NASDAQ OUTLOOK 2022-2023, possible reset to Wall St?Greetings community
Nasdaq, like with any asset, has two potential scenarios: long or short, however, it is crucial to identify the vast price movement, rather than to bicker about insignificant price jumps.
I have illustrated my view, clearly indicating what matters, well to me.
Below is text of the two scenarios that have most relative:
1) The price point of 12900-12950, which is a key level, a prior support and current resistance level, is either going to hold and allow for price to decline within its confined channel yielding more favorable long positions from the downside. In addition, Apple earnings are at low's matching 2015, Microsoft nears bottom, Google share split as well as formation of a potential double top should price close beneath above stated resistance 12950-12900.
2) The price pierces through and closes above the 12900-12950 level, defying equal high's or lower high's, thus yielding invalidation to set up - hence bringing a long opportunity, turning a resistance, back into support.
Live time price action and fundamentals will confirm either scenario, both, with minimal drawdown at given prices and high R:R.
Notes:
-High potential of bear market continuation through October.
-Correlation to BTC
-Inflation & Interest
-Recession rumors
If you've benefitted, enjoyed or would like more of this content, advise by liking and commenting below. Be it smaller timeframes, long or short calls. I see that analysis posted on this asset as of current is an absolute joke. Sorry, not sorry.
7/27/22 GOOGAlphabet Inc (Google) Class C ( NASDAQ:GOOG )
Sector: Technology Services (Internet Software/Services)
Market Capitalization: $1.493T
Current Price: $113.60
Breakout Price: $114.80
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $112.80-$105.40
Price Target: $120.20-$121.80 (1st), $126.40-$129.10 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 36-38d, 65-68d
Contract of Interest: $QQQ 9/16/22 115c, $QQQ 10/21/22 115c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.60/contract, $6.50/contract
Alphabet Inc-Bullish Swing The 20-day ranged Bollinger band presents a support or lower bound (red line) equal to $105. This is the price in which the stock closed at yesterday the 26/07/22. Before today the, the stock’s price was equal to the Bollinger’s 20-day ranged support level indicating a bullish correction before further bearish movements in line with the current macroeconomic environment. Since trading has opened today, we have witnessed a correction towards the Bollinger’s resistance landing just beneath the Bollinger’s middle bound (orange line).
Bullish movements are further supported by RSI and SMA indicators. The purple RSI is beginning to cross the yellow SMA suggesting bullish stock price movements. Furthermore, the MACD indicator presents the red MACD line also crossing its blue signal further supporting a bullish swing before further bearish movement.
In line with these signals, I anticipate the stock to beat the Bollinger’s middle bound and anticipate a strengthening buying trend. For this swing trade, I have set a strike price equal to $112. My target is bullish, I will sell before the end of the week at price greater than this strike.
A neutral marketWe are in a neutral channel, the price in this channel goes up and down by hitting the floor and the ceiling of the channel, and the best situation is to buy at the floors and sell at the ceilings, and if the price either from the bottom or from the side The trend of the market has come out, so let's go along with it.
SPY Critical positionIf you read my last idea on SPY the recent Bull rally does not come in as a surprise. With the being said it appears the spy is at a critical level, in the trend, what happens today could determine the fate of the spy for the short term and possibly long term. Will the bull rally continue? If we look at the chart the higher price action is being achieved with lower then normal daily volume average, which shows us the state of liquidity in the markets now. My best guess is that higher price action without meaningful volume is unsustainable. Also keep in mind that FOMC meeting next week could also serve as a bear catalyst potentially. Traders be cautions, best of luck to all.
This is not financial advice, this is just my personal idea.
GOOGL updateMake it or break it moment for GOOGL before earnings. Fall back to the diagonal trendline, although it's still increasing and also RSI is increasing, let's see if it holds. Tried to break through the resistance multiple times and still trading in a channel. Things are getting tight. Earnings next week.
GOOGLE - LONGGoogle appears to have bottomed at a recent support zone that has held numerous time. I know most would identify this pattern as a "bear flag". However, I think keeping an open mind is crucial. Just follow the price.
Currently: good chance Google can bounce up to the top of the zone. From thereon, IF the overall market has steam - this stock can squeeze higher.
SHORT TERM: Bullish
More selling pressures ahead .....It looks like Tech stocks in US are not out of the woods yet. Most charts I see are displaying a retracement pattern based on hitting the upper channel or bearish trend line.
In Alphabet case, there is a pending gap that has yet to be filled. If my predictions is right, that means the gap between 1960 to 2008 will be filled up first before we can see a rebound.
However, there seems to be some support at 2008 price level so if it revisit this level , I might buy a bit first and monitor before buying more.
Now I know my ABC, next time will you sell with me?Alphabet - Short Term - We look to Sell at 2306.60 (stop at 2426.25)
The medium term bias remains bearish. The sideways consolidation continued although the market managed to post a significant low at 2037.69. Continued downward momentum from 2393 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday. Further downside is expected and we prefer to set shorts in early trade.
Our profit targets will be 2001 and 1949.50
Resistance: 2393.70 / 2457.09 / 2490.00
Support: 2114.63 / 2100.92 / 2037.69
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#SPX Market Update Update 7-10-22SPX presented some great opportunities last week off our double bottom at 3741. We had a 176 point run from there. If SPX can reclaim 3945.86 the Bulls will make a higher High on the Daily Chart. Still well within a “Bear Market Rally” and I would continue to treat it as such. If we lose 3870 early on it is possible to see a 50 – 70 point drop. We have CPI Data on Wednesday that will be the key catalyst this week. We can see some consolidation until then. Thursday we have Job Data followed by Retail Sales Numbers Friday. . In these types of market conditions it may be best for most traders to sit and watch or consider quick scalps. You can’t get aggressive when Index has already ran as much as it has. Be aware of this otherwise you can blow up an account if you get too aggressive on the wrong day. We should see the Market set up for a Nice move after Wednesday.
GOOG: Have we reached the bottom?Alphabet
Intraday - We look to Buy at 2214 (stop at 2105)
Buying pressure from 2150 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Prices expected to stall near trend line support. Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 2549 and 2600
Resistance: 2555 / 2860 / 3032
Support: 2140 / 1900 / 1600
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Alphabet | Fundamental Analysis + NEXT TARGET | MUST READ | The countdown has begun. There are less than ten days to go before Alphabet's 20-to-1 stock split on July 15.
Many are undoubtedly contemplating buying up the tech giant's stock before the date. The idea behind such a decision is that Alphabet stock could jump if a lower price attracts an influx of small investors.
That could be a winning strategy. But here are a few reasons not to buy Alphabet stock before the split.
The need for cash in the near term
Never invest cash in a stock that you may need in the near term. The definition of "near term" may vary from person to person. However, a good rule of thumb is not to invest cash that you might need in the next five years.
The past few months have clearly demonstrated why such a cautious stance makes sense. The S&P 500 has experienced its worst first half of the year since 1970. Alphabet is performing worse than the S&P, with its stock down about 25 percent over the year.
There is no guarantee that Alphabet's impending split will serve as a positive catalyst. Amazon also had a 20-to-1 split last month. The company's stock didn't soar but instead fell. Alphabet may well suffer a similar fate.
Lack of diversification
Another straightforward reason why you shouldn't buy Alphabet stock before it splits is that your investments are not sufficiently diversified. The most obvious example of a lack of diversification, in this case, would be the fact that Alphabet already makes up the majority of your overall portfolio.
But you may also have most of your investments in other growth stocks that are highly correlated with the movement of Alphabet stock. In that case, buying Alphabet won't help improve the diversification of your portfolio.
The point of diversification is that it reduces overall risk. The old adage about not putting all your eggs in one basket is more relevant than ever.
Recession Concerns
If you fear a recession is just around the corner, you probably shouldn't buy Alphabet stock before the company does a split. The company's stock has not performed well during previous recessions.
For example, during the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009, Google stock fell more than 60 percent. During the short pandemic recession of 2020, the stock fell 23% below its previous high.
Concerns about the recession are understandable. Nearly 70% of economists surveyed by the Financial Times predict that the U.S. economy will enter a recession next year. Some investors, such as ARK Invest CEO Kathy Wood, believe we are already in a recession.
You may have noticed that none of the above reasons have anything to do with Alphabet itself. The need for cash in the near term, lack of diversification, and fears of an impending recession are legitimate reasons for not buying any stock.
Beyond that, we have not discussed the advantages of buying Alphabet before the split versus buying it after the split. No one knows what will happen next, as there are too many variables.
However, we can think of several good reasons for buying Alphabet that have nothing to do with the split. In particular, the company has an exceptionally strong business market. The likelihood that any competitor could knock Alphabet from its position seems very low.
Alphabet also has many growth drivers. Its core Google advertising business remains strong. Its Google Cloud division continues to show strong growth. And its famous "other bets" (especially Waymo's self-driving car technology business) could also contribute significantly over time.
Reasons to stay away from Alphabet focus on the short term. But for investors focused on the long term, any time could be a good time to buy the stock.
$GOOG GOOGLE BIG Rising Wedge Bear Flag on the Daily Timeframe$GOOG GOOGLE
This rising wedge could be confused as a bear flag, however, both patterns are similar, bearish and generally followed by downside.
My guess is we fill the gap below the next support before seeing any major reversal on this stock.
Are there any hungry bears out there? GOOGLE this pattern and get ready!
On a fundamentals it is a buy buy buy long term according to all analyst because it doesn't have a sell rating. This wouldn't make most comfortable to enter short.
HOWEVER, google missed earnings Q1 2022 and it has been down trending since.
Google makes their money from search and unless they post good earnings or make an announcement I don't see why the gap below wouldn't fill based on TA.