036. PIGGISH PLAY - Long Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)I hate to say it but I love Google. Everything it touches is amazing.
And that's all for fundamental analysis.
On the technical side, the stock has been showing signs of major bullish life. For the past month, I've observed that GOOG outpaces the market significantly on green days and also shows strength on red days. Moreover, I believe we are witnessing the start of a new bull market - as per the decennial cycle since market immemorial. The historically best period to invest money in stocks is every other "2" year - "6" year. In other words, 2022 - 2026 would qualify as such a period. which is now.
On the more technical side, I have displayed a simple Fibonacci retracement from the prior highs and is perfectly aligned with the subsequent peaks and troughs of the bear run down. The trade is to 152 for now, using Calls expiring in August and are at the current money. Play this one long and safe for the next half year and definitely use it as a cornerstone in your new bullish portfolio.
- Pigoogly Pig
NASDAQ:GOOG
SKILLING:NASDAQ
SP:SPX
The GOOG ... RevisitedI had published an idea on GOOG in August suggesting one more decline to finish the correction. Here I am again suggesting the same.
It looks like a double zigzag correction has unfolded... There should be a move to the lower channel line ahead...a pretty significant move.
Position a short on a retracement at a little higher price? You could use a price over the white trendline as a stop point.
Here is a weekly using candle bars for an alternate view
GOOGL, 10d+/39.76%rising cycle 39.76% in 10 days.
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This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for PermabearsNo matter how much you read in the establishment media or in the narrative-controlled and socially engineered Twitter and Discord and Reddit forums about "recession" this and "bear market" that, the reality is that while some individual stocks have certainly been a bear market for well over a year, the indexes are not a bear market.
I made the call back at the beginning of November that the Nasdaq would head towards 14,000. The results were that it went up to 12,000 and came back near the lows, and three months has passed.
Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is Coming
Price action is easy, timing is hard. That's the most significant thing I have enlightened to.
But here we are in February after a serious rally, and now that the post-FOMC pump has come and gone, the narrative has become "this is the top" and "the crash is coming."
However, just look at the weekly and monthly bars. This isn't bear market stuff.
Monthly
The literal last five months of Nasdaq futures has been a psychological operation against the COVID-June and COVID-October trendlines and the 2022 low of the year.
It's incredibly obvious on the weekly candles
Weekly
The most notable thing is that the end of the year did not breach the October low, and 2023 opened with a big bounce.
This tells us both that the low of the year isn't very likely to have transpired yet, and that we're still far away from a LOY unfolding.
Moreover, I've seen posts on Twitter that were tracking the SPX and the VIX against the 2008 GFC, 2002, and even the Dot Com bubble, and the January bullish divergence has thrown out all the prior price action to at least the 1970s crashes.
It's time for a revolution in our thinking.
What people don't understand or want to understand about the fundamentals is that when the fundamentals are bad, price is often bound to do what's contrary to expectations, and go up. So long as the market makers have time to work with, they will raise the prices and raise the prices for the purposes of selling YOU, retail dead money, the stocks they've held for a long time and bought more of at each successive low, at higher and higher prices in anticipation of the real crash.
The secondary effect this has is that while you're told by whoever it is that you're consciously or unconsciously taking orders from that the markets are about to crash BECAUSE RECESSION, FED FUNDS RATE, PROFIT/EARNINGS TOO HIGH, you're buying puts while it goes up. They expire worthless, you blow your account, and some Chad at JP Morgan goes for Happy Hour at 1:00 and wakes up under his car after a prostitute stole his Rolex.
Modern human life is total garbage. Return to tradition and find art and family again.
What's important about where we're at right now is that Nasdaq has finally retraced to its September CPI dump candle pivot, which it failed to breach, and looks to be setting up a double top after Friday's pullback.
In my opinion, we're about to get a very nice pullback that will serve as a simultaneous scare to shake out longs, and also a trap for permabears to leverage their entire accounts on puts and 1.5-3x short ETFs.
I'm specifically looking for a dump back under 12,000, which I believe is a long for price action that will take out the August highs by the end of March.
If you don't believe that Nasdaq can take out the August highs, then let me ask you a question: Why did the Dow, the most bearish of all indexes, take out the August highs in the middle of December?
In fact, the Dow as it stands is less than 10% away from setting a new all time high.
After what now amounts to 3 months of market action that isn't going lower combined with the Federal Reserve slowing its rate hikes, ask yourself why you think stocks should go down?
The truth is that the markets are going to crash. A terrifying market crash unlike the others has been arranged. But why do you think that the indexes either setting new highs, or doing a 76% retracement to the old highs, or setting a double top at the old highs, is out of the question before it unfolds?
Nobody has an answer to that, besides that they think it's out of the realm of possibility, for really no reason at all.
What you think can happen has nothing to do with what is actually happening, and this is the fatal flaw of an ordinary person, who only believes in what they can see while refusing to believe in what they cannot see.
Once the truth stands before your eyes, it's too late to profit. All you can do is feel regret that you missed the opportunity. Not so bad with the stock market, but when it comes to major things in life, there are no mulligans in the Cosmos.
Nasdaq to 14,500 by the end of March is my call. Buy the February dip if we get one and take profit over the old highs.
Red Communist China is the Blackest Swan
As always, you need to be careful in bullish market conditions, because an enormous black swan exists lingering in wait. That black swan is the Wuhan Pneumonia situation in mainland China as Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party are on the verge of collapse.
The CCP claims that 85,000 people (~54/1 million on a population-adjusted basis) have died from COVID since the pandemic began. This is despite the virus being engineered there, patient zero being in Wuhan, and the country being the most populous in the world. For comparison's sake, the US has a quarter the population, but has lost 1.1 million people (3,000~/1 million) to COVID.
Even nearby Japan is posting 600 deaths per million people.
Is it really realistic to believe the Party has suffered a factor of 60 fewer losses than a country across the ocean?
And this is the same CCP that is a lying, murderous regime who has gone so far as to commit the unprecedented crime of organ harvesting during its persecution of Falun Gong.
The same CCP that covered up the 2003 SARS pandemic and made it seem to the outside world that barely anyone died.
The same CCP that every single human being who wants a future should be opposing with all of their might.
If you don't want a future, why are you trying to make money trading stocks? If you lose your future, can you spend your winnings and have a happy life?
It's up to you what you believe. An ordinary human has the flaw where they don't believe anything that isn't in front of their face, which is why they like to fall for the lies of establishment media and social media influencers.
The wise ones figure it out before the cards turn face up on the river and the dealer awards the pot, though. The fools get stacked and will lose more than just some casino chips.
NYSE FANG+ Index: wait is better⌛' The NYSE FANG+ Index is a rules-based, equal-weighted equity benchmark designed to track
the performance of 10 highly-traded growth stocks of technology and tech-enabled companies in the
technology, media & communications and consumer discretionary sectors'.
Companies included in the index:
Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, NVIDIA, Snowflake and Advanced Micro Devices.
Graphically speaking, I would expect a better definition of which way the price is going.
Looking at the Stochastic Momentum Index, I would say that opening a long position would be too risky.
Below are some possible scenarios:
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
Scenario 4:
Scenario 5:
LONG Term GOOG DCARe-entered the market after several months on the sideline waiting for longer term indicators to look positive.
I believe this is a suitable spot to start DCA again into high conviction companies and stocks.
High conviction in the company for the long term✅
Money flow on the monthly in the red ✅
RSI Oversold on the monthly ✅
Trading around significant support (@0.5 AT Fib)✅
Market Cipher on the monthly around the 'buy-zone' ❓*
*Market Cipher not yet indicating buy, however, weekly green indicator with the above indicates the monthly buy-signal is near - hence comfortable to DCA as within my personal risk tolerances)
** NOT TRADING OR FINANCIAL ADVICE **
Multiple Ideas for MELI the next weekLike you can see the Graph. MELI has a good fundamentals from the last Earnings and Revenue. One the F. Volume profile levels reach the 61,8% of the Fibonacci Retracement. So It's time to wait if the POC moves to that area and make things more interesting. The other Escenario is Wait for a Breakout. I think both Ideas are good if the Ocillator goes in a red wave marking a good retracement and go bullish again with more power and momentum
XTZ video 2/22 #googlepartnershipweb3 is gaining web2 giants attention. Google partnered with xtz today so this is a catalyst for more upside no pullback on tezos today with the rest of the market broke above a significant orderblock 1.45 may act as resistance for a retest on 1.30 "a good place to enter" after that 1.45 breaks and we could make it all the way to 1.80 before the next retest
GOOGL:Fundamental Analysis + Possible Next Target Warren Buffett is an expert at capturing the attention of Wall Street analysts and investors. This could be attributed to the more than 3,800,000% cumulative return he has generated to his company's Class A stock (BRK.A) since taking over as CEO in the 1960s.
His stellar investment track record has enabled new and repeat investors to follow him for decades and achieve substantial returns. This is ultimately what makes Berkshire Hathaway's Form 13F filing such a highly anticipated event.
Many people who follow Berkshire Hathaway's buying and selling are presumably aware that Apple is the company's largest holding. Apple accounted for 41% of Berkshire's $342 billion in invested assets a week earlier. Apple was also one of three stocks added by Buffett and his investing team during the fourth quarter.
Similarly, Amazon has been a Berkshire Hathaway holding for the past four years (since Q1 of 2019). Oracle's prior remarks from Omaha imply that he was not the architect behind the takeover of the world's largest e-commerce company. Rather, one of his investment lieutenants, Todd Combs or Ted Weschler, was responsible for the $1.06 billion holding in Amazon.
Buffett was only indirectly familiar with the other three FAANGs - Meta, Netflix, and Alphabet - before Berkshire Hathaway and New England Asset Management released its current 13F reports. The situation has now altered.
In the fourth quarter, New England Asset Management purchased 17,100 Alphabet shares, primarily Class A shares (GOOGL).
The straightforward answer to the question "Why Alphabet?" is based on three factors: market share, cash flow, and valuation.
Let us begin with the reality that Alphabet has a complete monopoly on Internet search. Since December 2018, Google has accounted for at least 91% of global search share, according to GlobalStats. Although ad spending cycles, Google's almost 90 percentage point dominance over its nearest competitor provides it unparalleled pricing power when working with advertisers. Given how the US and worldwide economies have developed over time, Alphabet, fuelled by advertising, is the clear winner.
Second, Alphabet is a money generator, allowing it to actively reinvest in a wide range of high-growth activities. The corporation generated $91.5 billion in operating cash flow in 2022. This massive cash flow allows the corporation to expand the scope of its Google Cloud infrastructure service, which has taken almost 10% of the world's cloud infrastructure market, according to a recent Canalys analysis.
Furthermore, Google's extraordinary cash flow, along with $99 billion in net cash, cash equivalents, and marketable Alphabet securities, allows the corporation to reinvest in the streaming channel YouTube, which is the world's second most visited social site. Alphabet is currently experimenting with new ways to monetize short videos known as YouTube Shorts. Every day, more than 50 billion "shorts" are viewed!
Third, Alphabet has historically been cheap in terms of both future revenue potential and cash flow. Despite a five-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 25.4, the company is now valued at 15.5 times Wall Street's predicted earnings for next year.
Furthermore, Alphabet has averaged 18.6 times year-end cash flow over the last five years. Investors may buy Google shares right now for just 6.5 times the company's estimated cash flow in 2026, according to Wall Street's most forward-looking projection.
In other words, Alphabet satisfies all of Buffett's investment criteria.