Nasdaq short term analysis: possible rally after Apple-led slumpNews came out that the US and China are starting negotiation on trade dispute, and Asia markets are mostly up despite slump in US stock market overnight.
With regards to China, the economy is rapidly deteriorating , with December PMI flashing below 50, the level that defines contraction and expansion. The US is the largest export country for China, so that the Chinese government is incentivized to make a deal with President Trump. The US, on the contrary, stock market is the pillar of capital market and personal wealth. The sever dropping in Nasdaq and SP500 will probably mount considerable measure to President Trump , as he considered the booming stock market as one of his great " achievements ". In light of recent turmoil and uncertainties, I'd say the US would also like to make a deal to prop up market sentiment.
Technically, the recent recovery is just a short covering practice. I expect more selling taking place, once the economy indicator worsen or trade talks run short of expectations.
GOOGL
What if GOOGLE falls?In this screencast I look at GOOGLE which is Alphabet, Apple, Netflix, Nvidia. The picture of meltdown is serious. Google is at a key level of congestion which could break down.
Overall the technology sector stocks which dominate Wall Street and other indices across the world could cause a domino effect.
Market looks constructive, but still a ways to go!!!Been a while since I've done a true VWAP analysis of the market here, but after today's rally, it seems like a great time.
Basically, the market has been oversold for a while and everyone knew a bounce was coming. Taking a short position this week was quite insane just because a face-ripper of a rally was imminent and the R:R just wasn't worth it.
Over the past month, we've had this major break down in price as the market consolidated towards the FOMC meeting and broke to the downside of the triangle after the event occured, leading to a major decline.
Today, we saw a nice rally up into the VWAP from the FOMC meeting. This is quite constructive, letting us know the market is retesting some very key points here. The main supply level that people should be highly aware of is the 250-255 level, and if you don't feel that's quite important (even though that's where the orange VWAP is which acted as resistance before FOMC and where the resistance trendline of the triangle is) you should absolutely be aware of the 258-262 level, which basically supported the market since October until we broke below it.
Anyway, it's tough to be short at the moment, at least in the near-term time frame just because of the levels of oversold the market has been. Rallies like this do happen in downtrending markets though, because of the heightened volatility, so still be protective of your capital!!
If you were to take a long position (which is far from a poor idea), keep an eye on the red VWAP which is the average cost basis since the open today. It's important that people who are buying into this rally remain profitable, because if that fact changes, panic could easily restart here in the markets.
In order for my overall neutral/bearish long term outlook to change, I would need to see the market get up to around 255-260 and bounce in that range for a little before breaking that green VWAP to the upside. First though, it must break this downtrending resistance line that's been quite textbook.
Real quick, before I end this post, here is a picture of the SPY over the long term:
Basically, trendlines are not SUPPOSED to (but can be) be perfect lines that price always bounces at. All you need to take from this is that the market is at a very very very long term Log trendline (and non-log trendline from 2008 if you prefer that), so this could possibly be the reversal point that was needed, but I would personally rather have the market not test support lines as I believe in theory that trend lines are weakened the more they're tested, contrary to the opinion that many think trendlines strengthen the more they're tested.
Anway, that's it from me. In the tradition of me always ending my post on some sort of advice to take away from this whole thing, all I can say is protect your capital!! Cash is a position, and everyone forgets that but right now it's more important now than ever to realize that if your confidence in the market is subpar, get out of the market! Try to think clearly and don't panic, but I once heard this saying in a podcast (I believe it was the one hosted by J.C. Parets), a pilot who was on that podcast said "There is a saying as a pilot, that you would rather be on the ground wishing you were in the sky, than in the sky wishing you were on the ground" and that saying could not be more applied to the markets in my opinion. You should never have 100% confidence in any move you make, just because that means your risk management skills are lacking, but you absolutely should be weary of allocating capital if you don't feel you're in the right mindset.
If you have any questions, feel free to leave them below. Thanks.
The Fall of Search Giant.Google has been grown exponentially since its inception.
However all big run comes to end.We should see a correction coming soon.
For google to stay bullish(unlikely) it should stay above 1014$ .However,if it breaks down then hell will break loose.(548 & 358)
Head And shoulder formation
5 wave completion of Elliot cycle
Breaking below historical log trendline.
Being an investor this is profit taking zone..
Being a buyer patience is the key here.
ALPHABET INC. (GOOGL) Crash Incoming (~20% Drop On Its Way)ALPHABET INC., Google's parent company, is no exception to what is coming to conventional markets. There are many very strong signals pointing towards a crash... and this crash is already on its way.
GOOGL has already dropped by over 18% since hitting a All Time High on the July 2018... More red is on its way.
Let's take a look at the signals for learning and entertainment purposes:
Let's start with the MACD. On the left hand side, you can see a red dotted line with an "X" in the middle... This is back in 2008. When the MACD crossed below 0, the price crashed really hard. When you look at the right hand side of the indicator, you can notice that the same event is taking place now. This is a strong bearish signal.
If you have been reading my analysis you should be pretty familiar now with the signal called "divergence"... This is going on here as well on both MACD and RSI (Bearish Divergence).
GOOGL broke and closed below EMA50. It was quickly rejected when it tried to move back up. If GOOGL breaks and closes below EMA100 (blue line), we can aim straight for our "MAIN TARGET" on chart.
RSI & MACD are bearish.
These signals are very strong and clear... ALPHABET INC. (GOOGL) will continue to crash. Others are also crashing...
Apple:
Bank Of America:
S&P500:
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I appreciate your support.
Namaste.
Don't Be A MoMo $FB $AAPL $AMZN $NFLX $GOOGLWhen I was younger, there was a saying "don't be a momo." It was essentially slang pejorative for don't be silly, dumb, stupid etc.
Over the recent sell-off, you've definitely not wanted to be a mo-mentum bag holder. Whether it's FB, AAPL, GOOGL, NFLX, it's all got smashed, and it's been a cause of concern. Q3-18 earnings from such household names have been good, but that's literally old news. The forward guidance, though, has been disappointing. And, when you trade 84x EBITDA you're getting smashed.
The volatility complex has been uber active, and hedging costs following AMZN earnings are soaring. Traders are now paying twice that of upside calls for protection.
There has also a huge VIX of volatility (SKEW) blowout as the momentum index has cascaded 21 percent lower, rivaling most emerging markets.
The SKEW (orange; lower plane inverted scale) did reprice as much as the vol blowup in early February (which I warned of on Jan. 29). But, it's enough to give you heartburn.
As growth and inflation (via D-R-I-P) continue to get repriced going forward, there may not be much love left.
GOOGL: VERY WEAKHey everybody, today I would like to talk about Google after 8 days of Earning Report has been published.
Now, I've already mentioned in my last Idea that I wrote about Google that " the 20MA cross under the 80MA and for sure my "personal thoughts" saying this is not a good sign because the price now will have many challenges to achieve".
I also mentioned a set of obstacles that will face price moves as: "
a) trying to not fall back to "Oversold area"
b) break $1105 level
c) Cross and close above 20MA
d) break $1166 level
e) break $1190 level
f) Cross and close above 80MA
"
And if you take a look at the chart you can see that when Google price gets into one of these challenges the price get tired and weak so it fall down again and on and on..
So, Why Google price is so weak right now?
In fact, at the moment there are many factors affecting the price of Google, including the quality of the bad news, since after Google revealed the latest phones (Pixel 3 and Pixel 3XL), the reactions were bad about these devices because of the external design Of the phone and of course, the price of the company stock will be affected in the current period any news, whether positive or negative.
This is also directly related to the liquidity flowing into the stock.
I have already mentioned that Google is one of the largest technology companies in the world, but as far as the stock market is concerned, Google shares suffer significantly from the weakness of liquidity flowing to it, where the average volume of folium in the last 10 days To 2.425M. These figures are very small compared to the rest of the leading companies.
The second factor that affected the movement of the stock is the inability of traders to trust the big movement of the share, I mean that most traders on Google shares are seeking to close their balconies on a daily basis for this reason we see sharp fluctuations in the value of the stock, so those wishing to do long trades hope or open deals up To six months or more, they will decline due to weak returns for this type of deals.
Future expectations:-
In addition to the challenges that will face the price in the next phase, which I wrote in my previous idea, which is called "GOOGL: 'ER' EXPECTATIONS", I can see that the price movement is promising as the stock is now "Oversold" in the weekly chart. the price tried to break 80MA but was refused to penetrate by the bulls and this indicates the desire of the bulls to perform a correction Masari during the coming period.
So yeah, this is "my thought" about Google for the Next period, To the Next Sunday, have fun.
GOOGL earnings buyGOOGL appears to be in a good position coming into earnings. It's seen a significant pullback over the last month largely due to the broader market. GOOGL earnings are expected to be solid as well which will calm investors after a rough month. I gave some simple technical reasons on the chart, as well as GOOGL being a fundamentally sound company.
Thoughts?
-Kristian
Tech is kill. AAPL, AMZN, GOOGLBeautiful exponential rise for years. Blows off over the upper trendline.
Very similar to MSFT, CSCO, GE in the 90's.
Tech bubble 2.0 about to pop.
AAPL will be strongest thanks to its cash flow and cash level.
After the crash (over 50% for AMZN and GOOGL) the prices will likely recover similar to how CSCO and MSFT did but in 20 years AAPL, AMZN and GOOGL will still be at or sub 1 trillion in market cap.
Google inc target $991/$1000 by NovemberDAILY CHART: (LEFT CHART): Currently shows a daily bullish divergence It will do a short-term pull-back to the $1150 zone (important resistance and top of the downtrend channel) But it will be reject it, next target will be $991/$1000 by November.
Monthly chart: (RIGHT CHART): Is negative, it has a Bearish divergence confirmed and shows a spinning top reversal candle on August at all-time highs followed by a bearish hanging man on September, the candle we see for October is bearish too and it will probably close as a long wick hanging man, confirming that Google will hit $991/$1000 level on November.
Google triangle, up or downLooks like a very clear triangle, like every triangle it can always break out both ways. When looking at the bigger picture i would say we will break upwards to retest that red resistance zone, which would form a bigger bear flag if the gets rejected there. I will wait for a clear breakout before taking a position on this one.
GOOGL: 'ER' EXPECTATIONSHello everybody, hope you all doing great, today I would love to share with you guys "my personal perspective" about Google and talk letter bit about the future price movement.
Now, you can see the price in the chart up is moving downward, basically Google has a really annoying Chart than ever, is this will effect on her price actions? Yes. because before traders make any kind of decision whatever if they wanna buy or sell they will take a look at the chart and see the price movement of the company or the asset, and I know Googles chart will make a lot of traders confuse because of the random movement "Note: I don't like this word (random) in trading, because I believe there's a reason for every move." but anyway;
Before we get into the "ER" and how it will make a big move to the price let me first take about the current price situation:
alright so we can see in the chat that the 20MA cross under the 80MA and for sure my "personal thoughts" saying this is not a good sign because the price now will have many challenges to achieve, like:
a) trying to not fall back to "Oversold area"
b) break $1105 level
c) Cross and close above 20MA
d) break $1166 level
e) break $1190 level
f) Cross and close above 80MA
And after all of this, we'll be able to see the price stars correction movements while the price moving in Stochastic from "Oversold are" into "Overbought"
Why "ER" will make a huge difference:
Okay so on 25 Oct "18 the ER will release and there are 4 days left for that. the release date will be on "Thursday" so 1 day before market close and this is good because we know how the stock market moving in "Friday" so I think bulls will pump a big amount of volume in Pre-market price so they can hand the 6 challenges that I've been mentioned. and Next month we can see a correction in progress.
So yeah, this is "my thought" about Google for the Next week, To the Next Sunday, have fun.
AMZN & GOOGL: DIFFERENT TWINSHello everybody, hope y'all had an amazing weekend, today I would love to talk about AMZN and GOOGLE and talk about happens for the last week as usual.
First I want to talk about those two stock in one post together for a reason, because I saw that those two stocks moving side by side 70% of the time last week also they are now about to face the same problem or "challenge" in another word.
alright so let's start with Amazon, we can see the candlestick in Daily timeframe at 11 Oct "18 ended as a Doji and in the same Date the same Candle in Google was ended up as a Doji, But the main difference Is that Google candle ended up as a "Bullish" candle but with Amazon the Doji was Red "Bearish".
And we all know that when Doji made after a gap down happened that's mean we could see signs of a revers. of course this is not a 100% sign of a revers that's why we need more information and other values to confirm if revers going to happen or not.
Amazon and Google in Daily timeframe they're both in Oversold area if we check on the Stochastic, So this gives us a better idea where the next move going to be, So now the price is Oversold and we have a Doji (Morning Star) But, we still not have a great sign of a revers, and the reason for that is:
Amazon is far away about 4% from the 80MA and 5% from the first resistance level ($1878.57)
&
Google is far away about 7% from the 80MA and 4% from the first resistance level ($1165.92)
And my 'personal perspective' I wouldn't see my confirmation sign if the price still moving oversold, NOTE: when the price come down to oversold zone it's important to know it may stay moving in the same area for a long time without showing any sign of revers, like Facebook for example.
and for me, No confirmation, No position, it's easy.
So, what's the next move could be:
I said that Amazon and Google moving side by said last week but of course the next week the results will be different because every stock have a different kind of challenges,
Depending on the current situation, the first thing Amazon & Google need to have next week is big amounts of liquidity, and I guess this going to happen because the market now represents a good opportunity for buyers what's gonna move the market up.
Amazon to win in the first challenge when it came to volume but for Google, we need to wait and see how the traders "bullish specifically" will respond.
After breaking the 80MA it will be easy for Amazon to break the Resistance level of($1878.57) when the 80MA will act as a support because of the small space between the level and the MA. then, of course, the price will be outside of Oversold zone which start show great signs of a revers. and Correction in progress.
But the case is litter bit different with Google because the next challenge after "having a big amount of volume next week" is to break the resistance level at ($1165.92) which gonna make the price have enough power to break 20MA and then we can see sign of a revers and NOT correction, because with Google the Correction won't happen before the price break 80MA.
* also we shouldn't forget the new phone of Google "Pixle 3" which going to effect nigative on the stock price because of the bad news.
alright so, this month there's a lot of Drama happened but yeah, Nothing random I mean every move was for a reason. this is "my thought" about Amazon & Google for the Next week, To the Next Sunday, have fun.
GOOGL: NOT OPTIMISTICHello guys, hope y'all doing well. today I'll talk about Google and what happened with the stock last week.
Now if you check out on my chart up, you'll see that the price since (27 Jul "18) going down and this moves give us a clear idea about what movement of the price.
I said it before and I'll say it again, the major problem of Google is the Average Volume, I mean we talk about the 3rd biggest company in the world when it comes to the MKT-Cap size. and having about $1.760M of the Average Volume this is not right, anyway;
Now we can read from the last price movement that the $1165.92 is going to be powerful support level, and it's not hard to tell why when you look at the period between 6 and 24 of Sep "18. you can see how the price stick between $1165.92 and $1190.04 levels. so when the price get rejected from one of those levels shouldn't be a surprise. a specially when price come from an Overbought zone, you check out to the Stochastic.
Alright, so what the next move could be?:
Now look at the bands of the Bollinger and you'll see the Upper-line and Lower-line is a staring to expand and this is generally good to give the price bigger space to move BUT,.
But we have a problem, this expansion will be invalid for a reason, if noted at first I said that Google hasn't the good value of Liquidity (Volume) in the market, So even if the expand happened, the price need volume to push him up and down right?. So this is why I think that the price gonna act as the same as the last time he been in this situation.
in fact, The price has a lot of challenges like:
1) break $1190.04 levels
2) close above 20MA
2) keep moving up and try to close above 80MA
3) then try to make a correction path to...
4) break the last highest high.
So yeah, this is "my thought" about Google for the Next week, To the Next Sunday, have fun.