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Nasdaq short term analysis: possible rally after Apple-led slumpNews came out that the US and China are starting negotiation on trade dispute, and Asia markets are mostly up despite slump in US stock market overnight. With regards to China, the economy is rapidly deteriorating , with December PMI flashing below 50, the level that defines contraction and expansion. The US is the largest export country for China, so that the Chinese government is incentivized to make a deal with President Trump. The US, on the contrary, stock market is the pillar of capital market and personal wealth. The sever dropping in Nasdaq and SP500 will probably mount considerable measure to President Trump , as he considered the booming stock market as one of his great " achievements ". In light of recent turmoil and uncertainties, I'd say the US would also like to make a deal to prop up market sentiment. Technically, the recent recovery is just a short covering practice. I expect more selling taking place, once the economy indicator worsen or trade talks run short of expectations.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Pento_Investment
Market looks constructive, but still a ways to go!!!Been a while since I've done a true VWAP analysis of the market here, but after today's rally, it seems like a great time. Basically, the market has been oversold for a while and everyone knew a bounce was coming. Taking a short position this week was quite insane just because a face-ripper of a rally was imminent and the R:R just wasn't worth it. Over the past month, we've had this major break down in price as the market consolidated towards the FOMC meeting and broke to the downside of the triangle after the event occured, leading to a major decline. Today, we saw a nice rally up into the VWAP from the FOMC meeting. This is quite constructive, letting us know the market is retesting some very key points here. The main supply level that people should be highly aware of is the 250-255 level, and if you don't feel that's quite important (even though that's where the orange VWAP is which acted as resistance before FOMC and where the resistance trendline of the triangle is) you should absolutely be aware of the 258-262 level, which basically supported the market since October until we broke below it. Anyway, it's tough to be short at the moment, at least in the near-term time frame just because of the levels of oversold the market has been. Rallies like this do happen in downtrending markets though, because of the heightened volatility, so still be protective of your capital!! If you were to take a long position (which is far from a poor idea), keep an eye on the red VWAP which is the average cost basis since the open today. It's important that people who are buying into this rally remain profitable, because if that fact changes, panic could easily restart here in the markets. In order for my overall neutral/bearish long term outlook to change, I would need to see the market get up to around 255-260 and bounce in that range for a little before breaking that green VWAP to the upside. First though, it must break this downtrending resistance line that's been quite textbook. Real quick, before I end this post, here is a picture of the SPY over the long term: Basically, trendlines are not SUPPOSED to (but can be) be perfect lines that price always bounces at. All you need to take from this is that the market is at a very very very long term Log trendline (and non-log trendline from 2008 if you prefer that), so this could possibly be the reversal point that was needed, but I would personally rather have the market not test support lines as I believe in theory that trend lines are weakened the more they're tested, contrary to the opinion that many think trendlines strengthen the more they're tested. Anway, that's it from me. In the tradition of me always ending my post on some sort of advice to take away from this whole thing, all I can say is protect your capital!! Cash is a position, and everyone forgets that but right now it's more important now than ever to realize that if your confidence in the market is subpar, get out of the market! Try to think clearly and don't panic, but I once heard this saying in a podcast (I believe it was the one hosted by J.C. Parets), a pilot who was on that podcast said "There is a saying as a pilot, that you would rather be on the ground wishing you were in the sky, than in the sky wishing you were on the ground" and that saying could not be more applied to the markets in my opinion. You should never have 100% confidence in any move you make, just because that means your risk management skills are lacking, but you absolutely should be weary of allocating capital if you don't feel you're in the right mindset. If you have any questions, feel free to leave them below. Thanks.
AMEX:SPY
by croganm
ALPHABET INC. (GOOGL) Crash Incoming (~20% Drop On Its Way)ALPHABET INC., Google's parent company, is no exception to what is coming to conventional markets. There are many very strong signals pointing towards a crash... and this crash is already on its way. GOOGL has already dropped by over 18% since hitting a All Time High on the July 2018... More red is on its way. Let's take a look at the signals for learning and entertainment purposes: Let's start with the MACD. On the left hand side, you can see a red dotted line with an "X" in the middle... This is back in 2008. When the MACD crossed below 0, the price crashed really hard. When you look at the right hand side of the indicator, you can notice that the same event is taking place now. This is a strong bearish signal. If you have been reading my analysis you should be pretty familiar now with the signal called "divergence"... This is going on here as well on both MACD and RSI (Bearish Divergence). GOOGL broke and closed below EMA50. It was quickly rejected when it tried to move back up. If GOOGL breaks and closes below EMA100 (blue line), we can aim straight for our "MAIN TARGET" on chart. RSI & MACD are bearish. These signals are very strong and clear... ALPHABET INC. (GOOGL) will continue to crash. Others are also crashing... Apple: Bank Of America: S&P500: Thanks a lot for reading... Hit LIKE for more analysis straight to your inbox... I appreciate your support. Namaste.
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by MasterAnanda
4
Don't Be A MoMo $FB $AAPL $AMZN $NFLX $GOOGLWhen I was younger, there was a saying "don't be a momo." It was essentially slang pejorative for don't be silly, dumb, stupid etc. Over the recent sell-off, you've definitely not wanted to be a mo-mentum bag holder. Whether it's FB, AAPL, GOOGL, NFLX, it's all got smashed, and it's been a cause of concern. Q3-18 earnings from such household names have been good, but that's literally old news. The forward guidance, though, has been disappointing. And, when you trade 84x EBITDA you're getting smashed. The volatility complex has been uber active, and hedging costs following AMZN earnings are soaring. Traders are now paying twice that of upside calls for protection. There has also a huge VIX of volatility (SKEW) blowout as the momentum index has cascaded 21 percent lower, rivaling most emerging markets. The SKEW (orange; lower plane inverted scale) did reprice as much as the vol blowup in early February (which I warned of on Jan. 29). But, it's enough to give you heartburn. As growth and inflation (via D-R-I-P) continue to get repriced going forward, there may not be much love left.
Q
by TheMacroStrategist
GOOGL: VERY WEAKHey everybody, today I would like to talk about Google after 8 days of Earning Report has been published. Now, I've already mentioned in my last Idea that I wrote about Google that " the 20MA cross under the 80MA and for sure my "personal thoughts" saying this is not a good sign because the price now will have many challenges to achieve". I also mentioned a set of obstacles that will face price moves as: " a) trying to not fall back to "Oversold area" b) break $1105 level c) Cross and close above 20MA d) break $1166 level e) break $1190 level f) Cross and close above 80MA " And if you take a look at the chart you can see that when Google price gets into one of these challenges the price get tired and weak so it fall down again and on and on.. So, Why Google price is so weak right now? In fact, at the moment there are many factors affecting the price of Google, including the quality of the bad news, since after Google revealed the latest phones (Pixel 3 and Pixel 3XL), the reactions were bad about these devices because of the external design Of the phone and of course, the price of the company stock will be affected in the current period any news, whether positive or negative. This is also directly related to the liquidity flowing into the stock. I have already mentioned that Google is one of the largest technology companies in the world, but as far as the stock market is concerned, Google shares suffer significantly from the weakness of liquidity flowing to it, where the average volume of folium in the last 10 days To 2.425M. These figures are very small compared to the rest of the leading companies. The second factor that affected the movement of the stock is the inability of traders to trust the big movement of the share, I mean that most traders on Google shares are seeking to close their balconies on a daily basis for this reason we see sharp fluctuations in the value of the stock, so those wishing to do long trades hope or open deals up To six months or more, they will decline due to weak returns for this type of deals. Future expectations:- In addition to the challenges that will face the price in the next phase, which I wrote in my previous idea, which is called "GOOGL: 'ER' EXPECTATIONS", I can see that the price movement is promising as the stock is now "Oversold" in the weekly chart. the price tried to break 80MA but was refused to penetrate by the bulls and this indicates the desire of the bulls to perform a correction Masari during the coming period. So yeah, this is "my thought" about Google for the Next period, To the Next Sunday, have fun.
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by FirasMohamed