GOOGL Long Term AnalysisNASDAQ:GOOGL Hi guys,
So this is my analysis for GOOGL . Please bear in mind that this is a long term analysis and it could take time to play out.
As you can see GOOGL was in a clear Uptrend (Higher Highs, Higher Lows). We created ATH in November 2021 and since then price tried to break that level in January 2022 but that attempt to break it was not successful.
We created Lower High and finally in April 2022 trendline indicating uptrend was broken. Since then as you can see, price is creating Lower Highs and Lower Lows indicating we are in Downtrend.
Possible reversal zones are Monthly Fibonacci Levels and Historical Demand Zones (where people are BUYING this stock). So that is a pretty nice alignment if you ask me and this are the zones I will be looking to place some buys if we reach them.
For GOOGL to go up we need to break previous Lower High and of course a Downtrend Trendline as you can see on the chart. However, this can happen even now if this Lower Low holds and we start creating Higher Highs and Higher Lows to indicate return of the BUYERS and potential Uptrend, then we just follow the break of each Lower High from the past and that is exactly the point where you can consider taking some profit as these are the points where price is likely to make a pullback.
This is not a financial advice :)
Trade safe
Alphabet Price Prediction 2023 (LONG)Alphabet Long price prediction for end of 2023 following Gann analysis and Fibonacci retracement, as usual.
LEVELS
Conservative: 98.30 USD (+ 9%)
Moderate: 103.40 USD (+ 13.7%)
Most realistic: 107.3 USD (+ 17.9%)
High Risk ( out of Fibonacci ): 113.3 USD (+ 24.46%)
Unrealistic ( still inside of Gann ): 130 USD (+ 42.75%)
SVB: Announces bankruptcy!
The situation at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is not particularly complicated. In short, they borrowed short and invested long, mismanaged their liquidity, and caused their own demise. The specific steps were as follows: low-interest deposit-taking, overzealous investment in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), short-term liquidity gaps, forced selling of assets, and market panic.
Low-interest deposit-taking: Between 2020 and 2021, due to the Federal Reserve's extended period of 0% interest rates, there was a huge financing boom in the tech industry, with a significant portion of cash flowing into SVB. SVB's deposit liabilities surged from $61.8 billion at the end of 2019 to $189.2 billion at the end of 2021, with interest rates on this portion of deposits only around 0.25%.
Overzealous investment in MBS: With so much low-interest money, SVB naturally engaged in carry trade. Typically, banks focus on lending, but SVB invested a large portion of its funds in MBS. Their financial statements showed they held $13.8 billion of MBS at the end of 2019, which had grown to $98.2 billion by the end of 2021. In other words, over 65% of the deposits they took in went towards buying MBS.
Short-term liquidity gap: Normally, investing in MBS is not a problem because they can be redeemed at maturity. But SVB's problem was that it held too many MBS and had too few short-term liquid assets. In today's high-interest rate environment, tech companies are struggling to survive and are gradually withdrawing money from their deposits, causing SVB's liquidity pressures to soar.
Forced selling of assets: To solve the liquidity problem, management chose the cheapest option, which was to sell their MBS holdings. But now, market interest rates had increased from nearly 0 to 5% for 2-year Treasury bonds, and asset prices had fallen significantly in sync. Selling $21 billion of assets resulted in an $1.8 billion loss.
Market panic: For SVB, the $1.8 billion loss was still manageable because their shareholder equity was $16 billion. However, the problem was with the $100 billion of MBS that they had not yet sold. If there was a run on the bank, this could result in a potential loss of $15 billion, causing SVB to go bankrupt. Therefore, there was a great deal of panic in the market, causing the stock price to plummet by 60% in a single day.
SVB has now declared bankruptcy, and the US government has intervened. It is being managed by a specialized institution.
When a bank of this size collapses, there are bound to be chain reactions. The institutions known to be affected include Circle. For those who invest in stocks, they may not have heard of it, but those who invest in cryptocurrencies certainly have, as the most famous stablecoin, USDC, is issued by Circle. The total amount is $40 billion, and in today's announcement, they revealed that $3.3 billion of their assets were stuck in SVB, accounting for almost 8%.
This means that those who invest in cryptocurrencies suddenly find that their $100 has shrunk to $92. To say that it's a seismic event is not an exaggeration.
There are likely dozens of institutions of a similar scale to Circle that are also trapped, but for various reasons, they are not disclosing their situation. We'll have to wait and see when they come forward.
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ALPHABET INC ( NASDAQ:GOOGLE) Buying OpportunityMarketBeat reports:
Saddle Point Management L.P. bought a new position in Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL - Get Rating) in the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund bought 2,652 shares of the information services provider's stock, valued at approximately $254,000. Alphabet comprises approximately 8.8% of Saddle Point Management L.P.'s holdings, making the stock its 7th largest holding.
Other large investors have also recently made changes to their positions in the company. ( Positions Increased)
GOOGLE has been the topic of a number of recent analyst reports. Loop Capital increased its price objective on shares of Alphabet from $120.00 to $125.00 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research report on Wednesday, February 8th. Morgan Stanley increased their target price on shares of Alphabet from $125.00 to $135.00 and gave the company an "overweight" rating in a research report on Friday, February 3rd. Barclays increased their target price on shares of Alphabet from $150.00 to $160.00 and gave the company an "overweight" rating in a research report on Friday, February 3rd. MKM Partners increased their target price on shares of Alphabet from $120.00 to $126.00 in a research report on Friday, February 3rd. Finally, Rosenblatt Securities dropped their target price on shares of Alphabet from $130.00 to $128.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, February 3rd. Five research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating, thirty-three have given a buy rating and one has issued a strong buy rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, the company has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus price target of $132.32.
Technical Overview and Our Trade Idea
Strong Support Zone: 83.00 $ – 86.00 $
Closing Price: 90.90 $
Cycle Sniper Bullish Deviation on Daily but headed south.
Buy: If the price tests and holds the support.
Strong Buy: When the price breaks and closes above 97.00 $
Targets: 100$, 106$, 115$, 122$.
Good Luck!
MY THOUGHT ON ALPHABET INC STOCKAsset is currently trading in a channel that is also bullish. From my chart, this asset has kissed FIB 38.2 and now retracing.
There is possibility of dropping down to the next lower FIB before the bullish ride will commence toward $102 and then $108
Follow, like and share your thoughts on the asset
036. PIGGISH PLAY - Long Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)I hate to say it but I love Google. Everything it touches is amazing.
And that's all for fundamental analysis.
On the technical side, the stock has been showing signs of major bullish life. For the past month, I've observed that GOOG outpaces the market significantly on green days and also shows strength on red days. Moreover, I believe we are witnessing the start of a new bull market - as per the decennial cycle since market immemorial. The historically best period to invest money in stocks is every other "2" year - "6" year. In other words, 2022 - 2026 would qualify as such a period. which is now.
On the more technical side, I have displayed a simple Fibonacci retracement from the prior highs and is perfectly aligned with the subsequent peaks and troughs of the bear run down. The trade is to 152 for now, using Calls expiring in August and are at the current money. Play this one long and safe for the next half year and definitely use it as a cornerstone in your new bullish portfolio.
- Pigoogly Pig
NASDAQ:GOOG
SKILLING:NASDAQ
SP:SPX
The GOOG ... RevisitedI had published an idea on GOOG in August suggesting one more decline to finish the correction. Here I am again suggesting the same.
It looks like a double zigzag correction has unfolded... There should be a move to the lower channel line ahead...a pretty significant move.
Position a short on a retracement at a little higher price? You could use a price over the white trendline as a stop point.
Here is a weekly using candle bars for an alternate view
GOOGL, 10d+/39.76%rising cycle 39.76% in 10 days.
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This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for PermabearsNo matter how much you read in the establishment media or in the narrative-controlled and socially engineered Twitter and Discord and Reddit forums about "recession" this and "bear market" that, the reality is that while some individual stocks have certainly been a bear market for well over a year, the indexes are not a bear market.
I made the call back at the beginning of November that the Nasdaq would head towards 14,000. The results were that it went up to 12,000 and came back near the lows, and three months has passed.
Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is Coming
Price action is easy, timing is hard. That's the most significant thing I have enlightened to.
But here we are in February after a serious rally, and now that the post-FOMC pump has come and gone, the narrative has become "this is the top" and "the crash is coming."
However, just look at the weekly and monthly bars. This isn't bear market stuff.
Monthly
The literal last five months of Nasdaq futures has been a psychological operation against the COVID-June and COVID-October trendlines and the 2022 low of the year.
It's incredibly obvious on the weekly candles
Weekly
The most notable thing is that the end of the year did not breach the October low, and 2023 opened with a big bounce.
This tells us both that the low of the year isn't very likely to have transpired yet, and that we're still far away from a LOY unfolding.
Moreover, I've seen posts on Twitter that were tracking the SPX and the VIX against the 2008 GFC, 2002, and even the Dot Com bubble, and the January bullish divergence has thrown out all the prior price action to at least the 1970s crashes.
It's time for a revolution in our thinking.
What people don't understand or want to understand about the fundamentals is that when the fundamentals are bad, price is often bound to do what's contrary to expectations, and go up. So long as the market makers have time to work with, they will raise the prices and raise the prices for the purposes of selling YOU, retail dead money, the stocks they've held for a long time and bought more of at each successive low, at higher and higher prices in anticipation of the real crash.
The secondary effect this has is that while you're told by whoever it is that you're consciously or unconsciously taking orders from that the markets are about to crash BECAUSE RECESSION, FED FUNDS RATE, PROFIT/EARNINGS TOO HIGH, you're buying puts while it goes up. They expire worthless, you blow your account, and some Chad at JP Morgan goes for Happy Hour at 1:00 and wakes up under his car after a prostitute stole his Rolex.
Modern human life is total garbage. Return to tradition and find art and family again.
What's important about where we're at right now is that Nasdaq has finally retraced to its September CPI dump candle pivot, which it failed to breach, and looks to be setting up a double top after Friday's pullback.
In my opinion, we're about to get a very nice pullback that will serve as a simultaneous scare to shake out longs, and also a trap for permabears to leverage their entire accounts on puts and 1.5-3x short ETFs.
I'm specifically looking for a dump back under 12,000, which I believe is a long for price action that will take out the August highs by the end of March.
If you don't believe that Nasdaq can take out the August highs, then let me ask you a question: Why did the Dow, the most bearish of all indexes, take out the August highs in the middle of December?
In fact, the Dow as it stands is less than 10% away from setting a new all time high.
After what now amounts to 3 months of market action that isn't going lower combined with the Federal Reserve slowing its rate hikes, ask yourself why you think stocks should go down?
The truth is that the markets are going to crash. A terrifying market crash unlike the others has been arranged. But why do you think that the indexes either setting new highs, or doing a 76% retracement to the old highs, or setting a double top at the old highs, is out of the question before it unfolds?
Nobody has an answer to that, besides that they think it's out of the realm of possibility, for really no reason at all.
What you think can happen has nothing to do with what is actually happening, and this is the fatal flaw of an ordinary person, who only believes in what they can see while refusing to believe in what they cannot see.
Once the truth stands before your eyes, it's too late to profit. All you can do is feel regret that you missed the opportunity. Not so bad with the stock market, but when it comes to major things in life, there are no mulligans in the Cosmos.
Nasdaq to 14,500 by the end of March is my call. Buy the February dip if we get one and take profit over the old highs.
Red Communist China is the Blackest Swan
As always, you need to be careful in bullish market conditions, because an enormous black swan exists lingering in wait. That black swan is the Wuhan Pneumonia situation in mainland China as Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party are on the verge of collapse.
The CCP claims that 85,000 people (~54/1 million on a population-adjusted basis) have died from COVID since the pandemic began. This is despite the virus being engineered there, patient zero being in Wuhan, and the country being the most populous in the world. For comparison's sake, the US has a quarter the population, but has lost 1.1 million people (3,000~/1 million) to COVID.
Even nearby Japan is posting 600 deaths per million people.
Is it really realistic to believe the Party has suffered a factor of 60 fewer losses than a country across the ocean?
And this is the same CCP that is a lying, murderous regime who has gone so far as to commit the unprecedented crime of organ harvesting during its persecution of Falun Gong.
The same CCP that covered up the 2003 SARS pandemic and made it seem to the outside world that barely anyone died.
The same CCP that every single human being who wants a future should be opposing with all of their might.
If you don't want a future, why are you trying to make money trading stocks? If you lose your future, can you spend your winnings and have a happy life?
It's up to you what you believe. An ordinary human has the flaw where they don't believe anything that isn't in front of their face, which is why they like to fall for the lies of establishment media and social media influencers.
The wise ones figure it out before the cards turn face up on the river and the dealer awards the pot, though. The fools get stacked and will lose more than just some casino chips.
NYSE FANG+ Index: wait is better⌛' The NYSE FANG+ Index is a rules-based, equal-weighted equity benchmark designed to track
the performance of 10 highly-traded growth stocks of technology and tech-enabled companies in the
technology, media & communications and consumer discretionary sectors'.
Companies included in the index:
Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, NVIDIA, Snowflake and Advanced Micro Devices.
Graphically speaking, I would expect a better definition of which way the price is going.
Looking at the Stochastic Momentum Index, I would say that opening a long position would be too risky.
Below are some possible scenarios:
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
Scenario 4:
Scenario 5:
LONG Term GOOG DCARe-entered the market after several months on the sideline waiting for longer term indicators to look positive.
I believe this is a suitable spot to start DCA again into high conviction companies and stocks.
High conviction in the company for the long term✅
Money flow on the monthly in the red ✅
RSI Oversold on the monthly ✅
Trading around significant support (@0.5 AT Fib)✅
Market Cipher on the monthly around the 'buy-zone' ❓*
*Market Cipher not yet indicating buy, however, weekly green indicator with the above indicates the monthly buy-signal is near - hence comfortable to DCA as within my personal risk tolerances)
** NOT TRADING OR FINANCIAL ADVICE **
Multiple Ideas for MELI the next weekLike you can see the Graph. MELI has a good fundamentals from the last Earnings and Revenue. One the F. Volume profile levels reach the 61,8% of the Fibonacci Retracement. So It's time to wait if the POC moves to that area and make things more interesting. The other Escenario is Wait for a Breakout. I think both Ideas are good if the Ocillator goes in a red wave marking a good retracement and go bullish again with more power and momentum