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WITH VIX/VXX CREEPING UP, PASSING ON AMZN/GOOG PLAYSAs anybody who has read my posts probably knows, I am not a big fan of earnings plays. As I have pointed out, they either go great (instant gratification) or terribly (several cycles of rolls to mitigate loss that tie up buying power). Me, I'm a bread-and-butter guy with a penchant for mechanical index ETF and TLT trades that supply a fairly constant level of theta (and so theta decay). They're awfully boring, but I don't require exciting to be successful. Consequently, I'm going to go with "boring" and passing on AMZN and GOOG earnings. Both of these juicy monsters could easily move the markets (depending on the outcome of earnings), and I simply want to keep my powder dry in the event of a volatility pop in the broader indices so that I can devote the buying power to putting on an index ETF play or two instead without risking the tie-up of buying power that an earnings play could entail. That being said, if you're going to play these, look to put on an earnings play some time tomorrow during the NY session. Due to the price of the underlying, the only way I would probably play these is via iron condor, so look to put on the short strikes of the setups at or near the 1 SD line, with your long strikes 2-3 strikes out from the shorts and take them off at 50% max profit. Naturally, both of these remain troublingly near their 52-week highs, so you might think about skewing the setups slightly bearish or making the setups "chicken wide" (wider than the 1 SD line) to avoid potential explosions/implosions that are far greater than the expected move. Good luck!
NASDAQ:GOOG
by NaughtyPines
EARNINGS PLAYS I WILL BITE ON -- NFLX, GOOG & GS I have a love-hate relationship with earnings plays. When they work out, I'm happier than a clam; when they don't, I swear off them, use expletives to describe them, and say that they're a total *?! waste of time. That being said, there are some I just can't pass up, usually because the premium is just too good. In the next couple of weeks, these will be NFLX, GOOG, and GS, so I am keeping a little bit of powder dry to do those. Tips: 1. Look to put on a short strangle or iron condor prior to the close of the New York session before which the earnings announcement will occur. As a general rule, I play these nondirectionally, assuming no directional bias for the underlying and generally set up the sides at or around the 1 standard deviation line for both the call and put side. 2. Use expiries that are either the weekly options expiry immediately after the announcement or, if that provides too short a time frame in which to potentially manage the trade post-announcement, the Friday expiration thereafter. I generally prefer the weekly expiries for these setups, since they sometimes give you strikes in .50 increments, which allow you a little more precision with your strikes. 3. For both the short strangle and iron condor setups, I look to take the entire setup off at 50% max profit as volatility contracts post-announcement. 4. In the event of a test of a side of the setup, look to roll that tested side out to a later expiry for at least a credit equal to the cost of putting the trade on (fees/commissions) two to three days prior to expiry and close out the untested side or allow it to expire worthless. Additionally, attempt to improve the strike prices for the rolled out side if possible. Lastly, after rolling out the tested side, match it with an oppositional trade in the same expiration as the rolled out side (for example, if the put side is tested, roll it out to a later duration and set up a call side for that same expiry, ordinarily at or around the 1 standard deviation line for that expiry). My general rule is to roll out to the expiry that is of the shortest days until expiration that provides me with an opportunity to both roll for no additional cost in fees and commissions and that allows me to improve my strike price. If a particular expiry doesn't afford you that opportunity, try a later expiry for the roll. I'll post examples of setups in these and any other "too good to pass up" high volatility, premium selling earnings plays as we get closer to the announcements .... .
NASDAQ:AMZN
by NaughtyPines
GOOG- The Trend Is Your Friend As Defined By The Green Lines.3-16 Is Google in the process of building out a 5 waves up affair? Sure looks like it. IF IF IF true then the current trend as defined by the green uptrend channel is up. Notice how this issue basically tagged trend channel support and is pulling away from it? That's where a stop can be placed, a break of the pink line. Notice how within that overall uptrend channel there is a downtrend (red) within it? That is the definition of a trend within a trend. Ever hear of the bunny hop dance? CURRENTLY you are looking at one. For educational and informational purposes only, trade are your own risk this is not a recommendation.
NASDAQ:GOOG
by Amazingpowerpatternguy
AAPL- You Need Only Ask One Question- Where IS Support.3-10 In keeping with my theme today of using support to guide your entries? Much like PANW this issue is sporting a similar set up brewing. For those who like to buy stocks in uptrends pulling back to support? You need only ask one question. Where is it? Look no further than the green trend line. Should this issue tag those zones that is where you want to see the stock stabilize. As always, trade at your own risk, these are not recommendations. Strictly for educational and informational use only
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Amazingpowerpatternguy
Bearish Target @ 456.21 | $GOOG $GOOGL #NASDAQRationale: Pure technical - Predictive/forecasting model - Gap pending 1 - Predictive/Forecasting Model: - Target = TG-Lo = 456.21 - 04 DEC 2014 2 - Pending gap favors similar technical demand 3 - Structure: Overhead resistance proven @ 567.45 - IF price break > 567.45, bearish target invalidates if closes > 598.58 - Targets affirmed at break < 518.41 David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ---------- Twitter: @4xForecaster ----------
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by 4xForecaster
5
$FB Heads $100Not only numbers is attractive but also the chart. When both agree on company's future outlook, hard to resist to stay sideline and wait correction to happen in order to enter your long waited trade. In most cases, we are right about FB and so far all trades were profitable by simply using a few signals. Very strong level to watch now is $78.56 area where some technicians may find interesting. When there is no known resistance ahead of you, but to use FIB projection..though it may give you some possible price rest, also may add up what analyst say about the company and what target price they may have on it. This combination will give you either exit levels or reload levels. We see $100 coming next 16 months if not sooner.
FLong
by Xafada
The Rise of TwitterIt's not exactly breaking-news that Twitter tumbled shortly after it's IPO. Today's close brings the stock a smidgen below its near-IPO low of 38.80 , just before the euphoria of.... absolutely nothing set in and shot the stock to an all time nominal high of 74.73 proving to be nothing more than some kick-ass fuel for fire. TWTR closed the day just below the edge of resistance. Recent price action appears to have a decent bullish footing with bullish volume and confirmation combined with bullish momentum. Should the stock retreat, I'm looking at the 35 price point for support. A gap up from here could bypass the immediate overhead resistance and possibly set the target to 47. A tweet for thought.
NYSE:TWTR
by ShiftCTRL-Group
Bulls aren't gonna make it easy for the BearsThis is a 4 hour chart of the QQQ and it shows both the bullish and bearish side of the argument. I have a bias to the bear side due to bearish divergence on the weekly chart and also the head and shoulder pattern. However, the bullish argument is that we have an inverse head and shoulder pattern ( green) opposing the Bears, and also the fact that we are still in a primary bull trend. The Bulls can drive the price all the way to 89.00 level and we could still be bearish long term. If we breach that level and get resistance level above ( 89.61)., then the bears might be in some trouble. That being said, often times in a bullish uptrend, we see the indices make new highs one to break down a few days after and turn bearish when it is least expected. I think right shoulder ( red) might take longer that many bears might be anticipating. I'm bearish medium term( 6 months), bullish short term( 3 weeks)
NASDAQ:QQQ
by aravindran1