put Credit Spread (18 Days out) for $0.27 credit, or $27 per contract ($2,700 for a 100 lot). This means that based on the ThinkorSwim platform, this is a Delta 15 put spread, which simply implies that the options market assigns JUST a 15% chance that this option spread will be ITM (In The Money) by its expiration. In simple terms, it is highly unlikely that we will get our options assigned to us.
To summarize, being long GOOG by selling this put spread, we stand to make more than 10% Return On Our Risked Amount in 18 Days and having an 85% chance that we will be right doing so! Pretty good odds for a really good return, in a short period of time! This way, we are allowing GOOG to drop MORE THAN $30 from its current levels and STILL be able to keep ALL of our premium.
Close your position when GOOG hits $1,080 (Profit Target), or Exit the trade, if the spread increases to $0.40 (Stop Loss), for a 2R.
Happy Trading
Lindosskier
Alphabet, price on resistance analysisThe price is on a short-term resistance with low bullish volume. The stock may retest the resistance and eventually create another pullback.
The informations and the strategies discussed are NOT recommendation to buy, sell or trade any securities. They are strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.
Alphabet, sideways channel & price on trendline analysisThe stock is consolidating in a sideways channel after a strong bullish movement. Now the price is on the mid-term bullish trendline. If the price continues higher and breaks the resistance level (987.00), the minimum target is around 1065.00. If the price breaks the trendline and the support it may start a strong bearish movement. The breakout must be confirmed by very high volume to avoid fakeouts or pullbacks.
The informations and the strategies discussed are NOT recommendation to buy, sell or trade any securities. They are strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.