GOOGLE You can still catch this BUY to based on these indicatorsAlphabet Inc. (GOOG) is in the process of forming a bottom following the July and early August correction. Technically it has already priced the new Higher Low (green Arc) on the 20-month Channel Up but is underperforming relative to the rest of the tech sector.
This is why it hasn't yet broken above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) but this isn't at all discouraging. Every break within this long-term Channel Up below the 1D MA100 and subsequent recovery above it, confirmed the start of its new Bullish Leg. This has only taken place when the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross below the 0.0 mark, which last took place on August 16.
The above occurrences indicate that it is not late to catch this unique long-term buy on Google. Following the October 27 2023 Low, the first High it made was after a +28.14% rise. As a result our first long-term Target is $200.
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Google to break the downtrendGoogle is set to make its 6th straight down week. That is only the second time in the past decade that has happened by my count.
At a lowly 23.4, Google's PE is significantly lower than the other tech giants and after a few weeks of bad news (an absurdly bad Gemini demo, the monopoly ruling, potential breakup - although, this isn't actually bad news, is it?) it's seen some support at the 160 level.
While the rest of tech has rebounded quite well since the big drop on August 5th, Google lags behind, not yet making up the losses from that day alone. As seen in the chart, Google is facing a strong resistance line and it is currently bumping up against it, trying to break out.
If we zoom out further, we can see a long-term support channel where Google got some support on August 5th and it has continued to trend with the same direction and magnitude as the overall trend.
The overall market is feeling pretty good right now, recent consumer spending has warded off the concerns of a recession and there isn't a clear reason to sell on the macro level unless you're expecting worse economic news than economists. That being said, the rebound is fairly well extended at this point and short-term profit taking could see this resistance hold for Google again.
I think Google breaks through this resistance soon and we see shorts scramble to cover, quickly pushing Google up to 175-178.
U.S. Justice Department Weighs Action to Curb ‘Illegal MonopolyIn what could be one of the most significant antitrust actions of the modern era, the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) is contemplating the breakup of Alphabet Inc.’s Google, following a landmark court ruling that found the tech giant had illegally monopolized the online search and advertising markets. This decision marks a pivotal moment not only for Google ( NASDAQ:GOOG ) but also for the broader tech industry, as it could lead to a rare and profound restructuring of one of the world’s most powerful companies.
The Court Ruling: A Game-Changer for Big Tech
Earlier this month, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta delivered a ruling that could alter the trajectory of Google’s dominance in the digital economy. The ruling found that Google had engaged in illegal practices to maintain its monopoly over online search and search text ads, in violation of U.S. antitrust laws. Central to the case were Google’s exclusive agreements with major device manufacturers, such as Apple and Samsung, which ensured that Google Search was the default engine on their devices. In exchange for billions of dollars—$26 billion in 2021 alone—Google effectively eliminated competition by making its search engine ubiquitous across smartphones and tablets.
Judge Mehta’s decision has sparked intense discussions within the Justice Department about the appropriate remedies to address Google’s anti-competitive behavior. While the ruling itself is a major blow to Google, the potential remedies on the table could have even more far-reaching implications, potentially leading to the breakup of the company.
Divestiture on the Table: Android and Chrome in the Crosshairs
One of the most significant and radical remedies being considered is the forced divestiture of key Google assets, including the Android operating system and the Chrome web browser. Android, which powers approximately 2.5 billion devices worldwide, has been a cornerstone of Google’s dominance in the mobile market. Chrome, the world’s most popular web browser, further solidifies Google’s control over how users access the internet.
Judge Mehta’s ruling highlighted how Google’s agreements with device manufacturers required them to pre-install Google’s apps, such as Chrome and Google Search, in a manner that prevents users from deleting them. This strategy has effectively stifled competition, ensuring that rival search engines and browsers struggle to gain a foothold. By mandating the pre-installation of these apps, Google has created an ecosystem where users have little choice but to use its products, thereby reinforcing its monopoly.
The Justice Department’s discussions about breaking up Google ( NASDAQ:GOOG ) could lead to the most significant corporate restructuring in the United States since the breakup of AT&T in the 1980s. If the DoJ moves forward with this plan, it would signal a major shift in how the U.S. government regulates Big Tech and could have profound implications for the entire industry.
The Historical Context: A Rare Move in Antitrust Enforcement
The potential breakup of Google is reminiscent of other major antitrust actions in U.S. history, such as the dismantling of AT&T in 1984 and the Microsoft case in the late 1990s. However, such measures are rare and are typically reserved for cases where a company’s dominance is so overwhelming that it stifles competition and harms consumers.
The AT&T case, often referred to as the “Bell System breakup,” resulted in the division of the telecommunications giant into seven regional companies, known as “Baby Bells.” This action was intended to foster competition in the telecommunications market and prevent any one company from having too much control over the industry.
Similarly, in the Microsoft case, the company was found guilty of maintaining a monopoly in the PC operating system market through anti-competitive practices. While Microsoft was not broken up, the case resulted in a settlement that imposed significant restrictions on the company’s business practices and required it to share its application programming interfaces (APIs) with third-party developers.
The potential breakup of Google would be in line with these historical precedents, marking the first time in decades that the U.S. government has sought to dismantle a major technology company for monopolistic behavior.
Google’s Dominance and the AI Factor: A Growing Concern
While the focus of the antitrust case is on Google’s dominance in the search and advertising markets, the Justice Department is also increasingly concerned about the company’s growing influence in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Google’s control over online search provides it with an unparalleled advantage in AI development, as the vast amounts of data collected through search queries are used to train its AI models.
Google’s AI-powered features, such as its “AI Overviews,” which provide narrative responses to search queries, are built on the company’s extensive data assets. These overviews summarize information from across the web, presenting it directly to users without requiring them to click through to the original sources. While this feature enhances the user experience, it has raised alarms among regulators who fear that Google’s dominance in search could extend into AI, potentially stifling competition in this emerging field.
In response to concerns about data scraping, Google introduced a tool that allows websites to block data scraping specifically for AI purposes. However, this opt-out option does not apply to all data used for AI development, and Google has been criticized for not allowing website publishers to opt out of AI Overviews, which are considered a “feature” of search rather than a separate product.
The Justice Department’s focus on AI reflects broader concerns about the concentration of power in the tech industry, particularly as AI becomes increasingly central to the digital economy. If Google’s dominance in search allows it to maintain an unassailable lead in AI, it could further entrench the company’s monopoly and limit the opportunities for innovation and competition in this critical area.
Possible Remedies: Breaking Up and Beyond
As the Justice Department considers its options, several potential remedies are on the table. In addition to the possible breakup of Google, other measures being discussed include requiring Google to share more data with competitors, imposing interoperability requirements on its products, and preventing the company from using its dominance in search to unfairly advantage its AI offerings.
One less severe remedy could involve mandating Google to divest or license its data to rival search engines, such as Microsoft’s Bing or DuckDuckGo. This would address one of the key findings in Judge Mehta’s ruling: that Google’s contracts ensure it collects far more user data than its competitors, which in turn allows it to refine its search algorithms and maintain its dominance.
Another option could involve requiring Google ( NASDAQ:GOOG ) to stop forcing websites to allow their content to be used for AI products in order to appear in search results. This would prevent Google from leveraging its search monopoly to dominate the AI market, ensuring that competitors have a fair chance to develop their own AI technologies.
The Justice Department is also considering banning exclusive contracts that stifle competition. For example, Google’s agreements with device manufacturers, which require the pre-installation of its apps, could be prohibited, allowing consumers more choice in the search engines and browsers they use.
The Road Ahead: Implications for Google and the Tech Industry
The outcome of the upcoming trial, set for September 4, will determine the specific penalties or remedies that Google ( NASDAQ:GOOG ) will face. If the Justice Department decides to pursue a breakup, it will need approval from Judge Mehta, who would then direct Google to comply. This process could take years to fully unfold, but the implications for Google—and the tech industry as a whole—could be profound.
For Google ( NASDAQ:GOOG ), a breakup would mean a dramatic shift in its business model. Divesting Android and Chrome would not only reduce its control over key aspects of the digital ecosystem but could also lead to a loss of synergy between its products, potentially weakening its competitive position. However, it could also create new opportunities for innovation and competition, as other companies step in to fill the void left by Google’s dominance.
For the tech industry, the case could set a significant precedent, influencing how digital markets are regulated in the future. If successful, the Justice Department’s actions could pave the way for more aggressive antitrust enforcement against other tech giants, such as Amazon, Apple, and Facebook, which have also faced scrutiny over their business practices.
The case also raises broader questions about the role of government in regulating technology companies. As digital markets continue to evolve, the balance between fostering innovation and ensuring competition will be a key challenge for regulators. The outcome of the Google case could provide a roadmap for how to navigate this complex landscape, ensuring that the benefits of technology are widely shared while preventing any one company from gaining too much power.
Technical Outlook
Currently, as of the time of writing, Google's stock ( NASDAQ:GOOG ) is down 1.91% in premarket trading on Wednesday. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39.87, indicating that the stock is quite oversold. This is not good news for Google, especially considering that the company is facing challenging times. However, there is a glimmer of hope as the stock is trading above the 200-day Moving Average.
Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Big Tech
The Justice Department’s potential breakup of Google represents a watershed moment in the ongoing effort to regulate Big Tech. As the case progresses, it will be closely watched by industry leaders, regulators, and investors, as it could reshape the future of the technology sector.
For Google, the stakes could not be higher. The company’s dominance in search, advertising, and AI has made it one of the most powerful corporations in the world, but it is now facing the possibility of being dismantled by the very government that once championed its success.
Regardless of the outcome, the case will have lasting implications for the tech industry, as it could set a new standard for antitrust enforcement in the digital age. As the Justice Department weighs its options, the future of Google—and the broader tech landscape—hangs in the balance.
GOOGLE SHORT TIMING? reached important resistance level?
we could see that it is rebounding from an overall downtrend market.
And it's closed to the resistance area of previous lows, which shares the same level with the downtrend line, double confirmed the importance of this resistance area.
So if it be rejected by this area, and start to showing sell signals like bearish engulfing pattern etc, the price may continue to drop.
SPX 5600 BY FALL 2024 ?SP:SPX
Economic Resilience: Despite various challenges, the U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience. If this trend continues, it could support higher stock prices.
Normalization of Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve’s normalization of interest rates, rather than aggressive tightening, could create a favorable environment for equities. If inflation continues to fall closer to the Fed’s 2% target, it might only require modest rate cuts.
Consumer Spending Power: Consumers have maintained strong purchasing power, supported by high job security and a robust labor market. This continued consumption can drive corporate earnings higher.
Big Tech Leadership: Big Tech companies have consistently delivered strong earnings and have been a significant driver of the S&P 500’s performance. Their growth prospects, particularly in areas like AI, remain strong.
Earnings Growth: Analysts project solid earnings growth for the S&P 500, with estimates suggesting a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) for 2024.
Valuation Multiples: The valuation multiples for Big Tech and other sectors are seen as reasonable given their growth prospects. This supports higher price targets for the index.
Historical Trends: Historical performance patterns, especially in presidential election years, suggest that the S&P 500 could see gains.
THE FREAKY SEVEN IS SET TO CONTINUE ITS CHEMICAL TRIP. SOON...US stock indexes closed mixed on Monday as investors awaited a massive wave of data this week.
171 companies within the S&P 500 are set to report their second-quarter earnings results this week, and expectations are high given the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) 16% year-to-date rally.
Some of the biggest companies including Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon will report results this week.
I won't sing you lullabies about expected numbers.
The major technical graph indicates that 50-Day SMA already done & fully retested.
The next one chase is IXIC 125-Day SMA & all the way below, as much as it possible.
Alphabet & Tesla push All The Bigtech into Bearish MarchIndexes end lower as investors brace for major earnings results
After the closing bell, Tesla and Alphabet released their second-quarter performance.
Investors were especially attentive to the carmaker, looking to see if its performance has improved since the start of the year. Tesla was battered by a slew of headwinds in the first quarter, but investors have since grown bullish on the flagship EV manufacturer.
The two firms are the first of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks to release their earnings.
Unfortunately they both did not deliver strength, so it breaks the momentum to the tech rally.
Tesla shares fall nearly 9% in premarket trading after earnings miss
Tesla shares dropped in premarket trading in the U.S. after the electric car maker reported second-quarter earnings that missed expectations, as its auto business continued to face pressure.
Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company reported that automotive revenue declined 7% year on year in the June quarter to $19.9 billion, while its adjusted earnings margin also fell.
Bulls and bears have been in a grapple over the stock, with some believing the company’s core car business is under pressure, while others held hope about a future Musk has promised around autonomous driving.
Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) shares fall nearly 4.5% in premarket trading after earnings report
Alphabet earnings top estimates as cloud business gains steam, AI losses grow.
Google parent Alphabet reported its fiscal second quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday, beating analysts' estimates on the top and bottom lines as its cloud businesses continue to pick up steam, topping the $1 billion mark for operating profit for the first time.
For the quarter, the company saw earnings per share of $1.89 on revenue of $84.7 billion. Analysts were anticipating earnings per share of $1.85 on revenue of $84.3 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's a jump from the same period last year of 31% and 14%, respectively, when the company reported earnings per share of $1.44 on revenue of $74.6 billion.
Advertising revenue topped $64.6 billion versus analysts' expectations of $64.5 billion, and up from $58.1 billion last year. YouTube ad revenue, however, fell short, with the segment bringing in $8.66 billion versus expectations of $8.95 billion.
Technical thoughts
What is next? Hmm.. I think more Bulls & Bears are to run.
The main graph Nasdaq-100 Sept'24 Futures contract (NQU2024) indicates on strong Bearish Momentum.
This is all because of 50-Day SMA breakthrough, as well as breakthrough of major 3Mo old upside channel.
GOOGL Short Term bounce, but Long Term crash??A lot of this drop on NASDAQ:GOOGL is due to AI news and possible bubble bust. I dont think investors are giving up on GOOGL and expect to see a short term bounce to around the 172-173 area this coming week. Market depending.
I think 155 looks a lot better to buyers rather than 167 but we shall see. Either way another big move is waiting for NASDAQ:GOOGL We just need to see if buyers will step in.
Weekly is still overbought. But Daily, 4HR and smaller Timeframes looks like it will bounce.
VIX 20 years Later !What will fuel this next Bull Market?
#AI and exponential gains in productivity seem like a fair bet.
The technology won't manifest properly in the next few years of course.
But the speculation and new companies will.
20 years ago we saw the trendline of the #VIX break
coming out of 9/11 and right around the time of the Iraq war
Military spending, Lowering of rates, a Housing boom , and the rise of Google and culminating in the iphone.
Seems eerily similar to the current #macro environment
GOOGLE Correction completed. Buying again for a $210 Target.Last time we made a call on Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) on July 11 (see chart below), we caught the most optimal sell entry, right at the top of the 21-month Channel Up:
The price not only broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 15, but today almost touched the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is holding since March 12.
This correction is consistent with the mid Bullish Leg pull-back that bottomed on July 11 2023 and then moved on to complete a +37.69% rise from the previous Higher Low. As a result, we think this is the best level to buy again and target $210.00 (+37.69% rise from the April 25 Higher Low.
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GOOGL Shares Decline After ReportGOOGL Shares Decline After Report
Yesterday, Alphabet released its Q2 report:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $1.89, forecast = $1.847;
→ Gross revenue: actual = $84.742 billion, forecast = $84.208 billion.
The actual figures exceeded analysts' expectations. However, today in pre-market trading, GOOGL's price fluctuates around $178.60 per share, down from $183.60 at yesterday's close. Investors might be disappointed by YouTube's ad sales growth falling short of expectations ($8.7 billion versus the projected $8.9 billion).
It appears that GOOGL shares will join other tech companies whose stocks are losing ground in the stock market.
On 18th July, analysing NVDA's chart, we noted that the bears had the initiative. On 19th July, we pointed out bearish signs on META's stock charts. And on 22nd July, we highlighted bearish signs on MSFT's price chart.
Technical analysis of GOOGL's chart after the report shows:
→ In 2024, the stock has been rising within an upward channel that started in 2023. The historic high set earlier this month marked the upper boundary of this channel, which acted as resistance and turned the price downwards.
→ The bullish impulse, shown by black lines, is losing strength as the price moved closer to the median line of the blue channel after the report.
→ The July structure of local extremes A-B-C-D-E indicates bearish sentiment, as each increase is approximately 50% of the preceding decline.
Bulls might hope for support from the blue median line to try and keep the price in the upper part of the blue channel.
39 Wall Street analysts surveyed by TipRanks provide positive forecasts:
→ 33 analysts recommend buying GOOGL shares, and none recommend selling;
→ The price forecast for GOOGL shares is $203.97 in 12 months (+12.20% from yesterday's close).
However, it's possible that GOOGL's price forecasts may worsen if the blue median line is broken by the bears.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GOOG: Risk for HFT Gap on EarningsThe mighty NASDAQ:GOOG has hit the Market Saturation Phase and its advertising AI is one of the primary problems. Alphabet is losing small business advertisers in droves as prices skyrocket to advertise on Google Ads while results are dismal for the advertisers.
This run down is due to speculation that is not based on financial data. It may find support at this level, but it is vulnerable to an HFT gap down. It is never a good sign to see selling a few days ahead of an earnings report. A gap up would be based on Year over Year, not quarterly improvement.
Ichimoku Watch: Google Poised to Test Kumo CloudUpcoming Earnings
Alphabet Inc. (ticker: GOOG) is scheduled to report earnings after the market closes on 23 July. The consensus Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimate for the fiscal quarter ending June 2024 is $1.85. The reported EPS for the same quarter a year prior was $1.44.
Price Action Nearing Ichimoku Cloud
The stock is poised to register its first losing month (down -2.2% month to date) following four consecutive winning months. Price action has dipped beneath the Conversion Line (blue at $185.76) and the Base Line (red at $184.47); of note, the former has yet to cross beneath the latter (which can be viewed as a bearish signal).
Price movement also remains below the Lagging Span (dark green at $179.39), a bullish signal, and the stock is nearing the Ichimoku Cloud, which has been in play since the Leading Span A (light green at $185.11) crossed above the Leading Span B (light orange at $179.54) at the beginning of May. The Ichimoku Cloud can offer traders a dynamic support area in uptrends.
Another observation worth highlighting is the support level located within the Ichimoku Cloud at $173.05.
Price Direction?
In light of the visible uptrend, a test of the Ichimoku Cloud could be a factor that prompts buying. Buyers will also likely want to have support tested at $173.05 and also the Conversion Line cross back above the Base Line (by the time the price reaches the Ichimoku Cloud, the Conversion Line would have crossed below the Base Line); traders use an upward crossover as additional strength confirming the Ichimoku Cloud.
GOOGL Alphabet Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought GOOGL at the start of the reversal:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GOOGL Alphabet prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 200usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $7.40.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
🐲 The Roaring FAANG. Five Big Tech Stocks That Move The MarketFAANG is an acronym that stands for five major, highly successful U.S. tech companies: Meta (formerly Facebook), Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google.
FAANG stocks' performance has a substantial effect on the overall market and comprises 15% of the S&P500 Index SP:SPX .
If you follow the financial or business news, you may have seen or heard the term FAANG thrown around. No, it's not a misspelling or an animal's roar. It's an acronym that stands for five big companies — some might say the big companies — in the high-tech industry.
The FAANG quintet consists of Meta (formerly Facebook), Amazon , Apple, Netflix and Google (Alphabet as an official corporate name).
These corporations — all American, but with a global presence — are not only household names, they're financial behemoths. Their combined market capitalization is over $4 trillion. The blue-chip stocks of the tech sector, they collectively make up 15% of the Standard & Poor's 500 SP:SPX (an index of the largest public companies in the US). So they represent not only one of the US' most significant industries, but a sizable chunk of the US stock market itself.
The origins of FAANG
FAANG actually began as FANG. The origin of the acronym has been attributed to Jim Cramer, the financial TV host and co-founder of TheStreet.com. Known for his slangy abbreviations and catchy phrases, Cramer coined the term in 2013 to represent four tech stocks with outsized market appreciation. Cramer believed that these companies belonged together because they are all high-growth stocks that share the common threads of digitization and the web.
Cramer's original term was just FANG — it didn't initially include Apple. The company joined the ranks in 2017, reflecting the growth of internet services (iCloud, Apple Music, Apple Pay) to its revenues.
So the acronym became FAANG, and it's remained so.
The five stocks of FAANG
They need no introduction: The five stocks of FAANG are all familiar brands, whose products and services permeate our lives daily. They are also American corporate success stories — each has seen its stock shares experience triple-digit growth since 2015, and year-to-year as well.
👉 Meta ( NASDAQ:META ) is the social media maestro, owner of Instagram, WhatsApp, and its Facebook website. It has returned more than 190% over the past 12 months, and it is a # 1 over all S&P500 Index components with that amazing result.
👉 Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), the sole product manufacturer of the group, with more than 36% yearly performance.
👉 Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), the world's largest e-store, has returned more than 65% over the past 12 months.
👉 Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ), the superpower of streaming, has returned 44% TTM.
👉 Google — parent company Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOG , NASDAQ:GOOGL ) — has a name synonymous with internet searches and services. Its GOOG shares have increased by more than 43% in 12 months.
Just to put these numbers in context: the S&P 500 has grown 17% over the past 12 months. So FAANG stocks have been at the forefront , significantly outperforming the broad market.
Twelve months performance of FX:FAANG components vs S&P500 Index
The bottom line
The main technical graph (3-day chart for FX:FAANG stock basket, introduced by @FXCM provider, with 20% inception weight for every single component) illustrates perhaps right there happens the major breakout of 52-week highs, with further projected/ targeted upside price action.
GOOGLE Top of the Channel makes pull-back likely. Buy the dip.Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) has been trading within a Channel Up since the November 03 2022 market bottom and on our last analysis (April 16, see chart below), it gave us an excellent buy entry, hitting eventually our 175.00 Target:
Right now the price is more than half-way on the new Bullish Leg but has come very close to the Channel's top (Higher Highs trend-line). Based on the June 07 2023 Top and the previous major Bullish Leg, we might get a pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), before going for the final Higher High.
As as result, we are now willing to buy only after a 1D MA50 contact and Target $210.00, which will represent a +37.60% rise from the recent Higher Low, similar to the Bullish Leg of 2023.
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Alphabet's Bullish Breakout: A Signal for InvestorsIn a recent surge, Alphabet (NASDAQ) displayed a large green candle breaking past previous resistance, indicating a strong upward momentum. This candle pattern, observed amidst higher trading volumes, suggests a robust buyer interest that could drive further gains in Google stocks. This trend underscores a potentially lucrative phase for investors watching the tech giant.
Alphabet - It is just a textbook company!NASDAQ:GOOGL has been one of the best performing stocks over the previous decade.
The most profitable stocks are the ones which trade under the radar. And Alphabet (Google) is definitely one of these stocks which is simply trending higher, providing textbook trading opportunities and not a "hype" stock. Slow and steady wins the race, but you have to be careful that you don't miss your chances. After a retest of the breakout level, you can enter a long trade.
Levels to watch: $150
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading