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What I Expect Through The New Year Absent A Government Shutdown.Traders, minus a government shutdown, I do expect another altcoin pump. However, the possibility of a shutdown is throwing a big wrench into my thesis. We'll talk about how price action would look in both scenarios as well as discuss the new crypto cycle rotation. You should get to know this new rotation to remain most successful in your trading. As always, we'll start with the DXY, VIX, SPY, and NVDA and discuss future direction and what it means for our crypto space.
COINBASE:SOLUSD
by stewdamus
2
30-Year US Gov't Bond Yields since 1977Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside those boxes: 1. 1987 Stock Market Crash on collapsing USDollar, hiked capital gains taxes starting in 1988, trade wars with Germany, S&L crisis brewing from 1986 real estate tax law change, and Congressional moves to eliminate interest rate deductions on takeovers. 2. Orange County Bankruptcy 3. Great Financial Crisis "GFC" - massive deleveraging of the banking industry forcing asset prices down in a collapse. 4. Covid reaction by Gov't to shut economy down and stimulate spending and handouts to keep economy afloat 5. Current over-reaction to over-stimulation during lockdowns and supply chain issues.
TVC:TYX
by timwest
8
#US10Y Yields perhaps a little extended here short term?Got to be brave trying to run infront of this steamroller, but we are starting to see signs of bearish divergence where price(yield) is making higher highs, not confirmed by the RSI and MACD which are currently making lower highs. This could be warning of a short term reprieve in yields which could be bullish risk assets. However, given the current environment with conflict in the middle east, one has to becareful
TVC:US10YShort
by MarcoOlevano
US Govt Real Debt is Down Last 3 YearsThe "real value of the US Gov't Debt" is a different way of looking at our situation through rose-colored glasses, but it is a fair analysis. If we "adjust the debt level for inflation" as measured by the CPI Index (All Urban Consumers Index) from the beginning of the series back in 1966, you will have a line that is grinding SIDEWAYS since October 2020 at a reading of $105.9 Billion. The latest number was the July reading at $105.1 Billion which is a slight decline. All of this sounds like "hocus-pocus" but it is a fact that inflation makes it easier for the Gov't to pay off its debt in the new "cheaper valued" dollars. The dollar is the same, only there are far more of them floating around in the system so each of them is worth less. If we analyze how the US debt has increased relative to other countries' debt, we could also see how we are doing. The financial market's are open for analysts to find discrepancies between the value of various currencies and over time, the market adjusts for the amount of currency being created in an economy. We can look at the TVC:DXY or US Dollar Index to see how the US economy has fared versus its trading partners. The Dollar Index is weighted for the amount of trading between the various currencies. I can follow up on that analysis in the next chart. For now, we can at least see an optimistic chart about the actual "REAL" amount of debt that the US Gov't (which is US, the taxpayers) has over the last 3 years. Covid spending and lockdown payments to keep the economy afloat certainly launched us up into the stratosphere FIRST but since 2020 that debt has been in a sideways pattern.
FRED:GFDEBTN
by timwest
6
USDJPY Short? BoJ Intervention and US Gov Shutdown RisksOn Monday, the USDJPY dollar hit an 11-month peak, a move triggered by the Federal Reserve's recent signaling of another potential interest rate hike and an intention to maintain higher rates for longer. Then, (counter to expectations) the yen faced pressure when the Bank of Japan, on the preceding Friday, decided to maintain its ultra-low interest rates and its commitment to support the economy until sustainable inflation reaches its 2% target. This decision indicated that the central bank was in no hurry to phase out its extensive stimulus program. Traders had been looking for some kind of hint as to when the BoJ would start to dial back its support. Wishful thinking, I guess. The Japanese yen is currently hovering near the 150 mark, a level some traders consider critical to prompt intervention by Japanese authorities, similar to actions taken last year. But can the USDJPY even reach 150 with a potential US shutdown on the horizon? Starting on October 1, hundreds of thousands of US government workers face furloughs if Congress fails to pass a funding bill. The House is set to reconvene after last week's recess, aiming to continue budget negotiations. If a federal government shutdown occurs, the publication of crucial US economic data, such as employment and inflation report vital for policymakers and traders, will be indefinitely suspended too. So maybe the downside risk is ever-present even without the threat of BoJ intervention? 145.164 is the immediate support that might fall to the bears. 138.312 is the next target, but can a US government shutdown force the price down to this level over one day like an intervention might? Maybe this level is an intermediate term risk rather than short term?
by BlackBull_Markets
$EVLV Bullish (National Security)As politicians use fragile child lives as a trojan horse for their orwellian gun laws- the answer to the problem still remains clear- metal detectors. How many more children will get fish in a barreled'd until some safety measures are put into place. Not LA, not Chicago, they already have proper safety measures- this needs to be a nationwide child safety movement with government sponsorship. There is nothing more important than our youth, especially Ukraine when it comes to the B word (billions). If anyones aware of any other stocks like this let me know. I think the whole AI thing is a waste of time and also a trojan horse but nonetheless. America first. www.businesswire.com WALTHAM, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Evolv Technology (NASDAQ: EVLV), the leader in AI-based weapons detection security screening, today announced that Peter George, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer and Mark Donohue, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, are scheduled to present at the Credit Suisse Technology Conference on Tuesday, November 29, 2022 in Scottsdale, Arizona. The Company will webcast the presentation live at approximately 5:05 p.m. Eastern Time. All interested parties can access the webcast live on the Company's investor relations website at ir.evolvtechnology.com. Evolv is committed to creating weapons-free zones across the world. The Evolv Express® system, which uses a powerful combination of artificial intelligence, advanced sensors, and comprehensive analytics, screens nearly 750 thousand people each day– and as many as 1.25 million a day on weekends. Since January 2022, Evolv has detected and stopped over 30 thousand guns and 27 thousand knives, excluding law enforcement, from entering its customers’ venues, including schools, performing arts centers, casinos, stadiums, arenas, hospitals and other workplaces. These numbers represent approximately a third of customers who are currently tagging the threats by utilizing Evolv’s analytics platform, called Evolv Insights. Partnering with customers, Evolv Express® systems have stopped potential mass casualties in areas that are intended to be weapons-free. In the past few months alone, two incidents have taken place where the Evolv Express® systems prevented a loaded gun from entering a hospital and a school where, in each case, it was believed there was intent to do harm and law enforcement was engaged. In the six months ended June 30, 2022, the Company has added nearly 100 new customers, including Gillette Stadium, Hard Rock International, AO Arena, Distrito T-Mobile, Dollywood Theme Park and Champaign Unit 4 School District. Further, Evolv has now screened over 350 million people, second only to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Transportation Security Administration (TSA). Evolv has deployed over 1,100 of its Express systems in iconic venues throughout North America and the United Kingdom as well as in schools, hospitals, and public spaces, securing its position as the leading provider of AI-based concealed weapons screening technology in use today. “At Evolv, we believe that safety is a basic human right,” said Peter George, CEO of Evolv Technology. “Over 350 million people is an important step in our quest to keep people safe where they gather, as is stopping over 50 thousand weapons from entering the places where they work, learn, play and live. We partner with our customers to create weapons-free zones and, we believe, provide peace of mind to visitors and staff as well as to the community at large. If we can prevent or deter one potential loss of life, we are doing our job.” The Company achieved year over year growth in the following measures during the six months ended June 30, 2022: 152% year-over-year increase in new customers 366% year-over-year increase in total people screened 193% year-over-year increase in Evolv Express units deployed news.yahoo.com A new multi-million-dollar safety plan has just been approved for some Duval County Schools. The school board voted yes to spend almost $9 million on metal detectors for all high schools. For Duval County Public Schools board members, it was a quick yes vote with all 7 board members in favor. >>> STREAM ACTION NEWS JAX LIVE <<< Duval County Public Schools said this was necessary because it adds an extra layer of security to your child’s classroom. The metal detectors made by Evolv’s Technology Express will be in all 19 DCPS high schools, costing the district $8.7 million dollars. It’ll be paid for with capitol money. DCPS Chairman Darryl Willie explains why the county is focusing on high schools. “A lot of the time when we do find weapons on campus, it’s generally in our high schools,” Willie said. RELATED: Duval school board to vote on $8.7 million metal detector contract for high schools Tuesday As far as Duval’s elementary and middle schools DCPS Police Chief Greg Burton said officers will continue to do security checks with wands. In addition to the metal detectors there will be cameras, extra lighting, fences and badges required to enter and exit the building. DCPS thinks these metal detectors are good for a number of reasons. One being that students won’t have to empty their pockets or bags while being screened. Instead, these metal detectors can actually show where exactly a weapon might be located on a body.
NASDAQ:EVLVLong
by creengrack
5
ENVX - ARMY Contract Maybe Undervalued* Meant to put this on the ENOVIX thread* A Couple things to note is Enovix has been on a steady rise and has had bullish catalyst released. It's on the hook to hit the next leg. Lame pun for the Hook showing on the chart pattern " Enovix said the agreement moves the program toward full volume production. The cells will be used to build pre-production CWB packs. The advanced silicon battery company said the deal is for it to produce commercial cells for use within U.S. Army soldier's central power source, called the Conformal Wearable Battery. " - MarketBeat This launched the stock price to $19 ON JULY 6TH. SPY being on an extreme bull run and new 52 week high ENVX following a similar pattern. ENVX, RSI on close to oversold, Williams showing the stock is curling. ENVX is currently aligned with SPY and have the same exact pattern It may run up with SPY so long as it remains bullish. I Expect it to touch at least $25 but theres a lot of turbulence up there as thats where it's been consolidating in the past. General consensus PT is $38. ENVX has an average rating of buy and price targets ranging from $15 to $100, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ. Trade Responsible, #TradeTheWave
NASDAQ:ENVXLong
by FinesseTheWave
Biden had challenge debt ceilingVery first time in history of President of USA had challenged the debt ceiling. The ceiling is about 31.5 Trillion.. but now. Oxen wants to challenge it. Overall Government is running out of Money, 2nd Government will Shutdown before month of June & finally they will go into Default and will put us a mild Recession. Quite obvious Mild Recession will happen this year and will last 2 years which will be 2025. unemployment will rise of 10% and GDP as well. This is a big Warning for all US Americans! Please be prepared and save money! Confirmed: Mild Recession is coming, Government will run out of money and will be put into default because of raising the debt ceiling because congress won’t agree to raise it up. NAS100 will go lower under 10000 area, US30 will go lower even lower to the ground than we ever seen as also will as SPX500. Cryptos will finish the retrace correction and will forcefully crash and downturn to get to its real bottom of the markets. FYI: the bear market is back and taking over ; buyers will go Short and bulls won’t go strong as ever because of what happened from the Feds and the Gov. The bull market won’t return until around 2024 or before into year of 2025
FX:NAS100
by JoyBoyVegae
2
US Government Bonds 10YR Yield LONGUS Government Bonds 10YR Yield. Time-frame = 1 month. In 2005-2007 (red circle) - a double top was built (determined automatically by my script) from which the downward movement began for further accumulation. 2009-2019 (green rectangle) - long-term accumulation (balance). 2019-2022 (blue circle) - responsive activity (long entry by key players). 2022-2023 long to the upper limit of the balance. The last 3 months - a retest to one of the key balance levels. 2023 - expect further upward movement towards the 5.000% area (towards the upper border of the double top)
TVC:US10YLong
by ZenFunds
3
DOGE Reacts to Twitter Acquisition News - Is It Sustainable?Dogecoin had a very good week this week, probably in reaction to the news of the Twitter acquisition that happened as of today. It's still too early to tell, but some reasons to exercise caution regarding the company, especially given its new owner's past history. As we head into a recession, what worked previously may not work now. Also forgot to mention that Jack Dorsey started a new social media company Bluesky, which may directly compete with the idea of social media Web3. Can the Web2 moguls from an earlier era migrate successfully to Web3? Time will tell.
BINANCE:DOGEUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
EKI ENERGY SERVICES. its a great model business. as the new future is of EV sector, EVa vehicles and so on.., this stock will come in demand with many other automobile making company, to check their carbon offsetting. government will too focus on this sector, too make the the country pollution free. currently, now its in demand sone(support level), it should rise. good for swing trading. and the best part of stock is- it recently launched its IPO, ipo was subscribed in a great manner, and within some time itself, it gave a good divident along with a stock split.
BSE:EKILong
by raghavchoudhary2016
GEO Group: BullishThe War on Fraud People Will go to Jail Government Expenditures are being reduced, however, by giving contracts to the GEO group, the government is bullish on this company. Fundamentally, net income and net revenue increase, bullish, especially in a time when the US dollar is increasing in value. Michael Burry's only stock position is GEO group I see no resistance or walls until at least $20 price levels, easy 100% return on investment. By buying shares, I do not need extra exposure which I typically use option plays for. I will sit on this play. I typically am never this long on something, but I truly believe that in this age of BTC and fraud from people who think the IRS are fools, will be surprised when the feds come knocking for the money. If the fed needs to reduce the money supply, it will do so by any means necessary. Also, like fundamentals, and financials, fully agree with this being way too undervalued. Just for the record I think EV cars will fail because they have zero towing capacity, likely will look into Hydrogen power instead.
NYSE:GEOLong
by kibakilla33
New Study Shows 61% Of People Want Governments To Legalize BTCGiven the growing interest in crypto adoption as a legal tender, it’s not shocking that many participants will wish to legalize bitcoin. The level of support for crypto was evident in a new survey conducted by The Economist. This survey aimed to know the number of people who want their governments to legalize crypto. The number of respondents was 14,000, and the result showed that 61% want a legalized bitcoin and other cryptos for transactions. Another aspect of the survey looked at the support for CBDC. The result also showed 61% support for governments to issue the financial product. One of the things that the researchers aimed to discover was whether other countries might follow El Salvador’s footsteps in legalizing crypto. Many of the participants came from developed and developing economies. The developed countries in the survey were Singapore, the USA, South Korea, the UK, and Australia. The developing economies were the Philippines, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, and Vietnam. The idea was to determine how the people from these countries view the crypto industry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by johanpedersen
1
Percent of Revenue for Interest Payments vs FEDFUNDs DifferenceThis chart shows the difference between the percent of federal tax receipts used to pay interest on the national debt (currently around 20% of tax receipts) and the FEDFUNDS rate. This difference has been growing through the years as the debt grows larger and people are less willing to buy treasuries at low interest rates. Even with historically low interest rates in the present day, the debt burden is large enough to over come this. The effect of the FEDFUNDS rate on government expenditure will continue to grow with time. Even at an effective rate of 0%, the interest payments on the debt continues to grow. There is a clear upward trend on payments despite a near 0% FEDFUNDS rate. Increasing the FEDFUNDS rate will be detrimental to US government solvency. Inflation or default seem to be the two options available. Good luck, Fed people.
FRED:A091RC1Q027SBEA
by rrmhearts
1
Percent of Revenue for Interest Payments vs FEDFUNDs RatioThis chart attempts to show the ratio between the percent of federal tax receipts used to pay interest on the national debt (currently around 20% of tax receipts) and the FEDFUNDS rate. This ratio has been growing through the years as the debt grows larger and people are less willing to buy treasuries at low interest rates. Even with historically low interest rates in the present day, the debt burden is large enough to over come this. The effect of the FEDFUNDS rate on government expenditure will continue to grow with time. If inflation keeps up and rates are raised we could see even more than 50% of tax receipts going to pay the interest on the national debt. The ratio increases with time, which means that the effect of FEDFUNDS will have more impact on government interest payments. Another way to see this impact is through looking at FRED:A091RC1Q027SBEA/FRED:W006RC1Q027SBEA-FRED:FEDFUNDS/100
FRED:A091RC1Q027SBEA
by rrmhearts
Bitcoin Breaks Resistance and Government Loses Their MindsBitcoin breaks above old support at $40,000 and is holding. This is showing that it may be ready to make another run for it. $53k is real resistance and we need to be watching that. If we break hard to the downside off $53k then we may have just triggered our next huge sell-off into that $30k range. The best thing would be $40k remains as support and I don't think it would be long before $53k is broken with our high $60k becoming the realistic resistance before we head to new highs. The government is losing their minds and are trying to sneak in some language to allow them to go after crypto exchanges. I would encourage others to go search for a recent article by Forbes talking about Gary Gensler from the SEC and a Trojan Horse such into some other regulation. This will allow them to also come after the Defi world. Not good news. Regulation is coming in one form or another but how heavy does it get? The government and the FED are not going to let this go lightly because it's about control over money supply and value. Is Bitcoin going to suffer the same consequences as gold did in 1933 when it became illegal in the US for citizens to hold? Anything is possible and I know most of you out there would be selling to avoid jail. No atheists in fox hols, bro. Let's see where this goes but make sure we stand up for what is best for all of us in this country. Freedom and competition in currency.
Long
by DefyingFinance
TOTAL MARKET CAP and some disturbing figuresPersonally I find it disgusting that there is a central entity out there with enough control over this space to pull the rug which equates to the GDP of dozens of countries within a half an hour/ with no regulation to back any of it up... Being sold Tether by some entity which has nothing to back it up while the US government does nothing to regulate it... It seems to me that the US government which actively go's around overthrowing other nations that try to issue their own currencies or nationalize their economies, is fine with some random source issuing so called stable coins... Or maybe its the corrupt US government that is behind it all... At this point there is no way a few key figures called "whales" can control the prices to the degree of pulling out 20+ nations worth of annual nominal gdp in about a half an hour.. There is no whale out there with that much money! Period This is beyond criminal.. Having 40% of an entire markets value sucked dry within 2 months is just insane and to think that people out there will continue to do it while no regulation comes in shows how messed up this world really is... 12 million starve to death every single year and this criminal market go's unchecked..
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by HighcardJezus