GOOGL Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-17GOOGL Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-17)
Below is our integrated analysis for GOOGL weekly options trading based on the current options data and the multiple model reports:
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Comprehensive Summary of Each Model’s Key Points
• Grok/xAI Report – Observes that although the 5‐minute chart shows a hint of short‐term bullishness, the daily chart is clearly bearish (price below the 10 EMA and RSI around 41) and news catalysts (antitrust concerns) add further downside bias. – Highlights a significant concentration of put open interest around the $150 strike and recommends buying the $150 put at a premium of about $0.24 with an entry at open. – Suggested profit target at roughly a 50% premium increase and a stop loss if the premium falls by about 25% (or if the price fails to break key resistance).
• Claude/Anthropic Report – Confirms a moderately bearish bias with price trading below all key daily EMAs and negative regulatory news intensifying the downside. – Points to the heavy open interest in the 150 puts and emphasizes that although max pain is at $155 (a theoretical pull toward higher prices), the aggressive negative catalyst trumps this signal. – Recommends a put trade with guidelines for profit-taking (roughly a 100% premium gain) and a 50% premium stop-loss; entry to be made at market open.
• Gemini/Google Report – Notes the strong bearish daily setup (price clearly below the 10/50/200 averages and near key supports around $150) combined with negative antitrust headlines. – While acknowledging some short-term consolidation on the 5-minute chart, the report favors a bearish play and selects the $150 put (even though its premium of $0.24 is a bit below the “ideal” $0.30–$0.60 range). – Recommends entering at open with specific targets (aiming for around a 100% return on premium or an exit if the underlying fails to break levels) and strict stop-loss discipline.
• Llama/Meta Report – Summarizes that the technicals (including MACD and RSI on both timeframes) and high volatility (VIX ~32.64) combine for a moderately bearish setup. – The heavy put open interest at $150 further reinforces this view. – Recommends buying the $150 put at market open with a modest profit target (around a 50% gain on premium) and a stop-loss if the underlying rallies above key resistance levels.
• DeepSeek Report – Emphasizes that despite the max pain at $155, the technical breakdown below key moving averages and significant negative news support a bearish trade. – Recommends buying weekly (0DTE) $150 puts at the current premium of $0.24, with exit parameters tied to breaching immediate support or achieving a 50% gain in premium. – Notes that risk management is crucial given the 0DTE nature and high volatility.
────────────────────────────── 2. Areas of Agreement and Disagreement Between Models
• Agreement: – All models share a moderately bearish outlook driven by a combination of: ○ Price performance below key moving averages and declining daily RSI. ○ Negative news catalysts (antitrust issues and breakup concerns). ○ Heavy put open interest at the $150 strike, aligning with technical support. – Each model favors a single-leg, naked put strategy on GOOGL weekly expirations, with an entry at market open.
• Disagreement: – There is some variation in the selection of profit target and stop loss levels: ○ Grok/xAI and DeepSeek lean toward a profit target near a 50% premium gain and a tighter stop loss, while Claude/Anthropic and Gemini reference a slightly larger profit target (up to 100% gain) paired with a 50% stop loss. – There is a mild conflict with the max pain theory (which is bullish at $155) versus the consensus technical and news story indicating further downside. However, all models agree that the negative catalysts outweigh the theoretical pull toward max pain.
────────────────────────────── 3. Conclusion and Trade Recommendation
• Overall Market Direction Consensus: – The integrated view is moderately bearish. Although intraday charts hint at short-term consolidation, the dominant daily technicals, high volatility, and strongly negative news set the stage for further downside pressure.
• Recommended Trade: – We recommend buying a single-leg, naked put option. – Selected Instrument: GOOGL weekly option with a $150 strike (0DTE expiring on 2025-04-17). – Premium: The current ask is $0.24 per contract. Although this is slightly below the ideal range, the risk/reward profile is favorable given the strong technical and sentiment bias. – Entry Timing: Enter at market open. – Profit Target: Aim for a premium increase to approximately $0.36 (a ~50% gain). – Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss around $0.12 (roughly a 50% reduction in premium), or exit if the underlying rallies decisively above the intraday resistance levels (around $152). – Confidence Level in the Recommendation: Approximately 70%.
• Key Risks and Considerations: – The max pain level at $155 could introduce some intraday upward pressure. – High implied volatility (VIX at 32.64) means rapid moves could quickly hit stop-loss triggers. – The 0DTE nature of the option calls for strict monitoring; if GOOGL fails to break below key support levels early on, exit the position promptly. – Overall market reversals or unexpected news can rapidly change the trade dynamics.
────────────────────────────── 4. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
{ "instrument": "GOOGL", "direction": "put", "strike": 150.00, "expiry": "2025-04-17", "confidence": 0.70, "profit_target": 0.36, "stop_loss": 0.12, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.24, "entry_timing": "open" }
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
Googleshort
GOOGLE: Where are they going after earnings? Let's talk about itWHERE WILL GOOGLE GO AFTER THEY REPORT EARNINGS ON TUESDAY?!
NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:GOOGL
In this video, we will review 3 key items that give us the best probability of predicting where they will go.
1⃣ See if it meets my "High Five Setup" trade strategy
2⃣ Why it's BUY according to my Valuation Metric Tool (6/6 score) I WANT A DIP!
3⃣ Look aHEAD to find out 👇
Video analysis 4/5. Stay tuned!🔔
Like ❤️ Follow 🤳 Share 🔂
Is this MAG7 name finally going to play catchup to its siblings? Drop a comment below.
Not financial advice.
GOOGLE SHORT TRADE OUTLOOK ON EARNINGS REPORT DAY OCT.29, 2024NASDAQ:GOOGL
WEEKLY FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
>P/E Ratio (Quarterly Lookback): Google's P/E is currently at around 25, signaling overvaluation (typically anything equal or above 25 is considered overvalued).
>Correlation: Both Google's P/E ratio and value compared to Treasury bonds are flashing overvalued signals.
DAILY OUTLOOK:
>Short-term and long-term value correlations vs T-bonds and P/E ratios suggest the stock may remain overbought until the upcoming earnings report, which could act as a catalyst.
>Election Year Seasonality is strongly bearish as well.
TECHNICAL INSIGHT:
>GOOG may pull back to fill a previous price gaps before slowing down.
Stay sharp, traders! 🎯 #GOOG #ShortTrade #MarketAnalysis #Investing
Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. It reflects general market fundamentals and personal speculation. Always do your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Trade at your own risk.
Antitrust Threat Looms Over Google, Shares Could Plummet by 10%!Google's dominance might be ending. A U.S. judge has decided that the company's control over search is unfair competition. This could lead to Alphabet, Google's parent company, being split up and a major change in online advertising. A new era of search could be coming, as the internet's main player may soon lose its power.
Technical Analysis
The share price has surged by over 190% since hitting its lowest point during the Covid-19 crash.
Following a previous peak of $152, the stock experienced a significant drop and subsequently entered a prolonged phase of consolidation.
After approximately 2.5 years of this price stabilization, the stock finally broke through its prior resistance in April 2024.
This significant breakthrough resulted in an impressive surge, propelled the price to a new all-time high of $193.
However, the stock price faced considerable resistance at that level, resulted in a decline and eventually breaking down of its upward-trending parallel channel.
The stock is likely to experience a sharp decline of about 10%, finding support somewhere between $132 and $131.
GOOGLE SHORT TIMING? reached important resistance level?
we could see that it is rebounding from an overall downtrend market.
And it's closed to the resistance area of previous lows, which shares the same level with the downtrend line, double confirmed the importance of this resistance area.
So if it be rejected by this area, and start to showing sell signals like bearish engulfing pattern etc, the price may continue to drop.
GOOGLE $GOOG - Feb. 26th, 2024GOOGLE NASDAQ:GOOG - Feb. 26th, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $144.50 - $154.80
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $139.60 - $144.50
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $131.15 - $139.60
Weekly: Bullish
Daily: DNT
4H: Bearish
The zone around $140 has been supported to the bullish side three times since Jan. 17th, 2024. Currently price is back at the zone after creating bearish structure on the 4h timeframe with strong downside momentum. Price has respected the level at $146.10 to the bearish side and broke below the $144.50 on the daily timeframe which is the start of the DNT zone and the potential start of entry into the bearish zone.
Bulls can look for rejections up from the $140 area or breaks above the $144 level/structure (daily timeframe). Bears can look for continuation below the $140 area or a pullback and rejection of the $144 level (daily timeframe).
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
"Google Stock Approaches 2022 Highs"Google Stock Analysis: Testing Recent Highs and Channel Patterns for Trading Opportunities
In the dynamic world of stock trading, few companies command the attention and admiration quite like Google. With its innovative products, expansive ecosystem, and formidable market presence, Google has long been a favorite among investors seeking long-term growth opportunities. As we venture further into 2022, Google's stock is once again in the spotlight as it tests recent highs from January 1st, 2022, signaling potential opportunities for astute traders.
In recent trading sessions, Google's stock has been steadily climbing, inching closer to the levels it last reached at the beginning of the 2022. This upward momentum is notable, as it suggests renewed investor confidence and optimism in the company's prospects. Furthermore, technical analysis reveals that Google is currently stepping upward in a channel pattern, with the stock testing channel support along the way.
For traders eyeing potential opportunities in Google's stock, the current channel pattern provides valuable insights. If Google manages to maintain support within the channel, it could signal a continuation of the upward trend, presenting opportunities for long positions or holding existing positions. However, a break below channel support would warrant caution, potentially indicating a short-term reversal in momentum.
At the time of writing, one key level to watch is $143.85, which serves as a crucial point of interest within the channel. If Google's stock holds above this level, it could present an attractive entry point for traders looking to capitalize on a breakout towards the upside of the channel. A successful break through this resistance level could pave the way for further gains, with potential targets in the range of $165 to $170.
It's important to note that trading opportunities in Google's stock should be approached with caution and careful risk management. While the technical setup appears promising, market conditions can be unpredictable, and unforeseen developments could impact the stock's trajectory. Therefore, traders should consider setting stop-loss orders and closely monitoring price action to mitigate potential risks.
In conclusion, Google's stock is currently testing recent highs from the beginning of the year, with promising signs of upward momentum and a channel pattern indicating potential trading opportunities. By keeping a close eye on key support and resistance levels, traders can position themselves to capitalize on potential breakouts while managing risk effectively. As always, prudent decision-making and disciplined execution are essential for success in the dynamic world of stock trading.
GOOG Rising Wedge Here is a simple rising wedge pattern on google with bear gap resistance above you dont want to get caught guessing the top because there is no way to tell exactly when price will reverse. Just react and catch the move when it presents itself. Expect to enter after either A) Gap Down, B) intraday Head and Shoulders or C) intraday bear flags.
GOOG - Why a 25% drop Is lurking in Google StockSometimes live can be simple.
This trade is simple to me.
Let's examine it:
1. Over all Indexes are not favoring the long side.
2. Price reached the Center line and get pushed back.
3. The Divergence in the RSI is significant.
...and the rest is Risk & Money management.
My stop goes a couple points above the last high.
But I probably play it with Options and give me at least 100 days to expiry (DTE).
Simple enough? §8-)
Happy trading folks.
Alphabet (GOOGL) -> Following The NasdaqMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Alphabet.
Just 9 months ago Alphabet stock perfectly retested major previous resistance which was turned support and in confluence with a retest of the 0.618 fib level we saw a rally of 60%.
Considering that Alphabet is now retesting the channel resistance it is quite likely that we will see a short term drop before I do expect new all time highs on Google stock.
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I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
GOOGL with a strong upward breakthrough this weekGOOGL with a strong upward breakthrough this week
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Google stock over the past year. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section at the end of 2022. As shown in the figure, Google stock tested the bottom of the chart against the 2.618 position of the golden section three times in July and last week, with a strong upward breakthrough this week! The recent pressure level of Google stock is the 3.000 level at the bottom of the graph above the golden section, which is likely to suppress the market's rise! Google stock is likely to significantly retreat in the future, at least testing the 2.000 position of the golden section in the chart!
Google seems to be falling along with other Fintech and giants as we can see google is consolidating at its ATH so there are good chances that, this ticker falls down and retraces down to its preview supports
as we know there are some fundamental news also going on about some anti-republican activity and censorship on YouTube and other domains in this company so we can have some fall speculation on this company for a while.
please comment your opinions
Google vs BingIf you haven`t sold GOOGL here:
Or bought it here:
Then you should know that the investment by Microsoft in OpenAI signifies a significant boost to their artificial intelligence capabilities. OpenAI's advanced technologies and expertise in AI research and development could potentially enhance the capabilities of Microsoft's Bing search engine. With access to powerful AI algorithms and resources, Bing may be able to offer more personalized and accurate search results, thereby attracting users who seek a more refined search experience.
Furthermore, Microsoft has been making strategic moves to expand its presence in various sectors, including cloud computing and enterprise services. By integrating Bing into its ecosystem of products and services, Microsoft can leverage its existing user base and partnerships to promote Bing as a viable alternative to Google.
In recent years, Google has faced scrutiny over data privacy concerns and antitrust issues, which could create an opportunity for Bing to gain traction among users seeking more privacy-focused alternatives. Additionally, Microsoft has been actively investing in marketing and advertising efforts to raise awareness about Bing and improve its market positioning.
While Google currently holds a dominant position in the search engine market, the landscape is dynamic and subject to change. If Microsoft successfully leverages its partnership with OpenAI to enhance Bing's capabilities, coupled with strategic marketing initiatives, it could potentially chip away at Google's market share over time.
If I had to buy some options, that would be the following puts:
2024-1-19 expiration date
$105 strike price
$3.25 premium
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
GooGusd are you rdy for buy 🧨👌❤The big company Google has been using the downward trend of gold for days and for now it will have an upward trend for its shareholders.
Dear Americans who are Google shareholders, do not hold your shares until the price of $152.10.
The downward trend of Google will start from the price of $152.10, and for a long time, Google will sink into financial stagnation, and the expected decline for Bill Gates is $69.
These days, Bill Gates will sell Google shares as much as he can and will start buying when Google shares fall.
Next target to $41.09 for Alphabet ?Here is my point of view about Google.
Based on my Elliott Wave, the bear trend could come back the next week (April,17) after the optimistic Bull run from March,13.
We reach the the Fibonacci Ret 0.382% and the ii circle degree seems to be done after a complex correction in ABCDE.
And about the Time the Ret and Projection both are pointing April, 6 and 10.
My concern now it's the indicator DT Oscillator who seem to be not ready for a reversal now.. so it's might be sideway to down the week of April,17 and wait 1 more week to be ready for a reversal during the week April,24.
If this post was useful to you, do not forget to like and comment.❤️ 🙏
Kindly,
TradingX30
Y.F
The End of an Era: Is Google's Reign Over?I believe that right now is an incredible time to short googles stock, The challenges facing it over the next few years could topple its position as an industry leader.
Current price: 105.35
Target 1: 90.55 (-14%)
Target 2: 74.50 (-29%)
The regulatory scrutiny that Google is facing is a significant threat to the company's future. If the company is found guilty of antitrust violations, it could face substantial fines and restrictions on its business practices, which could lead to a loss of market share and revenue. Moreover, the negative publicity generated by these investigations could harm Google's brand image and reputation.
In addition to regulatory scrutiny, Google is also facing increased competition from Microsoft's backed venture OpenAI. OpenAI is a major player in the artificial intelligence (AI) space, and is rapidly expanding its capabilities in natural language processing, computer vision, and other areas. As Google relies heavily on AI for many of its products and services, such as search and Google Assistant, increased competition in this area could pose a significant threat to the company's market position.
These challenges have already had an impact on Google's stock price, which has fallen from its all-time high of $150.70 in November 2021 to its current level of $105.30. This decline is likely due in part to concerns about regulatory scrutiny and competition from OpenAI.
Looking ahead, it is difficult to predict with certainty what the future holds for Google. However, it is clear that the company will need to address the regulatory concerns and navigate the increasingly competitive landscape if it hopes to maintain its market position and continue to grow. If it can successfully address these challenges and continue to innovate and adapt, Google could emerge from this period of uncertainty even stronger than before. However, if it fails to do so, its stock price could continue to decline, and its market position could be threatened.
Google what's next?If $GOOG does not implement, in its search engine, within the first week of March 2023, a competitor to ChatGPT, then IMO, their revenue will hurt in Q2 of 2023, and in my estimation, their Q1 2023 revenue will also be a disappointment. The stock price could be headed to $71.20 in the near future.
Alphabet fakeout after fear of AI update target $90 W Formation formed on Alphabet which then had a major fakeout
There was a test of the 200MA which Failed to break above and dropped.
Target $90
With Google and Alphabet trying to combat with the new challenge of creating a better CHAT GPT, it seems like the first version has failed.
There were many errors and false answers.
They also called the Ex CEOS and management to try and create similar versions through BING and BARD.
This caused fear with investors and lead to a $100 billion drop in market value.
Overall I think Google will find a way to replace Chat GPT or integrate the technology eventually. These are short term blips before the upside.
Right now we can remain bearish as the charts don't lie, but the price will need to drop below $90 in order to have a new analysis for downside.
I'll keep you updated as always.
Google - Bearish SentimentPrice broke structure at 100.29 to create equal highs at 107.84. Then price gave us a BEARISH GAP to take out ORDERS at 102.09. The BEARISH GAP that was created must be filled before price can drop significantly.
I expect price to fill the BEARISH GAP and take out the EQUAL HIGHS at 107.84. The 113 price point is where price will go. From there a major dip will happen. This will take out the ENGINEERED LIQUIDITY ($).
I am EXTREMELY BEARISH on Google!!!
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Price action is KING!!
GOOG Alphabet Options Ahead of Earnings | Last Quarter of GrowthAs you can see, the last chart was pretty accurate:
Now I think this year we will see Google losing ground in the advertising industry.
The Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit Tuesday against Google alleging the company of abusing its dominance over smaller rivals by operating like an illegal monopoly.
MSFT Microsoft bought a 49% stake in OpenAI, who owns CHatGPT, that ca really be a rival to Google in answering questions.
As a matter of fact i am using ChatGPT more than Google search right now.
So i believe this is the last quarter of growth for GOOG / GOOGL, as you can see in the chat, because Q4 was not impacted by ChatGPT so much.
Looking at the GOOG Alphabet options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $100 strike price Calls with
2023-2-10 expiration date for about
$2.66 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.