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SPY QQQ DJI , Are We heading into a recession? The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fell over 20% since January of this year, and many are questioning whether the recent bull rally is an indication that the market may have bottomed, and if we are now recovering. Even with the fed announcing a 75bps rate hike this week, and a second consecutive quarter with negative GDP report, the market has gained over 6% just this week. Anyone can find a perma bull or perma bear argument and run with it, however I like to use historical data and context to give us an idea of what may possibly occur. So I compared the 10Y-2Y bond yield spread to see what has happened in the past, relative to the S&P500. The conclusion I came away with, is that there has not been a time when the 10Y-2Y bond yield has inverted, without a recession following it. The question is how long did it take for the full blown recession to occur, and that's the challenging part, and there is no way to predict when the actual recession will occur based on history. For example the three recessions that occurred most recently were the .com bubble, the great financial crisis of 2008, and most recently the mini Pandemic recession of 2020. All three times the chart showed clear inversions between the 10Y 2Y bond yield curve. In March of 2000 the spread between the 10Y bond yield and 2Y was -50 at the bottom of the inversion, and it took about 189 days before the stock market crashed. In 2006 the inversion bottomed around feb 2006, and the 10-2y spread was about -20, (which is actually where it stands today), and the stock market did not crash or feel the effects for another 500 days give or take. In 2020 the inversion bottomed around July of 2019 and the spread got as low as -.02, and the market collapsed in March of 2020 (many still question how the bond yields could have predicted the pandemic) nonetheless, this chart has proven to be a great predictor of recessions. So to sum it all up, using just technical analysis (the marco supports this but that another topic for another day), shows that the likelihood of another recession occurring is more likely then not, whether it will occur in a few weeks, months, or even years is the question, so I urge every trader to just keep this in mind its okay to go with the trend and make some money, however just be very cautious with your assets and keep this in mind. Best of Luck to all. This is NOT financial advice just my personal ideas.
FRED:T10Y2Y
by Wastenotime
2
Now I know my ABC, next time will you sell with me?Alphabet - Short Term - We look to Sell at 2306.60 (stop at 2426.25) The medium term bias remains bearish. The sideways consolidation continued although the market managed to post a significant low at 2037.69. Continued downward momentum from 2393 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday. Further downside is expected and we prefer to set shorts in early trade. Our profit targets will be 2001 and 1949.50 Resistance: 2393.70 / 2457.09 / 2490.00 Support: 2114.63 / 2100.92 / 2037.69 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by Saxo
1
Alphabet | Fundamental Analysis + NEXT TARGET | MUST READ | The countdown has begun. There are less than ten days to go before Alphabet's 20-to-1 stock split on July 15. Many are undoubtedly contemplating buying up the tech giant's stock before the date. The idea behind such a decision is that Alphabet stock could jump if a lower price attracts an influx of small investors. That could be a winning strategy. But here are a few reasons not to buy Alphabet stock before the split. The need for cash in the near term Never invest cash in a stock that you may need in the near term. The definition of "near term" may vary from person to person. However, a good rule of thumb is not to invest cash that you might need in the next five years. The past few months have clearly demonstrated why such a cautious stance makes sense. The S&P 500 has experienced its worst first half of the year since 1970. Alphabet is performing worse than the S&P, with its stock down about 25 percent over the year. There is no guarantee that Alphabet's impending split will serve as a positive catalyst. Amazon also had a 20-to-1 split last month. The company's stock didn't soar but instead fell. Alphabet may well suffer a similar fate. Lack of diversification Another straightforward reason why you shouldn't buy Alphabet stock before it splits is that your investments are not sufficiently diversified. The most obvious example of a lack of diversification, in this case, would be the fact that Alphabet already makes up the majority of your overall portfolio. But you may also have most of your investments in other growth stocks that are highly correlated with the movement of Alphabet stock. In that case, buying Alphabet won't help improve the diversification of your portfolio. The point of diversification is that it reduces overall risk. The old adage about not putting all your eggs in one basket is more relevant than ever. Recession Concerns If you fear a recession is just around the corner, you probably shouldn't buy Alphabet stock before the company does a split. The company's stock has not performed well during previous recessions. For example, during the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009, Google stock fell more than 60 percent. During the short pandemic recession of 2020, the stock fell 23% below its previous high. Concerns about the recession are understandable. Nearly 70% of economists surveyed by the Financial Times predict that the U.S. economy will enter a recession next year. Some investors, such as ARK Invest CEO Kathy Wood, believe we are already in a recession. You may have noticed that none of the above reasons have anything to do with Alphabet itself. The need for cash in the near term, lack of diversification, and fears of an impending recession are legitimate reasons for not buying any stock. Beyond that, we have not discussed the advantages of buying Alphabet before the split versus buying it after the split. No one knows what will happen next, as there are too many variables. However, we can think of several good reasons for buying Alphabet that have nothing to do with the split. In particular, the company has an exceptionally strong business market. The likelihood that any competitor could knock Alphabet from its position seems very low. Alphabet also has many growth drivers. Its core Google advertising business remains strong. Its Google Cloud division continues to show strong growth. And its famous "other bets" (especially Waymo's self-driving car technology business) could also contribute significantly over time. Reasons to stay away from Alphabet focus on the short term. But for investors focused on the long term, any time could be a good time to buy the stock.
NASDAQ:GOOGLLong
by FOREXN1
20
GOOGL WARNING: If 2025 is lost, 1786 will be very fastGoogle is still in a big red channel downtrend sine the ATH at 3042 failing to hold even the median line last week. The lower red channel at 2025 will be tested. If Google loses the 0.50 Fibo retracement, there will be a totally blank space (green box) until the next Fibo 0.618 at 1786. The decline will be very very quick. This capitulation most likely to happen after some impt catalyst event. Then a reversal will follow after 1786 holds. BULLISH CASE: if the black VWAP from pandemic low holds (also near 2025), Google will most probably just bounce off the lower red channel making a divergence with a slightly lower low before rally. Not trading advice
NASDAQ:GOOG
by xtremerider8