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AMZN 3292: Buy on dips to 3200, Long into E via PCS or ButterflyNFLX fired the first shot, would AMZN follow? Likely Yes. As a choppy stock, AMZN may pull back to 3200 in the next 10 days before earnings. 3200 or lower would be a nice launchpad for a long play, with PCS 3200/3150 or Call Butterfly as wide as one can to tolerate the risk (100 is my plan). Not a recommendation. AMZN is killing it with market share gains, incremental margin, and ad revenue; as are GOOGL MSFT & FB. Always invest in monopoly or riding the winner horses as long as it works. Valuation is secondary or far down below in this new market paradigm that we now know as zero interest rate, huge money printing, and growth are all it matters.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Jonas99
5
TWTR: Long SHARES into Earnings but sell ATM calls to be safeTWTR has shown significant reversal technically and 1st target is 51. It is after all a monopoly and monetization will be good, losing users from banning half of America is a short-term issue and is probably priced in. After all, most of the users on TWTR are leaning left. Cheap compared to all other major social media names. Charts don't lie, enough people want to own it and enough people are using it and enough cloud to be considered a monopoly for a long time to come. Am inclined to sell ATM covered call to collect some premium just in case the user # is really bad and the street care, then they may not.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by Jonas99
3
AMZN 3120: Long into Earnings (NFLX replay) Target 3500Bulls may finally be rewarded on Feb 4, if the market holds. AMZN has a very similar setup to NFLX, consolidated in a long triangle for months waiting for direction. 3100 is strong support, PCS 3100/3050 would be one way of participating in the earning move. Or 3100/3090 whatever the risk tolerance is. Upside butterfly of 3300/3400/3500 also a good lotto. Nothing is guaranteed though. Incrementally, AMZN is likely to see better comp than NFLX as all the small retailers have been wiped out and its cloud business is likely doing good in this anything digital conversion. My other meg cap favor is GOOGL, youtube is killing it. Good luck and mind your risk! Obviously, I am just a newbie talking loud myself and it is not any sort of advice as with all my charts.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Jonas99
4
$NFLX 500: Exploded to 565; Could AMZN follow the same path? Having missed the explosive earning move, I want to reflect if the chart had provided us with some clues but I missed. Yes. The clues are: 1. A long rectangle box since July as the stock was being accumulated? The longer the rectangle, the larger the move, once breaking out the box. 2. A 3D Squeeze was fired and served as the launchpad for the explosive move post earnings (500 to 565) or 2X expected move. 3. STOCH/RSI is not overbought and somewhat in favor of buys. Fundamentally, NFLX is benefiting from its pricing power as well as the Covid factor. There would be happy co-exist among the streamers still. The message here is to pay CLOSE attention to stocks with long accumulation patterns and coupled with a squeeze (esp. the 3D). AMZN is in a similar TA pattern so will pay close attention before earnings on Feb4.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by Jonas99
2
SPY 3760: More correction to come, 3600 and 3500 as SupportThe catalyst would be a change of power and market waking up to the fact the US would be less competitive overall in the world economy for years to come. Then there is the tired bull that simply needs to rest and mean reversion. In the background though is the massive liquidity created to benefit the market mostly, sadly not so much the little people. At the current level, the cost of hedging for a correction to 3600 and 3500 is very low. So Put Butterfly and 2ATR IC for some coffee money. On my shopping list though, in a correction, are GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, COST, CRM, TWTR, BB, AEP, JPM and etc. Most are very well established companies with monopolistic businesses. Peace and love to humanity.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by Jonas99
2
TWTR 45: Use rally to exit as user base would be down this QI love TWTR and its monopoly position. The co is losing users after giving fat fingers to 75 mil Americans who voted for the other ticket. Technically it is oversold on RSI but not on MACD with increased volume on this decline. Using rally as an exit opportunity but not shorting the stock as it is a monopoly and its long-term outlook is excellent. I would be inclined to be a seller of PCS at 40 levels, hopefully, post earnings after all the bad news are priced in. GOOGL is my favorite as a social media co as the educationally focused contents are immensely useful and valuable. Technically it is the best-looking mega-cap for which I would be eagerly going long on dips, perhaps PCS 1650/1600. FB is still cheap compared to the market and the fervor of "digital stocks" so I would be buyers on dips too.
NYSE:TWTR
by Jonas99
11
SPY $381: could push to $383+ as CMF & Momentum remain strongI was wrong in calling corrections at 370 (of SPY), looking back, at the time STOCH/RSI still pointed upwards and CMF was very positive and still is. Where do we go from here? Based on the trend line and momentums (RSI still has room) and squeeze is yet to fully fire to upside, I could see we continue to push higher to at least 383+ possible 385. It is however likely short-lived so the strategy remains the same: prepare for a correction with Cheap Put Butterfly. Jan 29 Put Butterfly 375/360/345 Feb Put Butterfly 375/360/345 Much that I like to call a correction after a long extended rally, I am mindful of the fact that money supplies have grown so much in the past few years and there are no easy investment alternatives elsewhere (bonds, Golds, and TLT all-seeing huge money outflow, and into equity). So the tide goes up with the ocean wave. After all, Equity is the place to be. I would not be hugely short but mindful of the fact corrections are inevitable so be conservative until better entry arrives. If and when corrections occur, my shopping list would be TWTR, CRM, BB, PFE, FDX, COST, HD, and obviously the monopolies that continue to print money and control our lives: GOOGL AMZN, AAPL, and SPY as a proxy for the market which yields better than the treasury.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Jonas99
3
Game Plan #stocksGoogle has been dancing around the range high (1725 of rectangle) for 2 months now. Most of FAANG has underperformed recently. The reflation trade has begin to show real signs of life and tech has seemed to be where people are leaving. The question is how to trade the next move? At range highs and lows is where I like to make decisions because they are defined risk/reward opportunities. If we can clear above the range high and the trendline the play will be to the upside. If we get more selling and we break the low of the more near term range (smaller rectangle 1694) then the play will be to the downside for a short term trade. Absolute rate of change has been weak so I am leaning bearish but I will wait for price to confirm. If google bounces back strong and rate of change confirms the move then I will turn bullish and play the breakout. Please like, dislike, or comment!
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by IngenuityTrading